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Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 2)

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M

Mudeo

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Apr 30, 2009
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Collingwood
Alright i will do it.
When you see the (V) next to a game it means that player is most likely to get votes here.

Pendlebury -
Has the easiest run home imo. But that could mean being rested.

Average on this board has him at around 17 votes.

The run home
Gold Coast - No past games. (V) Range is then 18-20

Essendon - Played a blinder earlier in the year against them. Might get a Hocking tag but didnt seem to effect him last time. (V) 19-23

Port - Rabble, just rabble is in Adelaide tho and Swan gets amongst it big time against Port. Possible 1-2 (V) 20-25

ST.K - Possible votes against these guys last time. But St.k will have something to prove and i can see Coll dropping a couple before the finals. No votes here.

BL - Without JB the BL will get a flogging here. Best possible result Pendles goes off. But like Pods i think Cloke will go nuts against the Lions and get the 3, 1-2 at best (V) 21-26

Freo - Got the 3 votes last year vs these guys at PS. Will give votes here. (V) 22-29

Geel - Dont believe he will get votes here because i think Geelong will win this one. They will wont to prove something heading into finals and maybe even a shot for top of the ladder.

So i believe that Pendles will be anywhere between 22-29 and that is being generous. But as i said in my last post there is a lot of variables involved here so it is hard to do.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Good write up vod ka knockers. I expect pendles to be rested in either the match this week, the port game or the freo match at subi.

He is still leading my votes though so I am hoping from a Brownlow perspective he plays but with finals ahead it may be good for him to have a rest.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Mine will seem quite a bit different to others here:

Swan, Dane 17
Murphy, Marc 16
Mitchell, Sam 15
Judd, Chris 15
Pendlebury, Scott 14
Boyd, Matthew 13
Priddis, Matt 12
Franklin, Lance 11
Fyfe, Nathan 11
Selwood, Joel 11
OKeefe, Ryan 10
DalSanto, Nick 10
Pavlich, Matthew 10
Cox, Dean 10
Goodes, Adam 10
Montagna, Leigh 10
Griffen, Ryan 10

Just out of interest, has anyone kept a comprehensive (3+ years) of how they have dished out votes in the past and how this compares to how they eventually poll?
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

premiers06 said:
Good write up vod ka knockers. I expect pendles to be rested in either the match this week, the port game or the freo match at subi.

He is still leading my votes though so I am hoping from a Brownlow perspective he plays but with finals ahead it may be good for him to have a rest.
Click to expand...

Will do one for Judd, Murphy and Priddis as well if other people would like.
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Vod Ka Nockers said:
Will do one for Judd, Murphy and Priddis as well if other people would like.
Click to expand...

Yes please! Especially interested to get your thoughts on Priddis. Looks like a fairly soft run home so if he holds up his form his stocks could rise.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Round 17 Votes
ESS v ADEL
3. A.Monfries
2. S.Thompson
1. D.Zaharakis

CARL v COLL
3. S.Pendlebury
2. D.Thomas
1. C.Judd

RICH v GC
3. G.Ablett
2. J.Brennan
1. M.Rischitelli


STK v WC
3. L.Montagna
2. B.Goddard
1. D.Cox

MELB v PORT
3. R.Peterd
2. C.Sylvia
1. S.Martin

FREM v SYD
3. N.Fyfe
2. N.Lower
1. J.McVeigh

BRIS v GEEL
3. J.Podsiadly
2. J.Bartel
1. T.Rockliffe

NM v WB
3. J.Ziebell
2. D.Petrie
1. D.Wells


Good to see the discussion picking up in here! Good work:thumbsu:
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[FONT=&quot]Overall Leaderboard and Team Leaders after Round 17
20 - M.Murphy[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]18 – C.Judd, [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]17 - S.Mitchell[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]16 – G.Ablett, S.Pendlebury[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]15 – B.Moloney, D.Thomas[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]14 – M.Boyd, R.O’Keefe, M.Priddis
13 – D.Swan, N.Fyfe
12 - J.Watson, R.Griffin, B.Goddard, D.Cox
11 - J.Bolton, J.Selwood, L.Franklin, D.Martin,[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]10 - A.Goodes, A.Swallow, M,Pavlich, L.Hodge, P.Chapman, D.Wells, S.Thompson
9 - T.Goldstein, N.Dal Santo, J.Bartel

Team Leaders
Adelaide: S.Thompson (10)
Brisbane: S.Black (8)
Carlton: M.Murphy (20)
Collingwood: S.Pendlebury (16)
Essendon: J.Watson (12)
Fremantle: N.Fyfe (13)
Geelong: J.Selwood (11)
Gold Coast: G.Ablett (16)
Hawthorn: S.Mitchell (17)
Melbourne: B.Moloney (15)
North Melbourne: A.Swallow (10) + D.Wells (10)
Port Adelaide: T.Chaplin (4)
Richmond: D.Martin (11)
St Kilda: B.Goddard (12)
Sydney: R.O’Keefe (14)
Western Bulldogs: M.Boyd (14)
West Coast: M.Priddis (14)[/FONT]
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Judd and Murphy

Thought i would do these 2 together as they have the same run home. Carlton will be looking to push for the top 4 so i expect they wont rest these 2 unless injured. Looking at their run home it is quite soft as well.

Judd is a bit iffy this year, after winning it last year there is that rule that is hard to ignore, that rule is umpires mark harsher on the winner of the medal the year before. But it is hard to ignore the fact they love him. So its a bit of a grey area on what he could be on. But average on this board is around 19 so thats the base. He could poll in every game from here on in from what we see are average games.

Murphy finally had a decent pre-season and well done to the people who had money on him since the start. From memory paying around $81. Personally i think he is a soft front runner but when giving out votes you have to look from the eyes of an umpire. Most people have him leading at this stage so we will give him a base of 22.

The Run Home

Essendon - Ok so no Watson for the Bombers takes a vote getter out of the equation and Hocking out as well means no tagger, means head to head midfield battles for these 2 or very poor tagging efforts. Question is who wins this game.

Judd - (V) 1-2 here i believe Judd as Judd only needs 1 spurt through the game to justify votes and its a big game. 20-21
Murphy - (V) maximum 1 here. 23

Norf
Both had off games last year at roughly the same round. Levi and Rawlings might tag here. No votes.

Judd - 20-21
Murphy - 23

Melbourne
Both had good games earlier in the year but you would expect Melbourne to be fired up after their last encounter. McKenzie to run with a player around stoppages.

Judd - 31 possies last time they played. McKenzie to stop influence.
Murphy - 31 possies and a goal last time they played. (V) 24-27

Freo
At PS. Played there last year Judd got the 1.
Freo win over there. Crowley and De Boer taggers here.

Judd - Tagged but will snag the 1. (V) 22
Murphy - Believe he will be tagged out of the game.

Hawthorn
Hawthorn will win here.
All votes go to Hawthorn players here.

St.K
Carlton will win here will need the win to get into top 4.

Judd - (V) will play a big part. 23-25
Murphy - (V) 24-26.

People have different opinions on games? Just think Carlton have run out of form. So it will be a bit harder for Carlton players to poll votes. A few results wont go there way.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Vod Ka, good write ups but I think they are pointless to an extent as there are way too many variables, pretty much anything can happen. I think looking at previous matches can be beneficial (Pendlebury 3 BOG's in his past 3 vs Essendon, inclined to think he will poll against them in round 19) but I wouldn't use this system as a tool for betting on the Brownlow...
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

danielnajdek said:
Pendles playing this week against GC:thumbsu: Should have a massive game that's if he doesn't get subbed of course.
Click to expand...

I would be wary of backing Pendles atm. He smashed his shoulder last week, and this game means nothing to the Pies.
If you are looking for a great multi take Cloke for Coleman into Murphy/Judd into the pies to win the flag.

Murphy multi is 50s and Juddy is 30s.

I got Cloke last week at 9s for Coleman. He is even a sneaky hope to be leading the coleman after this round. Currently still 5 bucks. Big Big overs
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Frankie23 said:
Vod Ka, good write ups but I think they are pointless to an extent as there are way too many variables, pretty much anything can happen. I think looking at previous matches can be beneficial (Pendlebury 3 BOG's in his past 3 vs Essendon, inclined to think he will poll against them in round 19) but I wouldn't use this system as a tool for betting on the Brownlow...
Click to expand...

Yeah I have stated that, it's mostly just to spark some discussion
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Brownlow is the one betting market where you can sort of bet on things ''after the event''. I think there are good enough odds around without the need to try and be predicting who is going to get votes in future games.

Just wait and see what happens is my advice.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Dr Awkward said:
Brownlow is the one betting market where you can sort of bet on things ''after the event''. I think there are good enough odds around without the need to try and be predicting who is going to get votes in future games.

Just wait and see what happens is my advice.
Click to expand...

I agree to an extent but if you see something as value now you should probably take it. Like you said you dont know what happens from here on in. What if you thought Priddis was only 4 off the lead? Wouldn't you be better off taking the $30+ now before he gets another BOG and comes into close to single figures? I see a few people here have already backed him...

For what its worth I dont think he is the Brownlow type but he is certainly a better option than taking Swan at $11. That price astounds me, I dont have him in the top 15...Would be interested to see what everyone else has him on. I saw someone had him on 17? I just dont see how that is possible. I don't think he's been anywhere near as good as he was last year. If he didnt win it then I dont think he'll ever even get close again.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

KardiniaPark said:
Also what are your thoughts on Port Adelaide?
Click to expand...

One of the toughest to pick this year IMO - which is often the case with bottom sides without a stand-out player.

I've currently got five players on 3 votes for them:

- J. Westhoff
- T. Chaplin
- T. Boak
- J. Schulz
- H. Hartlett
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

KardiniaPark said:
I agree to an extent but if you see something as value now you should probably take it. Like you said you dont know what happens from here on in. What if you thought Priddis was only 4 off the lead? Wouldn't you be better off taking the $30+ now before he gets another BOG and comes into close to single figures? I see a few people here have already backed him...
Click to expand...
Yeah I didn't mean don't bet now, I meant I don't think there is much value in literally trying to predict who will poll in what games.

I guess if players have a soft draw coming up then that is something to take into account.

I don't have anyone from Port on more than 4 votes, I have barely thought about them at all- I doubt I'll be backing a favourite in that market.
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

KardiniaPark said:
I agree to an extent but if you see something as value now you should probably take it. Like you said you dont know what happens from here on in. What if you thought Priddis was only 4 off the lead? Wouldn't you be better off taking the $30+ now before he gets another BOG and comes into close to single figures? I see a few people here have already backed him...

For what its worth I dont think he is the Brownlow type but he is certainly a better option than taking Swan at $11. That price astounds me, I dont have him in the top 15...Would be interested to see what everyone else has him on. I saw someone had him on 17? I just dont see how that is possible. I don't think he's been anywhere near as good as he was last year. If he didnt win it then I dont think he'll ever even get close again.
Click to expand...

I have the following tiers for the medal winner.

Judd/Murph/Pendles
Boyd/Priddis
Ablett/Swan

Always look into value wherever possible. Priddis is definetly an outsider, but its always nice to cover (especially at $34). The top 3 Judd/Murph/Pendles are and should be current leaders, thus if you weight your bets accordingly you should not be at risk of losing any funds invested.

Swan did have a strong start to the season, but ever since he's had that quad niggle - doesnt seem to have the same impact (running style looks so unco). I have him on 14. I've overpolled Swan and underpolled Pendles to see how far apart they are post Rnd24. This will help give me a bit of confidence in adding Pendles in teamvotes.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

KardiniaPark said:
I've just been looking through the votes and I already have 6 locks, Its obvious who they would be so I wont post as I know there is some paranoia around :p Does 6 seem high to you?

Also what are your thoughts on Port Adelaide?
Click to expand...

I wouldn't say their is 6 locks, I would only say their is one absolute lock at this stage(maybe 2).

Would say their are a few teams who the winner is most likely decided however.

On port I have

Chaplin-4
boak,schulz,westhoff-3
hartlett-2

I don't think I'll be betting on them unless one of them is ridiculous odds and ill put them in 1-2 of my multis.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

premiers06 said:
I wouldn't say their is 6 locks, I would only say their is one absolute lock at this stage(maybe 2).

Would say their are a few teams who the winner is most likely decided however.

On port I have

Chaplin-4
boak,schulz,westhoff-3
hartlett-2

I don't think I'll be betting on them unless one of them is ridiculous odds and ill put them in 1-2 of my multis.
Click to expand...

I just had some on Westhoff @$34. Seemed silly odds to me.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

Also I'll put up my leaderboard just to have another perspective on here.

20-pendlebury
19-murphy,judd
17-mitchell
16-moloney,priddis
14-thomas, o'keefe, boyd
13-swan, selwood
12-franklin, watson, dal santo, fyfe
11- martin, ablett, griffen, embley, thompson, bolton
10- cox, swallow, goodes, goddard, wells, pavlich
 

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Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 2)

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