Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[WWSD]

Port Adelaide have more existing talent on their list for the young players to slot into. In two years, most of your senior guys will be retired.

Some of the current senior players if not most them are well past their best anyway giving very little to no output at all. There’s still some decent players around the age of 25-29. No one knows what type of players Hawthorn will pick in this years draft, but having pick 3 and 19 is a very good starting point if you go through a rebuild path. I mean Hawthorn cop criticism for not going the draft over the years, but they finally did that last year and surprise surprise Day who was a first round pick has been the Hawks most promising player this year. We will see what happens with this years draft and what strategy the Hawks adopt.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Ok mate-

You have been average for 5 years and your list might look completely different in another 5 years but it will still probably be toilet because unlike most clubs you have not got young players who are any good. "but but but Will Day's shown a bit! DAYPEDO! DAYPEDO!". No he's shown as much about any other first year player.

10 years maybe a bit "pessimistic" as they say but then Hawthorn Football Club is aka Hawthorn Retirement Home so there's a fair chance you'll still at least some of your potatos running around. They sure do stick around in yellow and brown!

No it’s got nothing to do with our list at the moment, it’s the fact that projecting 10 years is impossible to do and is literally guess work. Anyone ‘predicting’ 10 years at the bottom is simply hoping.

 

[boncer34]

No it’s got nothing to do with our list at the moment, it’s the fact that projecting 10 years is impossible to do and is literally guess work. Anyone ‘predicting’ 10 years at the bottom is simply hoping.

Anyone making confident predictions a year in advanced is brave.

 

[Pessimistic]

So what odds do I get that the Hawks wont have a premiership with the year 202X.
Greedy I know

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Port Adelaide have more existing talent on their list for the young players to slot into. In two years, most of your senior guys will be retired.

That's easy to say (of Port Adelaide) in retrospect when Hawthorn are at their lowest ebb in more than a decade and Port at their highest. However, in the 13 years since Port made the GF, they have only finished higher than Hawthorn once. Before their 2018 draft haul, they lost the last 4 games of the year, missed finals and were being widely criticised for their recruitment of mature players and their need for a clean out (ala Hawthorn right now).

The truth is, it can turn around quickly (not only Port but Richmond, Bulldogs and others came from nowhere).

The counterpoint of course is that it is uncommon (and unlikely) for the turnaround to come that quickly, the 2018 draft was exceptional (the 2020 draft is very compromised) and Port haven't achieved anything of note yet. We also do indeed have an older list demographic than Port ever did.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Youngest v oldest - most recent

Year	Round	Young team	Age	Result	Margin	Old team	Age
2020	8	Syd	24.36	W	7	Haw	26.78
2019	23	W.B.	23.85	W	34	Adel	27.14
2019	8	Carl	23.74	L	19	Coll	26.15
2018	19	Frem	23.53	L	59	Haw	26.71
2017	19	Bris	22.95	L	68	W.C.	26.25
2017	8	Bris	23.73	L	38	Haw	26.82
2015	12	GWS	22.50	L	56	N.M.	27.23
2014	17	GWS	21.94	L	76	Frem	26.50
2013	13	P.A.	24.08	W	18	Syd	26.35
2013	8	GWS	21.94	L	83	Haw	26.67
2013	1	GWS	21.60	L	30	Syd	27.11
2011	20	G.C.	22.52	L	150	Geel	27.33
2011	10	G.C.	22.48	L	66	Geel	26.77
2010	22	W.C.	22.56	L	55	Geel	26.47
2010	11	W.C.	23.01	L	25	Geel	26.04
2010	2	Rich	22.98	L	72	W.B.	26.39
2009	2	Haw	22.74	L	38	Syd	26.05
2008	18	Carl	23.19	L	8	Adel	25.67

 

[boncer34]

So what odds do I get that the Hawks wont have a premiership with the year 202X.
Greedy I know

I'd say 2-1

 

[HairyO]

God you are delusional. Do you really expect a one draft turnaround with your list? It. Is. Cooked. Top to tail. Needs a full clean out. Start again from scratch.

Who has said 1 draft?

You change the goal posts constantly.

My point is a basic one. Here it is:
People who claim "Team X will be rubbish for 10 years" are simpletons who have zero clue.

Mostly because their team has been so atrocious for such a long time they just assume that every other club is probably the same - because that way its not really about their club just being shit, because all clubs go through it.

But the reality is most clubs have differing periods of issues and work their way through them. Some just lost their way and forgot how football clubs work.

 

[Blue1980]

I think everyone (except maybe Clarko) can see things will get worse before they get better for hawthorn, for at least 2021 and probably 2022, and yes this holds even if they beat us this week.

Thing is even if they begin nailing some young talent next couple of drafts, their unlikely to be changing the course of games in their first season without good experienced players around (which there will be even less of in 21-22)

 

[Ron The Bear]

Clarko just waffled shit on 360 and bamboozled Robbo.

 

[HairyO]

Clarko just waffled sh*t on 360 and bamboozled Robbo.

Is that really all that hard though?

 

[Ron The Bear]

Is that really all that hard though?

No. The point was more that Clarko answered a couple of questions, then put up the shutters.

 

[HeHateMe]

Clarko just waffled sh*t on 360 and bamboozled Robbo.

Robbo seems to be having a real tough time lately.

You see his mind working overdrive each week. Yes.no.yes.no.yes.no

Not watching right now what did clarko say?
Doubt it would have been anything worthwhile he has been literally been deflecting for a few weeks now.

 

[lordo2000]

Have been talking to someone in the media

 

[Scotland]

This idea that it takes up to a decade to essentially turnover a playing list and become competitive again is so bizarre. It’s like everyone thinks every club is starting with the worst list possible like a Richmond or Carlton, and even then both clubs managed to start winning some games 5 years in. I’d argue that both of them came from some absolutely abysmal drafting and cultural issues, neither of which I think apply to Hawthorn.

Sure if they end up in a bit of a rebuild it may take a bit of time and see far more losses than usual for a bit but they’ve still got some good players in their primes who provide much needed leadership and talent. Make a few smart picks and top up elsewhere and there nothing to say a club can’t quickly climb the ladder again. It happens all the time.

If you are starting from scratch a la GC/GWS then you need 4-5 years. GWS took 4 years to get to a 50-50 record, GC peaked at 10-12 in their fourth season when Ablett got injured.

For any normal team with a list profile of average age 24-27, total games played 2000-2500+ you don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater. You can go backwards to go forwards, but you don't need to turn a team like Hawthorn now, North 2016, us 2017 etc. into a first/second year GWS in order to succeed. All that guarantees is you will definitely go backwards to maybe go forwards.

Hawthorn's 2016 SF side had 14 players 27 or under. A couple have since retired, Hill was traded and a few others were cut. Pretty standard for any team after 4 years. But you could theoretically have Frawley, McEvoy, Smith, Stratton, Breust, Gunston, Shiels, Sicily as the oldest 8 players in the side (now 25-32) and then a bunch of dudes now 19/20-22/23. Instead Sicily who was the youngest in 2016 was still the 7th youngest in Round 7 (afltables not updated for Round 8). Gave up a lot for Wingard and O'Meara and also added Mitchell for a good deal for both parties. Minchington, Frost, Scully, Patton (inj), Henderson is iffy. Skews the list profile upwards without adding a lot of talent.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Not watching right now what did clarko say?

I kinda tuned out after awhile but he was asked a question about Hawthorn's style of play and went off on a long-winded tangent that covered West Coast and Richmond. He was clearly filling in time and actually said at one stage he was happy not to do media at all. Robbo sat through it thinking "Better not interrupt the genius".

 

[Pessimistic]

Crazy clarko lookingmore and more like sheedy in his last few years.
Let’s hope for hawks supporters the end result is not the same for the club (no finals wins for about 15 years

‘so who’s Hird?

 

[Pessimistic]

If you are starting from scratch a la GC/GWS then you need 4-5 years. GWS took 4 years to get to a 50-50 record, GC peaked at 10-12 in their fourth season when Ablett got injured.

For any normal team with a list profile of average age 24-27, total games played 2000-2500+ you don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater. You can go backwards to go forwards, but you don't need to turn a team like Hawthorn now, North 2016, us 2017 etc. into a first/second year GWS in order to succeed. All that guarantees is you will definitely go backwards to maybe go forwards.

Hawthorn's 2016 SF side had 14 players 27 or under. A couple have since retired, Hill was traded and a few others were cut. Pretty standard for any team after 4 years. But you could theoretically have Frawley, McEvoy, Smith, Stratton, Breust, Gunston, Shiels, Sicily as the oldest 8 players in the side (now 25-32) and then a bunch of dudes now 19/20-22/23. Instead Sicily who was the youngest in 2016 was still the 7th youngest in Round 7 (afltables not updated for Round 8). Gave up a lot for Wingard and O'Meara and also added Mitchell for a good deal for both parties. Minchington, Frost, Scully, Patton (inj), Henderson is iffy. Skews the list profile upwards without adding a lot of talent.

if a team has two or more consecutive bad years (playing the kids) the stats show that that team won’t win a flag for at least seven years. So it can easily be a decade long process. Unless you count just making finals and then dropping off. It that’s to be the case, why bother?

 

[Scotland]

if a team has two or more consecutive bad years (playing the kids) the stats show that that team won’t win a flag for at least seven years. So it can easily be a decade long process. Unless you count just making finals and then dropping off. It that’s to be the case, why bother?

WC, Rich, WB, Haw have all been garbage this century. What stats are you talking about?

 

[Pessimistic]

WC, Rich, WB, Haw have all been garbage this century. What stats are you talking about?

percentage is a good indicator of crapness Those clubs only really had one bad year in a row recently. One year to replenish a list isn’t a bad bounce back, just don’t allow it to extend much more. it’s poison

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Or:

IN: O'Meara, Wingard
OUT: Josh Williams (delisted), Hunter Clarke (Saints), Liam Ryan (WCE), Jordan Clark (Geelong), Bailey Williams (WCE)

Would those players be in the Hawks best 22 and provide more to the side than O'Meara and Wingard?

Not sure how you can just exclude Hill and Burton out of the equation.

But anyway, over those same years look at what Hawthorn drafted -

Harry Morrison - pick 74

Mitch Lewis - pick 76

James Worpel - pick 45

Dylan Moore - pick 67

We don’t know which players Hawthorn would’ve taken with those picks but based on their ability to find overs on late picks, I think it’s fair to say they’d draft well with higher picks.

Add in the value of Hill and Burton and I think they’ve been totally dudded with these trades.

 

[Pessimistic]

Not sure how you can just exclude Hill and Burton out of the equation.

But anyway, over those same years look at what Hawthorn drafted -

Harry Morrison - pick 74

Mitch Lewis - pick 76

James Worpel - pick 45

Dylan Moore - pick 67

We don’t know which players Hawthorn would’ve taken with those picks but based on their ability to find overs on late picks, I think it’s fair to say they’d draft well with higher picks.

Add in the value of Hill and Burton and I think they’ve been totally dudded with these trades.

Say what you like about the trades on their own, the overall picture is quite reasonable, as you've suggested

The recruiting as a whole (and remember scarce early picks) is commendable, especially as our list was unbalanced due to almost the entire midfield leaving or retiring in a short period

 

[Ron The Bear]

percentage is a good indicator of crapness Those clubs only really had one bad year in a row recently. One year to replenish a list isn’t a bad bounce back, just don’t allow it to extend much more. it’s poison

Richmond had consecutive years under 75% (2009-10), which is in the bottom 12%.

St.Kilda (2000-01) got to the top in a similar timeframe.

Brisbane's coming off four such years in a row (2014-17), and who's to say they can't win one?

The limiting factor is probably not striking draft gold enough times before pushing back up the ladder. The Hawks of the late 90's might be a good comparison.

Diff = team's h&a age difference from AFL average:

Year	Ladder	Diff
1994	6th	+0.83
1995	15th	+0.78
1996	8th	+1.80
1997	15th	+0.45
1998	13th	-0.36
1999	9th	-0.41
2000	8th	+0.32
2001	6th	-0.46
2002	10th	-0.18
2003	9th	-0.11
2004	15th	+0.19
2005	14th	-0.96
2006	11th	-0.96
2007	5th	-0.87

After 1996 the Hawks quickly dropped back under parity, then rose to mid-table without having the depth to push further. They regrouped again after 2004 and of course hit the motherlode at the draft.

Year	Ladder	Diff
2016	3rd	+1.32
2017	12th	+1.05
2018	4th	+1.07
2019	9th	+1.25
2020	15th	+1.87

Over the last four years they've attempted a refurb, but have ended up in a similar spot to 1996. Don Scott seems to be fired up again...

 

[Pessimistic]

Yep. I took % of 75 or 80 to indicate there was a hard rebuild. Of course Geelong have never dropped below 80% and Collingwood just one year.

Hawthorn seemed to dive in 2004 but it was just one year below 80%. Probably shouldn't have qualified for priority pick in 2006

 

[CharacterFirst]

I don't think it is a decade. But it probably is a good 5 years of making mainly good choices (not all good choices as no one can be perfect) . It is only a decade if you stuff up along the way, and have to keep trying to get things right. ie Saints faltered as they went with the ideas of Bains and Pelchen (ie losing some players for FA compo in years when the picks generated were not good value at all, poor multi pick trades for Hickey and Lee etc and then also miscalculated that gun players would move for just $$$ rather than also a good chance of playing in a successful finals team. Mind you the extra TV Rights $$$ and pay rises for all also helped to undermine that strategy.

Well its already been 5 years - and 5 years of seemingly poor decisions.

A decade more from here seems about right to me if they get it all right from now on - which they won't, no one does.

So longer than average in the doldrums awaits the Hawks!