It's really stopped over the last few days.
AUD/USD Exchange
- Thread starter Andyroo
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Probably the lull before the rate announcement on Tuesday. If it breaks through parity, I expect it to keep on going.
What to do, what to do 
Is it likely to go back up?
Is it likely to go back up?
What to do, what to do
Long term trend is up, so I am staying with it.
I agree with this. We should get to parity imo.
WhyAlwaysMe
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Crept back up to 91. Will be leaving in 3 weeks so I'm watching it very closely.
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Forex is interesting, and hard to predict.
If were out of GFC, commodities rising, USA with big deficit, then maybe parity is the go.
IMHO the global fiscal stimulus has just postponed the inevitable. Anyone though about where these $$$billions are coming from? Maybe there is a tooth fairy!!!
I think we'll have a good run, a big collapse, then in a decade we'll be around 75c again.
If were out of GFC, commodities rising, USA with big deficit, then maybe parity is the go.
IMHO the global fiscal stimulus has just postponed the inevitable. Anyone though about where these $$$billions are coming from? Maybe there is a tooth fairy!!!
I think we'll have a good run, a big collapse, then in a decade we'll be around 75c again.
You just print more money when in trouble don't you ? Inflate your way out of debt. That's how the Fed does it, so it must be right, right ?
Curency rates are a comparison of the relative strength of two currencies. Even if we hit hard times, the mess that the US is in will mean they will feel it twice as hard. Also, I can't see US interest rates exceeding ours in the short to medium term. As such, I can see parity and more coming. Good for travelling, and thankfully for much of our lucrative exports (mining) our customers don't have a lot of luxury in not buying/finding competitors/substitute products. We would have made parity last year if not for the dramatic over-reaction by the RBA in lowering rates.
- Banned
- #111
This assumes that the forex markets behave rationally....
They don't.
The US may well be buggared and the US dollar may well be overvalued v ours and some others but there are reasons beside basic underlying value why the US may strengthen or at least not get weaker.
I agree that over the short and medium term all markets behave irrationally. But if the interest rate differential between the US and Aus continues to widen, an influx of funds into Australia will definitely occur. Of course there are other factors, but you only need to look at the recent (past 2-3 years) movements in the AUD/USD and interest rate movements to see there is a strong relationship.
- Banned
- #115
Interesting to see the downwards trend seeming to accelerate of late and to consolidate a price below 90 cents ....
Parity seems a fair way off now.
86.61 as I write this ...
Parity seems a fair way off now.
86.61 as I write this ...
I knew I shouldn't have waited like some on here suggested.
- Banned
- #117
I knew I shouldn't have waited like some on here suggested.
Give it time, It willl get back up. The dow is being a bitch atm though.
Price decrease is primarily due to the RBA not raising rates as everyone expected them to do. Once we see the RBA lifting rates again, so will the AUD.
- Banned
- #119
The down trend (minus a small upswing a couple weeks back) has been reasonably consistent over a period longer than the period immediately impacted by the RBA decision.
Its been trending down for quite some time now.
You must have a very short term definition of trend. The AUD/USD was 0.60c this time last year, and is still only 0.07c off the 52 week high. Hardly a down trend by any medium to long-term definition.
With no other major, developed country other than Australia considering interest rate increases, the dollar isn't going south from here.
- Banned
- #121
From November
Now
FWIW, I hope you are right.
But the 7 cent change you talk about is substantial and there has been a downtrend for several weeks. Clearly thats not a long term trend but there are a lot of reasons we should be peaking v the US at the moment....
Again, I hope your right but wondering how much you might be prepared to wager on parity and over what timeframe?
Now
FWIW, I hope you are right.
But the 7 cent change you talk about is substantial and there has been a downtrend for several weeks. Clearly thats not a long term trend but there are a lot of reasons we should be peaking v the US at the moment....
Again, I hope your right but wondering how much you might be prepared to wager on parity and over what timeframe?
I wager through my own trading, and I continue to be long the AUD/USD, despite the recent short term downtrend. I don't set timeframes for my trading, only once the long term trend reverses will I exit and consider a reversal. My prediction of parity was not short term, as I am not a short term trader. I am happy to be proven wrong, but I doubt the AUD/USD will end up far below 0.85c in the short term, and am quite comfortable with the notion of parity in the long term.
Merely highlighting that it is now only 0.03 off the 52 week high, meaning your "short term downtrend" must be over by your own definition of trend.
