AFL round 1

[Demon3]

Odds came out today for round 1



Carlton 1.35
Richmond 3.05



Geelong 2.05
St Kilda 1.72


Collingwood 1.06
Port Adelaide 8.00

Brisbane 2.25
Fremantle 1.60

Adelaide 2.05
Hawthorn 1.72

Essendon 2.35
Wst Bulldogs 1.55

Melbourne 1.60
Sydney 2.25

West Coast 1.65
North Melbourne 2.15

reckon nth melb are good value, also adelaide playing at home

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Finally! Have been waiting a long time for this

Sydney line will be good value imo
North good value

I'll be doing my 5/6/7/8 line multis. Started at round 19 last year and hit 4 of 5, missing out on the first week of finals. Most bets are using line betting.

 

[puntnut]

North have played terribly at Subi in recent years. Even against WC they will struggle to beat them so the line looks about right.

Sydney look like value and Hawks seem over the odds.

 

[Demon3]

North have played terribly at Subi in recent years. Even against WC they will struggle to beat them so the line looks about right.






West Coast 14.10 94 Subiaco round 21 2010
North Melbourne 16.14 110

 

[puntnut]

Must have been one of North's rare wins at Subi.

WC stayed close for 3 quarters though. Definitely wont be touching that game with North's injury concerns.

 

[twarby]

North have played terribly at Subi in recent years. Even against WC they will struggle to beat them so the line looks about right.






West Coast 14.10 94 Subiaco round 21 2010
North Melbourne 16.14 110

he said in recent years, they have been smashed before that.
i remember that game last year, they were lucky to win thanks to some Swallow magic

 

[Demon3]

It would depend on the sides i guess. North Melb would be putting that as a win i would have thought. Can't see West Coast doing much this year.

 

[Kahuna]

Swans are value, very good value. Will take them H2H and probably a bit on the line to cover. I don't particulary rate Melbourne while the Swans are a honest team that should be able to win this.

Pies are too short.

Don't mind Adelaide either who are playing at home. They have a pretty decent team that should be able to compete well with Hawthorn. Will take adelaide line.

 

[timster]

1.70 ST KILDA
1.07 COLLINGWOOD
2.05 ADELAIDE
1.59 FREMANTLE
1.59 WESTERN BULLDOGS
1.65 MELBOURNE
1.68 WEST COAST
3.25 RICHMOND
Legs : 8
84.92

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

1.70 ST KILDA
1.07 COLLINGWOOD
2.05 ADELAIDE
1.59 FREMANTLE
1.59 WESTERN BULLDOGS
1.65 MELBOURNE
1.68 WEST COAST
3.25 RICHMOND
Legs : 8
84.92

Not going to happen...

 

[foley_falcon]

Finally! Have been waiting a long time for this

Sydney line will be good value imo
North good value

I'll be doing my 5/6/7/8 line multis. Started at round 19 last year and hit 4 of 5, missing out on the first week of finals. Most bets are using line betting.

What is this?

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

I think he means tipping any of that number of teams in a multi using lines. One week the multi might be 5 bets, the next 7 bets.

 

[abs_of_STEELE]

What is this?

I think he means putting 5-8 games together in a multi, going with the line in each of them.

Eg. Collingwood -19.5, Carlton -16.5 and Essendon +15.5 etc. all together in a multi.

 

[foley_falcon]

Ah okay, thanks.

 

[mattys123]

StKilda and Hawthorn best bets at the quoted prices in the OP.

Adelaide are limping into round 1, and the Hawks aren't, they are flying, and will start the season as well as anyone.

And as for StKilda, ignore last week, they gave up once Fisher (or Gilbert?, always get those 2 confused) went down, and apart from the Grand Final in 09, they have the Cats measure, and Geelong will take a while to "gel" under a new coach and without Ablett.

I like WCE also, North probably have the worst injury list going into round 1, and while I don't trust the Eagles, they should win at home.

 

[The_Doctor]

I think Richmond at the line will be a reasonable bet to start off the year. Cannot see Carlton thumping them like they have in recent round 1 matches. There younger players all have another pre season under there belt and Carlton definetly have not improved.

Geelong vs St Kilda is a tough game and i will have to wait to see the teams.

Collingwood are way under the odds. Port Adelaide are a team who if they have a good day could push Collingwood especially it being round 1. I will most likely take the line for Port Adelaide.

At 1.78 Hawthorn are fantastic value, i expected about 1.55 for them. Adelaide are a fairly good side at home but with the hawks inclusion of Hale i think they will have too much fire power for them.

I think Brisbane at home at 2.40 is also a very decent bet to start the year. Freo are missing Barlow, Morabito and i doubt they will risk Hill and Ballantyne on the hard Gabba ground. At the very least i will be taking the brisbane line.

At the moment i think the Bulldogs are a good bet at the 1.60, just a touch of overs but i think they will win pretty easily in the end.

Melbourne vs Sydney i have no idea.

I may be bias but i think North Melbourne at 2.10 is very good value. No doubt in my mind we should be favourite for this match. Yes we are coming in with injuries but we have pretty good depth with our young players so it wont be such a huge loss for us.

 

[GoodesStuff]

I am not keen on betting H2H for the first four games to open the season. After that though I like Freo and Western Bulldogs and think they should be much shorter. The swans and roos at better then even money is overs imo too, as I think both should be slight favs.

Will look closely at the game total line for St.k/Geel and Ade/Haw as I think both have the potential to be low scoring affairs. Would take the unders if the line was anything over about 166.5 in these 2 matches.

 

[Amack]

I'm thinking that Essendon might be good value especially if they lose tonight given WB will probably warm into the season a bit and Essendon might be up and firing for the first few rounds.

 

[timster]

Not going to happen...

Wow such insight!!! Going out there with that comment.
Perhaps you may wish to enlighten us at to why it couldn't happen.
Just the one real upset Rich vs carl - the other tips are really 50-50 games, especially for the first round.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Wow such insight!!! Going out there with that comment.
Perhaps you may wish to enlighten us at to why it couldn't happen.
Just the one real upset Rich vs carl - the other tips are really 50-50 games, especially for the first round.

You just explained it yourself right there...1 upset and 7, 50/50 games. Use the lines to bring it more in your favour.

 

[timster]

You just explained it yourself right there...1 upset and 7, 50/50 games. Use the lines to bring it more in your favour.

That's why it's paying over 80-1. Why can't this happen - which game are you saying will certainly not happen (and why)

 

[The_Doctor]

I'm thinking that Essendon might be good value especially if they lose tonight given WB will probably warm into the season a bit and Essendon might be up and firing for the first few rounds.

Why would you think that? Seems like a stupid suggestion to make that one team will just ease into the year. Im pretty sure they will be going all out to win every game

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

That's why it's paying over 80-1. Why can't this happen - which game are you saying will certainly not happen (and why)

No such thing as a certainty

But you'd want to have at least 1 game that you're very confident about in an 8 leg multi and I can't see 1.

Carlton SHOULD win

I think the Kangaroos will win, even with the injuries they have. More expirienced midfield and WCE are playing terribly at the moment. Nic Nat and Mitch Brown both look like missing and I doubt Kerr will be back

Although Collingwood should win, at $1.07 there is no point. A full NAB fixture with the travel to Perth and with some injury worries I dont think it is worth it.

Freo have won one game in 15 years at the Gabba, granted it was last year but only by 13 points. I think Brisbane have a chance at winning this. Johno Brown looks to be nearing 100% fitness and I could tear apart an injury ravaged Freo. Ill be looking at taking Brisbane at the line.

Bulldogs will win. Good value

I think this should be 50/50. Sydney at great odds and I will be taking the line or either team under 15.5. The Swans have won 5 of the last 7 games and are 1 all at the MCG

Hawks a good chance to win. 4 each out of the last 8 with Hawks belting Adelaide in the most recent. Franklin in ominous form. I think they will stretch the Adelaide defenders

Saints v Geelong - Agree

 

[adii_7]

think essendon may destroy the doggies..

 

[The_Doctor]

What a surprise!