AFL round 1

[TurboBreuster]

Not sure what the promo is but I just played the below bets at 2:1 at sportsbet.com.au:
WBD -10.5 X1.7
MEL -7.5 X1.7
GEE +6.5 X1.7

 

[Daytripper]

Very good points raised although there are a lot of teams that use the NAB Cup for different reasons and there will be clubs that will surprise with poor NAB form. I see where you are coming from though, boosting confidence with Essendon's NAB performance.

The one thing that concerns me about the Bombers though (and I do like them as a team) is that they made a concerted effort to perform well in the NAB Cup, they needed to, wanted to build the Hird momentum and get membership numbers up. Have they gone too hard, too early? Whereas Collingwood looked like they were going half pace and won the whole thing!

You do get more information from a punting perspective than just the results in NAB form though, I agree with that.

But I dont want to bombard a punting board. My main point is that I think there is money to be made on the Lions and the media and sheep followers should be thanked for that.

Cheers - the reason I did a bit of research was to see if the percepetion (NAB Cup form is worthless) is actually the reality. My interest of course came from Essendon's performances but I think its valid for every other team as well.

There is also the perception that Essendon went 'hard' in the NAB Cup. Hird and the football department were at pains to express that they weren't going hard and that the real thing starts in April. They rested Watson and Hille (their two most important players) plus other important players at times. Against Melbourne for example they had just as many outs (if not more) than they did.

Again, its people not taking pre season form seriously. If your team gets beaten its always a case of 'we weren't trying' or 'we were resting players' etc etc. I think thats a trap that too many people fall for.

 

[parlayman]

Does any site as good as say covers.com exist for the AFL?

Would be nice to see.

You might want to have a look here.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Interesting observation, I actually believe Brisbane will only improve from this year with fantastic recruiting over past two years and a complete football department overhaul, not to mention 2 extra draft picks in the first round (compensation) making their drafting position quite strong.

But I am biased and you would be an expert in your knowledge of teams completely f****** and a long way from a flag.

Mate this is the punting board, I don't come on here to talk trash about other teams or talk about how crap my own team is. It's not relevant to any of my bets. If you want to trash Richmond I could not care less and will probably agree with what you are saying.

I strongly disagree that you have had 'fantastic recruiting over that past two years'.

Anyway, as previously mentioned Brisbane are good odds against Freo just need to figure out if I want to bet.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Does any site as good as say covers.com exist for the AFL?

Would be nice to see.

www.allthestats.com is very in depth if you can figure out how to navigate the poorly presented site.

 

[Borgsta]

This seems to be a myth whereby if people say it enough times it must be true.

In the last 5 years, only 5 teams that played semi finals in the NAB cup missed the finals that season. Thats a 75% strike rate.

It gets better for the last 3 years. Only 2 teams have missed the finals meaning the strike rate is 83%.

And at least one of the grand finalists has come from the NAB semi final participants the last 4 seasons.

Write off pre season form at your peril in my opinion. In fact, you should be betting on those teams with momentum as the market has probably under-rated the significance of these matches.

The problem with that is no one is questioning the form of the Saints, Bulldogs, Collingwood and Geelong. They are questioning Melb, Brisbane, Richmond and Freo.

Lets look more closely at Round 1 last year and the NAB.

Bulldogs won the GF - lost in Round 1 to Collingwood
Saints runners up - won by 8 points against Sydney

NAB Challenge Round 3 / Round 1 AFL

Port Adelaide lost by 87 points - won by 14 points against North
Freo lost by 30 points - won by 50 points against Adelaide
Richmond lost by 70 - lost by 60 against Carlton
Carlton lost to Adelaide by 1 point - beat Richmond by 60.
Geelong beat Freo by 30 - beat Essendon by 30
Essendon beat Richmond by 70 - lost to Geelong by 30.
Melbourne lost to WC by 40 - lost to Hawks by 50
Hawks lost to Brisbane by 10 - beat Melb by 50.
Brisbane beat Hawks by 10 - beat WC by 40
WC beat Melb by 40 - lost to Bris by 40
Sydney beat North by 40 - lost to Saints by 10
North Melb lost to Syd by 40 - lost to Port by 14.
Adelaide beat Carlton by 1 - lost to Freo by 60.
Collingwood beat Port by 87 - beat Bulldogs by 30.

So of the 8 that won in the last week of NAB only 3 won in Round 1.

 

[The Mellow Johnies]

Mate this is the punting board, I don't come on here to talk trash about other teams or talk about how crap my own team is. It's not relevant to any of my bets. If you want to trash Richmond I could not care less and will probably agree with what you are saying.

I strongly disagree that you have had 'fantastic recruiting over that past two years'.

Anyway, as previously mentioned Brisbane are good odds against Freo just need to figure out if I want to bet.

Yep totally agree, and apologise, was off topic. I share the same sentiments and want to use this forum to discuss a topic we obviously have a similar interest in...punting on AFL.

All the best!

 

[Daytripper]

The problem with that is no one is questioning the form of the Saints, Bulldogs, Collingwood and Geelong. They are questioning Melb, Brisbane, Richmond and Freo.

Lets look more closely at Round 1 last year and the NAB.

Bulldogs won the GF - lost in Round 1 to Collingwood
Saints runners up - won by 8 points against Sydney

NAB Challenge Round 3 / Round 1 AFL

Port Adelaide lost by 87 points - won by 14 points against North
Freo lost by 30 points - won by 50 points against Adelaide
Richmond lost by 70 - lost by 60 against Carlton
Carlton lost to Adelaide by 1 point - beat Richmond by 60.
Geelong beat Freo by 30 - beat Essendon by 30
Essendon beat Richmond by 70 - lost to Geelong by 30.
Melbourne lost to WC by 40 - lost to Hawks by 50
Hawks lost to Brisbane by 10 - beat Melb by 50.
Brisbane beat Hawks by 10 - beat WC by 40
WC beat Melb by 40 - lost to Bris by 40
Sydney beat North by 40 - lost to Saints by 10
North Melb lost to Syd by 40 - lost to Port by 14.
Adelaide beat Carlton by 1 - lost to Freo by 60.
Collingwood beat Port by 87 - beat Bulldogs by 30.

So of the 8 that won in the last week of NAB only 3 won in Round 1.

But that form more or less correlates to what happened during the season anyway except for perhaps the Port v Nth game.

 

[Dr Awkward]

I don't think it's wise to get overly 'statistical' with NAB form. I think the NAB Cup is more of an observational tool for betting. Use it to make observations of gamestyles or individual players and perhaps make casual observations about team form.

I have noticed that teams that do well in the NAB Cup or over exert themselves can be a little flat in round 1.

 

[Borgsta]

But that form more or less correlates to what happened during the season anyway except for perhaps the Port v Nth game.

Yeah thats the point. The NAB Cup meant jack all when the real stuff started.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Multi 1

Carlton – 9.5 @ $1.56
Geelong / St Kilda Unders @ $1.91 (hoping they wont have it to low but will be a very low scoring game with no Kosi and Chapman. Scotts also said he wants to have more of a defensive game plan then Geelongs gameplan during the last few years)
Bulldogs – 10.5 @ $ 1.92
Sydney +13.5 @ $1.69
North +13.5 @ $1.69

5 units @ $16.34

 

[Daytripper]

I have noticed that teams that do well in the NAB Cup or over exert themselves can be a little flat in round 1.

Hardly - of the 4 teams that made the semi finals last year, 3 of them won (Port, SK & Freo) whilst the other team (WBD) lost to the eventual premiers by just 7 points.

And in hindsight that was an overachievement as clearly Cwood were better than a 7 point gap against WBD.

 

[Borgsta]

36 points. We got hammered.

 

[Daytripper]

36 points. We got hammered.

yes, you're right.

In any case, that score would have been a reasonable reflection of the season I would have thought.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Hardly - of the 4 teams that made the semi finals last year, 3 of them won (Port, SK & Freo) whilst the other team (WBD) lost to the eventual premiers by just 7 points.

And in hindsight that was an overachievement as clearly Cwood were better than a 7 point gap against WBD.

Dogs went into round 1 as favourites last year and I remember watching the game thinking they looked flat, Collingwood was very very sharp. Of course Collingwood went onto become a much better team but at the time it was a minor upset.

Previous year I think it was Collingwood did well in the NAB and lost at home to the unfancied Adelaide, looking very flat.

The potential 'flat' team could be Essendon, but I have a feeling they will be pretty pumped.

 

[mike262]

doing a round 1 multi just need an opinion on 1 leg

Which looks safer collingwood -15.5 or port +73.5

both are 1.20

 

[Gets!]

Multi:

CARLTON straight
COLLINGWOOD over 24.5
ADELAIDE with a 24.5 point handicap

paying $2.46

get on board folks.

 

[Gets!]

doing a round 1 multi just need an opinion on 1 leg

Which looks safer collingwood -15.5 or port +73.5

both are 1.20

Personally I would go the pies -15.5

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Can any one find any under/over markets yet?

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Can any one find any under/over markets yet?

Nothing on Sportspunter yet.

 

[Jammer]

Got to say if its a wet night game at the G.... I will be hedging my Multi with the blues..... Not saying they will not win but does balance out the skill factor....
Have no problems with the Crows wet or dry....

 

[winga26]

Hey,

I'm new to multi betting and would like to know how this below works?

Australian Rules > AFL Round 1 > Carlton vs Richmond - Carlton Straight @1.33 Win/Place


Australian Rules > AFL Round 1 > Collingwood vs Port Adelaide - Collingwood Straight @1.06 Win/Place


Australian Rules > AFL Round 1 > Adelaide vs Hawthorn - Hawthorn Straight @1.80 Win/Place

Australian Rules > AFL Round 1 > Melbourne vs Sydney - Sydney Margin (<39.5) @2.80

As a Yankee Mulitbet with Sportingbet.

Approx Payout (per $1.00): 7.11
Combinations : 11

So I put $2 down which translates to $2 per each of the 11 combination bringing the total to $22 betted.


What happens if 1 or 2 are wrong is that my money gone?


I Appreciate any help guys cheers and hopefully things go well I'm might be taking a punt on a weekly basis.

 

[Purrfect Pussies]

Yankee bet

11 individual bets, consisting of >

1 x 4 leg multi, 4 x 3 leg multis & 6 2 leg multis

4 leg multi would be: 1.33 x 1.06 x 1.80 x 2.80 = $7.80 x $2

A 2 leg multi would be 1.33 x 1.06 = $1.40 x $2

 

[winga26]

Cheers mate, I might put that bet down and see how I go.

 

[Purrfect Pussies]

Cheers mate, I might put that bet down and see how I go.

Ditch the Pies bet. No value in $1.06. Maybe Pies over 39 or something. Good luck.