AFL 2015

[Nothing]

I've been putting a few dollars on the lions for top eight each week. The odds have gone from $3.75 to $3.25 in those few weeks. Am having similar thoughts as to when I stop placing the bets.

Just before you placed the first one.

 

[andrew coombs]

While we are discussing long range bets......

To back the Hawks for the premiership next year at what ever odds, let's say $4 on TAB fo $100, how much is the bet actually worth because you have had to wait so long to collect it, or is the bragging rights worth having $100 locked away for 10 months worth it, result getting up, of course.

When does it become not worth it, if that is possible. Saints @1.83 for most loses for $100. Long time to wait, or every winning bet is a good bet.

Thanks

Unless you are specking an outsider ( in double figures ) these long range markets are a bookies best friend. Unless Hawthorn start the season with eight straight crushing victories it's highly unlikely that their current quote ( or better ) wont be widely available during the 2015 season. Even if its not you can get the same value by simply backing them to finish top four and then all upping them through the finals. That way you get a choice whether to keep investing, which can come in handy if they are a struggling unit and have an away final against say Port in September.

 

[andrew coombs]

Id be wary if home teams in rd1 who were crap the year before. Eg dogs...

Put your life savings on West Coast to win at $1.51.

Have I missed something? Have the Eagles suddenly become a good, reliable team? Anyone who thinks that the West Coast Eagles, on the road, are good value at twos on is having a lend of themselves. Last year they showed about as much spine as a jelly fish. Wouldn't back them with your worst enemies money.

 

[Small Moves]

Have I missed something? Have the Eagles suddenly become a good, reliable team? Anyone who thinks that the West Coast Eagles, on the road, are good value at twos on is having a lend of themselves. Last year they showed about as much spine as a jelly fish. Wouldn't back them with your worst enemies money.

I'm obviously joking. Pull your head in.

 

[andrew coombs]

I'm obviously joking. Pull your head in.

Sorry, should have quoted to OP

 

[iluvparis]

Lol they have been heavily backed for the flag, top4 and top8... absolutely ludicrous. They have the worst list in the AFL.

I love AFL season on the Punting Board.

 

[banana_bus]

I love AFL season on the Punting Board.

Of course you disagree.

 

[ReluctantLion]

Just before you placed the first one.

Ha ha. You're probably right..

But with our new recruits and the likes of Leunberger, Rich and Staker to come back this year after injuries I'm willing to take a punt...

 

[RU_]

I'll chuck a little on Lions for top 8, could get there. Hawks for flag though imo.

 

[Cuzz09]

Have I missed something? Have the Eagles suddenly become a good, reliable team? Anyone who thinks that the West Coast Eagles, on the road, are good value at twos on is having a lend of themselves. Last year they showed about as much spine as a jelly fish. Wouldn't back them with your worst enemies money.

I was agreeing.... I was saying beware of the dogs. They could surprise. I don't think our list is that great (I go for the eagles) rd 1 is crazy

 

[Glenferrie Oval]

Unless you are specking an outsider ( in double figures ) these long range markets are a bookies best friend. Unless Hawthorn start the season with eight straight crushing victories it's highly unlikely that their current quote ( or better ) wont be widely available during the 2015 season. Even if its not you can get the same value by simply backing them to finish top four and then all upping them through the finals. That way you get a choice whether to keep investing, which can come in handy if they are a struggling unit and have an away final against say Port in September.

Hawks $1.25 to make the top 4. Hardly worth locking any cash of a minimal amount into that but sounds like a good idea to 'all up' a few bet during the year and in the finals.

 

[Rids]

I can see Sydney sliding and Freo will battle to make Top 4 so love the look of Adelaide Top 4 ($4.50) and North Melbourne at Top 4 ($3.20) to join shorter priced Hawks and Port inside the Top 4. Also like the look of Essendon for that final Top 4 spot ($5.00) but really not sure what will come out of ASADA and how it will impact the squad even if cleared. The Swans are extremely vulnerable down back and if they cop some injuries, I could easily see the wheels falling off so a value roughie would be Swans to miss the Top 8 ($7.00)

 

[toxic]

I can see Sydney sliding and Freo will battle to make Top 4 so love the look of Adelaide Top 4 ($4.50) and North Melbourne at Top 4 ($3.20) to join shorter priced Hawks and Port inside the Top 4. Also like the look of Essendon for that final Top 4 spot ($5.00) but really not sure what will come out of ASADA and how it will impact the squad even if cleared. The Swans are extremely vulnerable down back and if they cop some injuries, I could easily see the wheels falling off so a value roughie would be Swans to miss the Top 8 ($7.00)

Why will Sydney slide...
struggling to see them losing 4 games max?

 

[jaymasha]

Leaning towards bulldogs under 6.5 wins. Just a hunch, though

 

[Rids]

Why will Sydney slide...
struggling to see them losing 4 games max?

I have concerns with Sydney's defence. They have lost their most damaging defender in Malceksi and the performances of key position defenders Richards (who turns 32 this season) and Grundy (29) is on the decline. Alex Johnson may get back at some stage but but I wouldn't want to be relying too much on a guy coming off 4 knee reconstructions. Nick Smith is a quality small defender but won't hurt you which leaves a lot relying on Gary Rohan, Dane Rampe and an ageing Rhys Shaw (33 this season) to provide run from defence who whilst handy players are nowhere near the quality of the best rebounding defenders in the league.

The Swans ruck is a huge weakness with Mike Pyke going backwards last season and amongst the worst rucks going around and turning 31 this season it is unlikely he will improve. Tom Derickx and Sam Naismith don't inspire confidence that the Swans will be anything more than competitive at best through the ruck.

Buddy was massive for their forward line last season but Tippett struggles to get on the park consistently and hasn't managed a 40 goal season since 2010, Goodes is going backwards and they wouldn't want to be relying on a guy turning 35 this season and they don't have a genuine small forward (albeit I would acknowledge that McGlynn, Jetta and Parker are all capable goal kicking midfield/forwards).

The Swans have lost several handy depth players in bringing Tippett and Franklin to the club which means if things go wrong, there are going to be a lot of guys not AFL standard running out in red and white.

So I would have their defence bottom 8 and on the decline, depth bottom 8, ruck bottom 4 and whilst I would have their forward line top 4, I don't think they are a clear number 1 or 2 like many others (I would have Hawks a mile clear as number 1) and they are a Buddy injury/suspension/form drop away from dropping away from being a top 4 forward line.

Of course I have left out their midfield and I would rate Kennedy and Jack as first rate; Parker and Hannebery not far behind; Bird and Jetta as more than handy role players and McVeigh as still a very handy player albeit one that appears on the decline (dropped off in 2014 and finished with a poor finals series) and he will likely be required to go back and help out the defence in 2015. A top class midfield no doubt but there is some exceptional quality midfields out there and although I would rate Swans top 4, I don't think the gap between the Swans midfield and other contenders is all that great.

All up, I still rate the Swans best 22 maybe 2nd or 3rd in the league although I think you can make a very solid case that each of North, Port, Adelaide (who I rate highly and expect to be the bolter) and Freo would be competing with them in the group below Hawthorn. A poor run with injury (which could easily happen given the Swans age profile) and I think the Swans are far more exposed than the rest of that group and suddenly the group below - Essendon, Gold Coast, Geelong, West Coast and Richmond come into contention to jump them. Combine in a tough draw and I don't see a lot needing to go wrong for the Swans to be a serious slider in season 2015. I can comfortably see them losing 4 games and would not be at all surprised to see them lose 10-12 which would leave them struggling for a top 8 spot. So for mine - $7 is good value for the Swans to miss the Top 8.

 

[Small Moves]

I have concerns with Sydney's defence. They have lost their most damaging defender in Malceksi and the performances of key position defenders Richards (who turns 32 this season) and Grundy (29) is on the decline. Alex Johnson may get back at some stage but but I wouldn't want to be relying too much on a guy coming off 4 knee reconstructions. Nick Smith is a quality small defender but won't hurt you which leaves a lot relying on Gary Rohan, Dane Rampe and an ageing Rhys Shaw (33 this season) to provide run from defence who whilst handy players are nowhere near the quality of the best rebounding defenders in the league.

The Swans ruck is a huge weakness with Mike Pyke going backwards last season and amongst the worst rucks going around and turning 31 this season it is unlikely he will improve. Tom Derickx and Sam Naismith don't inspire confidence that the Swans will be anything more than competitive at best through the ruck.

Buddy was massive for their forward line last season but Tippett struggles to get on the park consistently and hasn't managed a 40 goal season since 2010, Goodes is going backwards and they wouldn't want to be relying on a guy turning 35 this season and they don't have a genuine small forward (albeit I would acknowledge that McGlynn, Jetta and Parker are all capable goal kicking midfield/forwards).

The Swans have lost several handy depth players in bringing Tippett and Franklin to the club which means if things go wrong, there are going to be a lot of guys not AFL standard running out in red and white.

So I would have their defence bottom 8 and on the decline, depth bottom 8, ruck bottom 4 and whilst I would have their forward line top 4, I don't think they are a clear number 1 or 2 like many others (I would have Hawks a mile clear as number 1) and they are a Buddy injury/suspension/form drop away from dropping away from being a top 4 forward line.

Of course I have left out their midfield and I would rate Kennedy and Jack as first rate; Parker and Hannebery not far behind; Bird and Jetta as more than handy role players and McVeigh as still a very handy player albeit one that appears on the decline (dropped off in 2014 and finished with a poor finals series) and he will likely be required to go back and help out the defence in 2015. A top class midfield no doubt but there is some exceptional quality midfields out there and although I would rate Swans top 4, I don't think the gap between the Swans midfield and other contenders is all that great.

All up, I still rate the Swans best 22 maybe 2nd or 3rd in the league although I think you can make a very solid case that each of North, Port, Adelaide (who I rate highly and expect to be the bolter) and Freo would be competing with them in the group below Hawthorn. A poor run with injury (which could easily happen given the Swans age profile) and I think the Swans are far more exposed than the rest of that group and suddenly the group below - Essendon, Gold Coast, Geelong, West Coast and Richmond come into contention to jump them. Combine in a tough draw and I don't see a lot needing to go wrong for the Swans to be a serious slider in season 2015. I can comfortably see them losing 4 games and would not be at all surprised to see them lose 10-12 which would leave them struggling for a top 8 spot. So for mine - $7 is good value for the Swans to miss the Top 8.

I like your insight. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds over the course of the season.

 

[X_box_X]

Cloke paying $21 with Beteasy to take most marks for the year.

I'm pretty sure it includes finals, though.

 

[GROTTO]

Reminds me of the year the Dogs opened up 1.50 against the Lions - the Lions played reasonably in pre-season and had some boom recruits and were smahed into 1.50 on game day.

Nek minnit - Dogs win by 10 goals

LOL. Lions were a lock for R1 that season.

 

[Keystone agony]

Carlton dont have a good list iluvparis it certainly is down there with the wose IMO.

Id say Melbourne and Stkilda are still horrible. Buldogs outside of their midfield/small forwards is a disgrace but then Carlton are probably not too far away.

Im not trying to stir its just my opinion.

I think we will see some of the powerhouse clubs in Carlton, Collingwood and Richmond perform pretty poorly this year, thats just my opinion. I dont rate their list. Hardwick, Buckley and Malthouse will be the talk of the nation in regards to coaching for the entire year in 2015 thats my prediction.

I see plenty of improvement from teams like Brisbane, GWS ect this year got some really good players through trade ect and progressed development of the youth brigade.

I think Gold Coast will plateau. I think their list is being over rated, isnt as good as what GWS will be. I think GC can expect a solid 7th-11th finish.

I think Port are going to be the team to beat. Hawks, Port GF.

Ill be interested to see how North Melbourne perform. Still think they lack way too much up forward and down back. God forbid what happens if LT goes back to his old ways or has an off season. Great midfield that has plenty of depth just not alot outside of ST, Atley down back and LT up forward. I think Petrie is getting on, Black/Daw dont seem like they can settle and play well for long enough consistently enough. Waite is the man, but he was the man for Carlton aswell, unfortunately he can only seem to play 10-14 games a season and most of them arent of quality.

How far can the likes of Swallow, Harvey, Wells, Ziebell, Cunnington, Higgins, Dal Santo, GoldStein take them? Even i think that midfield is also a little over rated. Harvey had close to his best season, cunnington also, Dal Santo, Goldstein couldnt do anymore. I question Swallows and Ziebells speed/skills. I think Cunnington and wells are the keys and need to have a massive season for them to do well/take another small step (ie 4th/5th position on the ladder).

 

[GROTTO]

Carlton dont have a good list iluvparis

I think Port are going to be the team to beat. Hawks, Port GF.

Good points raised Keystone.

The only issue with Port is that they do lack depth and have not been tested with a heavy injury toll since Hinkley took over. Even last year towards the latter half of the season when they had a few injuries they lost games they probably should have won. When the Hawks were decimated with injuries they were still a very competitive unit and truly have a well tested depth.

Where do you think the Crows will finish under a new coach? I think they have the list to go anywhere from 7th to 11th.

 

[MikeLike]

Cloke paying $21 with Beteasy to take most marks for the year.

I'm pretty sure it includes finals, though.

lol

 

[Sausage Legs]

I like your insight. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds over the course of the season.

I agree with the bit about Sydneys backline maybe being not up to it, but I reckon they get the most help out of anyone with their midfielders running both ways.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Lions only became firm faves after nab cup form, which means nothing. when market opened up I remember it was much more even.

 

[iluvparis]

Lions only became firm faves after nab cup form, which means nothing. when market opened up I remember it was much more even.

No idea where to find the data to disprove this but think that call is categorically WRONG

 

[Lensen]

No idea where to find the data to disprove this but think that call is categorically WRONG

i definitely remember it opening $1.90 each of 2 but no way to prove it