AFL round 8

[RoosterLad]

can someone please explain to me how the line bets work?

What tarky said. It is a handicap basically so Geelong -19.5 means the game starts with Brisbane 0 Geelong -19.5.

 

[SaintsPremiers08]

Or Brisbane 19.5 to Geelong 0

 

[RoosterLad]

Or Brisbane 19.5 to Geelong 0

Touche!

 

[lions_den]

Pods out which nullifies Merrett not getting up, and if the Chapman rumour is true (which I highly doubt) then I think we're a good shot at winning this one.

 

[happy_punter]

someone work out the math for me if you understand the question

if you have 8 matches, with 4 selections for each match, picking 1 selection each from each match for 8 selections, how many total combinations would there be ?

 

[GoodesStuff]

someone work out the math for me if you understand the question

if you have 8 matches, with 4 selections for each match, picking 1 selection each from each match for 8 selections, how many total combinations would there be ?

if i understand right it would be

8C4 = 70 selections

 

[hot dogs]

reckon you could reword that question? you lose me at 'picking 1 selection each from each match for 8 selections'

 

[happy_punter]

reckon you could reword that question? you lose me at 'picking 1 selection each from each match for 8 selections'

4 selection options per match, 8 matches, 1 selection each, multi of 8, how many combinations would there be?

 

[McCrann]

Carlton smashed Geelong and St. Kilda the 2 grand finalists from last season. In between those 2 floggings the pies smashed Carlton by 10 goals. Like Ive said, the pies love interstate night games. Plus Freo have to deal with B2B 6 day breaks, and had the long trip from Perth to the other side of the country, and back again in the last week. Freo will run out of legs IMO.

The 1.87 looks too good to pass up, and will be having a good go at that straight out & into the Dogs. Think I will just include the 40+ (which will be about 6.00-6.50) in my weekend multi.

Yep - and Collingwood have B2B 6 day breaks as well - plus they're travelling across the country and their form is due some sort of "let-up."

Definitely too close to call for me and I will not be touching it. Freo gunning for top of the ladder for the first time in their history!

 

[KardiniaPark]

I would like to suggest to all to bet cautiously for this round.

This has "the bookies r*ped me" all over it come Sunday evening.

There is not one selection that I would say load up on.

I agree to a point BUT in margin betting there is an absolute moral multi. I'll leave six games be this week, just don't want to touch them. What I do like is hawthorn and Geelong. Take them both over 39.5 it's about $6.50. And just a sneaky 60 plus which is just over $15 from memory. They are ridiculous odds I just don't see how either team couldn't cover it comfortably. That's where my cash will be.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Pods out which nullifies Merrett not getting up, and if the Chapman rumour is true (which I highly doubt) then I think we're a good shot at winning this one.

serious? Have you seen your outs? You will get absolutely pumped. I would be shocked if you got within 6 goals. That's not coming from a cats supporter that's from a punter. I honestly think you would be the only one on here that thinks you have any hope at all. Lions have been horrible for three weeks, they lose Brennan and two others that escape me right now but I think it will get messy.

 

[Notorious_29]

Yeah I'm pretty keen on the Geelong line, I think they will do it easily.

 

[Papa Juggs]

Time for revenge for the Lions getting a cheap victory post Saints destruction.

They had to slam Bartel into the post too the dirty scum.

The Lions lost to the Dees copped injuries and got worse. I think it could be an absolute pumping of Brissy.

Surely $3.15 odds for the Cats 40+ is some kind of steal?

 

[McCrann]

someone work out the math for me if you understand the question

if you have 8 matches, with 4 selections for each match, picking 1 selection each from each match for 8 selections, how many total combinations would there be ?

If you want to cover every base (Are you talking Under/Over 39.5pts here?)

That would be 1st match (4) x 2nd match (4) x 3rd match (4) etc.

Means 4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4 = 65,536 combos.

Good luck covering all of those! If you think you can narrow it down to 2 per match it makes it perhaps possible - if you can be bothered.

2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 = 256 combos.

But I'll give you a tip - you are unlikely to guess 8/8 margins correct Under/Over 39.5 even if you give yourself 2 options. You might get 6, or even 7, but something will always stuff you up.

I test myself on this last week - my best 2 options for each game were

WB (1-39)/ Melb (1-39) - CORRECT
Ess (1-39)/ Port (1-39) - CORRECT
WCE (1-39)/ Haw (1-39) - CORRECT
Coll (40+)/ Coll (1-39) - CORRECT
Bris (40+)/ Bris (1-39) - WRONG
Gee (1-39)/ Syd (1-39) - WRONG (Looks stupid now, but I thought the Swans could perhaps cause a boilover if Geelong had an off day like they did against the Blues)
Ade (40+)/ Ade (1-39) - CORRECT
St.K (1-39)/ Carl (1-39) - WRONG

So, I got 5/8. Average week. Its interesting to do this and keep track of this, but I rarely take these type of margin bets myself - except perhaps anyone v Richmond (40+).

 

[happy_punter]

someone should put together a margin multi thread

 

[desTROY]

someone should put together a margin multi thread

Give up mate

 

[JSFish]

Multi with:

Cats over 39.5 (should win easily)
Dees line (-18.5)
Sydney (everyone being so sure about the Dogs is frightening me a bit but they really aren't playing very well currently, and getting annihilated by Geelong in Geelong doesn't mean much)
Saints (don't want to touch the margin but Saints should win)
@ 17.95

 

[happy_punter]

Give up mate

no, im just posting as much as i can till my rank gets off apprentice then i will start thread myself, and i bet i see you giving it a try

 

[The Big Woofer]

Geelong -18.5 best bet of the week, will win by 7-8 goals.

Melbourne -18.5 will cover

came out strong in support of Collingwood earlier in the week & shot down a few boys suggesting freo (i take it back), well I am saying i reckon Fremantle are a massive show & should be slight favourites......I think Collingwood is taking a too top-heavy side to Subi & freo will be too fast, but there's not a huge amount in it, should be a great game.

 

[lions_den]

serious? Have you seen your outs? You will get absolutely pumped. I would be shocked if you got within 6 goals. That's not coming from a cats supporter that's from a punter. I honestly think you would be the only one on here that thinks you have any hope at all. Lions have been horrible for three weeks, they lose Brennan and two others that escape me right now but I think it will get messy.

I'm usually spot on at picking our games, people thought I was crazy for saying Freo by 40+ last week @ $13, and really they should have won by that sort of margin if they kicked straight. I do think the Cats will win by about 3 goals, but I can see us getting up if we're switched on, and with a full house I can see this being a possibility.

 

[mondayexpert]

Considering this multi: magpies +47.5, eagles +69.5, blues +51.5 @$1.27
Thoughts people??

 

[happy_punter]

Considering this multi: magpies +47.5, eagles +69.5, blues +51.5 @$1.27
Thoughts people??

should be fine, though the unbeleivable does happen, i had sydney +62.5 against the cats last week, looked good for 3 quarters then bang....should add a hawthorn option to that and boost the odds a bit more

 

[mondayexpert]

should be fine, though the unbeleivable does happen, i had sydney +62.5 against the cats last week, looked good for 3 quarters then bang....should add a hawthorn option to that and boost the odds a bit more

Good idea - adding hawks to win outright, takes odds up to $1.48

 

[asanque]

Good idea - adding hawks to win outright, takes odds up to $1.48

Looks pretty good to me

 

[pacemaker]

Decided to go with Fremantle +24.5, Western Bulldogs +19.5, Melbourne +12.5, $30 on @ $2. Hope it pays off as I just need to get my confidence up and get that winning feeling back