Mega Thread COVID-19 Carlton & the AFL - NO POLITICS/NO RELIGION/NO CONSPIRACIES ETC

[thylacine60]

The point of free daycare is so essential services workers have somewhere to send their kids and don’t have to pay. And those parents (like me) who want to keep their kids home don’t have to pay thousands of dollars just to keep our spot open.

I'm happy to have the little tikes again. Unlikely the soup burns and house fire will reoccur.

 

[JustaBattler]

USA 0.307% of population
Australia 0.58%
UK 0.94%
France 1.44%
Italy 1.11%

Given that the CFR will most likely settle at 1% or higher (some estimate 3-4%) I think its quite comparable. Sure Russia and Germany were much higher but there were other factors at play .

Are you are assuming that 100% of people get exposed to the virus and that a 1% morbidity rate applies across the board? These horrible numbers are possible - but at this stage it seems that all governments are taking the right steps to minimise exposure % via social distancing measures.

There is an unprecedented flurry of activity around the world not only in looking for a vaccine(s) but also investigating the re-purposing of existing medications as treatment - I take a lot of comfort out of the money being spent on such activities employing the best research minds supported by technologies that weren't available even a decade ago.

 

[Metalcrusher]

You find using % of the population illogical? You would rather use raw numbers- which of course are incomparable because of the differences in the 2 populations between the 1940's and now?

No I find it interesting you are comparing humans killing each other with bombs and weapons to a virus and its spread and mortality rate.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

The World Health Organization spokespeople and (admittedly) a plonker like Piers Morgan have been going around saying this is the biggest global threat since WW2.

And no, I am not ignoring all the atrocities and genocide that have been committed elsewhere in the world since WW2, it's just now that the levels of infections and deaths I have seen in Spain, Europe and now The USA and UK really frightens and saddens me about the loss of life.

And yes, I think China have been lying about the number of their fatalities as well, much as the Soviet Union did about the deceased victims of the Chernobyl Disaster.

Not saying this will come close to reaching WW2 levels, which lasted for 5 years btw, but be we cannot afford to be blase about it and hope it goes away in a few months.

I would also advise posters here to get their annual flu shots ASAP, planning to get mine next week (got a cold atm, so staying home till it clears up)

 

[therubbernub]

Are you are assuming that 100% of people get exposed to the virus and that a 1% morbidity rate applies across the board? These horrible numbers are possible - but at this stage it seems that all governments are taking the right steps to minimise exposure % via social distancing measures.

There is an unprecedented flurry of activity around the world not only in looking for a vaccine(s) but also investigating the re-purposing of existing medications as treatment - I take a lot of comfort out of the money being spent on such activities employing the best research minds supported by technologies that weren't available even a decade ago.

No , I am not assuming 100% but i think the experts are saying 60-80%. The 1% applies to those that get infected- so you could say 0.6%-0.8% overall - but then you could also say that the 1% is the lowest figure for the CFR that the epidemiologists are using it may be much higher.
I think the higher estimates for the CFR are assuming an Italy scenario where all hospitals are swamped and therefore the CFR surges upwards- nearly 10% like Italy at the moment. But they will all fall once testing of asymptomatics takes place of course.

 

[therubbernub]

No I find it interesting you are comparing humans killing each other with bombs and weapons to a virus and its spread and mortality rate.

I was responding to the OP who was comparing the effects on the world and its economy of the 2 . Its different in many ways eg WW2 stimulated the economy with all the manufacturing going on- but then there was a lot of physical destruction of infrastructure. But in terms of loss of life in western economies it has the potential to be similar. The age demographics of those that are lost will be completely different as well for obvious reasons

 

[therubbernub]

I'm happy to have the little tikes again. Unlikely the soup burns and house fire will reoccur.

Just make sure that you dont leave those big black keys to the dungeon lying around

 

[Skull Face]

Yes of course ... it’s the family connection which is dangerous ... we must disconnect this at all costs ... lmfao ...

It is simple.

Stay as far away from everyone as you possibly can, don't go out don't do anything.

Unless... You still have to go to work, we will chuck all your kids in care and school and forget the rules to save what's left of the economy.

Its the same as any workplace, safety matters unless it's going to cost us money.

 

[JustaBattler]

No , I am not assuming 100% but i think the experts are saying 60-80%. ....... But they will all fall once testing of asymptomatics takes place of course.

Anyway it is looked at there is no doubt that the virus presents an a-typical threat scenario due to its combination of expected rates of infection and its relatively high morbidity rates.

Good point on the testing of a-symptomatics lowering all morbidity rates.


Most of the researchers I've come across have made the point that the information/data on this virus's effects across whole populations and within populations is early days and low ) relative to other viruses) - ie we have a LOT to learn about it.

I'm particularly interested to see what happens to Australian statistics two weeks from now - when ( presumably) those in quarantine and those hospitalized should demonstrate the beginnings of a benchmark set of data - post isolation and post quarantine moves.

It is a pity that China's statistics to date - weren't all there for other countries to analyse.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

A weight off my shoulders.

Should try a baby harness

 

[therubbernub]

Anyway it is looked at there is no doubt that the virus presents an a-typical threat scenario due to its combination of expected rates of infection and its relatively high morbidity rates.

Good point on the testing of a-symptomatics lowering all morbidity rates.


Most of the researchers I've come across have made the point that the information/data on this virus's effects across whole populations and within populations is early days and low ) relative to other viruses) - ie we have a LOT to learn about it.

I'm particularly interested to see what happens to Australian statistics two weeks from now - when ( presumably) those in quarantine and those hospitalized should demonstrate the beginnings of a benchmark set of data - post isolation and post quarantine moves.

It is a pity that China's statistics to date - weren't all there for other countries to analyse.

Yes its disappointing that the CCP are playing the obfuscating game . Anecdotal evidence coming out from chinese medical sources and others is that the numbers are MUCH bigger than the CCP are saying. So any conclusions that we draw from China are open to question. So where do we go to get applicable and relevant epidemiology? We can go on ours but we are a month behind the early countires.
Sth Korea- went very hard and early and their experience will be very different to most western lockdowns - hard to draw conclusions atm- but may be useful for guidance when we come out of lockdown eg testing for all Masks for all, instant quarantine and vigorous contact tracing, Mobility suveillance- all things that were once though unthinkable for western society's - may be acceptable after 6 weeks+ of lockdown
Iran- who knows what the situation s there- total chaos
Italy- are still shell shocked and trying to regroup . Hopefully they can start giving us some better data in a few weeks
Spain- ditto Italy
Germany- we should all be looking quite hard at their figures. They seem to have a very low CFR and are seemingly coping well. They tested early.
USA- after a very slow start, they are making up ground. They will analyse the hell out of their stats and will probably end up giving us the best stats.

 

[gandaal]

The USA had over 1000 coronavirus deaths yesterday. They aren't making up ground, they're digging it up and burying people in it.

 

[thylacine60]

one day there'll be a film - a horror comedy - this thread will be the screenplay..........

 

[Arr0w]

Who the main BF characters, based on

 

[DangerousD]

Yes that's correct. You're kids are much less likely to catch coronavirus in a daycare with kids from a number of different families than if they went to their grandparents house.

would you care to explain the math behind, how it’s safer to send my kid to daycare, where they have contact with 5-10 staff and 15-20 kids, with each kid and each staff member, having contact with a minimum of one person before they arrive each day

and sending my son, to my mums house, where there is 2 adults?

 

[DangerousD]

Sure do.

What we can and can't do need to be made CLEARER.

it’s not really the clarity that frustrates me, it’s the inconsistency or the blatant (imo) prioritising the economy over human health/well being.

The main health advisor guy today, came out and said that couples who don’t live with each other are allowed to go to each other’s houses, socially.

yet I can’t visit my mum or dad

 

[DangerousD]

Yes that's correct. You're kids are much less likely to catch coronavirus in a daycare with kids from a number of different families than if they went to their grandparents house.

Add to that, couples who don’t live with other are now allowed to visit each other socially, but you can’t visit your parents.

 

[JoeyPBLUES]

Add to that, couples who don’t live with other are now allowed to visit each other socially, but you can’t visit your parents.

Yeah I mean I know why but it muddies the water a bit. I’ve got a younger mate who’s single and he was saying all the dating apps are quiet atm because of lockdowns. Does this now mean that starts up again? People can now “visit their partner”

 

[Metalcrusher]

it’s not really the clarity that frustrates me, it’s the inconsistency or the blatant (imo) prioritising the economy over human health/well being.

The main health advisor guy today, came out and said that couples who don’t live with each other are allowed to go to each other’s houses, socially.

yet I can’t visit my mum or dad

Its plain out ****ed. Its like making a decision then watering it down thinking of votes.

 

[Jabba73]

Its plain out f’ed. Its like making a decision then watering it down thinking of votes.

Bloke will get splinters sitting on the fence that often

 

[Metalcrusher]

Outbreak: 10 of the Worst Pandemics in History - MPH Online

Scientists and medical researchers have for years have differed over the exact definition of a pandemic (is it a pandemic, or an epidemic), but one thing everyone agrees on is that the word describes the widespread occurrence of disease, in excess of what might normally be expected in a...

www.mphonline.org

But corona ....

 

[therubbernub]

The USA had over 1000 coronavirus deaths yesterday. They aren't making up ground, they're digging it up and burying people in it.

Yes -but i assume you know that there is about a 3 week lag... anyway I was really talking about epidemiology and analysis > They will have a Very big and deep data base to analyse and as far as i can see will be super transparent about their results

 

[gandaal]

would you care to explain the math behind, how it’s safer to send my kid to daycare, where they have contact with 5-10 staff and 15-20 kids, with each kid and each staff member, having contact with a minimum of one person before they arrive each day

and sending my son, to my mums house, where there is 2 adults?

One of Morrison's ministers working out the math

 

[gandaal]

Dragging it back to footy for a second...

Anyone else think the club was relieved to finally have an acceptable excuse to cut ties with Preston?

 

[Arr0w]

Dragging it back to footy for a second...

Anyone else think the club was relieved to finally have an acceptable excuse to cut ties with Preston?

Like any organizations standing down staff, you don't re-hire those that are dragging you down.

Will be interesting which staff Carlton cut