AFL round 9

[lions_den]

Liking Collingwood with the start, Sydney, Adelaide, Carlton at the line, and West Coast.

 

[Pelkanet]

Sydney good odds at $1.80 and Carlton wil win easily at $1.37. Dogs too short - Kangas aren't a bad side will probably tip them on the line.

 

[tarky]

I like the Pies, Swans and Crows. Dogs, Bombers and Blues are too short.

Dees v Port is a toss of the coin.

I don't mind the Eagles to beat the Saints in perth, but would've liked to seen them around the $2.30 mark at least

 

[Lensen]

What have Freo done to deserve to be outsiders against a Swans side that's lost a couple in a row with big injury concerns?

Lost to the Pies who are smashing everyone?

 

[mattys123]

Early multi, all straight out wins;

Pies @ 2.15
Dogs @ 1.25
Freo @ 2.08
Dons @ 1.25
Carlton @ 1.40 (how they aren't 1.20 is beyond me)
Eagles @ 2.00

@ 19.57 per unit.

Dogs, Essendon and Carlton are certainties, while Freo should just dominate the ruck contests. StKilda won't know what to do on big old Subi Oval, and the pies are in a real 50/50 game.

 

[The Big Woofer]

What have Freo done to deserve to be outsiders against a Swans side that's lost a couple in a row with big injury concerns?

Lost to the Pies who are smashing everyone?

its a fair call considering syd will be short in the ruck dept & stretched in defence without Bolton.

Freo weren't bad vs Coll & the early injury to McPharlin hurt them.

I think the price is due mostly to the venue (SCG).

 

[rossi]

I would have thought Freo 1.75 Sydney 2.08 were the right odds. Sydney haven't really proven much lately and will still be missing Bolton and Freo showed that they can win away at the GABBA less than 2 weeks ago. Sandilands should dominate the hitouts at the SCG. Will definately be getting on the freo train this week.

 

[smiddaz123]

Will be very interested in the overs/unders for Friday night.

Should be going another game going over 200.

 

[lions_den]

So much value this week. Been talked into Freo as well.

Freo/Ade/Carl/WC @12.11

Will add more bets when the lines are published.

 

[SmothOperRaider]

I like the Pies, Swans and Crows. Dogs, Bombers and Blues are too short.

Dees v Port is a toss of the coin.

I don't mind the Eagles to beat the Saints in perth, but would've liked to seen them around the $2.30 mark at least

Surely you can't bet against the Cats in this type of game mate?

I'm leaving that game dead alone.

Like the Dockers here, I honestly thought the odds would come out opposite than they are for that game.

 

[rossi]

I can't see why everyone is all over Adelaide this week. They could win by 10 goals or lose by 10 goals very easily. They have played 2 good quarters of footy this year. I will only have a look at this match if Craig swings the axe with selections this week. If he does I'll probably have a small go at the Crows.

 

[Lensen]

Geelong/Collingwood's the form side of the last 3 weeks vs the form side of the last 5 weeks, if that makes any sense. Too hard to get a read on them as a head to head option. Might have a very small go on the Pies over 24.5 purely as an interest bet, but I'm talking 1/4 unit here.

North have been pretty poor the last two weeks but got the job done last week, just. The Dogs seemed to have clicked but I'd be wanting more than one week's form surge before backing them at $1.29. Might go small on the line for NM but will see what it is first.

Swans have fallen in a hole no thanks to injuries (and I misread the importance of them last week). But looking at Freo's formline a bit more in depth over the last five weeks and it's not super flash either. Maybe worth half a unit at most but the SCG worries.

Essendon's a no brainer but too short at $1.27. Will leave alone.

I think Port will beat Melbourne but not so sure at $1.67. Will probably leave alone.

The Crows are getting better but are still no good. Would be willing to back them at $3 but not at $2.10. Leaving game at the moment but may get tempted later on.

Carlton I like a hell of a lot at $1.40 and will almost certainly jump on.

West Coast / St Kilda scares the hell out of me just thinking about investing some money on it. Can literally see it go either way but want to get another week to read on just how bad the Saints are. The reasonably poor recent record at Subi is tempting me to take the $2+ on WC though.

 

[mattys123]

Bet of the week at this early stage;

CARLTON - 19.5

----------------------------------------------------------

On form, a top 4 side versus a bottom 4 side, I expected the line to be around 30, and the Blues to be around 1.20. I know Hawthorn has a good recent record against Carlton, but apart from the last 2 years, you have to ignore Carlton's "recent" form.

Blues should win easily.

 

[tarky]

Surely you can't bet against the Cats in this type of game mate?

I'm leaving that game dead alone.

yeah i think i will leave it alone now

 

[RequiemBlade]

Only game considering atm is Carlton at $1.40. Will have to wait for lines to come out before considering others. Will definitely be staying away from Bombers/Tigers and Saints/Eagles. Tigers played a lot better against Hawthorn and always rise up for games against us, can't pick a clear winner out of Saints and Eagles.

 

[pacemaker]

Not happy with the WCE line at all. Would have thought it would have been at least +12.5

 

[cynical]

Saints should beat the eagles easily, the eagles dont have the runners to exploit them like the blues and bombers have.

 

[Effes]

Everything points to a blues win however Roughead often has his birthday against Carlton and although Hawthorn weren't impressive they all now have a week under their belts to gain touch/fitness. Carlton are still a young team prone to not turning up with the required intensity so for me it's a no bet game.

 

[Daytripper]

Not happy with the WCE line at all. Would have thought it would have been at least +12.5

The lines for St Kilda games are always much skinnier than other games as their matches are invariably low scoring.

 

[lions_den]

To those thinking of backing Collingwood I'll give you a bit more confidence. The Gabba is extremely firm this year and has caused many injuries to our players. Apparently many Geelong players pulled up sore the other night as well, and they're on a 6 day turn around. Great odds for the 'Woods.

 

[Richo- true champion]

Bookies are still cautious with the Hawks as they know what they are capable of..except the hawks have been no good for a while now...

Carlton @$1.40 is a LOCK

Also interesting comments regarding the playing surface at the GABBA

 

[mike262]

Will be very interested in the overs/unders for Friday night.

Should be going another game going over 200.

yep, i might ignore the result and go with the over if it looks good this week

 

[flea29]

Collingwood 1-39 1-39 Fixed Win 2.65
Western Bulldogs Fixed Win 1.26
Melbourne Fixed Win 2.28
St Kilda Fixed Win 1.80
25.00 @ 13.7


317.58

 

[Coach Bombay]

One of Sportsbets specials this week is which group will kick the most goals.
"Mollydockers" - Didak/Cloke/Podsiadly @ 1.95
"Regular Righties" - Mooney/Johnson/Dawes @ 1.85

I like the Regular Righties.

 

[The Big Woofer]

To those thinking of backing Collingwood I'll give you a bit more confidence. The Gabba is extremely firm this year and has caused many injuries to our players. Apparently many Geelong players pulled up sore the other night as well, and they're on a 6 day turn around. Great odds for the 'Woods.

I agree with you 100%, that ground has a lot of people jarring up.