AFL R7

[Anzac16]

Early Odds. All Sportsbet:

Friday 2nd May

Carlton $4.00 vs Collingwood $1.22. (MCG, 19:50)

Saturday 3rd May

Hawthorn $X.XX vs St. Kilda $X.XX. (MCG, 13:45)
Greater Western Sydney $6.50 vs Port Adelaide $1.10. (Startrack Oval, 14:10)
Adelaide $1.09 vs Melbourne $6.50. (Adelaide Oval, 16:10)
Brisbane $4.70 vs Sydney $1.16 (Gabba, 19:40)
Essendon $1.33 vs Western Bulldogs $3.10 (Etihad, 19:40)

Sunday 4th May

North Melbourne $1.20 vs Gold Coast $4.30 (Etihad, 13:10)
Geelong $1.20 vs Richmond $4.40 (MCG, 15:20)
West Coast $2.40 vs Fremantle $1.53 (Patersons, 14:40)

 

[Parko31]

I really like Geelongs line of -28.5
And Ports -40.5 coming off a big win

 

[Anzac16]

Early Thoughts

• Carlton at the line of 26.5. We have had two good performances in a row and will be coming in fired up against our biggest rivals. Should be a fairly close game either way.
• Port vs GWS is at Startrack Oval, ie the Sandpit. Not sure how this will affect the outcome and the overall scoring. GWS and Bulldogs had a high scoring game there so I like the total points over (current 182.5 at Bet 365) and Port at the line.
  
• Like Geelong at the line as well of 28.5. Will rebound and smash the Tigers you would think.

 

[banana_bus]

Cats $1.20 wow... should be $1.10

 

[John of all Johns]

Carlton v Collingwood (MCG) (1u x pies -26.5 @ 1.85) Pies as much as I hate to say it, are looking the goods, while Carlton have put on performances I don't think they are against good sides.
GWS v Port (SO) ( 1u x Port -40.5 @ 1.85) Scrappy game but Port are the team to beat, not only are they winning they are winning by good margins.
NMFC v GC (ES) (1u +28.5 GC @ 1.85) North are too inconsistent while GC one of the most improved this year.
Cats v Tigers (MCG)(1u x -28.5 Cats @ 1.85) We are shit.

Loving the lines at the moment, my reasons for my lines, hopefully I can copy this next Sunday with all green!
Round 6 = -2.5 units.
YTD = -2.5 units.

 

[Anzac16]

Weather at this stage for Sunday in Melbourne is 15C with some morning showers. Very tempted to jump on Geelong at the line tonight. Will creep out to 35-40 during the week.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

No obvious value there, probably one of the worst betting rounds of the year so far H2H. Maybe Brisbane at a +40 line if the bookies throw up something stupid like that against Sydney with a few injuries. Cant say im ready to dive into it even if they do.

 

[Anzac16]

2U - Geelong -28.5 @ $1.91 (Bet 365)

Can't see Richmond getting close playing the way they are. Failed to cover this against the 2 good teams they have played this year in Collingwood and Hawthorn. Covered the line 3 out of the last 5 times these 2 teams have played.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Early Thoughts

• Carlton at the line of 26.5. We have had two good performances in a row and will be coming in fired up against our biggest rivals. Should be a fairly close game either way.
• Port vs GWS is at Startrack Oval, ie the Sandpit. Not sure how this will affect the outcome and the overall scoring. GWS and Bulldogs had a high scoring game there so I like the total points over (current 182.5 at Bet 365) and Port at the line.
  
• Like Geelong at the line as well of 28.5. Will rebound and smash the Tigers you would think.

Really like the Port vs GWS match total points you spotted.

 

[Anzac16]

Really like the Port vs GWS match total points you spotted.

Was just checking out the stats on the encounters. The three games that they have played against each other, average totals have been 189. Both teams averaging 183 in Total Points this year. I'd expect Port to kick 110+ this week. Weather on Saturday in Canberra at this stage is 13 and cloudy with scattered showers. Not 100% confident at this stage, but like it. Games seem like they have been going under a lot more this year than over.

 

[ricardogp]

I can't help but think that Brisbane are overs. Sydney are currently a hit and miss team, and Brisbane can string a few good quarters together. They do tend to fade, but I'll be looking at them for a head start or line, and probably a half time line when they release it.

Also think that GC are overs.

Sent using Tapatalk for Android

 

[Aed0s]

Don't really have any early thoughts at this stage. Not much value in the H2H bets and the lines are pretty tight at the moment. Will wait a few more days before making any more judgements or reservations about the lines.

I'm open to all ideas and speculations though.

 

[Aed0s]

Some information I found from a tipping Facebook page:

After 6 rounds of footy, we take a look into how each team has gone ATS (Against the Spread)

Adelaide 2-4
Brisbane 1-5
Carlton 2-4
Collingwood 4-2
Essendon 3-3
Fremantle 3-3
Geelong 5-1
Gold Coast 3-3
GWS 2-4
Hawthorn 4-2
Melbourne 3-3
North Melbourne 4-2
Port Adelaide 5-1
Richmond 2-4
St Kilda 4-2
Sydney 2-4
West Coast 2-4
Western Bulldogs 3-3

ATS Ladder with how much they have +/- their respective lines

(Brackets Actual Ladder Position)

Port Adelaide 5-1 +217 (1)
Geelong 5-1 +50 (3)
Hawthorn 4-2 +124 (2)
Collingwood 4-2 +37 (4)
North Melbourne 4-2 +23 (5)
St Kilda 4-2 +10 (11)
Essendon 3-3 +14 (12)
Fremantle 3-3 +6 (8)
-------------------------------------------
Gold Coast 3-3 -1 (6)
Melbourne 3-3 -7 (17)
Western Bulldogs 3-3 -31 (15)
GWS 2-4 +36 (14)
West Coast 2-4 -15 (7)
Adelaide 2-4 -27 (10)
Sydney 2-4 -89 (9)
Richmond 2-4 -92 (13)
Carlton 2-4 -115 (16)
Brisbane 1-5 -124 (18)

Port Adelaide have been the Clear Best side to bet on at the Line in 2014 winning 5 from 6 and smashing their lines.

 

[iluvparis]

Interesting tables - although I reckon median line miss would probably be a more accurate tiebreaker in the second table.

 

[Keystone agony]

I actually think the Pies could very well smash the blues. They will kill them in the midfield and their forward line will just be way too good for the blues defense. I like them at -26.5.

I agree with Geelong at 1.20 and also -28.5 line coming off a loss the cats will look to rebound and the tigers dont look gaining any of Rance, Maric, Deledio do they?

I also like Dons at -20.5 Line. Need to win and win big they arent necessarily out of form. Im waiting for them to play to their ability. Chance Myers, Hocking, TBell and Goddard return (big ins).

I think Kangaroos should dismantle GC pretty comfortably aswell. GC arent going that great have beat Brisbane, Richmond, GWS, Melbourne. Kangaroos have beaten Freo and Sydney away which is massive. Just whether or not they can return from Subi with travel okay.

Brisbane a chance to get within line. Expecting a good under total score bet. No buddy maybe? helps.

Expecting freo to win against eagles.

Port vs GWS is hard they could pump them or come out really flat to start with. Maybe GWS +line first quarter could be a good bet after port caused an upset today then play away.

If 4 or 5 upsets occur this week then im dead to reading the game and results.

Everything looks straight forward to me this week, but has never ended up that way.

Above stats would correlate with my early thoughts here aswell. Already got a multi on of 8 legs 7 fold.

 

[Keystone agony]

1U Pies -26.5 @1.85
1U Dons -20.5 @1.85
1U Port -40.5 @1.85
1U North -26.5 @1.85
1U Cats -28.5 @1.85

 

[Aussie_boy]

Carlton are good value I reckon, also Fremantle are decent odds imo, vital game for them as a loss will make top 4 aspirations seem a world away.

 

[TheKanga]

Don't mind Brisbane h2h and at the line.

 

[ricardogp]

Already on Geelong 40+ @ $2.40 (Sportsbet)

Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk

 

[chrisdon16]

All over Dons @ -20.5. That will be -28-30 range by game time. Huge ins this week with Bellchambers/Hocking/Goddard. First quarter last week Dons looked like the best team in the comp. I don't think bulldigs will get close, Bomber will be hard this week

 

[The GOAT]

Fremantle are decent odds imo, vital game for them as a loss will make top 4 aspirations seem a world away.

I thought that last week. Been sucked into Freo in all of their losses this year, I think they'll struggle until they can fix their forward line. WC decent value for mine

 

[chrisdon16]

Also Essendon have two days rest on bulldogs. One day probably doesn't mean much but 2 days to recover means something. Plus dogs were in a battle yesterday. They'll be licking their wounds this morning

 

[banana_bus]

Also Essendon have two days rest on bulldogs. One day probably doesn't mean much but 2 days to recover means something. Plus dogs were in a battle yesterday. They'll be licking their wounds this morning

It doesnt. You're betting with your heart not your head.

The line is where it should be at based on Essendons last 3 performances.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Some information I found from a tipping Facebook page:

After 6 rounds of footy, we take a look into how each team has gone ATS (Against the Spread)

Adelaide 2-4
Brisbane 1-5
Carlton 2-4
Collingwood 4-2
Essendon 3-3
Fremantle 3-3
Geelong 5-1
Gold Coast 3-3
GWS 2-4
Hawthorn 4-2
Melbourne 3-3
North Melbourne 4-2
Port Adelaide 5-1
Richmond 2-4
St Kilda 4-2
Sydney 2-4
West Coast 2-4
Western Bulldogs 3-3

ATS Ladder with how much they have +/- their respective lines

(Brackets Actual Ladder Position)

Port Adelaide 5-1 +217 (1)
Geelong 5-1 +50 (3)
Hawthorn 4-2 +124 (2)
Collingwood 4-2 +37 (4)
North Melbourne 4-2 +23 (5)
St Kilda 4-2 +10 (11)
Essendon 3-3 +14 (12)
Fremantle 3-3 +6 (8)
-------------------------------------------
Gold Coast 3-3 -1 (6)
Melbourne 3-3 -7 (17)
Western Bulldogs 3-3 -31 (15)
GWS 2-4 +36 (14)
West Coast 2-4 -15 (7)
Adelaide 2-4 -27 (10)
Sydney 2-4 -89 (9)
Richmond 2-4 -92 (13)
Carlton 2-4 -115 (16)
Brisbane 1-5 -124 (18)

Port Adelaide have been the Clear Best side to bet on at the Line in 2014 winning 5 from 6 and smashing their lines.

Brisbane have been great to bet against - until last week!

 

[yamahamoto]

I'm assuming this is the closed line? I would say Adelaide beat their line last week as everyone would be on the 5-8pts line.