AFL Round 4.

[mike262]

50 free bet (from geelong being highest scoring losing team) on:

WCE/Bris/Coll/Geel/StK

at 7.51

Come On!!

 

[Gets!]

Just need Melb and Geelong to win and I clean up in a multi

 

[Cuzz09]

I think Port will be competitive vs Cats.

Same with Richmond and Fremantle.

Geelong 1-39
Melbourne 1-39
St.Kilda 1-39

$5 @ $11.13

Just a little Sunday multi

 

[mockingbeat]

Feeling better about Richmond today, expecting them to notch up first win.

 

[Rough_Edges]

As long as Richmond can stay within 4 goals i'll hit at least one of my multis.

And the other one gets up if Saints + Geelong win.

 

[BoxaBoi]

Melbourne / Melbourne Half Time Full Time double
$1.64 on betfair
money for jam

 

[YIIIABLETTT]

Not convinced they'll win but the tigers odds are too long i reckon, $20 on them at $3.80

 

[adii_7]

Not convinced they'll win but the tigers odds are too long i reckon, $20 on them at $3.80

they might... MIGHT just start favourites vs bendigo bombers

3.80 for richmond is probally unders haha

 

[jefffff34]

My formula (3/3 100% success rate so far) has determined that without Riewoldt and Koschitzke, Milne will kick most goals in tonight's late game.

It decided his true value was $5.59, so to get him at $7 on Sportingbet...I'm not particularly complaining.

I also have a multi on Melbourne/Geelong/St.Kilda/Brisbane Broncos at $2.51...should be easy money.

 

[Schmucta]

Man U win 1-0

He got it right

Haha yes he did, funny that

haha wats ur prob schmucta... disapointed i posted b4 the event... cat

At the 87th min mark with scores at 0-0 hardly constitutes BEFORE the event.

Like I have said before, your strike rate when you post before the event is atrocious compared to when you don't.

I don't have a problem with it though, it makes me laugh, hence my Lol comment.

 

[mickeyblueeyes37]

If ya have 5 bucks on a tipstar 8 how much will tht pay ?

 

[Gets!]

Just need Melb and Geelong to win and I clean up in a multi

You ripper!

Have turned my original $60 deposit before round 1 into $990.

 

[tarky]

long shot bet for this round.

west coast -10.5
north melbourne +11.5
adelaide
bulldogs
hawthorn
richmond +21.5
geelong
st kilda

20 @ 80-1

just missed that one by a whisker

 

[adii_7]

just missed that one by a whisker

very close.

worst weekend for me...

dogs could of cleaned it all up for me..

down and out for the week.

 

[Cuzz09]

Yeah Adelaide stuffed me up this round........... AGAIN!

"I thought the Crows were due!"

I did win $170 from $5 as I somehow fluked West Coast 23-24 @ $34

So came out on top but Friday night seems so long ago it feels like a loss

 

[Lensen]

I'm a little fearful of this week as my system's thrown 6 games at me worth betting on. Still, I have to have confidence in it!

My current balance for the year is +$1.43, raking in the big bucks! This week:

$100.10* on West Coast @ $1.6015
$100 on North Melbourne @ $2.5897
$100 on Adelaide @ $1.9336
$100 on Brisbane @ $2.0027
$100 on Richmond @ $3.6386
$100 on St Kilda @ $1.3654

*due to only being able to bet $68.10 on the odds I wanted at Betfair, and the next best were Sportsbet where I had to bet whole dollar amounts.

Make or break week, potentially. Still, I'm pretty confident with them all at the odds - WC & St Kilda are almost certainties in my book, Brisbane @ $2+ at home with Brownvola is enticing, North are coming together ok and I like @ $2.50+ (and haven't lost to Sydney in Melbourne for 14 years ), Carlton I don't rate at all and Adelaide need to bounce back, whilst I've just got a funny feeling about Richmond that this is their big week given Hardwick's big crackdown and that they've been under the pump. Any team $3.50 against Melbourne is worth having a crack at I reckon.

This time next week I'll potentially be wiped out though so we'll see

EDIT: And my weekly challenge is up to $30.39 - going on the Saints to win $11.46

Fairly ordinary week puts me down $101.55 for the year (just over 1 unit). Still time to come back.

The losses weren't even close though which is somewhat worrying.

 

[lions_den]

Best week of the year so far with predictable results.

 

[Island Bomber]

Just discovered Centrebet pick your own line (have previously been using Tab) it's helped me to two winning weekends in a row. Dogs +24.5 was the clincher in my multi.

For those that don't use it and keep getting smashed by the crap Tab betting options and prices l highly recommend it.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Now this is the round of betting that I have been waiting for... some real special value imo, these are my early thoughts:

Sydney should definately win against Kangaroos, I think North are a really poor side this year and am keen to back Sydney in some form, probably H2H and then include in a multi.

WB look like value to me, their midfield is just so much better than Brisbane's and I think the Dogs are travelling alright since round 1. Brisbane don't seem to match up that well against them on paper I think Dogs will slice them up in the middle and will get good value from the forwards. Some significant outs for Brisbane also. I like the fact that Dogs have 22 players with experience and Brisbane still have a couple of youngun's who wont match it. Not overly confident though, so only a small/medium sized bet on this game for me.

WC v Ess No opinion, dont like WC forward line but not willing to bet against them despite thinking Essendon are a better team. I think WC will be desperate to win at home this week. No bet.

Rich v Melb: Melbourne are too short, but then so are Richmond lol.

Geel v Port: Geelong certainties but not getting involved

Ecstatic to have already got $1.94 for Collingwood on Betfair. Although I would like to have a bit more on so might take the $1.7. I still rate Collingwood really highly and Hawthorn just have too many obstacles/interruptions with players injured and now Buddy out. Plus I have said all year that I think they are overrated. Main thing holding me back is Hawks good record against collingwood but honestly their forward line isnt very good at the moment and their backline is pretty shaky as well. Plus I think they will have about 5 players with less than 15 games playing whereas Pies wont have any. Pies too good for me.

Adel v Carl: Definately not spending any money on Adelaide only question is if I can back Carlton. Probably not, considering their forward line is poor and their recent record against Ade is poor. I think it will be a tight game.

StK v Freo St Kilda should be about $1.10 in my book. Will be backing them in some form. They are a far superior side to Freo and they just know how to churn out the wins at Ethihad against these types of teams. Freo have been good but no way do they have a list that is capable of backing up that effort against Geelong with an away win against hard bodied saints. Extra 2 days break for Saints only helps, I think they will win comfortably.

Just a bit of self-congratulation, massive week for me, had the three H2H bets on the teams in bold and had them in a multi also .

Only slight surprises were Brisbane win and competitiveness of Freo. Feel like I have a good grip on the teams now, lets see if the value continues next week.