AFL Round 4.

[KikidadidaK]

Betting on Richmond? Based on what?

Melbourne have been playing well for the past two weeks - and gave a fight against Hawthorn but gave up too easily.

What have Richmond done?

I think you're throwing your money away betting on the Tiges - and I can't wish you good luck because i know I'll be on Melbourne in some way.

i rate this as just a big of a test as playing against the a top team for a young side like melbourne...easier to get up for a match against a top 8 team...

when was the last time they were $1.30 in a game???will be won above the shoulders i think...

 

[mattys123]

I'd maybe take a line on the tigers with a headstart, but they simply will not win, or at least probably won't win unless Melbourne fall apart on the day (injuries, terrible play etc).

I rated the Dees at about 1.50 with about a 15 point spread, anything more is just ridiculous for a team that has won something like 14 games in 3 years.

West Coast and Geelong are bets of the week for mine, Geelong are certs to win, while it's basically season and respect on the line for WCE at home.

 

[cynical]

i wouldnt be betting on melbourne @1.30, richmond are bad but melbourne arent much better

they are both young sides and if the tigers can win in the midfield they are a good chance

also melbourne have won a game so pressure is off them, while for the tigers this might be their only chance for a win in a long time

 

[McCrann]

i wouldnt be betting on melbourne @1.30, richmond are bad but melbourne arent much better

they are both young sides and if the tigers can win in the midfield they are a good chance

also melbourne have won a game so pressure is off them, while for the tigers this might be their only chance for a win in a long time

Maybe - but pressure will go straight back onto Melbourne if they can't win this game. Win this game and pressure is off for a few weeks at least.

Melbourne's run isn't that bad either.

Melbourne v Brisbane (MCG) - A rough chance
Melbourne v North Melbourne (Etihad) - Gotta be some chance even though we all know they don't like Etihad
Melbourne v W. Bulldogs (MCG) - Will lose this
Melbourne v West Coast (MCG) - A good chance
Melbourne v Port Adelaide (MCG) - Another good chance

At this point they could well be 6 Wins & 3 Losses - I've seen crazier things. Even 5 & 4 or 4 & 5 is a damn good result given Melbourne's recent history.

 

[pacemaker]

$90 on Sydney / St kilda should be the bet of the week at over $2

 

[banana_bus]

Sportingbet have St Kilda @ 2.20 to be the last team left undefeated.

Free money.

 

[mike262]

Only bets this week are:

$100k on Cats and Saints double @1.51, and
$100k on Dogs @1.85, and
$30K on Sydney/Adelaide/Dogs @5.26, and
$200k on Cats @1.15

just confirming 100k means $100 000? and etc.?

and here i am thinking im betting large with 1k on saints last week.

GL id bet on all the same except for sydney and adelaide.

 

[RoosterLad]

Just easing into the season I see joxstrap.

Love the "only bets" line when he has put down almost half a mill.

 

[Commando]

hawks will beat pies
cats are certainties

 

[Lensen]

Betting on Richmond? Based on what?

Melbourne have been playing well for the past two weeks - and gave a fight against Hawthorn but gave up too easily.

What have Richmond done?

I think you're throwing your money away betting on the Tiges - and I can't wish you good luck because i know I'll be on Melbourne in some way.

Fair post. I should explain.

've spent a considerable amount of time (some of which I may have been meant to do other things, like fulfil my employment ) devising a spreadsheet, the data of which is used to frame a market using a number of variables.

I don't particularly want to give away what those variables are but I've tested it on results for the last three years and it's returned 120+ winners each year. Furthermore, I've then tested my market against the weighted Betfair average (minus the commission) and in games where my system advises that teams are over the odds, I'm ahead each season by between 7 and 10 units.

I will admit though that it's not an optimal spreadsheet and does have some kinks, one of which is that it is unreliable (read: unprofitable) at selecting away winners. So even when the system tells me that away teams are overs, I will ignore those bets.

This week it has Richmond at about $1.80ish - so by no means certain but given the system's been profitable for three years I'm happy to back it in.

But even before I put the data in this week I was leaning Richmond at $3+ - I think there's enough doubt about whether Melbourne can handle being so widely expected to win, whilst Richmond have been very poor I don't think they're bad enough to not win a game and this seems to be as good a chance as any. The suspensions will either galvanise or gut out this side, but given they've been as poor as probably they can be I'm confident they'll put in a strong showing this week. It's not the best example but the Pies were outsiders against St Kilda after suspending Shaw/Didak and it galvanised the side and they won comfortably.

Melbourne are now slightly overrated IMO after running a pathetic Collingwood outfit close and then running over an Adelaide side that had injuries and has been poor as well.

Melbourne only had 1 goal on the board until half time last week - Adelaide ran out of legs. The Crows hold on there and it's probably a $1.70-$2.10 game.

 

[mike262]

Interesting fact. (From Champion Data)

West Coast had the highest effective disposal % of all teams on the w/e.

If they can keep this up and not completely butcher the ball when they do stuff up the 1.55 against essendon looks even better

 

[Island Bomber]

Only bets this week are:

$100k on Cats and Saints double @1.51, and
$100k on Dogs @1.85, and
$30K on Sydney/Adelaide/Dogs @5.26, and
$200k on Cats @1.15

If l saw the tickets then i'd believe it, l know if l was spending 430K l wouldn't be bothering to post it on an internet forum. I'd have better things to do with my time

 

[GoodesStuff]

Fair post. I should explain.

've spent a considerable amount of time (some of which I may have been meant to do other things, like fulfil my employment ) devising a spreadsheet, the data of which is used to frame a market using a number of variables.

I don't particularly want to give away what those variables are but I've tested it on results for the last three years and it's returned 120+ winners each year. Furthermore, I've then tested my market against the weighted Betfair average (minus the commission) and in games where my system advises that teams are over the odds, I'm ahead each season by between 7 and 10 units.

I will admit though that it's not an optimal spreadsheet and does have some kinks, one of which is that it is unreliable (read: unprofitable) at selecting away winners. So even when the system tells me that away teams are overs, I will ignore those bets.

This week it has Richmond at about $1.80ish - so by no means certain but given the system's been profitable for three years I'm happy to back it in.

But even before I put the data in this week I was leaning Richmond at $3+ - I think there's enough doubt about whether Melbourne can handle being so widely expected to win, whilst Richmond have been very poor I don't think they're bad enough to not win a game and this seems to be as good a chance as any. The suspensions will either galvanise or gut out this side, but given they've been as poor as probably they can be I'm confident they'll put in a strong showing this week. It's not the best example but the Pies were outsiders against St Kilda after suspending Shaw/Didak and it galvanised the side and they won comfortably.

Melbourne are now slightly overrated IMO after running a pathetic Collingwood outfit close and then running over an Adelaide side that had injuries and has been poor as well.

Melbourne only had 1 goal on the board until half time last week - Adelaide ran out of legs. The Crows hold on there and it's probably a $1.70-$2.10 game.

Its interesting seeing peoples views on backing Richmond. By backing them head to head is this as a long term plan to win money (1 in every 3 attempts) as opposed to the safer option of taking the more likely three goal head start?

 

[asanque]

If l saw the tickets then i'd believe it, l know if l was spending 430K l wouldn't be bothering to post it on an internet forum. I'd have better things to do with my time

Well he did have $1 mill on the Saints -15.5 last week

 

[foxy_dal]

I like the Kangaroos chances this week. Seems a lot are on Sydney but I just have this feeling the Roos will have bounced back from the 100 point loss the other week and I'm not convinced on the Swans. Roos to cover the line at least.

 

[Lensen]

Its interesting seeing peoples views on backing Richmond. By backing them head to head is this as a long term plan to win money (1 in every 3 attempts) as opposed to the safer option of taking the more likely three goal head start?

Yeah pretty much. Isn't that the point though? To win overall?

 

[adii_7]

Sportingbet have St Kilda @ 2.20 to be the last team left undefeated.

Free money.

$2.10 at tab. im on (Y)

 

[dUkezz]

obviusly joxstrapp is joking jeez some people take some things a tad too seriusly

 

[GoodesStuff]

Yeah pretty much. Isn't that the point though? To win overall?

Ja its something Im looking at. Especially if a team has a two goal headstart- thats a very skinny margin to work with. Value would have to be with taking the outsider and thus working towards winning overall.

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

I like the Kangaroos chances this week. Seems a lot are on Sydney but I just have this feeling the Roos will have bounced back from the 100 point loss the other week and I'm not convinced on the Swans. Roos to cover the line at least.

What have North done exactly? I have them around the top of the bottom 4, where I think WCE and Port will end up this year. Swans have given the Saints a run for their money, beaten the Crows at AAMI and smashed the Tigers. The Kangas are coming off two straight weeks at the Dome and don't have anywhere near the class to match the top teams (see the Saints game). I'd be disappointed if the Swans didn't get up by 5-goals+. They are top 4 this year for me, have impressed me far more than the Pies, Lions and Hawks at this stage.

 

[McCrann]

Well he did have $1 mill on the Saints -15.5 last week

Geez, its a good bookie who'll take that sort of bet.

 

[The Big Woofer]

What have North done exactly? I have them around the top of the bottom 4, where I think WCE and Port will end up this year. Swans have given the Saints a run for their money, beaten the Crows at AAMI and smashed the Tigers. The Kangas are coming off two straight weeks at the Dome and don't have anywhere near the class to match the top teams (see the Saints game). I'd be disappointed if the Swans didn't get up by 5-goals+. They are top 4 this year for me, have impressed me far more than the Pies, Lions and Hawks at this stage.

Yep I am with this line of thought. Sydney are a top 8 team & could be a top 4 team if coll & haw don't fire.....you only have to watch the way Sydney are using the ball to know they are for real. Their wins over Adelaide & Richmond may not seem that flash but they were highly impressive & were very good vs stk.

Sydney best bet of the round both to win $1.58 & -10.5

 

[McCrann]

Fair post. I should explain.

've spent a considerable amount of time (some of which I may have been meant to do other things, like fulfil my employment ) devising a spreadsheet, the data of which is used to frame a market using a number of variables.

I don't particularly want to give away what those variables are but I've tested it on results for the last three years and it's returned 120+ winners each year. Furthermore, I've then tested my market against the weighted Betfair average (minus the commission) and in games where my system advises that teams are over the odds, I'm ahead each season by between 7 and 10 units.

I will admit though that it's not an optimal spreadsheet and does have some kinks, one of which is that it is unreliable (read: unprofitable) at selecting away winners. So even when the system tells me that away teams are overs, I will ignore those bets.

This week it has Richmond at about $1.80ish - so by no means certain but given the system's been profitable for three years I'm happy to back it in.

But even before I put the data in this week I was leaning Richmond at $3+ - I think there's enough doubt about whether Melbourne can handle being so widely expected to win, whilst Richmond have been very poor I don't think they're bad enough to not win a game and this seems to be as good a chance as any. The suspensions will either galvanise or gut out this side, but given they've been as poor as probably they can be I'm confident they'll put in a strong showing this week. It's not the best example but the Pies were outsiders against St Kilda after suspending Shaw/Didak and it galvanised the side and they won comfortably.

Melbourne are now slightly overrated IMO after running a pathetic Collingwood outfit close and then running over an Adelaide side that had injuries and has been poor as well.

Melbourne only had 1 goal on the board until half time last week - Adelaide ran out of legs. The Crows hold on there and it's probably a $1.70-$2.10 game.

Thanks for the explanation - I appreciate as a punting person anyone who goes to the time of devising systems - I do the same.

Good luck with the system - as someone else said, you may be cutting back your profit, but why not back Richmond at the line?

I think there's no doubt Melbourne are too short, maybe they should be about $1.55 in my book - but to me that still means they're pretty likely to win.

The other thing about this game is - this year for Melbourne is all about proving that the last few years are over and they're ready to return to the winner's list. I think the last two weeks, and of course last week in particular, showed that.

Sure, they were poor to half time against the Crows - but the fact they kept fighting on against the bigger bodies of Adelaide and notched a come from behind win will give them plenty of belief that they'll never be out of this game against Richmond.

This year for Richmond is simply about playing the kids. Win/Loss won't be taken into account. We've seen what that mentality does to clubs - it certainly makes them less likely to win - even if we're going to be charitable and not call it "tanking."

For me - I'll probably have a nibble on Melbourne (1-39) becuase they're probably not good enough to blow Richmond away, but I just can't see them losing.

Just to clarify Drew?(Andy?) are you saying Collingwood this year are "pathetic" or just their performance against Melbourne?

I think they're good things this week. Collingwood (-9.5).

 

[mattys123]

I don't think Richmond to win is the worst bet in the world, and the line betting is great for them.

Did anyone see the last quarter between Melbourne and Adelaide?

Adelaide had 4 injured players on the bench, and could only manage a point, while Melbourne, who had at least 21 fit players, couldn't kick a goal (and didn't look like kicking one) for 23 minutes.

The standard of that Melbourne/Adelaide game was woeful for the whole game, and I would say Richmond may have even won against Adelaide last week, or at least gone close.

I'll definitely be taking the line for Richmond this week, Centerbet have it set at 21.5, that's just silly to me, for a team that has won one game this year, and no more then 15 in 3 years.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Sportingbet have St Kilda @ 2.20 to be the last team left undefeated.

Free money.

That is very good odds. Although St Kilda don't have the easiest games coming up. But if all goes to plan you could be collecting on that one by the end of this wkend. Trying to get on that on betfair at the moment. If anyone of you guys want to match me I'm sitting there at $2.26 at the moment

Just a word of advice for people betting on the Richmond game: I think it is a better idea to bet on them with some sort of line. Richmond are not in the frame of mind to win a game at the moment. They need to do what Melbourne have done: come out get really close and have a heart breaking loss and then they will be ready to win. At the moment they havnt even shown a hint of competitveness. Rarely do crap teams just come up and win after being smashed for 3 weeks previously.

So this week I think Richmond might be competitive and cover a line, but Melbourne will win the game. Actually having a look at it, Melbourne to win by under 39.5pts @ $2.2 looks like good odds to me.

ALSO- Get on Sydney + St Kilda