Analysis Came good after written off

[SJ]

Impossible to undersell that post. Brilliant work SJ and 100% accurate. I'm not sure you could find more convincing evidence for putting a player in one position and simply leaving them there. Sadly, the club seems to have a great aversion to it now, and be far more impatient, only three years later.

Just looks at especially the contested marks - coaches would chew off body parts for a key forward that takes nearly 4 contested marks per game. There was a YouTube clip up of Hawkins performance from that match, but I can't seem to locate it at the moment. He marked pretty much everything and looked better every minute he was out there.

The other interesting punt the club took that week was to promote Trent West back to senior level for his first game of the season. Like Hawkins, they left him there. He played every game for the rest of the season alongside Ottens (except versus Adelaide in Round 21), and 2 months later we were premiers. Also, that Ottens/West combination achieved a rare distiction - that was the last time a Geelong ruck combination won the hitouts in a final (achieved in all three games).

Indeed. That was another amazing turnaround really. Mid-2011 it looked as though West was done at Geelong, after playing only 11 out of 137 matches since being drafted in 2005.

Out of the blue, he then played 41 of the next 44 games between Round 17 2011 and Round 11 2013 (many of which as a sole ruckman).

And then it was back to where it all started, with West playing two of the final 14 matches of 2013 before being traded to Brisbane.

 

[Partridge]

Indeed. That was another amazing turnaround really. Mid-2011 it looked as though West was done at Geelong, after playing only 11 out of 137 matches since being drafted in 2005.

Out of the blue, he then played 41 of the next 44 games between Round 17 2011 and Round 11 2013 (many of which as a sole ruckman).

And then it was back to where it all started, with West playing two of the final 14 matches of 2013 before being traded to Brisbane.

And in those games, he averaged a far from disgraceful 22.7 hitouts a game, alongside 9.9 disposals and 2.3 tackles. Yet there was mostly unbridled joy when he was moved on.

It's fairly obvious that personal bias and prejudice trump objective reality on this board, but it's been rarely so stark and obvious as with West. Especially in light of how our ruck stocks have fared since. We're left bemoaning the lack of durability of McIntosh (or Simpson or Vardy), or the lack of output of Simpson (or Vardy or Blicavs or Walker), yet most were ecstatic to get rid of the one guy who provided both. Most revealing.

 

[you pick one]

And in those games, he averaged a far from disgraceful 22.7 hitouts a game, alongside 9.9 disposals and 2.3 tackles. Yet there was mostly unbridled joy when he was moved on.

It's fairly obvious that personal bias and prejudice trump objective reality on this board, but it's been rarely so stark and obvious as with West. Especially in light of how our ruck stocks have fared since. We're left bemoaning the lack of durability of McIntosh (or Simpson or Vardy), or the lack of output of Simpson (or Vardy or Blicavs or Walker), yet most were ecstatic to get rid of the one guy who provided both. Most revealing.

Do we need to put up with this trip every time some one has a view of a players ability not in line with your own,West was an average football and average second ruckman at best,no great loss you can't keep every one and if my memory serves me correctly McIntosh and Simpson handed him and Leuenberger their collective arses on a plate early on in the year.

 

[Partridge]

Do we need to put up with this trip every time some one has a view of a players ability not in line with your own,West was an average football and average second ruckman at best,no great loss you can't keep every one and if my memory serves me correctly McIntosh and Simpson handed him and Leuenberger their collective arses on a plate early on in the year.

It depends. Do we need to put up with you bitching and moaning every time someone disagrees with you? It appears we do.

West may have been no great loss. However this 'average second ruckman' would be pretty useful right now, as we have two number one ruckmen who are rarely fit and may not be again, and a host of 'almost ruckmen' who do or will get killed by superior opposition. In that instance I'd go with the 'average second ruckman' every time.

More important than any personal viewpoint, the data strongly support that contention.

 

[fpm84]

For the millionth time on this board, I will state my opinion that we would have beaten Fremantle in the 2013 qualifying final if we went with a Podsiadly/Vardy forward line and a West/Blicavs ruck combination instead of a Podsiadly/Walker forward line and a Vardy/Blicavs ruck combination.

I will stand by this opinion forever.

 

[SJ]

For the millionth time on this board, I will state my opinion that we would have beaten Fremantle in the 2013 qualifying final if we went with a Podsiadly/Vardy forward line and a West/Blicavs ruck combination instead of a Podsiadly/Walker forward line and a Vardy/Blicavs ruck combination.

I will stand by this opinion forever.

Probably.

Chapman starting on field might have helped too.

 

[fpm84]

Probably.

Chapman starting on field might have helped too.

Yep. Two match committee decisions that could/would have been the difference in a game that went down to the wire.

 

[Cattery]

For the millionth time on this board, I will state my opinion that we would have beaten Fremantle in the 2013 qualifying final if we went with a Podsiadly/Vardy forward line and a West/Blicavs ruck combination instead of a Podsiadly/Walker forward line and a Vardy/Blicavs ruck combination.

I will stand by this opinion forever.

Now there's someone not afraid to swim against the tide of popular opinion, afraid you won't get many kudos though for having a good word to say about West unfortunately.

 

[you pick one]

It depends. Do we need to put up with you bitching and moaning every time someone disagrees with you? It appears we do.

West may have been no great loss. However this 'average second ruckman' would be pretty useful right now, as we have two number one ruckmen who are rarely fit and may not be again, and a host of 'almost ruckmen' who do or will get killed by superior opposition. In that instance I'd go with the 'average second ruckman' every time.

More important than any personal viewpoint, the data strongly support that contention.

And West was shown the door,pretty strong argument my way I'd have thought,and no one could have predicted Vardy's ACL preseason,Simpsons back is another story no surprise there.

 

[goyoucatters]

Wonder if this thread will 'come good' after being written off (by me, anyway) as yet another example of a thread derailed by a descent into posturing about decisions made by the GFC in times past?

Somehow I doubt it.

 

[catempire]

<snip>

I 100% agree that a turning point for Hawkins was his return to the forward line full time. However I recall the genesis of his move to the ruck somewhat differently (although I can't find an article in Google archives to support it) in that the club was so disillusioned with his form that they threw him into the ruck to try to 'get his hands on the ball' and give him some confidence. I recall an article at some point during the experiment where Hawkins was talking positively of the move, saying that he had thrived given the run on the ball and was hoping he could translate this back to good form at full forward (again, I can't find the article online).

FWIW, I also don't think there was any intention to keep Hawkins as a ruck-forward indefinitely. My recollection was it was transparently a move made to improve his confidence/form before a move back to where he was clearly suited better.

 

[catempire]

Do we need to put up with this trip every time some one has a view of a players ability not in line with your own,West was an average football and average second ruckman at best,no great loss you can't keep every one and if my memory serves me correctly McIntosh and Simpson handed him and Leuenberger their collective arses on a plate early on in the year.

YPO, surely you've realised by now that when it comes to this topic, if you disagree with Partridge it's personal bias and prejudice. It's actually not possible to hold a reasonable and contrary view! Just forget it!

 

[FredLeDeux]

YPO, surely you've realised by now that when it comes to this topic, if you disagree with Partridge it's personal bias and prejudice. It's actually not possible to hold a reasonable and contrary view! Just forget it!

The poem said it all

I love a .... land of sweeping generalisations.... Dorothea Mackellar

 

[goyoucatters]

I 100% agree that a turning point for Hawkins was his return to the forward line full time. However I recall the genesis of his move to the ruck somewhat differently (although I can't find an article in Google archives to support it) in that the club was so disillusioned with his form that they threw him into the ruck to try to 'get his hands on the ball' and give him some confidence.

Straight from the Robert Walls playbook.

Strange thing is that this time it seems to have actually worked.

 

[you pick one]

YPO, surely you've realised by now that when it comes to this topic, if you disagree with Partridge it's personal bias and prejudice. It's actually not possible to hold a reasonable and contrary view! Just forget it!

It's better I guess than the Chris Scott plays favourites line,I guess it's only a matter of time before that old chestnut gets another run.

 

[catempire]

It's better I guess than the Chris Scott plays favourites line,I guess it's only a matter of time before that old chestnut gets another run.

Now you just believe the match committee is infallible, don't you? DON'T YOU?!?

 

[Cattery]

YPO, surely you've realised by now that when it comes to this topic, if you disagree with Partridge it's personal bias and prejudice. It's actually not possible to hold a reasonable and contrary view! Just forget it!

Without wanting to put words in Partridge's mouth I suspect he would say there weren't many "reasonable" contrary views when it came to West, he was simply written off as a spud and that was the end of it, and him.

But as you say, time to forget it and move on. [Fat chance]

 

[geelong_boy]

Indeed. That was another amazing turnaround really. Mid-2011 it looked as though West was done at Geelong, after playing only 11 out of 137 matches since being drafted in 2005.

Out of the blue, he then played 41 of the next 44 games between Round 17 2011 and Round 11 2013 (many of which as a sole ruckman).

And then it was back to where it all started, with West playing two of the final 14 matches of 2013 before being traded to Brisbane.

It was also around mid-2011 - ie. before West was in the team - that Chris Scott appeared On The Couch and strongly backed West as a possible contributor for the rest of 2011 after Gerard Healy wrote him off.

 

[catempire]

Without wanting to put words in Partridge's mouth I suspect he would say there weren't many "reasonable" contrary views when it came to West, he was simply written off as a spud and that was the end of it, and him.

But as you say, time to forget it and move on. [Fat chance]

There must have been hundreds of hours of collective analysis put into the debate at the time. To write it off as merely "bias", "prejudice" or allegations of spuddery (and nothing more), is wilfully misrepresenting things.

Moving on now...

 

[Partridge]

And West was shown the door,pretty strong argument my way I'd have thought,and no one could have predicted Vardy's ACL preseason,Simpsons back is another story no surprise there.

Totally agree. Vardy's knee no one could have predicted. But McIntosh and Simpson are a different matter.

 

[Partridge]

YPO, surely you've realised by now that when it comes to this topic, if you disagree with Partridge it's personal bias and prejudice. It's actually not possible to hold a reasonable and contrary view! Just forget it!

There's a very simple way to disprove it CE - are there stats that support the performances of our rucks in 2014 versus earlier season when West was there? If there are, that argument has merit.

Do completely impartial statistics count in this discussion, or are they coloured by 'personal bias' too?

 

[Partridge]

Without wanting to put words in Partridge's mouth I suspect he would say there weren't many "reasonable" contrary views when it came to West, he was simply written off as a spud and that was the end of it, and him.

But as you say, time to forget it and move on. [Fat chance]

You might as well - everyone else does.

Fascinating how many mindreaders there are around here isn't it?

 

[catempire]

There's a very simple way to disprove it CE - are there stats that support the performances of our rucks in 2014 versus earlier season when West was there? If there are, that argument has merit.

In the post-Ottens era:

Average difference between Geelong and opposition hitouts:

2012: -5.4 (ranked 14th) - West (21 games), Stephenson (8), Simpson (2)
2013: -7.2 (ranked 16th) - Simpson (6), West (13), Vardy (10), Blicavs (22)
2014: +0.1 (ranked 10th) - Simpson (13), McIntosh (19), Blicavs (23)

I'm not sure what "that argument" is, but I know that you will agree that these stats tend to indicate things took a turn for the better in 2014.

 

[Partridge]

In the post-Ottens era:

Average difference between Geelong and opposition hitouts:

2012: -5.4 (ranked 14th) - West (21 games), Stephenson (8), Simpson (2)
2013: -7.2 (ranked 16th) - Simpson (6), West (13), Vardy (10), Blicavs (22)
2014: +0.1 (ranked 10th) - Simpson (13), McIntosh (19), Blicavs (23)

I'm not sure what "that argument" is, but I know that you will agree that these stats tend to indicate things took a turn for the better in 2014.

They do. Do they include finals or just home and away?

I'd argue every ruckman we have has to win hitouts (mainly), get some of the ball around the ground (realistically they aren't going to get 20 touches a game), and hopefully stay injury free and be out there regularly. The problem is we have one ruckman who is very good at winning hitouts in Simpson; but he doesn't get out there often and is very fragile physically. McIntosh is probably the most accomplished all around - he wins hitouts, and gets good numbers around the ground, but he's also fragile and looked terrible at the tail end of last year. The bottom line is we don't have any ruckmen who satisfy all three criteria. Not yet anyway.

 

[catempire]

They do. Do they include finals or just home and away?

I'd argue every ruckman we have has to win hitouts (mainly), get some of the ball around the ground (realistically they aren't going to get 20 touches a game), and hopefully stay injury free and be out there regularly. The problem is we have one ruckman who is very good at winning hitouts in Simpson; but he doesn't get out there often and is very fragile physically. McIntosh is probably the most accomplished all around - he wins hitouts, and gets good numbers around the ground, but he's also fragile and looked terrible at the tail end of last year. The bottom line is we don't have any ruckmen who satisfy all three criteria. Not yet anyway.

Finals included.

Barring some medical miracles, we probably won't have a ruckman in 2015 that satisfies all of the criteria either. The hope is that the combination of players we will have will provide what we need. Hopefully then in 2016 we can turn over a new leaf.