Breakout player for 2026

[kazzooka]

There are many i'm expecting great improvement/more consistent output from in Dear, Lewis, Mackenzie, Butler, Weddle, Day, Watson, Reeves and a smokey chance with McCabe.

But gave my vote to Josh Ward. 2024 he was fringe but played some good late season games and finals. Last year he stood up in Day's absence as a consistent best 22 player and reliable mid. I am expecting end of 2026 that won't be talking about the big 2 in the midfield it will be the big 3 in Day, Newcombe and Ward who are tearing teams apart.

I have high hopes that we will transform the side to really stay top 4 all year and absolutely bury the weak sides that we didn't really do in the past. North, Richmond, West Coast, Essendon, Melbourne, Carlton.

 

[cryptor]

Perceptions on this stuff are fascinating. 0 votes here for Blake Hardwick. Now, don’t get me wrong, nobody in their right mind would nominate him for a ‘breakout’ year in 26, especially given how good he’s been for several years already and the fact that everyone on this board knows it.

But you could see late last year he was finally starting to just get some recognition in the broader media, eg Nathan Buckley in commentary calling him the best small defender in the comp, Richo being very complimentary etc.

Now if that continues into 26, such that he enters serious contention for the first time for AA etc, would the media call it a ‘break out’ year for him? My hunch is no, I reckon they’d ultimately concede that they’re re-framing him as a player. But it’s still an interesting question.

"It's fascinating nobody has mentioned the guy who will be 29yo by his next AFL game and is already being recognised externally as the best in the league for his position. Personally I wouldn't nominate him as having a breakout, nor do I think any sane person would. But would the media? I also think not."

Sorry to take the piss but your post amused me.

 

[matey]

Sad seeing Worps leave but keeping positive and backing in Ward to fill the spot …… full time to spread his wings and fly!

 

[Cannyman]

Hardwick will make the All Australian team this year. He was starting to get talked up by the media last year, which is a good sign. Not sure if that makes him a ‘breakout’ player next year, but he’ll be a good show nonetheless.

 

[Tall poppy Syndrome]

"It's fascinating nobody has mentioned the guy who will be 29yo by his next AFL game and is already being recognised externally as the best in the league for his position. Personally I wouldn't nominate him as having a breakout, nor do I think any sane person would. But would the media? I also think not."

Sorry to take the piss but your post amused me.

The danger of sharing my internal monologues. It’s fraught.

 

[checkraiseulite]

weddle could be anything. wiz.

 

[Randy Campbell]

Ned Reeves.

 

[madhawksfan]

Went with Weddle but could’ve easily voted for Ward, Dear, Butler, Wiz, Frenchie or Croc. Reeves another who could take it to new heights.

Shows how exciting the upcoming season is with so many younger players on the verge of taking it to the next level.

That’s without even factoring in the draftees or guys like Scrim, Ginni, Chol and Battle who took their games to new levels last year.

Or Lewis and Day who just need a clear run with injuries.

So much potential in this group.

 

[Strebi3]

Croc. Finally training as a mid and has produced some good footy in patches but never consistently (although his 2024 season to some was criminally underrated). Just always looks set to explode, I'm hoping this is the year we see it

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Too many to pick from.

The following I think could make their first AA squad in 2026:

Scrimshaw, Weddle, Watson, Ward, MacDonald, Lewis, Meek.

Butler and Mackenzie are the 2 on the periphery of best 23 in recent years that should solidify themselves.

A full season of Dear and he might be the most exciting prospect on our list once he reaches 50 odd games.

If Mraz pushes his way into our best back 7 than that will be some breakout.

Would love Sicily and Moore to find their very best again in 2026.

A healthy Will Day will be as influential as any player in the game in 2026. Beyond stats. Everyone walks taller next to him and he regains momentum. Cats and Danger don't roll in the third term of the prelim for as long if we had Will.

Will would taken ownership of the situation and gone toe to toe with him. Isn't as big as Danger but can be as physical as anybody to his own detriment. He would have been throwing himself at him trying to limit his influence for sure.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Croc. Finally training as a mid and has produced some good footy in patches but never consistently (although his 2024 season to some was criminally underrated). Just always looks set to explode, I'm hoping this is the year we see it

He's got all the tools, he just needs to add physicality to his game. Get the hard ball when it's there to be won and be strong defensively too.

 

[ppphawk]

He's got all the tools, he just needs to add physicality to his game. Get the hard ball when it's there to be won and be strong defensively too.

Thats what worries me about croc in the midfield.
Hope he proves me wrong.

 

[kazzooka]

Thats what worries me about croc in the midfield.
Hope he proves me wrong.

That and some of his positioning when he has been in the middle or even just pushing up to stoppages on wings etc has been pretty bad.

Hopefully training with the mids more he will know better where to setup in certain situations.

 

[Brant]

Mitch Lewis (please, sweet baby Jeebus, let him remain fit )

 

[bigmaxi]

Perceptions on this stuff are fascinating. 0 votes here for Blake Hardwick. Now, don’t get me wrong, nobody in their right mind would nominate him for a ‘breakout’ year in 26, especially given how good he’s been for several years already and the fact that everyone on this board knows it.

But you could see late last year he was finally starting to just get some recognition in the broader media, eg Nathan Buckley in commentary calling him the best small defender in the comp, Richo being very complimentary etc.

Now if that continues into 26, such that he enters serious contention for the first time for AA etc, would the media call it a ‘break out’ year for him? My hunch is no, I reckon they’d ultimately concede that they’re re-framing him as a player. But it’s still an interesting question.

Yep, an overnight sensation that we have know about for years !! AA would be well deserved.

 

[bigmaxi]

Been a while thinking on this and my pick is Sam Butler. We have witnessed some hints at his talents and he has shown us all his tenacity. Hard as a cats head and will play midfield and HHF or defensive forward. So glad we convinced him to stay at the club. Just a note that when we are firing we are rotating several thru the midfield. There is a guy at the Lions who is pretty handy named Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

26

Ht

181cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

, Sam could be our handy guy.

 

[Ka Norkers]

Brett Ratten

Brett Ratten

Age

54

Ht

184cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.4

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

10.3

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

3.0

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.4

5star

K

13.8

5star

HB

12.6

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

on the Hawks podcast mentioned one player first when asked how the boys are travelling preseason.
No surprise to me, it was Noah Mraz.
IMO, the kid is going to be a star, and should debut reasonably early this year.
Settled back six, no doubt, and a fabulous one at that. However, statistically, there will be at least one injury reasonably early, or the coaches may decide to rest TB at some point, and I think this kid will be the first taxi in line.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Thats what worries me about croc in the midfield.
Hope he proves me wrong.

He got better at it last year. Was solid with his tackling. Think he's realised in order to be a better player there's things you need to do out on the field that help the team not just show pony flashy goals and celebrations.

 

[wizzard400]

Based off the voting most people probably know what I’m about to say, but I’d wager it’s based more on the eye test than proper analysis.

Here’s why I think Josh Ward is going to have a genuine breakout season in 2026.

You could make a reasonable argument that he already “broke out” in 2025, and to a degree that’s fair. But statistically and role-wise, I’d describe 2025 as the year he went from a solid contributor or promising youngster into what is now a genuinely good young AFL midfielder. To me, 2025 was the foundation year. 2026 is the year he’s primed to take the next step into that next tier.

Let’s start with what he actually did in 2025.

He played 25 games (not including finals) and averaged 20.6 disposals per game, split almost perfectly evenly between kicks (10.4) and handballs (10.2). He also averaged 3.2 marks, 3.6 tackles and 321.7 metres gained per game.

Those are quietly very strong numbers for a 22-year-old midfielder who wasn’t even Hawthorn’s primary on-baller.

What stands out most to me is the consistency of his ball-winning. Averaging over 20 disposals across a full season already puts him in solid midfield territory, and his ceiling is clearly higher than that. He hit a season-high 31 disposals in the semi-final against Adelaide, a sudden-death final against the minor premiers no less. That’s not junk-time accumulation - that’s winning the ball under serious heat in a big game. It shows us he can scale his output up when the stakes are highest.

Another underrated part of his game is his kick–handball balance, which often goes unnoticed when analyzing player performance. He was almost dead even at roughly 10 of each per game. That tells you he’s not just a one-dimensional link player on the outside, and he’s not just a pure inside handballer either. He can operate in tight, dish it out at stoppages, and also move the ball forward by foot. That kind of balance is usually a really good indicator for midfielders who later become more damaging and more complete players.

His finals performance only strengthened that case. That 31-disposal semi-final wasn’t just about volume, it was about composure and presence in a high-pressure environment. For young mids, those games are often the “oh, this guy’s real” moment, and Ward absolutely had one of those in September.

It’s also worth noting that Hawthorn internally clearly saw the same trajectory. He was named the club’s Most Improved Player for 2025, which lines up perfectly with what the numbers and the eye test were both showing. He went from being a depth midfielder or rotation piece, to someone the coaching staff clearly trusted as part of the core on-ball mix.

So why do I think 2026 is the real breakout year, rather than just "another small step"?

First, the age and games curve is right in the goldilocks zone. Ward will be 23 years old and roughly 90 games into his AFL career by the end of next season. Historically, that’s right in the sweet spot where good young midfielders make their biggest leap. He’s past the stage of just learning how to survive at AFL level, and into the stage where players start asserting themselves physically and tactically.

Second, the opportunity is going to be there. With no Worpel and Will Day missing time early in 2026 and Hawthorn already increasing Ward’s midfield responsibility throughout 2025, there’s a very real chance he becomes a more permanent centre bounce midfielder rather than a rotation option. More midfield minutes, more first-use possessions and more responsibility usually equals a jump in both volume and impact.

Third, his next obvious areas of growth are the exact ones that tend to lift a midfielder into the next tier. Right now he’s already good at winning the ball, good by hand, good on the spread and solid defensively. The two things that usually jump next for mids at his stage are contested possessions and metres gained. If he lifts those even moderately, his entire stat profile suddenly looks a lot more like a top-end midfielder rather than just a solid one.

For me, a genuine breakout season from Ward in 2026 looks something like this: pushing up into the 23–25 disposals per game range, getting closer to 4–5 tackles per game, lifting his metres gained into the mid-to-high 300s, and becoming a regular centre bounce midfielder. I'm not expecting All-Australian level yet, but clearly in the conversation as one of Hawthorn’s most important midfielders and one of the better young mids in the competition.

When you put it all together, 2025 showed us Josh Ward belongs at AFL level as a proper midfielder. 2026 looks like the season where we find out how high his ceiling actually is.

He’s already proven he can accumulate, he’s already proven he can perform in finals, he’s already earned internal trust, and he’s entering the exact career stage where midfielders usually explode.

Bookmark this post.

We, and the rest of the competition will be talking very differently about Josh Ward this time next year.

 

[Mojo]

I think we'll probably see the most improvement from the below 5, in no particular order.

In accordance with the rules I think Dear will have the best break-out season.

Dear
Mraz
Butler
Ward
Watson

 

[Tall poppy Syndrome]

Based off the voting most people probably know what I’m about to say, but I’d wager it’s based more on the eye test than proper analysis.

Here’s why I think Josh Ward is going to have a genuine breakout season in 2026.

You could make a reasonable argument that he already “broke out” in 2025, and to a degree that’s fair. But statistically and role-wise, I’d describe 2025 as the year he went from a solid contributor or promising youngster into what is now a genuinely good young AFL midfielder. To me, 2025 was the foundation year. 2026 is the year he’s primed to take the next step into that next tier.

Let’s start with what he actually did in 2025.

He played 25 games (not including finals) and averaged 20.6 disposals per game, split almost perfectly evenly between kicks (10.4) and handballs (10.2). He also averaged 3.2 marks, 3.6 tackles and 321.7 metres gained per game.

Those are quietly very strong numbers for a 22-year-old midfielder who wasn’t even Hawthorn’s primary on-baller.

What stands out most to me is the consistency of his ball-winning. Averaging over 20 disposals across a full season already puts him in solid midfield territory, and his ceiling is clearly higher than that. He hit a season-high 31 disposals in the semi-final against Adelaide, a sudden-death final against the minor premiers no less. That’s not junk-time accumulation - that’s winning the ball under serious heat in a big game. It shows us he can scale his output up when the stakes are highest.

Another underrated part of his game is his kick–handball balance, which often goes unnoticed when analyzing player performance. He was almost dead even at roughly 10 of each per game. That tells you he’s not just a one-dimensional link player on the outside, and he’s not just a pure inside handballer either. He can operate in tight, dish it out at stoppages, and also move the ball forward by foot. That kind of balance is usually a really good indicator for midfielders who later become more damaging and more complete players.

His finals performance only strengthened that case. That 31-disposal semi-final wasn’t just about volume, it was about composure and presence in a high-pressure environment. For young mids, those games are often the “oh, this guy’s real” moment, and Ward absolutely had one of those in September.

It’s also worth noting that Hawthorn internally clearly saw the same trajectory. He was named the club’s Most Improved Player for 2025, which lines up perfectly with what the numbers and the eye test were both showing. He went from being a depth midfielder or rotation piece, to someone the coaching staff clearly trusted as part of the core on-ball mix.

So why do I think 2026 is the real breakout year, rather than just "another small step"?

First, the age and games curve is right in the goldilocks zone. Ward will be 23 years old and roughly 90 games into his AFL career by the end of next season. Historically, that’s right in the sweet spot where good young midfielders make their biggest leap. He’s past the stage of just learning how to survive at AFL level, and into the stage where players start asserting themselves physically and tactically.

Second, the opportunity is going to be there. With no Worpel and Will Day missing time early in 2026 and Hawthorn already increasing Ward’s midfield responsibility throughout 2025, there’s a very real chance he becomes a more permanent centre bounce midfielder rather than a rotation option. More midfield minutes, more first-use possessions and more responsibility usually equals a jump in both volume and impact.

Third, his next obvious areas of growth are the exact ones that tend to lift a midfielder into the next tier. Right now he’s already good at winning the ball, good by hand, good on the spread and solid defensively. The two things that usually jump next for mids at his stage are contested possessions and metres gained. If he lifts those even moderately, his entire stat profile suddenly looks a lot more like a top-end midfielder rather than just a solid one.

For me, a genuine breakout season from Ward in 2026 looks something like this: pushing up into the 23–25 disposals per game range, getting closer to 4–5 tackles per game, lifting his metres gained into the mid-to-high 300s, and becoming a regular centre bounce midfielder. I'm not expecting All-Australian level yet, but clearly in the conversation as one of Hawthorn’s most important midfielders and one of the better young mids in the competition.

When you put it all together, 2025 showed us Josh Ward belongs at AFL level as a proper midfielder. 2026 looks like the season where we find out how high his ceiling actually is.

He’s already proven he can accumulate, he’s already proven he can perform in finals, he’s already earned internal trust, and he’s entering the exact career stage where midfielders usually explode.

Bookmark this post.

We, and the rest of the competition will be talking very differently about Josh Ward this time next year.

Great analysis. You’ve given me hope!

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Based off the voting most people probably know what I’m about to say, but I’d wager it’s based more on the eye test than proper analysis.

Here’s why I think Josh Ward is going to have a genuine breakout season in 2026.

You could make a reasonable argument that he already “broke out” in 2025, and to a degree that’s fair. But statistically and role-wise, I’d describe 2025 as the year he went from a solid contributor or promising youngster into what is now a genuinely good young AFL midfielder. To me, 2025 was the foundation year. 2026 is the year he’s primed to take the next step into that next tier.

Let’s start with what he actually did in 2025.

He played 25 games (not including finals) and averaged 20.6 disposals per game, split almost perfectly evenly between kicks (10.4) and handballs (10.2). He also averaged 3.2 marks, 3.6 tackles and 321.7 metres gained per game.

Those are quietly very strong numbers for a 22-year-old midfielder who wasn’t even Hawthorn’s primary on-baller.

What stands out most to me is the consistency of his ball-winning. Averaging over 20 disposals across a full season already puts him in solid midfield territory, and his ceiling is clearly higher than that. He hit a season-high 31 disposals in the semi-final against Adelaide, a sudden-death final against the minor premiers no less. That’s not junk-time accumulation - that’s winning the ball under serious heat in a big game. It shows us he can scale his output up when the stakes are highest.

Another underrated part of his game is his kick–handball balance, which often goes unnoticed when analyzing player performance. He was almost dead even at roughly 10 of each per game. That tells you he’s not just a one-dimensional link player on the outside, and he’s not just a pure inside handballer either. He can operate in tight, dish it out at stoppages, and also move the ball forward by foot. That kind of balance is usually a really good indicator for midfielders who later become more damaging and more complete players.

His finals performance only strengthened that case. That 31-disposal semi-final wasn’t just about volume, it was about composure and presence in a high-pressure environment. For young mids, those games are often the “oh, this guy’s real” moment, and Ward absolutely had one of those in September.

It’s also worth noting that Hawthorn internally clearly saw the same trajectory. He was named the club’s Most Improved Player for 2025, which lines up perfectly with what the numbers and the eye test were both showing. He went from being a depth midfielder or rotation piece, to someone the coaching staff clearly trusted as part of the core on-ball mix.

So why do I think 2026 is the real breakout year, rather than just "another small step"?

First, the age and games curve is right in the goldilocks zone. Ward will be 23 years old and roughly 90 games into his AFL career by the end of next season. Historically, that’s right in the sweet spot where good young midfielders make their biggest leap. He’s past the stage of just learning how to survive at AFL level, and into the stage where players start asserting themselves physically and tactically.

Second, the opportunity is going to be there. With no Worpel and Will Day missing time early in 2026 and Hawthorn already increasing Ward’s midfield responsibility throughout 2025, there’s a very real chance he becomes a more permanent centre bounce midfielder rather than a rotation option. More midfield minutes, more first-use possessions and more responsibility usually equals a jump in both volume and impact.

Third, his next obvious areas of growth are the exact ones that tend to lift a midfielder into the next tier. Right now he’s already good at winning the ball, good by hand, good on the spread and solid defensively. The two things that usually jump next for mids at his stage are contested possessions and metres gained. If he lifts those even moderately, his entire stat profile suddenly looks a lot more like a top-end midfielder rather than just a solid one.

For me, a genuine breakout season from Ward in 2026 looks something like this: pushing up into the 23–25 disposals per game range, getting closer to 4–5 tackles per game, lifting his metres gained into the mid-to-high 300s, and becoming a regular centre bounce midfielder. I'm not expecting All-Australian level yet, but clearly in the conversation as one of Hawthorn’s most important midfielders and one of the better young mids in the competition.

When you put it all together, 2025 showed us Josh Ward belongs at AFL level as a proper midfielder. 2026 looks like the season where we find out how high his ceiling actually is.

He’s already proven he can accumulate, he’s already proven he can perform in finals, he’s already earned internal trust, and he’s entering the exact career stage where midfielders usually explode.

Bookmark this post.

We, and the rest of the competition will be talking very differently about Josh Ward this time next year.

Spot on.

Ward is very capable to make the AA team in 2026. I know some may see it as a big call, but I’ve been all over watching him for a while. To me it isn’t far fetched at all.

When you look at him as a player as you say. He’s a proper inside/outside hybrid midfielder.

He has the inside game, growing as a strong inside player who can dish the ball out with clean hands, he’s very clean at ground level and one-touch, whilst being very creative and able to move well in traffic. Ontop of this, as an outside player, he is a supreme endurance athlete with good power and speed, he has a super damaging left foot, with an ability to use both feet. Defends well and runs both ways and accumulates.

His next step for me will be to further improve his overall game as it’ll come. I wanna see him add more ability to push forward, further accumulation, continued development inside. This will come with honing his strengths with greater opportunity and responsibility. You saw it last year, the group wants the ball in his hands.

He works as hard as any, probably one of the best trainers at the club. So I have no doubt in my mind he’ll reach great heights. Sky is the limit.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I obviously have chosen Ward, but think guys like Mackenzie or Butler could make huge strides. Very talented players in their own rights.

Mackenzie the smooth moving classy midfielder and Butler the manic yet classy mid-fwd.

MacDonald is the other big one who has trained all pre season as a full time midfielder. Likely to play that genuine mid-fwd role. Which is super exciting, has the class, speed and xfactor.

Defensively Mraz has impressed a lot, so if he gets an opportunity I’m sure he will take it with both hands. He’s immensely talented.

Forward you could probably say Lewis, he’s already broken out and been well regarded as a gun of the comp. Given the injury struggles it’s died down entirely, so a fit Lewis could genuinely kick 50+ and be the gun everyone knows he’s capable of.

Obviously there’s also guys like Dear who fit will have a big year, and Watson.

Good year to a hawthorn supporter.

 

[kazzooka]

Defensively Mraz has impressed a lot, so if he gets an opportunity I’m sure he will take it with both hands. He’s immensely talented.

I think the offseason cards have been moved for Mraz to get an opportunity this year. I don't think Battle, Barrass, Sicily and Scrimshaw will play every single game, and I think he's gone past Blank to be next in line (based on 2025 VFL Form in which Blank was first year back from nasty ACL, so if he's back at his best is in strong contention too).

But clearing out Frost, Serong and Jiath. Weddle moving to mid/wing/fwd is showing a lot of faith in him.

 

[JD1992]

Weddle if he can get a consistant position.
Up till now he is a throw anywhere on the field role in 2025.
If he can prodominately play the same role week in week out he can gain experience, exposure and become comfortable doing that.

If he is thrown around again - he will play well, but will not have consistancy.