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List Mgmt. All Trades and Draft Part 2- Draft edition

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It's risky. All our eggs in one basket. We've paid a price for someone with 2 years of football at AFL level.

You'd be wanting him to keep his A grade output up as a minimum for what we've paid.

The usual slow starting of recruits like Jetta, Redden and Wellingham (idiot trampoline) can't happen with Kelly.


Is nobody concerned about the pressure the blokes going to have on him to perform and keep his body right?
Concerned but it is risk and reward. We are at a moment when if we get it right perhaps 2 flags await. He can be the difference and certainly no opposition can now close down all our best mids. Someone will always be off the chain. Anyway, time will tell but I'm looking forward to the ride. If we bust then maybe the rebuild will be a little slower.
 
WC value culture and players..We dont treat players as trading cards

Clubs that do and squabble over draft picks trying to screw rival teams are ironically the ones you find in the bottom half of the ladder ie freo
Likewise Essendon being hard arses hasn't exactly led to success.
 
It can't really swing Geelongs way until we understand how they use the picks. I think they'll unearth some gold. They always do. But I have much less faith we'd do the same in our area of need (mids)

A couple of those picks could turn out to be absolute jets in the future but that's not what we're here for. No good having 18 year old rakes in a premiership window that I am sure all of us want to prise as wide open as possible.

I just don't understand the wailing at giving up draft picks (none of them in the top 10, by the way) and no players for a proven player with no injury history, no form slumps and immediate impact in our greatest area of need.
 

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So pick 33 in this draft would be more like a pick 40/50 in a stronger draft...? [emoji848]


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No. This is a normal draft for depth, it’s the picks between 3-20 that are abnormally hard to differentiate between. Last year there was a clear top seven or so, that’s where it’s weaker in 2019.

2020 lacks depth, 2019 doesn’t.


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‘(i) At a National Draft Selection Meeting:
(A) each Club shall exercise a minimum of 3 Draft selections (including selections forfeited under Rules 8.7, 10.10(b), 12.4(b), 13.4(b) and 14.4(d)); and’

Answered my own question.

So currently we are in breach of the national draft rules.

No we're not. Draft picks actually appear out of thin air all the way up until clubs have the minimum number of players on their list. We're taking 52 and 64 to the draft at this stage and upgrading Watson from the rookie list to the main list with a round 5/6/7/8 draft pick etc whatever it ends up being.
 
Re: 52 and 64 - with Watson being upgraded with probably a junk pick - surely we look into the WAFL and mature-age players like Sokol for immediate impact? If we're going to sacrifice all those picks we may as well not do it half-heartedly.
 
You could make arguments for P. Cripps and Bontempelli.

Bont is 24 and has made the AA side twice, won the Bulldogs B&F 3 times, played in a premiership, finished top 10 in the Brownlow 3 times and somehow made the 22under22 team 5 times.

That's a pretty convincing argument.
 
So as a side trade we did 33+57 for 37+52 with Essendon? Even that’s a dud trade. We traded out more points to Essendon than we got, and we were the ones who were moving down the order (points premium goes the other way).

Seriously no idea what we are thinking here.


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No we're not. Draft picks actually appear out of thin air all the way up until clubs have the minimum number of players on their list. We're taking 52 and 64 to the draft at this stage and upgrading Watson from the rookie list to the main list with a round 5/6/7/8 draft pick etc whatever it ends up being.
Devon Robertson at 52 would be nice.
 
So as a side trade we did 33+57 for 37+52 with Essendon? Even that’s a dud trade. We traded out more points to Essendon than we got, and we were the ones who were moving down the order (points premium goes the other way).

Seriously no idea what we are thinking here.


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I don't see the issue with that trade? Geelong were going to demand the pick in the thirties regardless, so we upgraded our pick in the 50s. We could've just given them 33 and stuck with 57. But now we have 52.
 
So as a side trade we did 33+57 for 37+52 with Essendon? Even that’s a dud trade. We traded out more points to Essendon than we got, and we were the ones who were moving down the order (points premium goes the other way).

Seriously no idea what we are thinking here.


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That is us jumping to appease Geelong. Again.

Clearly they asked/demanded another 2nd rounder and instead of telling them to piss off, we've tried to save face by at least upgrading a later pick (57 to 52) rather than give 33 straight up.
 
My biggest concern is that Kelly is a one hit wonder. If we got 5 years of a guy that is actually as good as Dangerfield then we would be laughing, but he isn't at that level. I'm not expecting him to be a dud but Angus Brayshaw polled 21 Brownlow votes last year and 0 this year. Rory Laird polled 19 last year and 2 this year. Shane Edwards and Shaun Higgins were in the AA side last year, where were they this year?

Kelly was runner up in Geelong’s B&F two years in a row. He played 48 games in his first two AFL seasons and has only gotten better over time. Not sure how he could be a one hit wonder off that body of work.

Higgins and Laird were both solid in dud teams. Brayshaw was played out of position and struggled like most of his teammates. Edwards had another outstanding season regardless of whether he made AA.

Is the benchmark that he has to remain in the top 20 or so players in the comp for it to be worth the investment? We’re adding an elite goalkicking midfielder in his prime. Even if he dropped off a little next season he would still be filling a clear need, boosting our chances of winning another flag and freeing up the likes of Shuey and Yeo to do their best work. It’s a no-brainer for me
 

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So as a side trade we did 33+57 for 37+52 with Essendon? Even that’s a dud trade. We traded out more points to Essendon than we got, and we were the ones who were moving down the order (points premium goes the other way).

Seriously no idea what we are thinking here.


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The pick 33 was going regardless so if Essendon was okay with giving us a 5 pick upgrade later in the draft and Geelong was still okay with pick 37 instead of 33 it's a no-brainer. This is actually the least controversial part of the Kelly trade.

Edit:

I feel like people are way too invested in this DVI points crap. It's only useful for academy bidding purposes. Our first three picks this year added up to more than pick 3 - ask Melbourne supporters if they'd happily exchange 14, 24 and 33 for 3.
 
We've paid a heavy price, but we're clearly in win now mode for at least another two years.

We're back in the 1st round of the draft in 2021 and I reckon it will be here that the recruitment team set themselves on starting to hold on to picks & start developing the kids again as we prepare for the eventual "bottom out" and access to top 10 picks.

Let's make hay while the sun is shining, looking forward to seeing how this group of mids sets up next year. :thumbsu:
 
Kinda glad we traded away everything in the up coming draft, means that we dont have to go through people whinging about not getting their prefered kid. One melt an off season is enough.
It's one of my favorite parts though. Considering how well we did in the 2017 draft it was hilarious how negative a lot of people were.
 
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