AFL - Preliminary Finals

[Smiling Buddha]

I'm still upset at myself for not hedging at 3/4 time last night.

Hawthorn had blown out to $3.20, I should have slapped a hungy on them and guaranteed at least $150 profit (had $50 on the Haw/Gee HT/FT @ $9).

Got a bad feeling I will do something silly tonight and put the last of my punting dough ($200) on Freo.

And if I lose that, I will officially be down for the season, despite winning hundreds and hundreds by corretly picking North matches.

 

[GROTTO]

I'm still upset at myself for not hedging at 3/4 time last night.

Hawthorn had blown out to $3.20, I should have slapped a hungy on them and guaranteed at least $150 profit (had $50 on the Haw/Gee HT/FT @ $9).

Got a bad feeling I will do something silly tonight and put the last of my punting dough ($200) on Freo.

And if I lose that, I will officially be down for the season, despite winning hundreds and hundreds by corretly picking North matches.

Given the mental fragility of the Hawks in the previous 11 games, I dont think you can blame yourself for not hedging when the Cats were leading by 20pts into the last quarter. I mean geez had Varcoe passed off to a free man 20m from goal instead of kicking it himself, the game would have gone into overtime and who knows?!

Whats the story with your bet tonight?

Plenty of betting agencies have got good promotions so I would look at those and weigh up your options.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Given the mental fragility of the Hawks in the previous 11 games, I dont think you can blame yourself for not hedging when the Cats were leading by 20pts into the last quarter. I mean geez had Varcoe passed off to a free man 20m from goal instead of kicking it himself, the game would have gone into overtime and who knows?!

That's exactly what I wanted to hear. Thank you.

Whats the story with your bet tonight?

Plenty of betting agencies have got good promotions so I would look at those and weigh up your options.

I've already got money on Freo to win the flag. I don't want to load up on them winning tonight because then if Sydney get up (which I think is unlikely but not completely out of the question) I won't have any punting money for the GF. And I'll be ****ed if I'm depositing any more this season.

 

[GROTTO]

I've already got money on Freo to win the flag. I don't want to load up on them winning tonight because then if Sydney get up (which I think is unlikely but completely out of the question) I won't have any punting money for the GF. And I'll be ****** if I'm depositing any more this season.

Look the Dockers should win tonight, there is a myriad of reasons why this team "should" win.

I think the game could be tight as thats the way Lyon has his team playing tight congested relentless footy. The dockers have only beaten 6 teams by over 40pts all of them are spud teams too. A few books have money back refunds if the team you select loses by 18pts at SB for example.

I am sure a lot of punters have Freo in any multi this weekend, so if they do choke you wont be alone.

If Sydney wins, the Hawks will go into the GF as raging favorites probably as low as $1.30 or less.

I hope the Dockers do get up, because I think they have the ability to score a major upset next week and the only bet I would entertain is maybe the Dockers 1-24

 

[Bert Ritto]

What you guys think about tonight? I think maybe a blow-out to Fremantle. Otherwise close game either win by less than 15 points. Not a bad bet with the refund option promo from SB. Thoughts?

 

[GROTTO]

What you guys think about tonight? I think maybe a blow-out to Fremantle. Otherwise close game either win by less than 15 points. Not a bad bet with the refund option promo from SB. Thoughts?

If Freo lose, it would be under 4 goals IMO. True the Dockers could blow the Swans off the park, but I could see them taking the foot of the pedal in the last, resting Fyfe and his friends.

 

[Bert Ritto]

Good point Grotto. I completely overlooked that. Laying bet now.

 

[Willzzz]

AFL Bets:

• 2U - Disposals: Bird < 22.5 @ $1.85
• 1U - DT: Hill < 72.5 @ $1.72

Craig Bird has gone 6-12 against the line for the year
He will most likely be tagging either Hill or Fyfe
Sydney will most likely lose so even less disposals for Sydney players.

Stephen Hill should get the tag. He has struggled when he has been tagged and isn't a DT scorer as he isn't a high tackler or marker.

NRL Bets:

• 3U - Melbourne Storm @ $1.38
• 2U - Melbourne Storm HT/FT @ $1.72

Don't usually bet on the NRL but I believe I can use my AFL punting knowledge in tonight's game.
Melbourne Storm have an 8-day break, Newcastle off a 6-day break.
Melbourne Storm have always responded when they come off a disappointing performance.
Melbourne Storm have an unbelievable record against Newcastle (something like the past 8).

 

[Willzzz]

My thoughts on tonight's game:

Sydney Swans are being under-rated. I think the Swans are primed to be at their peak physical form this week. They had a huge training load about 6-8 weeks out from the finals. Struggled during that period until about 2 weeks from the final. Have built nicely from the Round 23 game against Hawthorn.

The second half against the Hawks was a let-down but last week showed that their players are getting close to full fitness. (Look at the stats of Jack, O'Keefe, McVeigh, Kennedy).

Having said that, if Fremantle play at their top level, they will beat the Swans.
The Swans +21.5 could be a play.

 

[Bert Ritto]

Here is my bets for tonight.

 

[Lensen]

Luke Parker @ $51 MGS was massive overs. 2 is every chance to get a share tonight, 3 max will win it

 

[footy75]

It's all purple tonight.... freo/storm

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Luke Parker @ $51 MGS was massive overs. 2 is every chance to get a share tonight, 3 max will win it

Who with?

$15 at Luxbet.

 

[Lensen]

Who with?

$15 at Luxbet.

i got it at the tab, it's still $51 at topsport

 

[X_box_X]

Funny, cause I took the $2.08 on offer for him getting under 1.0 goals.

Luxbet amuse me. They don't even accept a measly $30 bet on Barlow at $6.50 to top Dream Team scoring. Partially accepted for $10 and odds into $5 immediately. Time to register a new account with them, I think. It's their fault when I f*ck them up again.

 

[GROTTO]

My thoughts on tonight's game:

Sydney Swans are being under-rated. I think the Swans are primed to be at their peak physical form this week. They had a huge training load about 6-8 weeks out from the finals. Struggled during that period until about 2 weeks from the final. Have built nicely from the Round 23 game against Hawthorn.

The second half against the Hawks was a let-down but last week showed that their players are getting close to full fitness. (Look at the stats of Jack, O'Keefe, McVeigh, Kennedy).

Having said that, if Fremantle play at their top level, they will beat the Swans.
The Swans +21.5 could be a play.

I didnt think the Cats had it in them to produce the effort that they did. There is no doubt in my mind if they had Chapman and Enright they would have got over the line.

The Swans are not in bad form, but they have lost 3 of their past 4 games. 2 against Hawks and 1 against the Cats. When the Pies beat them in Sydney, over a month ago they played the same style of football that the Dockers play and that is a concern for me.

Losing Tippett hurts them and they dont have players like Goodes up forward to do the job. I expect LRT will play tonight. But he wont be at the top of his game being his first AFL game in a long while.

Dont forget, Swans got pummeled by the Hawks in W1 and beat the 9th best team in the comp by 4 goals being kept scoreless in the last qtr.

Freo just need to replicate the same tactics they did against the Cats and they will get the job done.

The concern I have got though is players being scared of over committing too hard knowing that a possible GF is at stake. Dont forget the Dockers are almost virgin like when it comes to prelims. Sydney on the other hand are like whores, they have done prelims many times.

 

[GROTTO]

History favours the Dockers too, 23 of the past 26 prelims been won by the team with the week off.

Hmmm here is some bias info, lol. It makes what the Crows did in 98 incredible.

They played 5 consecutive away games and won the flag.

 

[GROTTO]

1 hour and 34 minutes to go. Not a bad way to spend Saturday night albeit with flu.

 

[Willzzz]

Opps, let me re-take what I said about Sydney +21.5 being a possible play.
My tip now is to leave that bet alone.

Forgot the Swans had Tippett and Mitchell go down in the first quarter last week.
Their players will have played more minutes than planned and that coupled with a long flight to the West will mean that they will be tired this weekend.
I'll be staying about from the line betting personally.

 

[Willzzz]

Funny, cause I took the $2.08 on offer for him getting under 1.0 goals.

Luxbet amuse me. They don't even accept a measly $30 bet on Barlow at $6.50 to top Dream Team scoring. Partially accepted for $10 and odds into $5 immediately. Time to register a new account with them, I think. It's their fault when I f*ck them up again.

Luxbet is a joke. Seriously.
Haven't had a problem with any other bookie as I am generally pretty forgiving when bookies make a mistake and apologise afterwards, but Luxbet is pretty bad.
I'm talking about their Customer Service, the person on Live Chat decides ignoring me for 10+ minutes is the way to go about things when he or Luxbet has made an obvious mistake or when he can't answer my question.

 

[GROTTO]

Luxbet is a joke. Seriously.
Haven't had a problem with any other bookie as I am generally pretty forgiving when bookies make a mistake and apologise afterwards, but Luxbet is pretty bad.
I'm talking about their Customer Service, the person on Live Chat decides ignoring me for 10+ minutes is the way to go about things when he or Luxbet has made an obvious mistake or when he can't answer my question.

Make a formal complaint about the service you received they are more likely to oblige and give you a free bet. You may need to turn that over somewhere between 50-100X lol but its a free bet.

 

[BLOODsMAGIC]

Opps, let me re-take what I said about Sydney +21.5 being a possible play.
My tip now is to leave that bet alone.

Forgot the Swans had Tippett and Mitchell go down in the first quarter last week.
Their players will have played more minutes than planned and that coupled with a long flight to the West will mean that they will be tired this weekend.
I'll be staying about from the line betting personally.

lol, long flight- 3 hours please, in business class!!

Get on my boys +22.5 they are the bloods don't forget this!!

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

Hoping for a result under 39.5 either way tonight...just as long as it doesn't blow out.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Decided to take Sportsbet up on their 'lose by three goals money back' offer.

$100 on Freo @ $1.30.

Subiaco is a fortress; a week's break; Sydney in woeful form apart from beating an ordinary Carlton.

If they get done by more than three goals tonight it is rebuild time. Lyon2Brisbane.

 

[Kaine Smith]

Decided to take Sportsbet up on their 'lose by three goals money back' offer.

$100 on Freo @ $1.30.

I did the same and looks like we are in the box seat right now.

Was initially going to go for Freo 1-39 but that looks nearly gone for now if it keeps up, however they may take it easy in the final quarter.