AFL Round 9

[free at last]

I put this out there as a talking point, i'm not trying to talk myself into anything & i certainly dont base what i am doing on the varied opinions on here, my thinking is mainly that Haw like to play a high poss style of precise football not really suited to a wet windy day & i see the trouble of the Rich backline partly reduced if its a tough day for big forwards.
weatherzone.com.au has 20-40mm of rain but yeah its true 5 days out can be tricky.

When there's money involved it becomes a very important factor(rain, how much or how little).I'm not sure how much rain will fall during Saturday, but looking at the maps it's looking very similar to the weather the anzca day game encountered.TBH it looks bleaker than the pies v bombers game,windguru is forecasting anywhere from 10-15mm for the daylight hours.

I will be watching the weather radar & total match points for the hawks v
tigers game.

 

[KP78]

Question for the regulars and mods in particular:

Any thoughts on having a thread per round where people simply post their one best bet (value) of the round? I don't think one extra thread per round would clog up the forum and it might provide good insight for people to be able to discuss why they like one game/bet over others.

I know personally my best bet of the round is often not getting up, where a lot of my other bets are and I want to work on rectifying this problem.

 

[anabac]

Question for the regulars and mods in particular:

Any thoughts on having a thread per round where people simply post their one best bet (value) of the round? I don't think one extra thread per round would clog up the forum and it might provide good insight for people to be able to discuss why they like one game/bet over others.

I know personally my best bet of the round is often not getting up, where a lot of my other bets are and I want to work on rectifying this problem.

Yeah don't mind this. Keep the discussion in this thread but post your best bet or bets in a dedicated thread. Would keep most blokes honest as you could easily look back at what you have actually backed rather than a lean this way or that way.

 

[free at last]

Question for the regulars and mods in particular:

Any thoughts on having a thread per round where people simply post their one best bet (value) of the round? I don't think one extra thread per round would clog up the forum and it might provide good insight for people to be able to discuss why they like one game/bet over others.

I know personally my best bet of the round is often not getting up, where a lot of my other bets are and I want to work on rectifying this problem.

You've got my vote KP78.At least your getting some bets in,I can't take a trick at the moment.Putting too many legs into multis.

 

[Lensen]

Most Goals is done, and moving to a conservative Kelly system for my H2Hs.

2.5 units Western Bulldogs @ $5.80 (Betfair) - way way overs for mine. Geelong are still being marked on 2011 form - they should be favourites here but nowhere near to this level. They aren't anywhere near that good whilst the Dogs have been pretty good in the last month. Geelong also haven't been as dominant at Etihad so very happy to take the longer odds.

0.8 units Port Adelaide @ $1.504 (Betfair) - A bit wary of Port this short but Gold Coast are no good at all and the trip from Darwin will kill them

0.5 units Sydney @ $1.90 (TAB) - they are better than the Saints, period, and much less concerned about them at Etihad than I am at the MCG

1.2 units Brisbane @ $4.22 (Pinny) - a value bet, North are every chance to win by 80 here as well but they are in horrid form whilst the Lions will get confidence in a win albeit against some poor opposition. Overs

0.3 units Fremantle @ $3.25 (Tatts) - Probably should be a little closer IMO with them lifting for derbies. I'm pretty sure they'll be keen to atone for a terrible effort last week

 

[The Big Woofer]

Question for the regulars and mods in particular:

Any thoughts on having a thread per round where people simply post their one best bet (value) of the round? I don't think one extra thread per round would clog up the forum and it might provide good insight for people to be able to discuss why they like one game/bet over others.

I know personally my best bet of the round is often not getting up, where a lot of my other bets are and I want to work on rectifying this problem.

Agree, have a thread NOT designed for people to be announcing to the world what 5 leg multis they are taking or how clever they were the week before but forgot to post or just general bullshit & we have a thread based on exchange of information & angles on specific games & bet types.....unfortunately some useful information & exchange of ideas gets lost amongst so much crap.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I don't understand why the trip from Darwin will kill GC but not effect the dogs who have one day less to recover

 

[Lensen]

I don't understand why the trip from Darwin will kill GC but not effect the dogs who have one day less to recover

a combination of younger legs struggling more and that I forgot to mention it in my dogs summary

but yes, it was taken into account in my price summary I still think the Dogs are way overs

 

[KardiniaPark]

I think you have it arse about. The young legs of GC will handle it much better than the old dogs, you don't know what it's like to be old. It sucks!. I'd be surprised if they got within 8 goals of the cats. I really don't see $5+ as any kind of value at all. ( btw not a Geelong fan, jumped off them ...GO GWS)

 

[quazza6]

Someone told me today that no team has won a game the week after playing in Darwin. Does anyone on here keep stats to conform or deny this? Cheers

 

[Thedeftouch]

2.5 units Western Bulldogs @ $5.80 (Betfair) - way way overs for mine. Geelong are still being marked on 2011 form - they should be favourites here but nowhere near to this level. They aren't anywhere near that good whilst the Dogs have been pretty good in the last month. Geelong also haven't been as dominant at Etihad so very happy to take the longer odds.

0.8 units Port Adelaide @ $1.504 (Betfair) - A bit wary of Port this short but Gold Coast are no good at all and the trip from Darwin will kill them

0.5 units Sydney @ $1.90 (TAB) - they are better than the Saints, period, and much less concerned about them at Etihad than I am at the MCG

1.2 units Brisbane @ $4.22 (Pinny) - a value bet, North are every chance to win by 80 here as well but they are in horrid form whilst the Lions will get confidence in a win albeit against some poor opposition. Overs

0.3 units Fremantle @ $3.25 (Tatts) - Probably should be a little closer IMO with them lifting for derbies. I'm pretty sure they'll be keen to atone for a terrible effort last week

I like the teams, except Port Adelaide (Port at 1.5 on the road?), but probably prefer them at the spread. I see the Bulldogs and Freo recording honourable losses.

 

[Lensen]

I think you have it arse about. The young legs of GC will handle it much better than the old dogs, you don't know what it's like to be old. It sucks!. I'd be surprised if they got within 8 goals of the cats. I really don't see $5+ as any kind of value at all. ( btw not a Geelong fan, jumped off them ...GO GWS)

Dont worry, I may be 27 but my body is late 30s. I know about being old, but the dogs aren't super old just more hardened

 

[KardiniaPark]

Someone told me today that no team has won a game the week after playing in Darwin. Does anyone on here keep stats to conform or deny this? Cheers

Well no it's not true, it happened twice in 2010.

 

[yamahamoto]

2010 bulldogs played port in round 16. In round 17 both teams won. Bulldogs beat freo and port beat Adelaide the week after

 

[Donkson]

Someone told me today that no team has won a game the week after playing in Darwin. Does anyone on here keep stats to conform or deny this? Cheers

why do you need someone else to find this for you?

it's also irrelevant anyway.

 

[Sunny_]

Poster above is right, both teams won in 2010 following the Darwin trip. It was interesting hearing Bob Murphy's answers to the question on it in 360, since he was asked about the 6 day turn around from Darwin. He said that they usually do a lighter week on the track to help them recover and that it usually wasn't much of a problem. GCFC tweeted just recently they were doing the same.

Remember, GC aren't flying back to Melbourne either. They're only going back to the Coast. Shorter trip from Darwin. Though don't know the exact time frames.

This is the last winnable game that the Suns have for a while. Unless North don't turn things around, I guess. I expect them to throw the kitchen sink at it and try to get that first win at Metricon.

 

[Piss Poor]

The two hardest games for mine are Saints vs Sydney and Kangas vs Brisbane

Ive gone with
Geelong over 15.5
Hawthorn under 39
Port under 39
Adelaide win
Carlton win
Essendon win
Westcoast under 39
Saints under 39
Brisbane under 39
Return $800 for $5

Also gone same bet with Kangas

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Question for the regulars and mods in particular:

Any thoughts on having a thread per round where people simply post their one best bet (value) of the round? I don't think one extra thread per round would clog up the forum and it might provide good insight for people to be able to discuss why they like one game/bet over others.

I know personally my best bet of the round is often not getting up, where a lot of my other bets are and I want to work on rectifying this problem.

top idea, make it happen.

 

[jaza2003]

Saints Under 39.5 ($2.75- Centrebet)- Lenny's 250th game. Etihad stadium and they have no Goodes or Mumford who both tore us apart in both their wins last year.

Western Bulldogs +50.5 ($1.33 - Centrebet - pick your own line) At Etihad and bulldogs not traveling that bad. Can't see geelong flogging them.

Them 2 in a multi @ 3.65.

 

[Del125763]

Western Bulldogs V Geelong

Predict a high scoring game at the Dome on Friday night. The last 5 games played between these two sides at the Dome have racked up: 221, 206, 230, 201, 206. I think the line released will be around the 195.5 mark, this is going to be a shoot out.Id go Overs with confidence and will be interested to see what the in-line total match points are in-play at bookies. Dogs also hold a 6-5 advantage against Cats at the Dome (and like the Saints and Bombers) play the ground alot more better, like a small stake on Dogs at 5.90 (anything around 5.00+ is good bet IMO)

St.Kilda V Sydney

Suprisingly the last 6 games played between these two sides have produced low scoring games at the Dome. Game totals have been: 139, 145, 100, 168, 159, 112. I think a major reason for the low scoring games was the way Ross Lyon and Paul Roos coached those sides in those years. My predicition is line will be around 175.5 points (id still back overs in this one) , new coaches for both sides this time around and the game styles have changed for both teams. Saints also underdogs at 2.06, but the only reason is because of the flight back from Perth. Saints have the best record of all AFL teams at the Dome and value lies with them but I wont be touching that, as I want the Swans to win.


North V Brisbane
Odds are about right for this game. Brisbane really have struggled at the Dome with their scoring, only scored: 62, 77, 63, 45, 95, 56, 89. They are going to have to address their forward problems if they are going to trouble the Roos. I think the line will be around 182.5 points. I wont play on those odds. Brisbane need to think of a way to score at least 100+ points to even challenge for a win.

 

[Del125763]

TAB released their Total Score Under/Over for this week:

Bulldogs V Geelong 190.5
Richmond V Hawthorn 170.5
Gold Coast V Port 165.5
St.Kilda V Sydney 170.5
Adelaide V Collingwood 165.5
GWS V Essendon 180.5
North V Brisbane 190.5
Carlton V Melbourne 180.5
WCE V Freo 185.5


im tipping overs in 3 of those games: Bulldogs V Cats, Saints V Swans and GC V Port

 

[Donkson]

lol 1.87 lines.

 

[KP78]

Thanks for the support on the idea people, I will get that thread happening now.

 

[eastcoastcrow]

Most Goals is done, and moving to a conservative Kelly system for my H2Hs.

2.5 units Western Bulldogs @ $5.80 (Betfair) - way way overs for mine. Geelong are still being marked on 2011 form - they should be favourites here but nowhere near to this level. They aren't anywhere near that good whilst the Dogs have been pretty good in the last month. Geelong also haven't been as dominant at Etihad so very happy to take the longer odds.

0.8 units Port Adelaide @ $1.504 (Betfair) - A bit wary of Port this short but Gold Coast are no good at all and the trip from Darwin will kill them

0.5 units Sydney @ $1.90 (TAB) - they are better than the Saints, period, and much less concerned about them at Etihad than I am at the MCG

1.2 units Brisbane @ $4.22 (Pinny) - a value bet, North are every chance to win by 80 here as well but they are in horrid form whilst the Lions will get confidence in a win albeit against some poor opposition. Overs

0.3 units Fremantle @ $3.25 (Tatts) - Probably should be a little closer IMO with them lifting for derbies. I'm pretty sure they'll be keen to atone for a terrible effort last week

Nice selections there.

In regards to Freo, if my selections pan out, then I will have a dabble on them. This is Freo and this weekend is there Grand Final.

Although not too sure about the Bullies, esp with Darwin trip and short turnaround between games.

Bullies at the line or +39.5 may be the way to go???

 

[Nothing]

Nice selections there.

In regards to Freo, if my selections pan out, then I will have a dabble on them. This is Freo and this weekend is there Grand Final.

Although not too sure about the Bullies, esp with Darwin trip and short turnaround between games.

Bullies at the line or +39.5 may be the way to go???

That's a couple of times this has been trotted out and it is far from the truth.

It's something that w***ers say to make themselves feel important, usually reserved for the Bay and has nothing to do with punting. Winning the game is important to Freo but that's because winning every game is important to every team (except maybe tanking teams). If Freo get up in the derby it will have more to do with the coaching and changes from last week, coupled with being at home than the fact it is against WCE.

Of course, it might suit you to trot out the line.