AFL round 1

[The Big Woofer]

Love all 3 match points totals today:

Port/Coll OVER 188.5
port's last 4 @ the dome 208,222,215,234....they don't defend well & coll will put up a good score, on the flip side i expect port to score at least 10-12 goals in a very open attacking game.

Adelaide/Haw UNDER 169.5
first glance may seem a bit low on a nice night but the last 3 times these teams have met @ night is averaged 151, i fully expect Adl to put numbers behind the ball to support Davis & Rutten with Haw's big boys.....at the other end Adl has no tippett & will rely more on small forwards to kick a score, i feel 85 pts wins this game.

Brisbane/Frem OVER 180.5
I marked the game @ 190.5 usually night games at the GABBA produce high scores in good weather & i don't see either side having a tight defence, i expect open free flowing game where the winner kicks 100+.

 

[adii_7]

TBW- port coll i dont think is going over.. port are good defensively, lack somewhat in attack.. Also collingwood are inaccurate.. with the pressure collingwood will place on port, they wont have more then 15 shots at goal.

adelaide hawthorn could go over, hawthorn terrible defence, but quality coming into and around attack.. could be open this time.

Brisbane Frem - Could be anything

 

[The Big Woofer]

TBW- port coll i dont think is going over.. port are good defensively, lack somewhat in attack.. Also collingwood are inaccurate.. with the pressure collingwood will place on port, they wont have more then 15 shots at goal.

adelaide hawthorn could go over, hawthorn terrible defence, but quality coming into and around attack.. could be open this time.

Brisbane Frem - Could be anything

Duely noted.....

but did you consider that collingwood's pressure will force port into turnovers & quick scores? And port are not good in defence at all--when they lose they often lose big.

 

[Moses01]

had $15 on riewold 1st goal last night, and had $2 on goddard at about $30 on sportingbet, and got paid out for both - 1st and 2nd goal. strange since I thought the 2nd goal insurance only applied on bets of $15 or over, and only on the 1st bet you place on the market.. but I aint complaining. I only had $10 on jRiewoldt on thurs night but got paid out for his 2nd goal as well. Weird, but i aint complaining

 

[adii_7]

to be honest, the unders in all games is a good bet because A) everyone is more defensive. B) round 1. C) No-one wants a blow out round 1.

Collingwood are fairly inaccurate, and port adelaide do have a acceptable defence.. Pies could win by 100 here.. i dunno, i'd just leave it.

Adelaide have long running goal scorers that could hurt hawthorn.. Hawthorn have the best forward line in the game..

Brisbane will be no good this year, fremantle will be slow to start off.. just a matter of how much freo will win by i think?

 

[scottyjc]

Port/Coll OVER 188.5
port's last 4 @ the dome 208,222,215,234....they don't defend well & coll will put up a good score, on the flip side i expect port to score at least 10-12 goals in a very open attacking game.

Woofer, if you are keen to back yourself in there are some interesting prices on the TAB.

I think we all agree Coll will score 121+, so then it is just a matter of picking Ports score.

If you are confident they will score those 10-12 goals, you can get some better odds than the $1.87 over/unders.

COL 121+ Pt/PtA 61-75 Pt 7.00
COL 121+ Pt/PtA 76-90 Pt 7.00
COL 121+ Pt/PtA 91-105 Pt 11.00

A unit on each of them will net you a minimum of four units profit back

And if not so confident of course you can take the insurance of:

COL 121+ Pt/PtA 0-60 Pt 4.00

Which will break you even should it get up.

And then hope they don't score 106+!!!

 

[The Big Woofer]

Woofer, if you are keen to back yourself in there are some interesting prices on the TAB.

I think we all agree Coll will score 121+, so then it is just a matter of picking Ports score.

If you are confident they will score those 10-12 goals, you can get some better odds than the $1.87 over/unders.

COL 121+ Pt/PtA 61-75 Pt 7.00
COL 121+ Pt/PtA 76-90 Pt 7.00
COL 121+ Pt/PtA 91-105 Pt 11.00

A unit on each of them will net you a minimum of four units profit back

And if not so confident of course you can take the insurance of:

COL 121+ Pt/PtA 0-60 Pt 4.00

Which will break you even should it get up.

And then hope they don't score 106+!!!

Scotty, you are right on to a type of bet i used to take back in the day when dick head unitab had this type of offering, its good when as you say you're keen on the fav kicking a big score, i have accounts with various bookies & Unitab but not vic tab....if you go hard at the 61-75 & 76-90 options i reckon you'll be on a winner.

The reason i think port will have some success scoring is the venue, at this venue it will be much easier for them to get inside collingwood's defensive 50m, coll restrict teams really well at the MCG but that venue is easier to prevent inside 50's for coll as its bigger & not as fast as the dome.

 

[The Big Woofer]

to be honest, the unders in all games is a good bet because A) everyone is more defensive. B) round 1. C) No-one wants a blow out round 1.

Collingwood are fairly inaccurate, and port adelaide do have a acceptable defence.. Pies could win by 100 here.. i dunno, i'd just leave it.

Adelaide have long running goal scorers that could hurt hawthorn.. Hawthorn have the best forward line in the game..

Brisbane will be no good this year, fremantle will be slow to start off.. just a matter of how much freo will win by i think?

Adi, have an opinion by all means but here are the facts on Port Adelaide's defence....
Last 2 years they have allowed per game 96 & 102 so the average score allowed last 2 years is 99 points per game!
if you just take the stats from their games at the Dome is gets far uglier.

the bris v frem game is by no means a forgone conclusion.

 

[Sasquatch]

8 units Collingwood v Port Adelaide - Over 188.5 @ $1.90 - This has a high scoring match written all over it. Indoors, perfect conditions.

4 units Hawthorn v Adelaide - Under 169.5 @ $1.90 (When was the last time a Saturday night game at AAMI stadium was high scoring???? A lot of dew on the ground at night there.)

3 units Hawthorn @ $1.91 - They have the better team here. Adelaide don't.

5 units Brisbane @ $2.05 - I have done a huge flip on this one. I was leaning Fremantle earlier in the week, but then realised that Brisbane haven't lost their first game at the Gabba for 12 years. Fremantle have a shit record at the Gabba and are carrying a lot of injuries. Even though we will fight out the spoon with West Coast we should get over the Dockers.

2 units Boak more DT points than Cornes and Thomas @ $2.60
2 units Sidebottom more DT points than Shaw and Salopek @ $2.90
2 units Burgoyne more DT points than Lewis and Douglas @ $2.80

 

[twarby]

i agree on the unders for the Hawks match, and will be playing that.


my leans would be the overs for the other too, but no bet, they look good though TBW.


took Swan most disposals yesterday @ 4s

Dockers -1.5 @ 2.00

 

[GoodesStuff]

Lions -1.5 @ 2.00

You mean Dockers -1.5 @ 2.00

 

[smiddaz123]

1.5 Units on 1st quarter - Collingwood total behinds over 3.5 $2.10.

Would expect Collingwood to get plenty of scoring opportunities, and be their usual innacurate selves. Skills will still be a bit off as well, so I'd expect some behinds.

 

[twarby]

1.5 Units on 1st quarter - Collingwood total behinds over 3.5 $2.10.

Would expect Collingwood to get plenty of scoring opportunities, and be their usual innacurate selves. Skills will still be a bit off as well, so I'd expect some behinds.

at Etihad they arn't too bad

 

[happy_punter]

pies/power over 187.5 (sportsbet)

 

[adii_7]

didak useless..

good to see swan getting early touches (Y)

port doing okay

 

[KardiniaPark]

to be honest, the unders in all games is a good bet because A) everyone is more defensive. B) round 1. C) No-one wants a blow out round 1.

Collingwood are fairly inaccurate, and port adelaide do have a acceptable defence.. Pies could win by 100 here.. i dunno, i'd just leave it.

Adelaide have long running goal scorers that could hurt hawthorn.. Hawthorn have the best forward line in the game..

Brisbane will be no good this year, fremantle will be slow to start off.. just a matter of how much freo will win by i think?

[youtube]I5zEP4kvfnc[/youtube]

 

[twarby]

took Swan most disposals yesterday @ 4s

silly promotion centrebet

Rockliff > Black DT pts @2.00
Adelaide ML @ 2.00
Rioli > Johncock DT @ 1.90
Michael Osborne FGS for Hawthorn @ 11
Lewis > Sewell Disposals @ 1.80

 

[twarby]

sportsalive

 

[baywatch5]

ML- HAWKS (x1)
ATS - BULLDOGS -8.5 (x2)
ML - SWANS (x1)

 

[Borgsta]

twarby signed up to www.sportsalive.com.au for DT betting.

EDIT; beaten to the punch.

 

[happy_punter]

Hawks -5.5 @2.10
Hawks/Crows OVER 168.5 @1.88

All sportsbet

 

[The Big Woofer]

its pretty windy at footy park, about 30kmph winds, i feel this plays to the under....& i think it helps Adelaide with their small forwards.

Under 169.5
Adl win $1.95

 

[TurboBreuster]

0.9U CARL 1-39 @2.2

0.15U 1st goal J Garlett @14

0.1U 1st goal M Morton @20

1.7U Geelong +6.5 @2

0.6U PIES -44.5 @2

1.1U Pies/port >188.5 @1.9

0.7U FREO ATS @2
I meant to write ML but did it in a rush and accidentally wrote ATS

1.7U MEL -6.5 @2

1.7U WBD -10.5 @2

This would easily be my best ever 1st round of AFL. I will not play any Hawks games this year unless a Freo in Tassie situation arises again.

 

[happy_punter]

also, FREO -18.5 @3.00

 

[Lensen]

Most goals in tomorrow's games:
1/6 unit Stack @ $34
1/6 unit Giansiracusa @ $13
1/6 unit Grant @ $13

0.5 unit Dunn @ $15

1/6 unit Harvey @ $34
1/3 unit Wright @ $26