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Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

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MightyHawks said:
I'm not clutching at straws at all

Coniglio is one of many players that we may be interested in recruiting at the end of the year

As I said will be interesting to see how it plays out

From your perspective, not sure why you are so concerned about Conigli, he is just one of many Giants players who is considering leaving your club when his contract expires
Click to expand...
Many clubs are interested in Coniglio, not just Hawthorn. For what it's worth, based on his performance this year, I'd be happy for Coniglio to leave if he chooses to. He's regressed consisrably and his defensive work which was once hiss greatest strength has been deplorable.

Many players considering leaving the Giants? Name them.
 
Ron The Bear said:
I'm really surprised to see Hawthorn supporters persisting with the 'fastest rebuild in history' line. The age of Hawthorn teams has been more or less static for some time.

2013 26.01 2nd oldest team
2014 25.85 4th
2015 26.82 1st
2016 26.49 2nd
2017 26.14 2nd
2018 26.13 1st
2019 26.43 1st

Saturday's team was Hawthorn's oldest since 2016, and the 15th oldest in club history.

The Hawks are in a holding pattern, without the results of yore.

Most over-30's in a team:

Over 30'sClubYearRoundID
9Fi19461
9Co19209
8Ha201919
8Ha201917
8NM201619
8NM201617
8NM201613
8NM201612
8NM201611
8NM201610
8Ge201515
8Ha199622
8Ha199621
8Ha199618
8Ha199617
8Ha199616
8Ha199615
8Ha199614
8Ha199610
8Ha19969
8Ha19964
8Fi19464
8Fi19462
8Fi194514
8Fi194511
8Co192014
8Co19206
8Co19205
Click to expand...

So what? There are two things causing that;

1/ a handful of old players who will shortly be gone. That is inflating the age profile.
2/ the entire premise of this thread is the Hawks are not drafting kids instead using their picks to obtain established players. That is also inflating the age profile of the list.

If the Hawks drafted five 18 year olds every year then the average age would be lower. Instead they bring in 24/25/26 year olds which makes the average age higher.

Average age is not really relevant any more.
 
Buzzasto DaSilva said:
Many clubs are interested in Coniglio, not just Hawthorn. For what it's worth, based on his performance this year, I'd be happy for Coniglio to leave if he chooses to. He's regressed consisrably and his defensive work which was once hiss greatest strength has been deplorable.

Many players considering leaving the Giants? Name them.
Click to expand...

Name them?

Nearly every Giants player has considered leaving at the end of the contract. Some leave, some stay - you usually pay players who want to stay well

Your whole model is set up expecting to shed players

Players know this player managers know this. GWS know this

I'm genuinely surprised their supporters don't
 

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Ron The Bear said:
I'm really surprised to see Hawthorn supporters persisting with the 'fastest rebuild in history' line. The age of Hawthorn teams has been more or less static for some time.

2013 26.01 2nd oldest team
2014 25.85 4th
2015 26.82 1st
2016 26.49 2nd
2017 26.14 2nd
2018 26.13 1st
2019 26.43 1st

Saturday's team was Hawthorn's oldest since 2016, and the 15th oldest in club history.

The Hawks are in a holding pattern, without the results of yore.

Most over-30's in a team:

Over 30'sClubYearRoundID
9Fi19461
9Co19209
8Ha201919
8Ha201917
8NM201619
8NM201617
8NM201613
8NM201612
8NM201611
8NM201610
8Ge201515
8Ha199622
8Ha199621
8Ha199618
8Ha199617
8Ha199616
8Ha199615
8Ha199614
8Ha199610
8Ha19969
8Ha19964
8Fi19464
8Fi19462
8Fi194514
8Fi194511
8Co192014
8Co19206
8Co19205
Click to expand...

Hi Ron

Interesting stats

It's possible that free agency has meant that a team is more likely to recruit an older player than a younger player

Do you have the average age stats for every premier compared with the average age of every finalist compared to the average age of the competition itself?
 
QuietB said:
So the history of a well run club compared to the history of a poorly run club is irrelevant?

The history of a rich club compared to the history of a poor club is irrelevant?

The history of having done something before has no bearing on if you can do it again?

:oops:
Click to expand...
Of course but it’s not a given like Hawks fans think. Essendon, Collingwood, Richmond, are clubs that probably thought the same and yet all have gone through huge droughts at some time or another.
Hawthorn aren’t going to stay at the top forever, all empires fall eventually
 
QuietB said:
So what? There are two things causing that;

1/ a handful of old players who will shortly be gone. That is inflating the age profile.
...
Average age is not really relevant any more.
Click to expand...

Generally speaking, a fall in team average age corresponds with a fall in ladder position.
 
MightyHawks said:
Do you have the average age stats for every premier compared with the average age of every finalist compared to the average age of the competition itself?
Click to expand...

YearPremierAvg Age (H&A)Age Rank (H&A)Premier GF AgeAFL Age (H&A)Finalist Avg Age (H&A)Avg Age Top 4 Last Final < GF
2018WC25.734th/1826.2925.0725.4025.28
2017Ri24.6514th/1825.1225.0925.4725.30
2016WB24.5314th/1824.3925.1825.7525.21
2015Ha26.821st/1827.8325.0525.7426.38
2014Ha25.854th/1826.8024.9625.6625.65
2013Ha26.012nd/1826.7624.7625.3525.90
2012Sy25.982nd/1826.5024.5825.0925.15
2011Ge26.681st/1727.2724.4425.1125.30
2010Co24.786th/1624.1624.5725.2025.94
2009Ge25.653rd/1626.7124.5924.8225.45
2008Ha23.8515th/1624.6024.7325.2125.10
2007Ge24.5311th/1625.4924.9325.0024.82
2006WC24.4312th/1625.2324.8925.3325.32
2005Sy25.383rd/1625.7524.8725.1625.09
2004PA25.822nd/1627.0124.6624.8025.11
2003Br26.301st/1626.7224.6424.8525.32
2002Br25.483rd/1626.3624.6224.7724.93
2001Br24.678th/1625.4124.7825.1024.73
2000Es25.135th/1625.6624.6525.0025.14
1999NM25.114th/1625.6524.6824.8725.11
1998Ad24.856th/1625.0924.5524.8825.01
1997Ad24.576th/1624.7824.5224.5424.75
1996NM25.623rd/1626.1324.6225.1524.87
1995Ca26.111st/1626.7724.6724.8025.14
1994WC24.997th/1525.3324.7125.0425.06
1993Es24.3912th/1524.2924.7125.0624.83
1992WC24.1514th/1524.4524.6324.9624.74
1991Ha25.781st/1526.4524.7124.7724.70
1990Co24.666th/1425.1524.6124.9324.68
1989Ha26.113rd/1426.3624.6124.7925.04
1988Ha25.713rd/1426.3724.5524.5324.62
1987Ca24.189th/1424.5424.5224.6924.87
1986Ha25.522nd/1225.7924.6925.1825.11
1985Es25.632nd/1225.7924.5825.0825.15
1984Es24.785th/1225.1024.8125.1325.23
1983Ha25.455th/1225.4924.9525.3525.24
1982Ca25.912nd/1225.8624.6025.4225.77
1981Ca25.532nd/1225.2524.6724.8025.03
1980Ri25.036th/1225.3224.6825.0525.00
1979Ca25.323rd/1225.1424.5924.7625.21
1978Ha23.929th/1223.8324.2824.6024.72
1977NM25.152nd/1225.4024.1924.4924.51
1976Ha23.668th/1223.8224.0624.0024.19
1975NM25.641st/1226.6223.8624.2324.46
1974Ri24.472nd/1225.3023.7323.8924.12
1973Ri24.121st/1224.4523.5023.8623.87
1972Ca23.822nd/1224.6723.2023.6623.66
1971Ha23.078th/1224.3123.1323.3923.40
1970Ca23.602nd/1224.5223.0723.2923.33
1969Ri23.105th/1223.4623.0723.2423.26
1968Ca23.464th/1223.4623.1823.5123.53
1967Ri23.216th/1223.4623.0723.1223.15
1966St23.273rd/1223.3123.1823.4923.51
1965Es24.641st/1224.7723.3223.5223.52
1964Me23.345th/1224.2823.1923.4823.52
1963Ge22.936th/1223.4322.9823.2323.24
1962Es22.957th/1223.3023.1123.2923.32
1961Ha23.016th/1223.0423.1323.1423.17
1960Me24.103rd/1224.0523.1723.6423.64
1959Me24.223rd/1224.4023.3823.8123.82
1958Co23.506th/1222.9423.4223.5923.61
1957Me23.0012th/1223.3123.4623.5823.60
1956Me23.793rd/1223.7023.3523.3323.34
1955Me22.8211th/1223.1723.3723.3323.33
1954WB22.9912th/1223.6323.6823.7423.77
1953Co23.576th/1223.4623.5823.4723.48
1952Ge23.499th/1223.7823.8223.9823.98
1951Ge23.957th/1223.5223.9823.6223.64
1950Es25.422nd/1225.9624.3824.9024.92
1949Es25.033rd/1225.2824.4024.6424.67
1948Me25.251st/1225.6524.5024.5724.59
1947Ca24.887th/1225.3024.9125.1925.22
1946Es25.424th/1225.6125.2925.3625.37
1945Ca25.326th/1225.6625.4025.6625.66
1944Fi26.911st/1227.6825.4825.5125.52
1943Ri25.445th/1125.4025.4825.9725.96
1942Es25.167th/1125.4125.1925.3425.35
1941Me25.373rd/1224.5824.8425.5425.55
1940Me24.707th/1224.6124.8025.0625.07
1939Me24.2810th/1224.7024.7524.9624.98
1938Ca26.201st/1226.1724.7724.8024.82
1937Ge24.985th/1225.5924.9625.0425.08
1936Co24.737th/1224.5924.9425.1625.19
1935Co24.857th/1224.9025.0225.5625.58
1934Ri25.902nd/1226.7725.1025.4425.48
1933Sy24.976th/1225.3624.9224.9624.98
1932Ri24.706th/1225.1824.8524.7224.73
1931Ge24.626th/1225.0824.6024.7624.78
1930Co24.655th/1225.2024.4224.3424.39
1929Co24.754th/1224.8924.4424.5724.60
1928Co23.8811th/1224.5524.8125.0124.99
1927Co24.0311th/1224.6124.8024.8124.82
1926Me25.087th/1225.3324.9124.7824.81
1925Ge23.9912th/1224.2625.3024.8524.87
1924Es26.791st/925.6526.19
1923Es26.154th/927.7325.7525.8525.86
1922Fi25.606th/926.1825.7425.4925.52
1921Ri26.861st/926.9226.2726.4326.41
1920Ri26.403rd/926.0126.1626.4126.39
1919Co26.722nd/926.9525.9526.1126.19
1918Sy25.007th/825.2125.5225.6225.65
1917Co25.982nd/626.2625.3625.7925.82
1916Fi25.992nd/426.4625.5825.5825.60
1915Ca25.593rd/926.0225.2025.8125.81
1914Ca25.115th/1024.9524.8525.2725.29
1913Fi25.075th/1025.6724.7325.0825.13
1912Es25.832nd/1026.7924.6225.2325.25
1911Es24.974th/1025.6724.3025.4225.44
1910Co25.812nd/1026.4324.0525.1725.20
1909Sy23.809th/1024.0524.4325.1125.14
1908Ca25.482nd/1027.2924.5624.9424.97
1907Ca25.601st/825.8124.6924.8624.87
1906Ca25.283rd/825.3624.6024.9424.97
1905Fi24.445th/825.2224.6924.9624.98
1904Fi23.478th/824.4524.9225.0925.14
1903Co26.441st/827.5524.9025.0525.07
1902Co26.471st/826.5724.8124.9624.97
1901Es24.884th/825.1124.7825.3325.32
1900Me24.137th/824.3024.9224.75
1899Fi24.526th/825.3524.8124.79
1898Fi23.616th/824.1824.1924.25
1897Es24.043rd/823.8623.82
 
Last edited:
Could you add in one more stat - Average age of the top 4 for each year at the end of the finals (not the end of the H&A season)

Ron The Bear said:
YearPremierAvg Age (H&A)Age Rank (H&A)GF AgeAFL Age (H&A)Finalist Age (H&A)
2018WC25.734th/1826.2925.0725.40
2017Ri24.6514th/1825.1225.0925.47
2016WB24.5314th/1824.3925.1825.75
2015Ha26.821st/1827.8325.0525.74
2014Ha25.854th/1826.8024.9625.66
2013Ha26.012nd/1826.7624.7625.35
2012Sy25.982nd/1826.5024.5825.09
2011Ge26.681st/1727.2724.4425.11
2010Co24.786th/1624.1624.5725.20
2009Ge25.653rd/1626.7124.5924.82
2008Ha23.8515th/1624.6024.7325.21
2007Ge24.5311th/1625.4924.9325.00
2006WC24.4312th/1625.2324.8925.33
2005Sy25.383rd/1625.7524.8725.16
2004PA25.822nd/1627.0124.6624.80
2003Br26.301st/1626.7224.6424.85
2002Br25.483rd/1626.3624.6224.77
2001Br24.678th/1625.4124.7825.10
2000Es25.135th/1625.6624.6525.00
1999NM25.114th/1625.6524.6824.87
1998Ad24.856th/1625.0924.5524.88
1997Ad24.576th/1624.7824.5224.54
1996NM25.623rd/1626.1324.6225.15
1995Ca26.111st/1626.7724.6724.80
1994WC24.997th/1525.3324.7125.04
1993Es24.3912th/1524.2924.7125.06
1992WC24.1514th/1524.4524.6324.96
1991Ha25.781st/1526.4524.7124.77
1990Co24.666th/1425.1524.6124.93
1989Ha26.113rd/1426.3624.6124.79
1988Ha25.713rd/1426.3724.5524.53
1987Ca24.189th/1424.5424.5224.69
1986Ha25.522nd/1225.7924.6925.18
1985Es25.632nd/1225.7924.5825.08
1984Es24.785th/1225.1024.8125.13
1983Ha25.455th/1225.4924.9525.35
1982Ca25.912nd/1225.8624.6025.42
1981Ca25.532nd/1225.2524.6724.80
1980Ri25.036th/1225.3224.6825.05
1979Ca25.323rd/1225.1424.5924.76
1978Ha23.929th/1223.8324.2824.60
1977NM25.152nd/1225.4024.1924.49
1976Ha23.668th/1223.8224.0624.00
1975NM25.641st/1226.6223.8624.23
1974Ri24.472nd/1225.3023.7323.89
1973Ri24.121st/1224.4523.5023.86
1972Ca23.822nd/1224.6723.2023.66
1971Ha23.078th/1224.3123.1323.39
1970Ca23.602nd/1224.5223.0723.29
1969Ri23.105th/1223.4623.0723.24
1968Ca23.464th/1223.4623.1823.51
1967Ri23.216th/1223.4623.0723.12
1966St23.273rd/1223.3123.1823.49
1965Es24.641st/1224.7723.3223.52
1964Me23.345th/1224.2823.1923.48
1963Ge22.936th/1223.4322.9823.23
1962Es22.957th/1223.3023.1123.29
1961Ha23.016th/1223.0423.1323.14
1960Me24.103rd/1224.0523.1723.64
1959Me24.223rd/1224.4023.3823.81
1958Co23.506th/1222.9423.4223.59
1957Me23.0012th/1223.3123.4623.58
1956Me23.793rd/1223.7023.3523.33
1955Me22.8211th/1223.1723.3723.33
1954WB22.9912th/1223.6323.6823.74
1953Co23.576th/1223.4623.5823.47
1952Ge23.499th/1223.7823.8223.98
1951Ge23.957th/1223.5223.9823.62
1950Es25.422nd/1225.9624.3824.90
1949Es25.033rd/1225.2824.4024.64
1948Me25.251st/1225.6524.5024.57
1947Ca24.887th/1225.3024.9125.19
1946Es25.424th/1225.6125.2925.36
1945Ca25.326th/1225.6625.4025.66
1944Fi26.911st/1227.6825.4825.51
1943Ri25.445th/1125.4025.4825.97
1942Es25.167th/1125.4125.1925.34
1941Me25.373rd/1224.5824.8425.54
1940Me24.707th/1224.6124.8025.06
1939Me24.2810th/1224.7024.7524.96
1938Ca26.201st/1226.1724.7724.80
1937Ge24.985th/1225.5924.9625.04
1936Co24.737th/1224.5924.9425.16
1935Co24.857th/1224.9025.0225.56
1934Ri25.902nd/1226.7725.1025.44
1933Sy24.976th/1225.3624.9224.96
1932Ri24.706th/1225.1824.8524.72
1931Ge24.626th/1225.0824.6024.76
1930Co24.655th/1225.2024.4224.34
1929Co24.754th/1224.8924.4424.57
1928Co23.8811th/1224.5524.8125.01
1927Co24.0311th/1224.6124.8024.81
1926Me25.087th/1225.3324.9124.78
1925Ge23.9912th/1224.2625.3024.85
1924Es26.791st/925.6526.19
1923Es26.154th/927.7325.7525.85
1922Fi25.606th/926.1825.7425.49
1921Ri26.861st/926.9226.2726.43
1920Ri26.403rd/926.0126.1626.41
1919Co26.722nd/926.9525.9526.11
1918Sy25.007th/825.2125.5225.62
1917Co25.982nd/626.2625.3625.79
1916Fi25.992nd/426.4625.5825.58
1915Ca25.593rd/926.0225.2025.81
1914Ca25.115th/1024.9524.8525.27
1913Fi25.075th/1025.6724.7325.08
1912Es25.832nd/1026.7924.6225.23
1911Es24.974th/1025.6724.3025.42
1910Co25.812nd/1026.4324.0525.17
1909Sy23.809th/1024.0524.4325.11
1908Ca25.482nd/1027.2924.5624.94
1907Ca25.601st/825.8124.6924.86
1906Ca25.283rd/825.3624.6024.94
1905Fi24.445th/825.2224.6924.96
1904Fi23.478th/824.4524.9225.09
1903Co26.441st/827.5524.9025.05
1902Co26.471st/826.5724.8124.96
1901Es24.884th/825.1124.7825.33
1900Me24.137th/824.3024.9224.75
1899Fi24.526th/825.3524.8124.79
1898Fi23.616th/824.1824.1924.25
1897Es24.043rd/823.8623.82
Click to expand...
 
Great8 said:
Of course but it’s not a given like Hawks fans think. Essendon, Collingwood, Richmond, are clubs that probably thought the same and yet all have gone through huge droughts at some time or another.
Hawthorn aren’t going to stay at the top forever, all empires fall eventually
Click to expand...

Absolutely. I don't think anyone is disputing that.
 
MightyHawks said:
Name them?

Nearly every Giants player has considered leaving at the end of the contract. Some leave, some stay - you usually pay players who want to stay well

Your whole model is set up expecting to shed players

Players know this player managers know this. GWS know this

I'm genuinely surprised their supporters don't
Click to expand...
Is the Hawks model any different?

Or does Clarkson have a different method/touch?

For what it's worth we have only wanted to desperately keep three players that have left the club since we begun- Nathan Wilson, Dylan Shiel and Will Setterfield. The rest have been planned sacrifices and we have allowed each one to get to the club of their choice.
 
Last edited:
MightyHawks said:
Could you add in one more stat - Average age of the top 4 for each year at the end of the finals (not the end of the H&A season)
Click to expand...

I keep finals out of it because then it's not comparing apples with apples. Teams are at their oldest in September (obviously) and it warps the comparisons with non-finalists. And not all finalists play an equal number of finals.

Also, the age advantage is not as apparent in finals, i.e. younger teams are more likely to win in finals than in h&a matches.
 

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Ron The Bear said:
I keep finals out of it because then it's not comparing apples with apples. Teams are at their oldest in September (obviously) and it warps the comparisons with non-finalists. And not all finalists play an equal number of finals.

Also, the age advantage is not as apparent in finals, i.e. younger teams are more likely to win in finals than in h&a matches.
Click to expand...
No I mean what is the average age of the 4 teams that play in the Preliminary Finals (use whatever method you use to assess the age of the premier)
 
stfan said:
It depends how you define competitive. Hawks are currently equal 13th on the ladder.
Click to expand...

Well...they are in 11th spot. I think the largest loss was by under 5 goals. They've beaten Geelong last week by 4 goals, and beaten other top 8 sides. That doesn't seem competitive?
 
Ron The Bear said:
I'm really surprised to see Hawthorn supporters persisting with the 'fastest rebuild in history' line. The age of Hawthorn teams has been more or less static for some time.

2013 26.01 2nd oldest team
2014 25.85 4th
2015 26.82 1st
2016 26.49 2nd
2017 26.14 2nd
2018 26.13 1st
2019 26.43 1st

Saturday's team was Hawthorn's oldest since 2016, and the 15th oldest in club history.

The Hawks are in a holding pattern, without the results of yore.

Most over-30's in a team:

Over 30'sClubYearRound
9Fi19461
9Co19209
8Ha201919
8Ha201917
8NM201619
8NM201617
8NM201613
8NM201612
8NM201611
8NM201610
8Ge201515
8Ha199622
8Ha199621
8Ha199618
8Ha199617
8Ha199616
8Ha199615
8Ha199614
8Ha199610
8Ha19969
8Ha19964
8Fi19464
8Fi19462
8Fi194514
8Fi194511
8Co192014
8Co19206
8Co19205
Click to expand...

27 y 304 d in 2015 GF West Coast were 25 y 341 d. Of course its a holding pattern
Burgoyne now in his 20th season was recruited to hawks at the age of 28
Thats the age Cyril Rioli effectively retired.

from 2010 on their average age was 24.5 - 25.5 - 26.5 - 27.5 - 28.5 -29.5 but still useful in 2015 even though they skewed the age upwards

I laboured my point, just saying a very mature recruit can have just as productive a career as a draftee, often having a longer career
 
Last edited:

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QuietB said:
What about to be old and transitioning?
Click to expand...

Depends what you're transitioning to. Patch-up v rebuild is the subject of the thread.

Hawthorn's position demands significant change, in the vein of Mitchell/Lewis at the end of 2016. They've chosen to keep stuffing ready-mades into the list in preference to drafting kids. Wouldn't be surprised to see some big names bandied about as targets in the trade period.

That approach doesn't always come off - see Port Adelaide. Hawthorn probably has a stronger culture with which to integrate this type of player. Still waiting for Wingard to fire, though.
 
For every mature recruit since 2015, a (draft age) draftee has become best 22. One for one into the best 22

Are people seriously suggesting they go harder than that? sounds balanced to me, and is what happened 2008-2015

Draftees———-Trades
Sicily—————T Mitchell
Howe—————O’Meara
Hardwick———Impey
Worpel————Wingard
Nash—————Henderson
Lewis—————Scrimshaw
??????————-????????
 
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