Bluemour Discussion Thread XIV - Facts Not Welcome

[Aphrodite]

I'm staying out of this one. Last team I picked a fight with this way was the Pies as until this year we'd won a final more recently than them and nek minnit grand final.

But they choked.

 

[GoBlues!]

GB he could even go at 1 if we don’t have the pick, unbelievable talent

In theory you’re right schooner.

But imo, for Rankine to go pick 1 or 2 the SA teams have to get their hands on these picks which I think is too much of stretch for them. Pick 3 or 4 might be within reach but even then I would think Lukosius will go before Rankine, remembering that Lukosius is that once in a generation player - well at least until the next generational player comes along.

All speculative guesswork, time will tell.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Flight risks are impossible to factor in. Nothing says 2018 draft picks will be worse than 2019 for go-home-disease. But plenty folks say 2018 top-end draft talent is superior to 2019 talent.

I put no stock in what Sam Walsh said. If Gold Coast are a basket-case Sam Walsh will leave in 2 years just like Luko and co.

Gold Coast may be best advised to simply use picks 2 & 3 on the King twins.

Of course you can factor in flight risks.

You've got 3 very good SA-born players, who are being aggressively targeted by the SA teams. I don't know what the top end of next year's draft looks like, but I'm sure the folks at GC have a good idea about who is firming for a top 10 spot.

So if they can get Pick 5 for May, they set themselves up with Picks 2, 3 and 5.

Hail Mary = Luko, Rankine, Rozee. Could pay dividends, but could also completely bust with all of them bailing at the same time.
Safer bet = trade pick 2 or 3 for a future pick, take the Kings with the picks they keep, and go into next year with another two top 5 picks.
Safest bet = trade picks 2 and 3 for Pick 1 and a future first. Take Walsh, trusting him to be more loyal than the SA lads, plus best available at 5 (Smith?), and go into next year with another two top 5 picks.

I get what you're saying - the comments from Walsh aren't a binding agreement, and he could also jump ship if they continue to be a rabble. But if they continue to be a rabble it doesn't matter who they draft, so the percentage play is to try and get the bloke who is most likely to stick around if they can get the ship back on course.

 

[HBF]

I'm getting a sense that not much has happened today.. besides SOS suggesting Pick 1 is still possibly on the table?

Pretty much.
Nothing much will happen until Wednesday if it happens at all.

 

[dlb99]

great gc bringing in all these high draft picks - for us.........

GC brings em' young, they leave, hence GC finishes near the bottom again, get more kids in, then they leave, rinse and repeat.

Gold Coast ain't a sports town.

 

[Mezzoculo]

Not sure how we land #2 with next year's 1st and steak knives. For a start this year's draft is rated more highly and next year's pick could be anything. Gold Coast wouldn't deal expecting us to finish last next year.

GCS don't have it (yet) but a trade with our future first for pick 5 at its heart seems a much easier sell to all partiparties concerned. Gold Coast give themselves access to top end picks across two drafts while we can either bring in another young gun or improve our draft hand.
We'd need to secure a future second for this to happen though, which might be tricky in a strong draft.

 

[Smegger]

Is that Shiel in the sky? ....Myst by that much.

 

[Poorman53]

Have 2020 picks

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So that will be two years without 1st round draft picks then. The only reason we should trade next years 1st is for a player. Extra picks aren't the panacea.

 

[dlb99]

Hail Mary = Luko, Rankine, Rozee. Could pay dividends, but could also completely bust with all of them bailing at the same time.
Safer bet = trade pick 2 or 3 for a future pick, take the Kings with the picks they keep, and go into next year with another two top 5 picks.
Safest bet = trade picks 2 and 3 for Pick 1 and a future first. Take Walsh, trusting him to be more loyal than the SA lads, plus best available at 5 (Smith?), and go into next year with another two top 5 picks.

Sam Walsh is just as likely to leave Gold Coast as Luko and Rankine. He said one motherhood statement and some are taking it to the bank, it is pre-draft drivel.

Geelong will be whispering in Walsh's ear from day one at the Gold Coast; come to us, come play with Paddy Danger, yada yada.

 

[dlb99]

Pretty much.
Nothing much will happen until Wednesday if it happens at all.

It will be on TV right? Kano, Barrett and Lordo?

 

[GordonBlue]

TDK no chance of been delisted. Polson, Macreadie, Pickett and JSOS all unlikely.

I give you TDK. Not the others.

 

[dlb99]

I get what you're saying - the comments from Walsh aren't a binding agreement, and he could also jump ship if they continue to be a rabble. But if they continue to be a rabble it doesn't matter who they draft, so the percentage play is to try and get the bloke who is most likely to stick around if they can get the ship back on course.

Nailed it.

I can't see Gold Coast succeeding, they will be a long-term rabble. Look at the history of sporting teams on the Coast.

They should just merge with the Bears and the AFL should accept that QLD can only handle one team. Lethal was right from the start, the Bears and no one else up their.

 

[The Bighouse]

I give you TDK. Not the others.

Polson & Macreadie contracted beyond next year so won’t be delisted.

 

[katmanblue]

Then in 2020 we have nothing and have to start selling 2021 picks. Not a good cycle to get into

Didn't say it was ideal. But we can live with 1 year of no high picks considering how many we already have on the list.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jimsta10]

Why are you playing with my emotions 2blue4u ?

 

[Navara79]

Why are you playing with my emotions 2blue4u ?

Likes. . .

 

[Nori]

Good to see a few people thinking outside the square and coming around to a Cuningham trade.

I like him and it’d be sad. But rather him go than SPS.

That’s not thinking outside the square. SOS is not going to get anything for Cuningham.

 

[Mr Blonde]

Getting Newman is a no brainer now. Not as good as Casey IMO but we're starting to lack a bit of depth in mid sized defenders.

 

[rp84]

Can we stop with all the Byrne stuff in this thread?

 

[jezzajay]

Me waiting for a new NO DISCUSSION post

Mate I'm falling asleep here...but that's nothing to do with the big lunch I ate and now trying to get through my afternoon in front of the computer trying to keep my eyes open...struggling big time!!
A real bluemour would perk me up nicely this arvo....c'mon SOS!!!

In saying that, I am pretty content with our trade period thus far.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Perhaps a tad. Tone it down? Ok.

U can be as angry as you bloody well want...a bit of context would be appreciated though!!!

 

[Jabba73]

How can we possibly end up with 1&2?

AFL gives us a proper Priority Pick

 

[gandaal]

I give you TDK. Not the others.

Polson signed a two year contract recently.

 

[Benaly28]

Nothings happened today,two more days and still the big ones to come.I don’t understand why the trade period goes for 10 days.Start it Monday finish it Friday.All the extra days is just posturing and clubs puffing out their chests.

 

[B if i Know]

We showed great improvement last year from 2016.
Losing Gibbs was never part of our plan when the call was made 3 yrs ago to rebuild...big setback.
Losing Docherty also blindsided us, another big setback.
Our 2018 Best HB was called by many as Doch, March, Williamson. (12 games out of 66 between them!)
Injuries to so many important players this year was another. (Kreuzer R1)
2018 turns out a disaster.

Getting pick 1 this year would never have been in the original plan.
Made the most from Gibbs departure, with short/long term gain.
Docherty back 2019.
Important players back fit, ready to go. (Fingers crossed)
3 starting 22 locked in during this trade period + at least Walsh?

Am obviously very optimistic about next year.
You get my drift people....post long enough for a rookie i reckon.