AFLW 2021

[NonPhixion]

The most lucrative sport in the world makes an imminent return this week. Was hoping to see more futures markets up.. nevertheless have taken a bit on North for premiers.

Early action:
Like Collingwood +9.5 $1.89
Think they will show good improvement this year, beat North in a practice match and they impressed me at training. Think the line is just too high. Hopefuly see some GS markets later in the week.

 

[NYRB]

Fremantle AFLW were pretty impressive last season before covid19 had its place to play. Can't have any odds on Freo to win at short odds of $4 though. ($5 on the Betfair Exchange)



Odds to Make the Finals in 2021: (6 teams)
Kangaroos $1.10
Freo $1.12
Carlton $1.25
Melbourne $1.30
Brisbane $1.50
Adelaide $1.80
Collingwood $1.80
GWS $2
Geelong $3
St.K $6
Gold Coast, Bulldogs $7
Richmond, WCE $11




Might have to do a look at the underdogs and outsiders.

 

[NonPhixion]

Fremantle AFLW were pretty impressive last season before covid19 had its place to play. Can't have any odds on Freo to win at short odds of $4 though. ($5 on the Betfair Exchange)



Odds to Make the Finals in 2021: (6 teams)
Kangaroos $1.10
Freo $1.12
Carlton $1.25
Melbourne $1.30
Brisbane $1.50
Adelaide $1.80
Collingwood $1.80
GWS $2
Geelong $3
St.K $6
Gold Coast, Bulldogs $7
Richmond, WCE $11




Might have to do a look at the underdogs and outsiders.

I’d be careful on some of the outsiders. I think the gap between the bottom 4 teams and the best 4-6 teams will be huge.

I’ve also taken a cheeky 3 leg multi all games the margin U24.5
Carlton/Collingwood
Saints/Dogs
GC/Melb
$2.85

chosen what I think will be the 3 closest games.

SB opened the Collingwood 40+ Market at $476... can’t see it happening but that was a tad crazy. Now $31

 

[burge13]

I’ve also taken a cheeky 3 leg multi all games the margin U24.5
Carlton/Collingwood
Saints/Dogs
GC/Melb
$2.85

chosen what I think will be the 3 closest games.

Teams aren't really capable of kicking scores for the most part. I don't watch much but the bet makes sense given the incredibly low scoring

 

[NonPhixion]

Teams aren't really capable of kicking scores for the most part. I don't watch much but the bet makes sense given the incredibly low scoring

Ye pretty much the rationale. I think the SportsBet model is just a tad off on this specific market.

 

[burge13]

Ye pretty much the rationale. I think the SportsBet model is just a tad off on this specific market.

I've tailed so you can now expect a 100 point thrashing amongst those 3 games!

 

[benji21]

Think Freo lead the way with aggressive play last year, think the other teams will follow and as the girls that have actually grown up playing the sport come through I find the scoring is increasing, wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of a breakout on scoring this year. Will be keen to hit some totals when/if they come up. Nothing massive but expecting 5 - 10ish points increase.

Adelaide the smokey this year, Randall and Philips back is massive.

 

[Robo87]

I agree with the close games mentioned above.

Also my first reaction is Crows with Randall and Philips back vs an eagles who finished with a percentage of just 32 last year - seems like value imo.
1u on Crows -12.5 @1.91 b365 (line elsewhere is -14.5)

 

[langdon19]

Will be keen to hit some totals when/if they come up. Nothing massive but expecting 5 - 10ish points increase.

Couple on betfair you can hit please

 

[benji21]

Couple on betfair you can hit please

Not much anywhere at the moment, unfortunately don't have betfair. Gotta organise one next time I'm in Aus (could be years haha)

 

[NonPhixion]

3U Newman AGS $2.55
1U Stevens AGS $3.60
1U Hosking $3.35
1U Sheridan $4.15
All 365

 

[NYRB]

The points line for Carlton W and Collingwood W is 60.5 pts for the 1st game of the season.

 

[mookieb]

Alright well i'm joining the fun this year although tbh I know very little about AFLW.

I'm on Freo -13.5. According to premiership odds they are 2nd fav and went undefeated last year. Playing at home. Looks like it will be scorching hot (36 degrees). On the flipside GWS have had a deplorable build up. They couldn't train for two weeks because of covid, then went to a hub in Albury and then to Ade. In their only preseason game they had 1 scoring shot up until three quarter time. I listened to a 4 minute interview of their coach where all he does is talk about how compromised their training was.

Also a little nibble on 40+ at $7.50.

 

[NonPhixion]

I’d be careful on some of the outsiders. I think the gap between the bottom 4 teams and the best 4-6 teams will be huge.

I’ve also taken a cheeky 3 leg multi all games the margin U24.5
Carlton/Collingwood
Saints/Dogs
GC/Melb
$2.85

chosen what I think will be the 3 closest games.

SB opened the Collingwood 40+ Market at $476... can’t see it happening but that was a tad crazy. Now $31

U24.5 margin market already taken down by SportsBet

 

[tangolikelama]

Riding my wave of luck

$250 @4.35

Carlton h2h
Harris ATG
Molloy ATG

 

[Lewis#3]

I’d be careful on some of the outsiders. I think the gap between the bottom 4 teams and the best 4-6 teams will be huge.

I’ve also taken a cheeky 3 leg multi all games the margin U24.5
Carlton/Collingwood
Saints/Dogs
GC/Melb
$2.85

chosen what I think will be the 3 closest games.

SB opened the Collingwood 40+ Market at $476... can’t see it happening but that was a tad crazy. Now $31

Geez $476 would be an alright ticket to hold now lol

 

[NonPhixion]

Geez $476 would be an alright ticket to hold now lol

If only

 

[mookieb]

I’d be careful on some of the outsiders. I think the gap between the bottom 4 teams and the best 4-6 teams will be huge.

I’ve also taken a cheeky 3 leg multi all games the margin U24.5
Carlton/Collingwood
Saints/Dogs
GC/Melb
$2.85

chosen what I think will be the 3 closest games.

SB opened the Collingwood 40+ Market at $476... can’t see it happening but that was a tad crazy. Now $31

Geez that Coll 40+ odds...

 

[Benjo_]

3U Newman AGS $2.55
1U Stevens AGS $3.60
1U Hosking $3.35
1U Sheridan $4.15
All 365

Great start boss

 

[JuniorWatch]

The points line for Carlton W and Collingwood W is 60.5 pts for the 1st game of the season.

You'd have to say they judged that one pretty well

 

[NYRB]

You'd have to say they judged that one pretty well

Yep pretty much on the mark.

 

[langdon19]

Could have had under 60 and over 59 at 365, the 1 point middle

 

[Robo87]

I agree with the close games mentioned above.

Also my first reaction is Crows with Randall and Philips back vs an eagles who finished with a percentage of just 32 last year - seems like value imo.
1u on Crows -12.5 @1.91 b365 (line elsewhere is -14.5)

Also i forgot Metcalf (main ruck) is back too and Marinoff has appealed her suspension tonight successfully! (the tribunal should never have offered her 3 weeks).

 

[squeaky1000]

Multi:
Crows h2h
Freo leader HT/FT
$2.03 bet365

 

[NYRB]

The points line for Saints W and Bulldogs W is 36.5 points . Gathering there must be a bit of rain around?