Arbitrage-Middles Thread

[targett]

ATP Mens Tennis Challenger Shenzhen
Games Line
Youzhny -5.5 $2.60 pinn
Moriya +5.5 $1.75 Crown
4.4%

 

[targett]

Benalla Race 5 PLACE Back to Lay JESTADREAMA
Centrebet $3.30 Place
BF $2.62 Lay Place
6.66%

 

[X_box_X]

Benalla Race 5 PLACE Back to Lay JESTADREAMA
Centrebet $3.30 Place
BF $2.62 Lay Place
6.66%

There are only seven horses in this race.

If this horse finishes third, you will lose on both bets.

 

[targett]

There are only seven horses in this race.

If this horse finishes third, you will lose on both bets.

yes scratchings got me

 

[Dan26]

Pricing error at Neds

UFC
Jorge Masvidal 2.35
Stephen Thompson 2.60

Thompson should be 1.60

 

[HumanMeatball]

NBA Jazz vs Portland

Crown- Joe ingles over 9 points $1.98

Sportsbet- joe ingles under 10.5 points $2.01

 

[targett]

UEFA - Europa League
REAL SOCIEDAD vs VARDAR SKOPJE
totals
o3.5 $2.09 pinn
u3.5 $2.08 MadB
4.25%

 

[targett]

Mens Tennis ATP Challenger Shenzhen
Home Line - Away Line Games Line
Youzhny M vs -5.5 Pinn $2.32
Gunneswaran +5.5 Cwn $1.82
1.95%

 

[targett]

Basketball Europe : Euroleague
Home Line Away Line Handicap
Real Madrid -10.5 $2.23 Pinn
Khimky +10.5 $1.88 Uni
2%

 

[HumanMeatball]

Must admit I’m pretty reluctant to throw large amounts down on a arb in case one side cancels the bet. Does that actually occur often enough to worry about?

 

[Sabbathen]

It’s called a palpable error and yes it happens. You need to be smart about it and not abuse an obvious pricing error.

 

[HumanMeatball]

It’s called a palpable error and yes it happens. You need to be smart about it and not abuse an obvious pricing error.

Yeah I know if a bookie has the odds the wrong way around for each team then obviously I wouldn’t use that as an arb. I’m more referring to say throwing 1k down on a 2-7% arb where bookies clearly just have differing views on it occurring, eg one having the outsider at $1.95 and the other bookie having the outsider at $2.40. Is there still a factor of risk?

 

[X_box_X]

Yeah I know if a bookie has the odds the wrong way around for each team then obviously I wouldn’t use that as an arb. I’m more referring to say throwing 1k down on a 2-7% arb where bookies clearly just have differing views on it occurring, eg one having the outsider at $1.95 and the other bookie having the outsider at $2.40. Is there still a factor of risk?

The risk in that situation wouldn't come with voiding bets. The risk you have to be careful about are different rules books have.

Abandoned matches, retirements, reduced or shortened matches. They are usually the main risks.

The example you have provided wouldn't be a palpable error, just one bookie being slow to react to market movement. The error is on them being too slow, not at setting the odds, so the bets in those circumstances would stand.

 

[HumanMeatball]

The risk in that situation wouldn't come with voiding bets. The risk you have to be careful about are different rules books have.

Abandoned matches, retirements, reduced or shortened matches. They are usually the main risks.

The example you have provided wouldn't be a palpable error, just one bookie being slow to react to market movement. The error is on them being too slow, not at setting the odds, so the bets in those circumstances would stand.

Cheers makes sense. Hopefully for niche markets this sort of info isn’t to difficult to find

 

[Sabbathen]

Another one to be aware of is results between books including or not including overtime.

 

[targett]

Yeah I know if a bookie has the odds the wrong way around for each team then obviously I wouldn’t use that as an arb. I’m more referring to say throwing 1k down on a 2-7% arb where bookies clearly just have differing views on it occurring, eg one having the outsider at $1.95 and the other bookie having the outsider at $2.40. Is there still a factor of risk?

Other problems: Bookmakers who suspect arbing can set very low maximum stake limits, making arbing insufficiently profitable. Capital diffusion is serious; many bookmakers make it very easy to deposit funds and difficult to withdraw them. Making a return involves many bets spread over typically many bookmakers so keeping track is a considerable challenge, and requires excellent record-keeping.

 

[X_box_X]

Another one to be aware of is results between books including or not including overtime.

Yep, fourth quarter total markets also effect this. Some books will include the overtime period as the fourth quarter, so if you select under 45.5 points being scored in the final quarter of an AFL final, let's just choose two random teams like Port Adelaide and West Coast, and the total score between the third quarter ending and the siren sounding to end the fourth quarter falls under 45.5 points (let's choose 29 as a random number), you'd think you were all sweet and have won that bet. Let's, however, assume a corporate book (I'll randomly suggest TAB Touch) includes the extra time period as part of the fourth quarter, and let's randomly assume an extra 34 points are scored in the ten minutes of extra time, bringing the total score kicked after the end of the third quarter to a random 63 points, then your bet with TAB Touch would lose, as would you arbed bet of over 45.5 points being scored in the fourth quarter with a separate book.

 

[Sabbathen]

Cheers makes sense. Hopefully for niche markets this sort of info isn’t to difficult to find

Bookmakers usually have their terms and conditions for each sport on their website. If it’s not in black and white there, I’d seek clarification before you bet.

 

[Sabbathen]

Yep, fourth quarter total markets also effect this. Some books will include the overtime period as the fourth quarter, so if you select under 45.5 points being scored in the final quarter of an AFL final, let's just choose two random teams like Port Adelaide and West Coast, and the total score between the third quarter ending and the siren sounding to end the fourth quarter falls under 45.5 points (let's choose 29 as a random number), you'd think you were all sweet and have won that bet. Let's, however, assume a corporate book (I'll randomly suggest TAB Touch) includes the extra time period as part of the fourth quarter, and let's randomly assume an extra 34 points are scored in the ten minutes of extra time, bringing the total score kicked after the end of the third quarter to a random 63 points, then your bet with TAB Touch would lose, as would you arbed bet of over 45.5 points being scored in the fourth quarter with a separate book.

That would definitely suck and easily overlooked due to the once in a blue moon occasion an AFL game has extra time!

 

[ricardogp]

Another one to be aware of is results between books including or not including overtime.

I've been stung before on an NBA line. Was on the plus, game was a draw. Expecting payout... Lost the spread on OT...

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[HumanMeatball]

China Cba - Shanghai sharks 3.60 at crown
Guangdong 2.10 at sportsbet
Over a 30% arb

I chucked $100 worth between both to make $30 and only risk 30 if one side cancels. Not sure id be chucking heaps down as I have either got confused or it’s a mistake

 

[ricardogp]

China Cba - Shanghai sharks 3.60 at crown
Guangdong 2.10 at sportsbet
Over a 30% arb

I chucked $100 worth between both to make $30 and only risk 30 if one side cancels. Not sure id be chucking heaps down as I have either got confused or it’s a mistake

Nice find. Shanghai is $3.50 at Ladbrokes as well so now sure which book is 'right'. Have done the same... Looks like Ladbrokes was going to limit me but didn't.

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[HumanMeatball]

The line on sportsbet for this match is

Shangha -1.5 $1.83 And Guangdong +1.5 at 1.90

Unibet and most other places

Shanghai +7.5 at 1.90 and Guangdong-7.5 at 1.82

I’m lead to believe sportsbet just have no clue

 

[HumanMeatball]

Alright they have changed there odds to what most other bookies have now. Is cashing out the profit a silly move?

 

[ricardogp]

I'm not. Pretty sure you lose a % when you cash out.

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