An extra days break

[CrowAboutIt]

How much does it really matter?

With the talk of getting up for the Richmond game with them having an extra 2 days break I decided to look into our fixture.


-1 = 1 day less break
+1 = 1 day extra break
E = even amount of days break
W = Win
L = Loss
H = Home
A = Away

R1: E L Geelong A
R2: -5 L Port A
R3: E L Syd H
R4: E W Saints A
R5: -1 W Giants H
R6: E W Bull A
R7: -1 L Melb H
R8: BYE
R9: E W Coll H
R10: -3 L Carl A
R11: E W GC H
R12: E L Freo A
R13: E W Kang H
R14: +1 L Ess A
R15: E W Port H
R16: -1 W Giants A
R17: -1 L Hawks H
R18: +2 (Both had a week off) W Coll A
R19: -2 L WC H
R20: +1 W Brisb W
R21: -2 Rich H
R22: +1 Kang A
R23: +1 Saints H

This means we have a total of -10 less days break overall.

So we have:

1 advantage at home while our opponents have 3
5 disadvantages at home while our opponents have 4

We are going at:

Disadvantage: -3
Even: +3
Advantage: +1

Obviously this doesn't take everything into account however it does seem we are getting slightly screwed. It doesn't help that this is such a close season.

 

[Elder van Berlo]

R2: -5 L Port A
R5: -1 W Giants H
R7: -1 L Melb H
R10: -3 L Carl A
R14: +1 L Ess A
R16: -1 W Giants A
R17: -1 L Hawks H
R18: +2 (Both had a week off) W Coll A
R19: -2 L WC H
R20: +1 W Brisb W

Just pulling out the ones where there's actually a difference here. Now I reckon forget the first showdown - it's skewed becaues of the bye and we had 9 days to prepare anyway. Similarly, the Collingwood one pales into insignificance. Really I'm assuming there's a law of diminishing returns as to how useful a day's break is - a 1 day break vs no break surely makes more difference than 100 days break vs 99. We are left with this:

R5: -1 W Giants H
R7: -1 L Melb H
R10: -3 L Carl A
R14: +1 L Ess A
R16: -1 W Giants A
R17: -1 L Hawks H
R19: -2 L WC H
R20: +1 W Brisb W

I'm not sure there's a significant pattern here in terms of effect on wins and losses. We've won games on a shorter break and lost them on a longer break. My observation over the years (no data to back it up) is that a 1 day extra break doesn't have much influence at all, but that teams on a 2 day shorter break tend to struggle, especially when it's 8 days vs 6 days (as opposed to say 9 v 7 or 10 v 8).

The only data we have on that this year is West Coast - given the way we ran out that game and indeed approached it in general, it wouldn't surprise me if we were struggling a little with the shorter break. Another example that I can remember offhand is when we played Collingwood at AAMI in 2012. We were up at 3/4 time in that game and lost by 5 goals.

I guess we will find out more on Saturday night...

 

[SpeciousArgument]

how does that work? where do all the days go?

 

[DD#23]

surprise losses to Carlton and West Coast get put into context there, -3 and -2 days break respectively. Had to play a part considering they were both in VERY average form when we had to play them.

 

[DD#23]

how does that work? where do all the days go?

well the net total for every team for the year would all balance out, but the difference in totals for individual teams come down to what the mob you're playing is coming off of. e.g.

Round 1:
A vs B Friday
C vs D Saturday

Round 2:
A vs C Saturday (A +1, C -1)
B vs D Sunday (B +1, D -1)

Round 3:
A vs D Saturday (A +1, D -1)
B vs C Sunday (B -1, C +1)

so in total A +2, B E, C E, D -2

and the suggestion is that we are D in this situation, i.e. getting shafted by the draw.

 

[Elder van Berlo]

Games in the last 5 years where we have had 2 days more/less break than the opposition, ignoring the bye:

More
Round 3 2009: Adelaide 15.14 (104) def Fremantle 11.14 (80) (9 v 7)
Semi-Final 2009: Collingwood 12.11 (83) def Adelaide 11.12 (78) (8 v 6)
Round 13 2010: Adelaide 16.21 (117) def Melbourne 11.7 (73) (8 v 6)
Round 3 2012: Hawthorn 21.14 (140) def Adelaide 12.12 (84) (8 v 6)
Round 8 2012: Adelaide 19.10 (124) def Carlton 8.7 (55) (8 v 6)

3-2 with 2 extra days break

Less
Round 4 2009: Geelong 21.8 (134) def Adelaide 13.8 (86) (6 v 9)
Round 6 2009: Port Adelaide 15.15 (105) def Adelaide 12.7 (79) (6 v 8)
Round 14 2010: Adelaide 19.10 (124) def Essendon 5.10 (40) (6 v 8)
Round 21 2010: Collingwood 6.18 (54) def Adelaide 7.9 (51) (6 v 8)
Round 6 2011: Adelaide 13.12 (90) def St Kilda 9.17 (71) (7 v 9)
Round 7 2011: Melbourne 22.17 (149) def Adelaide 8.5 (53) (8 v 10)
Round 9 2012: Collingwood 10.15 (75) def Adelaide 6.13 (49) (6 v 8)
Round 9 2013: Adelaide 18.17 (125) def N Melbourne 19.10 (124) (7 v 9)
Round 15 2013: West Coast 11.9 (75) def Adelaide 9.15 (69) (7 v 9)
Round 20 2013: Adelaide 11.13 (79) def N Melbourne 10.10 (70) (7 v 9)
Round 18 2014: West Coast 20.16 (136) def Adelaide 16.9 (105) (6 v 8)

4-7 with 2 less days break.

There's enough joy in these to suggest it doesn't stop you from winning.

 

[woundedcrow]

wow so the losses vs Port, Melb, Carl, Hawks, WC we all had less break than the opposition

just shows how tough this week will be...

should we have rested Sloane / Danger in the last qrter? Surely Grigg and Lyons needed the extra game time and could have benefitied with being out there the entire quarter?

Surely we could have settled for a 40-60 point win by letting these two rest? even then we could have still won by 70-80.

I would start Danger in the forward line and keep him there if we're winning this week....if its a closer game get him into the midfield...

playing Kerridge, Matt Crouch, Scott thompson and Podsiadly could be a good strategy given these players will be more fresh

 

[MyLittleSloaney]

I wish Sando wouldn't focus on this nonsense. Every club has to deal with 6 day breaks. We have a fixture where games are played on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and even Thursdays. No use complaining, just gotta go out there and play.

 

[feenix67]

It's not just a 6 day break though. It's a 6 day break after a hot game with the second longest flight home (minimises recovery time). And the opponent will have 8 days.

It's a valid concern - we're talking professional sport where 1% matters in tight games. Poor scheduling.