Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Pessimistic]

It's not as much as big a stretch as you are suggesting. Hawthorn probably have more senior quality quantity-wise, but only Mitchell and Sicily are genuine A-graders. The rest are B or C graders, which as we have established over the life of this thread is deluding them into thinking they doing better than they actually are.

Hawthorn also don't any young players as good as Cripps or Docherty on their list, which was another reason it made it easier to flick the switch on the rebuild.

You can chop up groups as players and divide them all you like (and I think this is also part of the reason this mythology that Hawthorn are only one major trade away from being competitive again) the common theme is both lists didn't look like achieving anything in the short term and all the telltale signs were there the squad wouldn't be back in contention any time soon (ageing list, lack of promising youth, overpaid mercenaries).

Yes Carlton's list in 2015 was genuinely appalling, but this current Hawthorn lineup isn't that much better. I think opposition players worked out pretty early on we weren't a good place to go, whereas Hawthorn at least had some recent premierships as a selling point, and this helps to explain their current list complexion too.

Id say carlton has more stand-out individuals. Mckay for one

 

[Pessimistic]

St Kilda went about list years trade period in exactly the right manner. They hadn't made finals since 2011, so had plenty of youngish guys on the list who talent, but just needed to fill in the gaps and inject some pace into the team. Obviously bringing in Ratten helps, but from a personnel POV St Kilda nailed it.

Id agree. the consolidation starts now.

 

[Pessimistic]

Almost certainly no compo and if it was it would have been nothing of note.

He will be offering more around the club (and on game day) than anything else we would have gotten for him.

If hawks got anything like fair compo for losing Buddy, the Bont would now be in Hawks colours. We just dont get that. Ever

 

[Bestbird]

Don't really agree that Carlton are a good example as their list was just completely f’ed. I've been critical of certain aspects of Carlton's rebuild (I mean Matt Shaw wtf) but it's quite clear they've gotten the meat and potatoes right bringing in Weitering, Mckay, Curnow, Setterfield, Williamson, Kennedy, Fisher, Cunningham, Marchbank, Pittonet, Silvagni, SPS, Newman, Martin, Mcgovern, Plowman, Gibbons and Walsh over 4 draft and trade periods (only listed players I felt have made it). Any other club that hadn't stuffed up their drafting 7 straight years prior would be back up the ladder challenging by now.

The upside for Carlton is they're still average so can add even more quality picks to a good young core. The downside being they still have work to do with quite a few older stop gap players still getting games.

Interesting that in Round 9 Carlton teams was the 3rd oldest 26 Years 72 Days . The only teams with an average age greater in that rouund were Geelong 26 Years 108 Days and of course Hawthorn an alarming 27 Year 140 Days

AFL Tables - Fremantle v Collingwood - Sun, 2-Aug-2020 4:10 PM (6:10 PM) - Match Stats

afltables.com

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Interesting that in Round 9 Carlton teams was the 3rd oldest 26 Years 72 Days . The only teams with an average age greater in that rouund were Geelong 26 Years 108 Days and of course Hawthorn an alarming 27 Year 140 Days

AFL Tables - Fremantle v Collingwood - Sun, 2-Aug-2020 4:10 PM (6:10 PM) - Match Stats

afltables.com

Jeez that is concerning for Calrton, i have been reliably informed it is really to be bad to be mediocre and old.

Guess they may need to rebuild again.

 

[Ambrosia]

Interesting that in Round 9 Carlton teams was the 3rd oldest 26 Years 72 Days . The only teams with an average age greater in that rouund were Geelong 26 Years 108 Days and of course Hawthorn an alarming 27 Year 140 Days

AFL Tables - Fremantle v Collingwood - Sun, 2-Aug-2020 4:10 PM (6:10 PM) - Match Stats

afltables.com

Yeah Carlton have older players propping up their side but I think they have so many young player that its better to make them earn games instead of throwing them to wolves and potentially hurting their development. There's a fair argument that Carlton are the most hurt of any side in the league with no VFL/seconds comp.

 

[WWSD]

We are experts at seeing it first hand.

Clarko got a big head, lost the plot and butchered the Hawthorn list with looney moves like selling the farm for a beaten up O'Meara.

If Hawthorn sold the farm for O’Meara, then what do you call Fremantle trading away picks 1 and 36 in 2001 to Hawthorn? A country? An Island?

Thanks for Hodge and Mitchell, and in helping Hawthorn getting Croad back. Two can play this game.

 

[Pessimistic]

Top 12 in 2019 B&F (Mitchell Patton Frost Day not included)
James Worpel draft 2017
Ricky Henderson psd 2017
Jaegar O’Meara trade 2016
James Sicily draft 2013
Blake Hardwick draft 2015
Jarman Impey trade 2017
Liam Shiels 78 draft 2008
Ben McEvoy trade 2013
Luke Breust draft 2008
Ben Stratton draft 2009
Jack Gunston trade 2011
Isaac Smith draft 2010

Drafted: 7 Traded 4 (7 including Mitchell Wingard Frost) PSD 1

Its not just a topping up strategy

 

[Kram]

If Hawthorn sold the farm for O’Meara, then what do you call Fremantle trading away picks 1 and 36 in 2001 to Hawthorn? A country? An Island?

Thanks for Hodge and Mitchell, and in helping Hawthorn getting Croad back. Two can play this game.

Not sure what a trade nearly 20 years ago (that most Hawthorn fans actually hated at the time) has anything to do with Hawthorn's current plight after they have made some desperate, nutty trades which most footy people thought were crap. Clarko is a supercoach but the list has now been butchered with his help and it will be a lengthy upcoming time at the foot of the ladder. Hawthorn supporters are also notorious for being bandwaggoners that disappear when the club has struggled, so it could be difficult time for the club offfield as well in these lean financial times in the world.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Not sure what a trade nearly 20 years ago (that most Hawthorn fans actually hated at the time) has anything to do with Hawthorn's current plight after they have made some desperate, nutty trades which most foot people thought were crap. Clarko is a supercoach but the list has now been butchered with his help and it will be a lengthy upcoming time at the foot of the ladder. Hawthorn supporters are also notorious for being bandwaggoners that disappear when the club has struggled, so it could be difficult time for the club offfield as well in these lean financial times in the world.

Thanks for the concern mate but we will be just fine off the field thanks. 81k members last year and 13 straight years of breaking the membership record, including each year since the last flag.

 

[Kram]

Thanks for the concern mate but we will be just fine off the field thanks. 81k members last year and 13 straight years of breaking the membership record, including each year since the last flag.

Victorian club membership numbers are about as meaningful as a Liberal government's unemployment figures.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Victorian club membership numbers are about as meaningful as a Liberal government's unemployment figures.

Okay mate

 

[hk89]

Jeez that is concerning for Calrton, i have been reliably informed it is really to be bad to be mediocre and old.

Guess they may need to rebuild again.

They'll not be rebuilding again. It is all part of their "prolonged rebuild" plan. At least that is what I have learnt in this thread today. 25 years, and it is all the same 'prolonged rebuild', not an actual sequences of multiple failed rebuilds. Certainly a list management strategy to embrace as the future model for Hawthorn. Would certainly suit Clarko's deflectional style. "Hey guys, we didn't make finals again, but its a prolonged rebuild process". We could even trot Bolton out to waffle on about Green shoots. Its almost looking like we've been planning this move for a while, and now with Bolton on board we have all our ducks in a row. I knew we really couldn't be this bad. Loosing to almost everyone but Carlton has clearly been all about the draft picks and finally getting on
board the Carlton model.

 

[FairKouta]

This is basically a lie. Part of the problem we have is that unlike teams like Geelong we are not able to rely on our older players, and have got very little out of them for a couple of years now (in general, there are some exceptions). This has left too much work to the younger and mid-range age players. This year we've also got nothing out of our mid range age players, and that has been out biggest issue. When the entire team is underperforming , both old, middle and younger aged it is hard to beat anyone - except Carlton of course.



Haha. Comedy gold. So when Hawthorn fails to win another flag with this list, we'll say its not a failed strategy, we've just got a very prolonged rebuild? Carlton are still sh*t. You lost to us, and we're currently in danger of losing to Adelaide when we meet them such is our shitness. Carlton are the best proof that following an opposite strategy to the one we've taken may not have worked out appreciably better. 5 spoons in 20 years "not a failed strategy". LOL.

This is a bit harsh we did lose draft picks.
so the rebuild was comprimised

They'll not be rebuilding again. It is all part of their "prolonged rebuild" plan. At least that is what I have learnt in this thread today. 25 years, and it is all the same 'prolonged rebuild', not an actual sequences of multiple failed rebuilds. Certainly a list management strategy to embrace as the future model for Hawthorn. Would certainly suit Clarko's deflectional style. "Hey guys, we didn't make finals again, but its a prolonged rebuild process". We could even trot Bolton out to waffle on about Green shoots. Its almost looking like we've been planning this move for a while, and now with Bolton on board we have all our ducks in place. I knew we really couldn't be this bad. Loosing to almost everyone but Carlton has clearly been all about the draft picks and finally getting on
board the Carlton model.

Let’s have a mature argument without bringing up past failures.
Carlton was doomed the day the salary cap story broke out.
We lost drafts picks so our rebuild was doomed from the get go. Our good players were all old and we hardly had any young talent. the club was denied its first two selections in the 2002 National draft, as well as their second and third draft picks – their first pick would be at 45. Futher the Blues were penalised the first and second round picks in the 2003 draft, and the 2002 Preseason draft.
We made the semis in 2011 under ratten.
We made a few final series too.
And then Mick malthouse happened .
But then SoS happened .

 

[Gethelred]

Not a huge age difference. I suppose the difference is the guys not playing. How long do Carlton keep the 'young Turks' tag?
View attachment 924592

Because looking at it this way is a touch disingenuous.

We have 7 players over the age of 29, with Simpson at 36, Murphy and Betts at 33, Kruezer at 31, Ed Curnow and Casboult at 30, and Jones at 29. All else are below the age of 27, with 35 players 25 or younger. Hawthorn has 12 players 29 or older; Burgoyne at 37, Puopolo at 32, Frawley, Stratton, Henderson, Smith, McEvoy at 31, Brooksby at 30, and Bruest, Shiels, Scully and Ceglar at 29. At 25 or younger, you've got 26; comparable, at least at the bottom end.

Where things really differ is the quality in those older lists. You've got leaders, premiership players, and matchwinners in there; we've got the injury struck, the alsorans, and the competent role players; hardly of the same caliber.

There's also the fact that the entirety of your 12 is playing ones footy at present with the exception of Puopolo; that's 11 players of 22. From our list, Kreuzer is out, but because we've only got the seven in that age group that's only 6 of 22. You're - funnily enough - younger at your bottom end, and you've got a similar number of kids, but because they're out of sight they're out of mind.

There's also the fact that you've not publicly created the narrative of a rebuild and we have. The media like simple stories.

 

[WWSD]

Hopefully Adelaide take that South Australian with pick 1 and Will Phillips slips to Hawthorn’s first round pick.

Just need Sydney to start winning some games.

 

[hk89]

This is a bit harsh we did lose draft picks.
so the rebuild was comprimised

Yes, it was, but in what way was your two spoons in 2015 and 2018 about you giving up your National draft picks way back in 2002?

Let’s have a mature argument without bringing up past failures.

Carlton's past failure are part of the conversation though aren't they? Some pundits think Hawthorn would have been better off letting themselves fall further down the ladder after 2006, and rebuilding via the draft instead of attempting to rebuild via trade. Carlton's past failures are probably a big reason Hawthorn didn't think this was a good idea. Melbourne's experience would have also looked like a cautionary tale.

We made the semis in 2011 under ratten.
We made a few final series too.
And then Mick malthouse happened .
But then SoS happened .

No doubt a lot of things happened. One thing that didn't happen is you being able to build a premiership list by spending a lot of time at the bottom of the ladder. As it stands, it looks unlikely we're going to succeed with our trade driven rebuild attempts either, but we've played more finals over this period than Carlton have, so as a fan I can't say I'm any less happy than I would have been following Carlton's polar opposite strategy. Worst case, we've delayed our next solid tilt, and perhaps only deferred some bottom of the ladder pain, but as already mentioned, Hawthorn fans are better cushioned against that kind of disappointment than any other supporter group. I can only imagine how frustrating it must have been listening to Bolton talking about Green shoots and more patience after waiting a couple of decades for top shelf success to return.

 

[FairKouta]

Yes, it was, but in what way was your two spoons in 2015 and 2018 about you giving up your National draft picks way back in 2002?



Carlton's past failure are part of the conversation though aren't they? Some pundits think Hawthorn would have been better off letting themselves fall further down the ladder after 2006, and rebuilding via the draft instead of attempting to rebuild via trade. Carlton's past failures are probably a big reason Hawthorn didn't think this was a good idea. Melbourne's experience would have also looked like a cautionary tale.




No doubt a lot of things happened. One thing that didn't happen is you being able to build a premiership list by spending a lot of time at the bottom of the ladder. As it stands, it looks unlikely we're going to succeed with our trade driven rebuild attempts either, but we've played more finals over this period than Carlton have, so as a fan I can't say I'm any less happy than I would have been following Carlton's polar opposite strategy. Worst case, we've delayed our next solid tilt, and perhaps only deferred some bottom of the ladder pain, but as already mentioned, Hawthorn fans are better cushioned against that kind of disappointment than any other supporter group. I can only imagine how frustrating it must have been listening to Bolton talking about Green shoots and more patience after waiting a couple of decades for top shelf success to return.

Yes, it was, but in what way was your two spoons in 2015 and 2018 about you giving up your National draft picks way back in 2002?



Carlton's past failure are part of the conversation though aren't they? Some pundits think Hawthorn would have been better off letting themselves fall further down the ladder after 2006, and rebuilding via the draft instead of attempting to rebuild via trade. Carlton's past failures are probably a big reason Hawthorn didn't think this was a good idea. Melbourne's experience would have also looked like a cautionary tale.




No doubt a lot of things happened. One thing that didn't happen is you being able to build a premiership list by spending a lot of time at the bottom of the ladder. As it stands, it looks unlikely we're going to succeed with our trade driven rebuild attempts either, but we've played more finals over this period than Carlton have, so as a fan I can't say I'm any less happy than I would have been following Carlton's polar opposite strategy. Worst case, we've delayed our next solid tilt, and perhaps only deferred some bottom of the ladder pain, but as already mentioned, Hawthorn fans are better cushioned against that kind of disappointment than any other supporter group. I can only imagine how frustrating it must have been listening to Bolton talking about Green shoots and more patience after waiting a couple of decades for top shelf success to return.

Clarko did exactly what we did when he first came in a complete rebuild trading out players for picks. That’s why hawthorn have been so good for so long

 

[hk89]

Clarko did exactly what we did when he first came in a complete rebuild trading out players for picks. That’s why hawthorn have been so good for so long

Not really. We got a lot of those picks wrong, and our 2015 premiership winning team had only 3 players from top 10 picks that we used on draft day. Trading and hitting late picks is largely what built the 3-peat list, make no mistake about it. We were cactus in 2009/2010 after losing players post 2008 flag, and rebuilt a second time via trading. Such was turnover after 2008 that half our 2015 list arrived at the club after the 2008 flag, i.e. we built the vast majority of our list with players that didn't come from elite picks we made on draft day. People talk of an elite core, but the elite core from top 10 picks was tiny - so tiny you could easily trade that number of players in.

 

[DKP1]

They would have still finished bottom 2-3, but what Sheedy did was teach them how do be a football club. Same as West COast did getting Malthouse in, and the same as Clarko did for us - set the standards (or re-set in our case) and build on them.

If Sheedy had coached the Suns from day dot, then they would not be in the situation they are in now. Appointing a rookie coach was a massive error.

Hahaha LOL, yeah the reason GWS are winning games now is cause of Sheedy, not cause of the abundance of concessions they got at all.
The Gold Coast not succeeding isn't because Scott Clayton botched their recruiting, it's cause they didn't have a dinosaur like Sheedu coaching them at the start!

Embarrassing.

 

[FairKouta]

Not really. We got a lot of those picks wrong, and our 2015 premiership winning team had only 3 players from top 10 picks that we used on draft day. Trading and hitting late picks is largely what built the 3-peat list, make no mistake about it. We were cactus in 2009/2010 after losing players post 2008 flag, and rebuilt a second time via trading. Such was turnover after 2008 that half our 2015 list arrived at the club after the 2008 flag, i.e. we built the vast majority of our list with players that didn't come from elite picks we made on draft day. People talk of an elite core, but the elite core from top 10 picks was tiny - so tiny you could easily trade that number of players in.

Buddy
Lewis
Mitchell
Cyril
Smith
Hodge
Birchall
brad hill
All early draft picks in your 2013 premiership team

 

[FairKouta]

Not really. We got a lot of those picks wrong, and our 2015 premiership winning team had only 3 players from top 10 picks that we used on draft day. Trading and hitting late picks is largely what built the 3-peat list, make no mistake about it. We were cactus in 2009/2010 after losing players post 2008 flag, and rebuilt a second time via trading. Such was turnover after 2008 that half our 2015 list arrived at the club after the 2008 flag, i.e. we built the vast majority of our list with players that didn't come from elite picks we made on draft day. People talk of an elite core, but the elite core from top 10 picks was tiny - so tiny you could easily trade that number of players in.

Also you can only attract good players if you have a good core like you guys had.
Otherwise they won’t come which you guys know about having missed out on a few players lately.

 

[Pessimistic]

Also you can only attract good players if you have a good core like you guys had.
Otherwise they won’t come which you guys know about having missed out on a few players lately.

‘competition. More and more clubs are ‘topping up’ these days. It’s almost like the whole footy world has moved on and we are all stuck in this time warped thread

 

[FairKouta]

‘competition. More and more clubs are ‘topping up’ these days. It’s almost like the whole footy world has moved on and we are all stuck in this time warped thread

I think the majority of hawks supporters understand and accept a rebuild is needed and you need to get into the high end of the draft to build a good young core and Kpps.
O’Brien and lewis or patton not the answer.

Then there are a few who don’t think that’s the answer. There are oppo supporters who are here for the schadenfreude and others who love talking footy like me. Just standard big footy for you.

 

[Hot Diggity]

Hahaha LOL, yeah the reason GWS are winning games now is cause of Sheedy, not cause of the abundance of concessions they got at all.
The Gold Coast not succeeding isn't because Scott Clayton botched their recruiting, it's cause they didn't have a dinosaur like Sheedu coaching them at the start!

Embarrassing.

You obviously have absolutely zero idea of how culture affects performance...

Based on your concessions argument, why then have the Suns been so shit despite all the concessions they have had?