AFL R7

[Spads]

Carlton back to back 6 day breaks + having players injuried during the last 2 games scares me from going too hard on them at the line/SU.

Also betting Carlton SU.

Pies backline has had some consistency but now loses Toovey and Fasolo (with rumours of Maxwell having to pass a fitness test). Dwyer and Williams are ok replacements but have not played much.

Everyone is also back on the "Collingwood has the best midfield in the league bandwagon." Similar statements have been made before, with the most recent being just prior round 21 last year. Hawthorn then showed them up. Carlton are not Hawthorn, but there is a long history of the pies midfield not being able to fire consistently. When it doesn't fire, or when it gets ahead of itself and isn't accountable, they lose. There were glimpses of this early last week, especially with Stanton killing them.

This match also has the hangover of inflated odds for Carlton based on their pathetic form a couple of weeks ago. They are not a good team, but they're equally not terrible.

 

[stewie griffen]

Word is Waite and carazzo late outs.

Pies -23.5

 

[Anzac16]

I too think we won't lose by more than 40, but I'm struggling to find supporting evidence. I thought the same against Essendon and we lost by 11 goals. And Collingwood have since proven to be several goals better than that.

I would only throw a beer's worth on Carlton 1-24 because I'm a romantic...

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Difference is we were devoid of confidence going into the Essendon game. Losses to Port and Richmond, two teams we competed well against and beat at the right end of last year. We've come off a good win against the Dogs and a hard fought comeback against West Coast. We had a hard fought comeback against Port last year in Round 23, then look what happened the next week. Another hard fought comeback. Confidence is the key for our side, nay any side. Think it will be a close game. Collingwood have it won on paper, but it will be close tonight I think.

 

[ricardogp]

With this said, what it the wire-to-wire 'any other result' paying?

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[stewie griffen]

With this said, what it the wire-to-wire 'any other result' paying?

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2.30 on sportingbet

 

[Jay-Z]

Thoughts on Melbourne 0-50 points at $3.50? They only managed 30 vs West Coast and 38 vs Sydney and it is supposed to rain tomorrow.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Im already on Matthew Wright vs Brodie Smith in Dream Team as one of my more confident bets of the round but you can still currently get coin flip odds, this article only made me even happier:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-05-02/demons-lock-on-smith

 

[chrisdon16]

Collingwood and over 164.5 @ $2.50

This has come into $2.20 in half an hour, glad I got on early

 

[jefffff34]

Carlton vs Collingwood
Cloke to kick 3+ goals @ $2.15
Beams to kick 3+ goals @ $14.00
Pendlebury to have 30+ disposals @ $2.00
Swan to have 30+ disposals @ $2.15
Murphy to have 30+ disposals @ $4.00
Pendlebury to beat Swan for DT @ $1.95

 

[chrisdon16]

Murphy to have 30+ disposals @ $4.00

After what Murphy has done over the past 2 weeks, McCaffer is a certainty to wear him tonight..... Like a glove. Hence why it's $4. Is there a market fir Murphy under 30?

 

[stewie griffen]

Line shifted 2 points over the last ten minutes. Pies firming

 

[GROTTO]

Thoughts on Melbourne 0-50 points at $3.50? They only managed 30 vs West Coast and 38 vs Sydney and it is supposed to rain tomorrow.

Massive thunderstorms hit Adelaide last night and during the day today.

 

[Keystone agony]

Also going the
1u ebert > 106.5 @ 1.87
2u Melbourne Adelaide < 183.6 @ 1.88

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Who with laam ? im getting on

 

[Anzac16]

Underrate Menzel at your own peril. I have put $500 on him to be an anytime goalscorer. In all likelihood, it's pretty much certain money. Peace out.

Starts as sub. Better hope he slots one home late!

 

[The GOAT]

Menzel the sub lol

 

[kangars]

Looking at most goals for tonight

Travis Cloke is paying $3 but has only kicked 6 goals from 6 games, being held goalless on 4 occasions.
Jesse White is paying $7 and has kicked 9 goals from 5 games, he has kicked multiple goals in four of his games with a high of 3.
Jamie Elliot is paying $8 and has kicked 14 goals from 6 games, he has kicked multiple goals in four of his games with a high of 5.
Dane Swan is paying $12 and has kicked 8 goals from 6 games, he has kicked multiple goals on 2 occasions with a high of 4.

Jarrod Waite is paying $10 and has kicked 8 goals from 5 games, kicking multiple goals on four occasions with a high of 3
Lachie Henderson is paying $10 and has kicked 9 goals from 6 games, kicking multiple goals on two occasions with a high of 5
Jeff Garlett is paying $12 and has kicked 6 goals from 4 games, kicking multiple goals on only 1 occasion.

For me the value is with Jamie Elliot and Jesse white. Ill probably chuck a sneaky 10 on each.

Edit: Lol @ Menzel being the sub.

 

[Aed0s]

SUBS & LATE CHANGES:

Carlton: Troy Menzel
Collingwood: Ben Kennedy

LATE CHANGES:

Carlton:
In: Sam Docherty & Tom Bell
Out: Jarrad Waite & Andrew Carrazzo

Collingwood:
In: Ben Kennedy & Taylor Adams
Out: Clinton Young & Nick Maxwell

 

[Keystone agony]

Looking at most goals for tonight

Travis Cloke is paying $3 but has only kicked 6 goals from 6 games, being held goalless on 4 occasions.
Jesse White is paying $7 and has kicked 9 goals from 5 games, he has kicked multiple goals in four of his games with a high of 3.
Jamie Elliot is paying $8 and has kicked 14 goals from 6 games, he has kicked multiple goals in four of his games with a high of 5.
Dane Swan is paying $12 and has kicked 8 goals from 6 games, he has kicked multiple goals on 2 occasions with a high of 4.

Jarrod Waite is paying $10 and has kicked 8 goals from 5 games, kicking multiple goals on four occasions with a high of 3
Lachie Henderson is paying $10 and has kicked 9 goals from 6 games, kicking multiple goals on two occasions with a high of 5
Jeff Garlett is paying $12 and has kicked 6 goals from 4 games, kicking multiple goals on only 1 occasion.

For me the value is with Jamie Elliot and Jesse white. Ill probably chuck a sneaky 10 on each.

Edit: Lol @ Menzel being the sub.

I like Elliot. I think it will be one of those games where a couple players kick 2 or 3.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Kane Cornes more disposals than Boak $1.80, very confident on this.

 

[iluvparis]

Sixpack bet just got a lot less attractive.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Averages 31 to 25 in the 3 games they have played vs GWS

 

[Aed0s]

I like Elliot. I think it will be one of those games where a couple players kick 2 or 3.

Last year in round 2 he kicked 5 against Carlton.

Looks like good value. Worth the punt.

 

[Keystone agony]

Multi (unsure if posted)

Freo win
Cats win
North win
Dons -20.5
Syd win
Adel win
Port -40.5
Coll - 26.5

Need 7/8 folds

1.6U to win roughly $300 odd

 

[Substance]

surely luxbet will sub waite with another player? otherwise it's not a 6 pack

 

[Keystone agony]

Coll vs Carl bets
1U Collingwood -26.5 @1.92
0.2U J.Elliot MGS @8
1U Sixpack special (Waite*, Murphy, Gibbs, Cloke, Swan, Pendlebury).
2U Sidebottom over M.Murphy @1.75 (bet365)

What happens with Waite out now?

Might be a late DT bet.