AFL Round 20

[tibor]

Havnt bet on then yet. The kangaroos vs GWS game is in canberra though. Startrack oval IIRC has low scoring games?

Both games there this year, and all but one last year have cleared 190. That said, GWS are a better team now, so take the history at the ground with a grain of salt.

 

[Keystone agony]

Change of mind on that one. Still will back hawks in for a 120-130 score.

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Multi
Sydney H2H at $1.45
Richmond ATL +12.5 at 1.9
North H2H at $1.16
St Kilda ATL +37.5 at $1.55

$30 at $5. Thoughts?

 

[Keystone agony]

Multi
Sydney H2H at $1.45
Richmond ATL +12.5 at 1.9
North H2H at $1.16
St Kilda ATL +37.5 at $1.55

$30 at $5. Thoughts?

Dont think good odds for saints. Dont trust north but they have to win.

 

[TheKanga]

Alot of Richmond love

 

[Good Bloke]

Best tip for the weekend and an absolute certain lock.


What ever I punt on go the opposite.

 

[Keystone agony]

Multi:
Rich 1-24
Hawks vs Melb TML > 170.5
Hawks -48.5
Sydney SU
Adel SU
WBD vs Stk <185.5
Coll vs WCE <170.5

@101~

0.5U

 

[Keystone agony]

Early player exotic:

1U Deledio <107.5 SC @1.75

Hocking tag

 

[balmainforever]

Alot of Richmond love

Really don't understand why.

 

[TheKanga]

Really don't understand why.

Same here, they have been impressive lately but Essendon are finals bound and I think are playing tough footy under Bomber Thompson.

 

[TheKanga]

Think it's a bit risky hoping to return 5U on line bets, if your units are indeed 1-2% of your bankroll.
My Max bets are 5U and they are quite rare, 1-2 times a month.

Anyway, I like the GWS at the line but not so sue about the Bombers. Just have a feeling the Tigers turn up this week.

Yeah are probably right but i had few wins so maybe got carried away.
I normally only put 3u on line bets for a 2.7u return just wanted to make it a bit more worthwhile.
My 5u isn't very big btw, maybe i should up my unit size haha

I think the GWS game could end up being like the clash from 2012
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=5540

I'm not sure why but i have this strange feeling Essendon will come flying out the blocks.
Carlisle and Chappy to kick a few each.

 

[Keystone agony]

Same here, they have been impressive lately but Essendon are finals bound and I think are playing tough footy under Bomber Thompson.

Richmond are 1 win behind Essendon if they beat them Friday. Thy have won 5/6 in a row. Beating A top 5 side, WCE away which showed good form lines ect

Its gonna be a tight tussle. Bombers aren't in that great form. No Daniher, Watson, Hibberd from last time they played. TBC is only playing because they have to and is so under done it isn't funny. Bombers still cant kick a score and Rance is a good defender this year and should be able to contain slightly injured Carlisle.

 

[Cashmoney13]

either, in their 5 game streak they havnt beaten anyone above 11th have they?

Think I will do a rolling multi including essendon SU here, I also like;
Swans -11.5 - too much up forward for port, inside v outside battle in the mid should tell the story
Freo SU - yes i am still one of those clinging to the fact geelong arent that good, enjoyed the win on freo earlier this year, dockers dont seem to mind skilled.
St Kilda/Dogs U - Keep it low scoring is st kildas chance to win, the line also looks okay for the saints with the dogs tendancy to go missing offensivly

 

[Redacted Boner]

First glance leans

Essendon -11.5
Carlton 1-39
Hawks to cover whatever and a shot on 100+
North - who knows, I might tip GWS
Cats 1-39
Swans 1-39
Adelaide -12.5
Bulldogs 1-39
Eagles H2H

 

[TheKanga]

Line coming in for Saints

 

[the_big_sav]

Hawks line
syd line
adel line
geel win

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Line coming in for Saints

As expected I feel. Line for tigers game has come in also

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Multi
Sydney H2H at $1.45
Richmond ATL +12.5 at 1.9
North H2H at $1.16
St Kilda ATL +37.5 at $1.55

$30 at $5. Thoughts?

Line has since come in for the Saints game. Yep just think the roos have to get it done, much better team

 

[Big Fozza]

Liking St kilda.

1u Stk @ 4
2u stk -27.5 @ 1.92
1u Stk 40+ @ 22
.25 rewioldt most goals for round @ 17

Thinking the lenny factor will get them over the line. And because they shown they can go large against freo 2 weeks ago I think $22 is value. I know they got thumped last week but this is at ES.

Will probably get on reiwoldt for most goals as well

Edit: added 1u to the line and the most goals for the round which is just a silly bet

 

[Big Fozza]

2u geelong -14.5 @ 1.92
1u geelong 1-39 @ 2.05
1u exact margin 20-39 @ 4.3

Cats at home should be too good for freo and I think margin will be about 25 points. I'm sure bias is in play tho

Edit: added exact margin bet

 

[Willzzz]

2.5U – St Kilda Saints +27.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)

Love my Doggies but can't resist the +27.5 on offer for a team that plays well at Etihad against a team that hasn't blown any team out of the water.

 

[Keystone agony]

Wish i took the 30.5 at the start. Not sure i like it enough at 27.5 right now. Although i sort of still do.

 

[TheKanga]

Liking St kilda.

1u Stk @ 4
2u stk -27.5 @ 1.92
1u Stk 40+ @ 22
.25 rewioldt most goals for round @ 17

Thinking the lenny factor will get them over the line. And because they shown they can go large against freo 2 weeks ago I think $22 is value. I know they got thumped last week but this is at ES.

Will probably get on reiwoldt for most goals as well

Edit: added 1u to the line and the most goals for the round which is just a silly bet

Very much on the same page here
Good bets

 

[Keystone agony]

2U Stkilda +27.5 @1.92

Went with it, sometimes im too stubborn when I miss better value or lines.

 

[Keystone agony]

$6.20

Ess, Syd, Adel SU
Stk +27.5 , hawks -48.5
TML: WCE vs Coll <170.5 , WBD vs STK <185.5, Ess vs Rich <163.5, Hawks vs Melb > 170.5

@161 (+40%)