AFL Round 1

[Daytripper]

I struggle to see where essendons goals are going to come from

no hurley, lloyd, lucas means no big bodies up front, and nobody to crash the packs for the crumbers

They did kick 22 goals in their last practice match - albeit against Richmond.

People forget that Mark Williams is now at Essendon too.

Think you'll find that Hille will play forward and with Gumbleton and Neagle in the side as well the problem might be too much tall timber - not lack of.

 

[GoodesStuff]

They did kick 22 goals in their last practice match - albeit against Richmond.

People forget that Mark Williams is now at Essendon too.

Think you'll find that Hille will play forward and with Gumbleton and Neagle in the side as well the problem might be too much tall timber - not lack of.

But Hille is returning from injury. You think he will be at full fitness or play parts of the game as he is eased into the season?

 

[Lensen]

I've decided to open my Bigfooty blog and post my system bets there.

For this week though:

I will admit though that it's not an optimal spreadsheet and does have some kinks, one of which is that it is unreliable (read: unprofitable) at selecting away winners. So even when the system tells me that away teams are overs, I will ignore those bets.

Based on the odds I've been able to source, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Adelaide are overs this week. This leaves me with just Port Adelaide as a bet which I have done - and even then it's at a very skinny margin.

 

[Daytripper]

I've decided to open my Bigfooty blog and post my system bets there.

For this week though:

So you only back teams that are overs and that are selected as winners ?

I'm not so sure about that - on % terms for instance you have Essendon as a 36% chance of winning yet the market has them as a 22% chance.Similarly Melbourne are rated as a 30% chance with you yet the market has them as a 18% chance.

I've always punted on the basis that you take any significant 'over' even if they aren't your winning selection.

You might be letting a lot of profit go by ignoring this assuming your odds compiling is correct of course.

 

[Daytripper]

But Hille is returning from injury. You think he will be at full fitness or play parts of the game as he is eased into the season?

Hence why he will play a lot of the game forward.

 

[Lensen]

So you only back teams that are overs and that are selected as winners ?

I'm not so sure about that - on % terms for instance you have Essendon as a 36% chance of winning yet the market has them as a 22% chance.Similarly Melbourne are rated as a 30% chance with you yet the market has them as a 18% chance.

I've always punted on the basis that you take any significant 'over' even if they aren't your winning selection.

You might be letting a lot of profit go by ignoring this assuming your odds compiling is correct of course.

You are right, of course.

But I'm not entirely sold on the system as completely accurate. All I know is that it's worked consistently three years running on picking winners, just not picking percentages.

It's something that I'll look to refine at the end of the first year of "live" testing, but for now i'm happy to stick with winners and see how I go.

Cheers

 

[adii_7]

multi me carlton brisbane essendon melbourne and fremantle please.

 

[happy punter]

Tigers to beat Blues @ 2.95 (1 unit)
Tigers +16.5 over Blues @ 1.90 (2 units)

GL chaps

 

[mattys123]

Tigers to beat Blues, really?

Did you see the sides selected, Richmond have gone so young they could be accused of "tanking" already.

I'm so confident of the Blues winning, but there's no way I can barrack for them, so I'm not betting on this game.

 

[lions_den]

Tigers to beat Blues, really?

Did you see the sides selected, Richmond have gone so young they could be accused of "tanking" already.

I'm so confident of the Blues winning, but there's no way I can barrack for them, so I'm not betting on this game.

100% agree. God I hope the Tiges get up though.

 

[benchwarmers]

Ive done a multi of, carlton-hawthorn-adelaide-geelong over 15.5-sydney,stkilda either under 15.5 @ $12.94

 

[McCrann]

Tigers to beat Blues, really?

Did you see the sides selected, Richmond have gone so young they could be accused of "tanking" already.

I'm so confident of the Blues winning, but there's no way I can barrack for them, so I'm not betting on this game.

Tigers tanking for Pick 4? Ha - wouldn't be surprised.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Did you see the sides selected, Richmond have gone so young they could be accused of "tanking" already.

Well its not like any of the older players are any better...

 

[lidzychief]

my round 1 multi
sydney +15.5, port -15.5, freo under 39.5, geel/geel/geel/geel, brisbane - $10 @ $16.67

 

[Santoz]

Carlton -17.5 @ $1.97

1 unit

 

[Jammer]

Could anybody direct me to a link giving me information on
the last 10 times two teams played each other......

e.g. Seeing how many times North have won at football park over the
last 5 or six years.....Finding out how many times a team has won interstate over a period of years........
Teams performances at night ect.....
Is there somewhere that gives this info rather than me spending too much time researching it.

Thanks in advance

 

[The Big Woofer]

Tigers to beat Blues, really?

Did you see the sides selected, Richmond have gone so young they could be accused of "tanking" already.

I'm so confident of the Blues winning, but there's no way I can barrack for them, so I'm not betting on this game.

That's quite funny!

I've been thinking about this, i reckon Hardwick has been told, look we know we're up the proverbial creek without a paddle for the next season or more so blood the youngsters & start building towards something without feeling the pressure to pick older guys in the hope of winning an extra game or two this year.

4 Debutants surely spells disaster for rich tonight--even if these kids turn out to be good players its not a recipe to win the game....

 

[mattys123]

Ok, Longshot Multi for round 1;

LEG 1 = Carlton; 24.5 +
LEG 2 = Geelong; 1 - 39
LEG 3 = Hawthorn; 1 - 39
LEG 4 = StKilda; 1 - 39

26.20 per unit.

With 22 rounds of betting, I only have to "hit" one of these all year to be ahead, so it's worth a shot each week.

 

[tazlgnd]

i like the look of richmond

last to carlton by 20 last year when fev kicked 9

im going to take either side uder 15.5 and richmond at the line

 

[The Big Woofer]

The match points in this game tonight are going under the 195.5

Hardwick has virtually said he’ll be playing a defensive gameplan this year—he’s preparing the rich fans for some ugly football. Carlton shouldn’t kick a cricket score as they’re still sorting out their new forward mix…..add to this there’s 15kmph winds in melb this evening forecast & the fact rich have a very ordinary forward line & I think we’ll see a 105 to 75 type of game.

I had the game marked at 183.5 when I did my ratings so there’s a bit of value I reckon.

 

[foxy_dal]

My big multi - Carlton under 39.5/North Melb under 39.5/St. kilda 1-19 @ 34.42

Will multi up winner of Bulldogs vs Collingwood under 15.5, Brisbane under 39.5 and maybe hawks at the line in other multi's.

 

[Wilso]

My big multi - Carlton under 39.5/North Melb under 39.5/St. kilda 1-19 @ 34.42

Like the look of that multi.

As for myself I've gone for a basic Carlton, Geelong, Hawks, Saints, Adelaide multi @ $6.05. Didn't want to muck around with lines with no form to work off.

 

[lions_den]

my bets for this week: port/adelaide @2.67 and a couple of DT multis with sportingbet when all the markets come through. Will also head to TAB to put some coin on the under for tonights game.

 

[unclechopchop2]

I think that Adelaide is great value at $1.87. Are people under rating the crows they are a good unit. Also like Syd/Saints either team under 24.5 @$2.04.
Also got on sportingbets happy hour, Blues -15.5 @$2.10. Happy punting.

 

[The Big Woofer]

I think that Adelaide is great value at $1.87. Are people under rating the crows they are a good unit. Also like Syd/Saints either team under 24.5 @$2.04.
Also got on sportingbets happy hour, Blues -15.5 @$2.10. Happy punting.

I think all 3 of those are winners.....

I really think the under 195 tonight is a great bet.