Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[footyfan1978]

Numbers game right over the head.

 

[juss]

Why do you assume you are the only one pondering? You have quite an ego on you.

Can you point to some of your recent accurate predictions on team performance over the last couple of years maybe?

We can compare that to Clarko's record.

Cheers.

Read the thread. The vast majority of Hawks fans offer no intelligent input other than it must be the best leading strategy that will lead to premierships and every other team is ignorent and behind because Clarko.

 

[juss]

He’s won 4 bloody flags mate, how is it “blind faith”?

Who’s shown a “better way” to win flags, can you please enlighten me?

Hawks and Clarkson themselves had a better way to use one example. Their success was built on an entirely different list model - the elite talent of the draft. This is quite clearly a different way than their prior years and there is an assumption that it's going to lead to premierships, some have quoted within 3 years mind you, with little other argument than because Clarko.

My challenge is to argue a little deeper and explain why and how, no one really offers anything better in response.

 

[HairyO]

Read the thread. The vast majority of Hawks fans offer no intelligent input other than it must be the best leading strategy that will lead to premierships and every other team is ignorent and behind because Clarko.

But I was asking for your predictions which have turned out to be correct, so they can be compared against Clarko's time as coach.

You are the one mocking people who have said they trust Clarko is doing the right thing.

So Im sure you can back it up.

 

[Pessimistic]

its Clarko, you take the whole package. better or worse.

I challenge anyone to find just one bigfooty post circa 2009-2010 predicting that basically that list could achieve a threepeat.

In truth, they had more resemblance to this thread

 

[Pessimistic]

Read the thread. The vast majority of Hawks fans offer no intelligent input other than it must be the best leading strategy that will lead to premierships and every other team is ignorent and behind because Clarko.

Not only do our opinions differ wildly, our definition of 'Intelligent input" does too. What other teams do is up to them. In fact the more that go on a rebuilding bender, tossing out valuable players the better for us.
All lists regenerate to varying degrees. But ponder on this. Not only did clarko win three flags in a row, the subsequent three flags were won by coaches from the hawthorn system

 

[TheFourPillars]

That's right. Was yours to start with and gave up that opportunity to draft another elite young player to re-build with. That is what the thread is about. Ignoring those picks as examples. Will they succeed doings things like that three national drafts in a row? Most of us know this is only going to end in tears for your fans. Hoping it won't and clinging to "It's just a lottery so it does not count thinking" is going to be found wanting to keep trotting out as we get into next decade. The head in sand approach, is interesting to observe continue.

The fact is was pick 7 was unknown as it was a future pick going to the draft is one way of obtaining talent just one way. If we have a top 5 pick this year we will almost definitely take it to the draft unless that pick gives another opportunity to pick up a gun player.

 

[blue harvest]

According to some , going to the draft and using pick 7 on Scrimshaw and pick 21 on Impey = accessing elite end of draft = good

but

getting them a couple of years later when they are ages 20 and 22 for 2 late round pick swaps and pick 33 = bad = not accessing elite end of draft

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hawks and Clarkson themselves had a better way to use one example. Their success was built on an entirely different list model - the elite talent of the draft. This is quite clearly a different way than their prior years and there is an assumption that it's going to lead to premierships, some have quoted within 3 years mind you, with little other argument than because Clarko.

My challenge is to argue a little deeper and explain why and how, no one really offers anything better in response.

You’ve obviously missed a lot of the earlier responses in this thread.

Here’s the top end talent Clarkson has brought onto the list in the last 3 years without having to purge the list to gain top 10 picks.

Mitchell
O’meara
Wingard
Scrimshaw

That’s 4 top line players in 3 drafts.

Suggesting that Clarkson needs to instead bottom out and go to the draft because that’s what he did in 2004-5 forgets one important factor....he didn’t really have a choice in those years as he had inherited a basket case.

But there’s something extra to note, even back then Clarkson decided to take a punt on a delisted forward pocket(Guerra), and a delisted fullback(Gilham), then in 2007 he decided to draft in a retired half Forward(Dew)....all three became premiership players.

Clarkson has always had an eye on bringing talent in in a multitude of ways, but when the opportunity arose he used the draft.

 

[Scotland]

According to some , going to the draft and using pick 7 on Scrimshaw and pick 21 on Impey = accessing elite end of draft = good

but

getting them a couple of years later when they are ages 20 and 22 for 2 late round pick swaps and pick 33 = bad = not accessing elite end of draft

Are that many people really questioning the recruiting of those guys? It's more the price (salary + currency) paid for O'Meara, Scully, Wingard, Vickery etc that raises eyebrows. And the overall effect of bringing in guys 25+ on list profile.

AFAIC Impey and Scrimshaw are free hits. Even Henderson who is 31 and looks 47 wouldn't have cost much as a DFA. I like Impey, he's quite damaging when he has the ball. We opted to tag him over a mid and he had no influence in the first half of our game then was important in the second when Hutchings went off injured. Needs more pieces around him because he is taggable in the role he plays.

 

[Pessimistic]

Even now that elite young player could bust going forward

Are that many people really questioning the recruiting of those guys? It's more the price (salary + currency) paid for O'Meara, Scully, Wingard, Vickery etc that raises eyebrows. And the overall effect of bringing in guys 25+ on list profile.

AFAIC Impey and Scrimshaw are free hits. Even Henderson who is 31 and looks 47 wouldn't have cost much as a DFA. I like Impey, he's quite damaging when he has the ball. We opted to tag him over a mid and he had no influence in the first half of our game then was important in the second when Hutchings went off injured. Needs more pieces around him because he is taggable in the role he plays.

Average age at time of trading in of 6 players is 24. I'm ignoring FA and delisted pick ups

 

[Pessimistic]

You’ve obviously missed a lot of the earlier responses in this thread.

Here’s the top end talent Clarkson has brought onto the list in the last 3 years without having to purge the list to gain top 10 picks.

Mitchell
O’meara
Wingard
Scrimshaw

That’s 4 top line players in 3 drafts.

Suggesting that Clarkson needs to instead bottom out and go to the draft because that’s what he did in 2004-5 forgets one important factor....he didn’t really have a choice in those years as he had inherited a basket case.

But there’s something extra to note, even back then Clarkson decided to take a punt on a delisted forward pocket(Guerra), and a delisted fullback(Gilham), then in 2007 he decided to draft in a retired half
Forward(Dew)....all three became premiership players.

Clarkson has always had an eye on bringing talent in in a multitude of ways, but when the opportunity arose he used the draft.

Note that he kept Croad, Crawford, Bateman, Osborne, Ladson, Williams, Campbell around and got them a premiership medal. He doesn't go silly with clean-outs

 

[blue harvest]

The hilarious irony in this situation is that Clarko's success was built entirely on a group of core players that came from the elite part of the draft, namely guys like Hodge, Lewis, Franklin, Roughead, Rioli with Mitchell being the exception.

Although to be fair we did get lucky with that bunch, very unlikely to get the same result again. And back then we finished near the bottom for a couple of years with priority picks galore and we somehow got Freo to give us their priority pick too, we had 7 picks in the top 7 over 4 years, we haven't had the same top end access to the draft this time around.

 

[footyfan1978]

The fact is was pick 7 was unknown as it was a future pick

It was a first round pick but at the time you traded it away, the exact pick number is unknown. Spot on.

 

[juss]

But I was asking for your predictions which have turned out to be correct, so they can be compared against Clarko's time as coach.

You are the one mocking people who have said they trust Clarko is doing the right thing.

So Im sure you can back it up.

I predict Hawks won't win a flag in the next 3 years as other posters have stated. There you go.

Also, please point me to Clarkson's predictions of the next 3 years that I am competing with?

 

[Pessimistic]

Traded up for the Croad and Lewis Picks. Blew the Thorp Dowler Muston picks and got unlucky with Ellis. Played Poker with Wallace (richmond) and Rocket (Bulldogs) in 2004 - we need to thank those guys too.

And dont worry, Clarko was completely unknown back then but the amount of second guessing on him was only marginally less then now.

 

[Pessimistic]

Mate there’s 200 pages to look at. No one wants to repeat in depth responses

 

[Pessimistic]

between the 15 and 16 drafts, 5 clubs involved in first round picks and 18 pick swaps overall (wikipedia)
16 and 17: 7 clubs involved in first round swaps and 20 swaps overall
17 and 18: 3 clubs involved in 1st round and 29 swaps overall

Seems like the Hawks aren't the only ones trading picks between drafts, and the trend seems to be upwards

 

[threesixpio]

I just don't understand about this whole "you need a core from the draft" theory.

Who cares where the core comes from if you can build around it?

You can see the comparisons of the core, with the only glaring difference being our lack of a tall forward of the Buddy/Rough variety:
O'meara ~ Hodge
T.Mitchell ~ S.Mitchell
Worpol ~ J.Lewis
Wingard ~ Rioli
Scully ~ Hill
Sicily ~ Birchall

This

 

[HairyO]

I predict Hawks won't win a flag in the next 3 years as other posters have stated. There you go.

Also, please point me to Clarkson's predictions of the next 3 years that I am competing with?

Youre competing against Clarko's actual performance. No need for wishy washy predictions.

So your full prediction is our current state of trading draft picks to bring in players wont work, but if we were to bottom out for a couple of years and bring in 1st and 2nd pick players we would be winning flags again very quickly?

 

[juss]

Youre competing against Clarko's actual performance. No need for wishy washy predictions.

So your full prediction is our current state of trading draft picks to bring in players wont work, but if we were to bottom out for a couple of years and bring in 1st and 2nd pick players we would be winning flags again very quickly?

No. There is no quick 2-3 year fix for a Flag in that period. Hawks aren't winning one that soon regardless is my prediction, but they may very well be and probably will be finals competitive.

 

[Gavin Excell]

You’ve obviously missed a lot of the earlier responses in this thread.

Here’s the top end talent Clarkson has brought onto the list in the last 3 years without having to purge the list to gain top 10 picks.

Mitchell
O’meara
Wingard
Scrimshaw

That’s 4 top line players in 3 drafts.

Suggesting that Clarkson needs to instead bottom out and go to the draft because that’s what he did in 2004-5 forgets one important factor....he didn’t really have a choice in those years as he had inherited a basket case.

But there’s something extra to note, even back then Clarkson decided to take a punt on a delisted forward pocket(Guerra), and a delisted fullback(Gilham), then in 2007 he decided to draft in a retired half
Forward(Dew)....all three became premiership players.

Clarkson has always had an eye on bringing talent in in a multitude of ways, but when the opportunity arose he used the draft.

Scrimshaw seems to have somehow made the jump to "top end talent" with very little evidence

 

[TallyHawk]

According to some , going to the draft and using pick 7 on Scrimshaw and pick 21 on Impey = accessing elite end of draft = good

but

getting them a couple of years later when they are ages 20 and 22 for 2 late round pick swaps and pick 33 = bad = not accessing elite end of draft

Perhaps if Sicily, Hardwick, Worpel and Lewis were taken in the elite end of the draft instead of late gems we wouldn't have anything to discuss.


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[TheFourPillars]

Scrimshaw seems to have somehow made the jump to "top end talent" with very little evidence

Yeah true not there yet not even close however shows great signs

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Scrimshaw seems to have somehow made the jump to "top end talent" with very little evidence

He was a top ten pick...

If we just overlook how good he has been this year, that’s all that matters according to this thread isn’t ?