Arbitrage-Middles Thread

[X_box_X]

Sportsbet let me on for a max of $1.45. We're eating lobster tonight boys.

Did you have any luck with the banks in allowing you to take out a mortgage to place that bet?

 

[Sabbathen]

Here we go...
Tennis Challenger Tour - Quimper H2H
Clement Larrie $2.17 Pinn
Quentin Gueydan $3 B365
25.95%

$300 max bet with b365 = $185 profit*



















*Clear palp, please don't actually back this

 

[NutnButAPnut]

a couple for tongihts big bashes

1st game: Worral over 20.5 performace at 2.65 on topsport - Under 20.5 at 1.72 on SB
2nd game: Holland over 20.5 performace at 2.45 on Topsort - Under 20.5 at 1.83 SB

 

[NutnButAPnut]

Here we go...
Tennis Challenger Tour - Quimper H2H
Clement Larrie $2.17 Pinn
Quentin Gueydan $3 B365
25.95%

$300 max bet with b365 = $185 profit*

only problem with that one is the after 1st set retire. pinny pay out and 365 void, but i prob woulda taken that risk at those prices if i could get a decent amount on, gone now tho.

 

[X_box_X]

only problem with that one is the after 1st set retire. pinny pay out and 365 void, but i prob woulda taken that risk at those prices if i could get a decent amount on, gone now tho.

When the Pinnacle price is over $2, and the arb is 100% or less, then don't worry about the retirement rule. It works in your favour. It's when the Pinnacle price is under $2 that it begins to work against you.

This of course assumes there is no player more likely than the other to retire. If the player paying over $2 with Pinnacle has a history of retiring, then that throws in a curve ball.

If you take 1000 bets on a Tennis match with the head to head odds where the Pinnacle price is $2.25 and the other book who voids bet unless the match is completed is paying $1.80, I am happy to take this on. These head to head odds will give you a 100% return (break even) in a completed match, but if there are ten retirements after the first set in those 1000 bets, the only way you make a loss is if the players paying $2.25 retire in seven of those ten matches.

Obviously the higher the Pinnacle price, the more this plays in your favour. It's a different form of arbitrage betting where you place bets based on books having different rules for settling bets.

Cricket is another one I like to use to take advantage of different rules.

For example, the Big Bash, total innings runs on Betfair. Betfair rules stipulate that as long as five overs are completed in the innings, all bets will stand on total innings runs. A lot of books require a full innings to be completed for bets on this market to stand, while Topsport requires 90% of the innings to be completed. The way to use this to your advantage is to back the overs with one book, and lay the overs with Betfair. If the rain comes, then you're laughing.

 

[Mr Cashie]

Rugby 7s Women
Canada $1.38 Crownbet
Russia $4.00 Bet365

 

[Mr Cashie]

For those not yet limited by those tossers at Sportsbet

South Africa 7s $1.44 Bet365
USA 7s $3.60 Sportsbet

 

[Mr Cashie]

South Africa 7s $1.36 Ladbrokes
Australia 7s $4.60 Topsport

 

[scottyjc]

Guys when playing over/unders - CrownBet often has even numbers.

For example - Isaiah Thomas Total Assists Over/Under 4 - if he gets 4 exactly, all bets refunded correct?

 

[Sabbathen]

Yep

 

[NutnButAPnut]

Superbowl Anthem Arb/Unlikely Middle
2mins or more @2.50 on Ladbrokes
Under 124.5 secs $1.88 on Crown (123.5 at 1.90 Sportsbet)

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Not sure if anyone else got on, but Sportsbet were offering odds of Tomic to leave the jungle at $1.70.

In the last 5 mins of The Project before I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here, they crossed live to Dr. Chris Brown and Julia Morris who confirmed Tomic had indeed left the jungle. The thing was, Sportsbet didn't pull the market, and soon enough the odds were hammered into $1.30 in the space of minutes, while I could only chuck down a couple of hundred (as I was still weary that the hosts may have been playing a ruse, and were drumming up fake-speculation.)

Spewing I didn't put more down, but still I can't complain with a free $200~ or thereabouts.

 

[karaoke]

AFLW
Melb 1.36 Ladbrokes
GWS 4.25 Neds

 

[XXRL]

Tom Brady Passing Yards

Over 287.5 - $2.20 at Unibet (NFL Specials)
Under 294.5 - $1.87 at WH

 

[Dan26]

Tom Brady Passing Yards

Over 287.5 - $2.20 at Unibet (NFL Specials)
Under 294.5 - $1.87 at WH

Bet365 Under 289.5 yards $2.00

 

[Djoker]

Tom Brady Passing Yards

Over 287.5 - $2.20 at Unibet (NFL Specials)
Under 294.5 - $1.87 at WH

Bet365 Under 289.5 yards $2.00

Unibet only let me put on about ~$75, I have abused their unibest specials in the past though

 

[NutnButAPnut]

Superbowl
Trey Flowers NO sacks on 365 at 1.40 - over .5 sacks on Crown at 6.50 (also 1 or more on Neds at 3.90)
Fletcher cox NO sacks on 365 at 1.40 - 1 or more sacks on Neds at 3.80

Edit: Prob not worth it in the end for 365/neds arbs, not sure how books will grade half sack towards each side... prob still worth the risk for me on the Flowers 365/crown one

Edit2: someone checked on chat and bet365 settlement team has said a half sack wont count as a loss on bet365s "no" market. so the crown/365 arb should be good.
1 sack = crown win and 365 loss
Half sack = bet365 win and crown loss (maybe push as it is listed as 0.5)
No sack = 365 win and crown loss

 

[Sabbathen]

Unibet only let me put on about ~$75, I have abused their unibest specials in the past though

They offered me a $6 stake haha, what a joke
Topsport have the unders at $2.10

 

[Djoker]

LBJ >26.5 1.88 SB
LBJ <27 2.28 Topsport
Small 2.5% return but could get a push and win at 27 (I think)

The time it took me to find this probably wasn't worth the effort - how do you guys do it? Alerts?

 

[NutnButAPnut]

Superbowl
Filthy to be Timberlakes 1st song at $2 on Neds/Lads (next best is 1.57 on SB)
Any song other than filthy to be 1st @5.75 on Pinny
Edit: been smashed now, can still get filthy on Unibet at 1.60. not filthy just under $4 on pinny now

America the beautiful over 80.5 secs at 1.50 on Neds (was 1.80 until 15 mins ago)
America the beautiful under 82.5 secs at 3.30 on Pinny

Pinks hair colour Blonde/White at 2.50 on Lads - Any color apart from Blonde/Platinum(bascially white) on Pinny at 2.50

Timberlake to NOT wear at hat during HT at $2 on Lads - To wear a hat at anytime of HT 2.68 on Pinny

 

[ippxss]

Cheers Nut!!!

 

[NutnButAPnut]

Foles under 300.5 yards on sb byo at 1.40
300 or more on neds at 4.50
My limit on neds was to win 200, not sure if thats a set limit or just mine

 

[ippxss]

Foles under 300.5 yards on sb byo at 1.40
300 or more on neds at 4.50
My limit on neds was to win 200, not sure if thats a set limit or just mine

Got the same. Also a smaller arb opportunity with Brady on the same books.

 

[PHX]

Foles under 300.5 yards on sb byo at 1.40
300 or more on neds at 4.50
My limit on neds was to win 200, not sure if thats a set limit or just mine

$4.65 on BlueBet as well.

 

[Mr Cashie]

Jrue Holliday - 3 point market

o1.5 $2.40 Unibet
u1.5 $1.88 Crown

5.15%