AFL round 1

[Lyyynnnchy]

Perhaps you can explain some of the difficulties you've encountered & how you've mitigated them with regards to buying property in the USA from Aus as an Aus citizen.

Not that difficult actually. US bank account and a signatory are the hardest things

All explained here. Plenty of people do it and the returns are fantastic

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66392&page=65

 

[Trailblazer]

i was looking at fixed term deposits just yesterday, ive got 250k which i need in 6 months as part of a down payment for an apartment in NY...

anyway, ING direct give you around 6.3%.... LOL!!!

collingwood are paying 7% this weekend... $50k over 5 bookies, done...

Ha ha, i lol'd.....

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Brisbane to beat an injury depleted Fremantle looks to be the best H2H bet for an underdog this week. Won 1 game out of 15 at the GABBA. (Win coming last year as well) Perth to Brisbane longest flight in the AFL and I feel quite confident Brisbane will beat them here. (Even with no Fev and Jonathon Brown playing his 1st game for season) Brisbane have a pretty much full list to choose from apart from Drummon. Brisbane $2.46 to win.

Centrebet released the line for Collingwood and Port Adelaide being 46.5 points . Port worth a play here at the line, first game in the season I expect Magpies to be rusty. Willing to take Power at the line at $1.92

 

[mike262]

Brisbane to beat an injury depleted Fremantle looks to be the best H2H bet for an underdog this week. Won 1 game out of 15 at the GABBA. (Win coming last year as well) Perth to Brisbane longest flight in the AFL and I feel quite confident Brisbane will beat them here. (Even with no Fev and Jonathon Brown playing his 1st game for season) Brisbane have a pretty much full list to choose from apart from Drummon. Brisbane $2.46 to win.

Centrebet released the line for Collingwood and Port Adelaide being 46.5 points . Port worth a play here at the line, first game in the season I expect Magpies to be rusty. Willing to take Power at the line at $1.92

You would think Port would be more rusty than collingwood considering collingwood has had lot better match experience from NAB cup. Ports last NAB challenge game was against GWS. Not an ideal way to enter the season.

But then again 46.5 line is good considering no one has played a real game yet.

 

[mattys123]

Week 1 lines from Centrebet;

Carlton - 20.5 vs Tigers
Stkilda - 5.5 vs Geelong
Collingwood - 46.5 vs Port
Hawthorn - 4.5 vs Crows
Fremantle - 9.5 vs Brisbane
Dogs - 10.5 vs Bombers
Melbourne - 8.5 vs Sydney
WCE - 7.5 vs North


I wouldn't have too many different there.

The Geelong/Stkilda line had to be close, either team under 15.5 looks the best there.

20.5 is a decent start for the Tigers, but I see Carlton covering it still.

Pies vs Port is interesting, sides coming off NAB Cup wins usually struggle the first few weeks of the season, but whether 1st vs 12th-15th equals an eight goal win, hmm.

Line of the week; Hawks -4.5 vs Crows at this early stage, Crows injury troubles will slow them down early, and the Hawks travel well, and will start the season better then anyone IMO.

 

[asanque]

Week 1 lines from Centrebet;


Line of the week; Hawks -4.5 vs Crows at this early stage, Crows injury troubles will slow them down early, and the Hawks travel well, and will start the season better then anyone IMO.

Whilst I agree with you, the Hawks haven't won interstate (excluding Tassie) since Round 8 2009.

 

[mike262]

^ Wow

I did not know that, Surprising really considering how poor interstate teams have been of recent years.

 

[SirJimi05]

Not that difficult actually. US bank account and a signatory are the hardest things

All explained here. Plenty of people do it and the returns are fantastic

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66392&page=65

Are you going to be listing your 5/6/7/8 legged line multi bet for round ? I really wanna follow your tips.

 

[Rough_Edges]

Carlton h2h into Collingwood h2h @ $1.43 - nice value I feel.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Are you going to be listing your 5/6/7/8 legged line multi bet for round ? I really wanna follow your tips.

Will wait for the teams to be named

 

[The Big Woofer]

Week 1 lines from Centrebet;

Carlton - 20.5 vs Tigers
Stkilda - 5.5 vs Geelong
Collingwood - 46.5 vs Port
Hawthorn - 4.5 vs Crows
Fremantle - 9.5 vs Brisbane
Dogs - 10.5 vs Bombers
Melbourne - 8.5 vs Sydney
WCE - 7.5 vs North


I wouldn't have too many different there.

The Geelong/Stkilda line had to be close, either team under 15.5 looks the best there.

20.5 is a decent start for the Tigers, but I see Carlton covering it still.

Pies vs Port is interesting, sides coming off NAB Cup wins usually struggle the first few weeks of the season, but whether 1st vs 12th-15th equals an eight goal win, hmm.

Line of the week; Hawks -4.5 vs Crows at this early stage, Crows injury troubles will slow them down early, and the Hawks travel well, and will start the season better then anyone IMO.

What Adelaide injuries are you referring too? As far as i'm aware those guys will be full strength (Tippett will play). Vince played yesterday for Torrens & i can't think of too many they'd be missing, personally i reckon Adelaide are the value bet of the weekend, Haw are dodgey on the road & a night game i can see Adelaide's defense keeping the big forwards in check.

 

[mattys123]

What Adelaide injuries are you referring too? As far as i'm aware those guys will be full strength (Tippett will play). Vince played yesterday for Torrens & i can't think of too many they'd be missing, personally i reckon Adelaide are the value bet of the weekend, Haw are dodgey on the road & a night game i can see Adelaide's defense keeping the big forwards in check.

I was looking at the AFL's injury list when I made the post, and it had Petrenko, Jacobs, Tippett and Callinan all missing round 1, and of those, it's become clear only Callinan will be missing now.

That's another reason why I never place a bet on an AFL game before the final teams are named an hour before the game, injuries are so important in our game, even more so this year with the sub rule.

Will have to wait and see what teams are named, as Hodge is now in doubt of a start, after saying mid last week he was going to play.

 

[Rough_Edges]

I quite like the Crows this week.

Took a bit of $2.15 when they first opened. Already money for them and there will be more when Tippet is named and the doubt on Hodge increases throughout the week.

I expect $1.87 for both come the bounce.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Huge overs this week. I thought freo and the dogs should be closer to $1.3. Sydney should be fav and Carlton probably aren't overs but they seem a fair price. The saints are also a bit better than I expected. I'll be putting a multi With all them today as I don't think those prices will last once people take a serious look at it. I'll leave Sydney out of the multi though at this stage. It's around $6 without them anyway.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Huge overs this week. I thought freo and the dogs should be closer to $1.3. Sydney should be fav and Carlton probably aren't overs but they seem a fair price.

I think your the first person to agree with me on Freo/WB. There is no doubt in my mind that Freo should be as short as you said, and I also think the Bullies should be about 1.40-1.42. I will be on both of them at this stage.

I also have Sydney as slight favs. Carlton aren't overs,and I think Richmond have a bit of value but I don't think enough for me to put any money on them.

 

[The Big Woofer]

I think your the first person to agree with me on Freo/WB. There is no doubt in my mind that Freo should be as short as you said, and I also think the Bullies should be about 1.40-1.42. I will be on both of them at this stage.

I also have Sydney as slight favs. Carlton aren't overs,and I think Richmond have a bit of value but I don't think enough for me to put any money on them.

Don't get me wrong i think Bris will be rubbish this year, but isn't it some concern taking short odds freo when they will likely be mising 5 of their starting 22, are away from home at a venue they have a shocking record?

I backed freo in this game last year but the difference was they were $2.80 & flying at the time with close to a full list. Not saying they'll get rolled but the price is skinny to me.

 

[Donkson]

collingwood are paying 7% this weekend... $50k over 5 bookies, done...

So you're the worlds biggest bettor and you don't even find the best bookmakers?

lolno.

 

[Thursfieldness]

Admittedly it was in their most recent meeting, but Fremantle have only won once from 9 games at the 'Gabba. Brisbane meanwhile, have won their first home game of the year the last 12 years in a row.

If I bet, it'll be on Brisbane, though I'm sure they'll drift through the week.

 

[iluvparis]

My early thoughts are similar to Goodesy. Reckon the Swannies should be at least 50/50 against the Dees and are the value for the round as the underdog.

 

[stuziman]

If freo wins it won't be by much...but how can you be sure

I'm going swans & bombers all with starts

Bombers v dogs overs GT and saints v cats unders GT.

 

[asanque]

Punting 101

1. Never punt on Freo
2. If you must punt on Freo, never punt on Freo away from home.
3. If you must punt on Freo away from home, at least get good odds.

That is all

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I think Brisbane are in with a chance. Will be staying away from this game unless the odds change dramtically.

 

[Kahuna]

No Tippett for the crows. Hard to see them kicking a winning score against Hawthorn now.

 

[stuziman]

Best advice ive heard in along time. I'm hoping freo fizz out with so many injuries.

I bet Brisbane will test them people forget how good Brisbane can be at home. They still have a decent team.

 

[The Big Woofer]

No Tippett for the crows. Hard to see them kicking a winning score against Hawthorn now.

This game will be low scoring anyway so if Adl can kick 13 goals they'll win. I would not rule Adelaide out just based on Tippett but i agree it makes it harder for them. Would love to take the unders in this game if set anywhere near 180.