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AFL Round 9

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tants said:
That's a couple of times this has been trotted out and it is far from the truth.

It's something that w***ers say to make themselves feel important, usually reserved for the Bay and has nothing to do with punting. Winning the game is important to Freo but that's because winning every game is important to every team (except maybe tanking teams). If Freo get up in the derby it will have more to do with the coaching and changes from last week, coupled with being at home than the fact it is against WCE.

Of course, it might suit you to trot out the line.
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I do see your point but I think there are occasions where teams do get 'up' to play a particular team. I know it sounds strange to suggest that teams are not always trying 100% but there are a couple of obvious situations that support this.

Teams playing GC/GWS have stated that they took it a bit easy, resting players, just wanted him to get through the game etc.

I think the more relevant one is Geelong vs Hawthorn. After the 2008 GF they made a pact which I am sure everyone knows about, and watching those games I think you do see a rise in intensity.

I don't think it is worth a lot but I think it must be factored in when punting on games such as WC/Freo Geel/Haw Ess/Carl etc
 
KP78 said:
I do see your point but I think there are occasions where teams do get 'up' to play a particular team. I know it sounds strange to suggest that teams are not always trying 100% but there are a couple of obvious situations that support this.

Teams playing GC/GWS have stated that they took it a bit easy, resting players, just wanted him to get through the game etc.

I think the more relevant one is Geelong vs Hawthorn. After the 2008 GF they made a pact which I am sure everyone knows about, and watching those games I think you do see a rise in intensity.

I don't think it is worth a lot but I think it must be factored in when punting on games such as WC/Freo Geel/Haw Ess/Carl etc
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Getting up for it is very different to "it's their grand final". Do you view Hawthorn as your grand final? I didn't think so.

As I said, it's Bay talk not punting talk.

WCE should win because they are a better side across most lines. The area Freo usually has an advantage is nullified and Freo's biggest weakness (a fit midfield) will be exploited by a team that will get first use most of the day.
I'm sure Freo will be playing to win, I'm sure there will be a lot of build up for some fans, but I'm also certain that for the players and coaches at Freo, it's just another game that they can't afford to play like they did last week.

Freo's grand final is the same as everyone elses.
 
tants said:
Getting up for it is very different to "it's their grand final". Do you view Hawthorn as your grand final? I didn't think so.

As I said, it's Bay talk not punting talk.

WCE should win because they are a better side across most lines. The area Freo usually has an advantage is nullified and Freo's biggest weakness (a fit midfield) will be exploited by a team that will get first use most of the day.
I'm sure Freo will be playing to win, I'm sure there will be a lot of build up for some fans, but I'm also certain that for the players and coaches at Freo, it's just another game that they can't afford to play like they did last week.

Freo's grand final is the same as everyone elses.
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Oh, you were just upset about the specific 'it's their grand final' comment. I think we all knew he just meant Freo always try and lift for this game.

Anyway, back on topic and your analysis seems pretty reasonable although with Freo having won 3 of the last 5 (albeit having lost the last 2) they must be given some chance. They showed good fight against Carlton at the same venue, perform a lot better at home, midfield fitness improving, game time for Sandi is vital and he got that last week.

I had them marked at 33% so unfortunately no value with the books, they have it priced the same.
 
Normally punt on horses but prepared to give the AFL a go.

Please explain how the line works:

Adelaide line -13.5 @ $1.91

does that mean Adelaide have to win by 14 points + for that bet to get up.
 

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I don't expect Collingwood to win, but the money is coming for Adelaide and the Pies are getting out to a ridiculous price.
 
X_box_X said:
I don't expect Collingwood to win, but the money is coming for Adelaide and the Pies are getting out to a ridiculous price.
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it's tempting isn't it?

it hasn't happened for a while but we've gone over to footy park as big outsiders plenty in the last decade and somehow found a way to win. I don't bet on the Pies as a rule but if they got out to $3 gee it would be tempting
 
Lenny29 said:
it's tempting isn't it?

it hasn't happened for a while but we've gone over to footy park as big outsiders plenty in the last decade and somehow found a way to win. I don't bet on the Pies as a rule but if they got out to $3 gee it would be tempting
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How good did you think the Pies looked last week against the Cats Lenny?
 
KP78 said:
How good did you think the Pies looked last week against the Cats Lenny?
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not super, not as good as the crows v the blues anyway

form says crows easily, injuries say crows easily, there's just that nagging footy park thing in my head. i mean, we've won 7 in a row there, not always as favourite, it's been a happy hunting ground
 
Lenny29 said:
not super, not as good as the crows v the blues anyway

form says crows easily, injuries say crows easily, there's just that nagging footy park thing in my head. i mean, we've won 7 in a row there, not always as favourite, it's been a happy hunting ground
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Fair stat!

I thought Collingwood looked good for 3 quarters, but I thought Reid was huge in holding your defence together.

I can see why 3 bucks is so tempting for you.
 

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Im liking Richmond to beat the hawks. Going to be wet so going to be won in the clearances and i think Richmonds midfielders can get forward and kick goals. Riewoldt is out of form anyway, buddy will get Rance and in the wet should be able to shut him down. Richmond dont really have a matchup for Rioli.

I just like the 3.60 odds

Also think the dogs are good odds at 5.00. They have won 5 of their last 5 with their only loss in the pass 5 weeks to collingwood. Who now looking back are n great form and the dogs pushed them all the way. Geelong dont have form and i feel Picken is a good matchup generally for Selwood. Hargrave probably has to play though, cooney back helps.

I think the dogs midfield can win the clearances with Libba, Griffen and Boyd all in outstanding form and Minson is a good H2H with big O. The fear is they wont be able to kick a score against Geelong and Scarlett back.

Surely GC can beat port aswell an paying good odds at 2.65 probably would like a bit more. They love metricon stadium pushing the essendon and freo all the way at that ground this year. R1 they wernt in touch and an in form adelaide at peak dismantled them.

I also think Stkilda are finally starting to get back to better footy again. Likely ins will be Fisher and Gwilt. Big ins. Sydney have been going H2H in the midfield which is a massive win for the saints if that is to be the case as Hayes, NDS, Montagna and Goddard could run a muck on ROK,Hanneberry, Jack and JPK. Saints have only lost one game at ES this year and that was to old coach Ross Lyon.

I also think Brisbane are every chance to beat the roos. Brown typically plays well against North, Merrett at full forward will be a worry for a small/inexperienced backline and if the lions can cause enough turnovers in the middle they will have plenty of ball inside that forward 50.

They are all 5 underdogs but i think are every chance and good odds. I will be beating on all 5 individually. Maybe into Carlton to win, although blues dont fill me with confidence either. No murphy is a huge loss.
 
DTpunter said:
Sydney have been going H2H in the midfield which is a massive win for the saints if that is to be the case as Hayes, NDS, Montagna and Goddard could run a muck on ROK,Hanneberry, Jack and JPK.
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Can you explain this bit?

Sydney's midfield is very strong. I'm biased of course, but would say there is no worries about them getting dominated by the saints. They're harder at the ball, and should win contested possessions on the night.

Why do you think that part of the contest will be a massive win to the saints?
 
Rooster Cogburn said:
Can you explain this bit?

Sydney's midfield is very strong. I'm biased of course, but would say there is no worries about them getting dominated by the saints. They're harder at the ball, and should win contested possessions on the night.

Why do you think that part of the contest will be a massive win to the saints?
Click to expand...

If you dont put time into those 4 players they can have a massive impact at ES. C.Jones likely go to JPK. I wouldnt say your that much harder when they have Hayes, Jones, Goddard and even NDS these days.

Im really liking Adelaide for a cert win now. Collingwood have hardly beaten anyone of any notice? geelong hardly proven this year

Also thinking Freo are good odds, hard game to read with how strategys will effect eachother.
 
Saints will win, playing some great footy atm, although weren't too flash last week they should beat Swannies at home.

Dominated a shocking Carlton but played solid 4 quarters and the Swans although started strong, have not shown too much since. Losing Goodes is there main drive and is Sydney's min man. My tigers dominated them at the G (yes they are better at the dome) and under the closed roof it should be tight but Saints forwards (small main dominance) should have them run over the top.

Saints hitting form, Swannies losing it. Saints at home by 15.
very confident in them.
 

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Any other result <40 multi for;
- WB vs Geel
- GC vs Port
- Stk vs Syd
- Ade vs Coll

2.5u @ 4.04

Fairly confident in gc/port & stk/syd margins.
70% chance of 1-5mm rain for ade/coll (weatherzone).
Not sure if i'm underestimating gee too much, but havn't really put away any teams yet.


Geel <40
GC <40
Stk/Syd either <40
Ade <40

1u @ 22.37
 
Yep, did you watch Saints v Blues?

They have played shithouse all year the Saints and I do not rate them but that game shows how good they can be and they are on the up. Don't read that as the Saints will dominate from now on cos I think the Tiges can beat them next week, but being at home, at the dome and after a pretty big win last time they were there, its enough for me to back them.

You been watching Sydney? They beat Adel at home just, got dominated by us then beat a soft Melbourne at home. Nothing too get excited about.

Saints will win. <39 @ 2.60. I'll take that.
 
Grimmjow said:
Any other result <40 multi for;
- WB vs Geel
- GC vs Port
- Stk vs Syd
- Ade vs Coll

2.5u @ 4.04

Fairly confident in gc/port & stk/syd margins.
70% chance of 1-5mm rain for ade/coll (weatherzone).
Not sure if i'm underestimating gee too much, but havn't really put away any teams yet.


Geel <40
GC <40
Stk/Syd either <40
Ade <40

1u @ 22.37
Click to expand...

Hey mate, the later bet is exactly what I would do too and am very confident on it. Saints being the winner.

Where are these 'any team under (margin) to win' bets available. Looks solid and wondered where they are.
 
^ Syd lost to Ade and ended alot of multis

EDIT: I believe only Sportingbet has the 'either <40' option

FYI
WB vs GEE 1.55
GC vs PORT 1.38
STK vs SYD 1.35
ADE vs COL 1.40
 
Grimmjow said:
Any other result <40 multi for;
- WB vs Geel
- GC vs Port
- Stk vs Syd
- Ade vs Coll

2.5u @ 4.04

Fairly confident in gc/port & stk/syd margins.
70% chance of 1-5mm rain for ade/coll (weatherzone).
Not sure if i'm underestimating gee too much, but havn't really put away any teams yet.


Geel <40
GC <40
Stk/Syd either <40
Ade <40

1u @ 22.37
Click to expand...

I like your first bet mate but I might take the Cats Dogs game out and play the 3 together for less odds.

Thanks for sharing. :thumbsu:
 
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