Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[matey]

Plough just on SEN gave his top 3 players under 50 games. Nu 1 Tim Kelly and Nu 2 Worpel! Elite end of the draft over rated. Worpel will be a beast gun mid for the next decade taken at pick 45. Hilarious . And where was Kelly taken?

 

[Ron The Bear]

Plough just on SEN gave his top 3 players under 50 games. Nu 1 Tim Kelly and Nu 2 Worpel!

3rd was Marshall? O'Brien? Walsh?

Who is Hawthorn's next best < 50 games after Worpel? Lewis? Cousins?

 

[cryptor]

3rd was Marshall? O'Brien? Walsh?

Who is Hawthorn's next best < 50 games after Worpel? Lewis? Cousins?

Scrimshaw, with Lewis quickly rising.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

For every mature recruit since 2015, a (draft age) draftee has become best 22. One for one into the best 22

Are people seriously suggesting they go harder than that? sounds balanced to me, and is what happened 2008-2015

Draftees———-Trades
Sicily—————T Mitchell
Howe—————O’Meara
Hardwick———Impey
Worpel————Wingard
Nash—————Henderson
Lewis—————Scrimshaw
??????————-????????

Well given the Hawks haven't won a final since 2015, and are about to finish outside the eight for the second time in three seasons despite an incredibly old list and a ridiculous amount of topping up, I'd say the "rebuild" has been an unmitigated disaster at this point.

 

[Pessimistic]

ridiculous amount of topping up? we know GWS don't do it but its not unknown - have a look at the current other top six sides

 

[matey]

3rd was Marshall? O'Brien? Walsh?

Who is Hawthorn's next best < 50 games after Worpel? Lewis? Cousins?

Read the title thread!!!!!! You like many others say that the Hawks are done and won’t succeed in the near future. Don’t listen to me, how about listen to Clarko who doesn’t know much about footy. Hawks are not far from the top 4 sides, are on the right track and will soon be in a position again to challenge for more silverware.

Hawks have a number core players for the next 5-7 years that will allow this and whether it’s gaining the likes of Worpel/Lewis/Siss etc without ELITE draft picks and pick up a Brownlow medalist and other quality players through clever trading ..... it’s happening. I understand you like many others don’t like to hear this as the curators are still pulling out brown and gold confetti from the MCG turf. It’s just your bad luck that you like many others have been following the wrong team over the last 60 years. Tall poppy syndrome at its best by those that jump on hear after the Hawks lose games!

 

[Ron The Bear]

Read the title thread!!!!!! You like many others say that the Hawks are done and won’t succeed in the near future. Don’t listen to me, how about listen to Clarko who doesn’t know much about footy. Hawks are not far from the top 4 sides, are on the right track and will soon be in a position again to challenge for more silverware.

Hawks have a number core players for the next 5-7 years that will allow this and whether it’s gaining the likes of Worpel/Lewis/Siss etc without ELITE draft picks and pick up a Brownlow medalist and other quality players through clever trading ..... it’s happening. I understand you like many others don’t like to hear this as the curators are still pulling out brown and gold confetti from the MCG turf. It’s just your bad luck that you like many others have been following the wrong team over the last 60 years. Tall poppy syndrome at its best by those that jump on hear after the Hawks lose games!

I'm not saying they're done, nothing is a given. But history says they need to work some magic. How long can the Hawthorn brand retain its lustre?

Clarko will need all his sales skills to attract players looking for premierships.

 

[Scotland]

Plough's astute judgement of young talent is one of the main reasons Hawthorn had such a strong side until recently.

 

[MightyHawks]

Is making up the numbers competitive? If so you are one of a number of "competitive" teams.

.

I'd say this year most teams are competitive - it's a very even competition

Our % of 99.99% suggests we've been competitive

But no if you aren't in the top 5 or 6 sides then you aren't a contender

With the competition so even, it would be reasonable to suggest that it wouldn't take much to elevate a team from mid table this year to top 4 next year

In the last few years we've seen teams coming from outside the 8 to finish top 4 and play in Grand Finals - so it wouldn't surprise if a team did that again this year or next year would it?

 

[Pessimistic]

I'm not saying they're done, nothing is a given. But history says they need to work some magic. How long can the Hawthorn brand retain its lustre?

Clarko will need all his sales skills to attract players looking for premierships.

How well did the tigers, the magpies and even lions go attracting players while being middle of the road sides?
Dont tell us they were sides everyone thought they were the up cos they each very nearly lost their coach, and actually did in the case of brisbane

players going to clubs actually in the top 4 is still a minority

 

[Pessimistic]

And how’s your mob travelling since 2015 hang on wait in its history ...... still a big fat ZERO . Runners up are forgotten quickly let alone who ever wins or loses a prelim.

Probably the case study for building 'via the draft" (or not)

 

[Ron The Bear]

How well did the tigers, the magpies and even lions go attracting players while being middle of the road sides?
Dont tell us they were sides everyone thought they were the up cos they each very nearly lost their coach, and actually did in the case of brisbane

players going to clubs actually in the top 4 is still a minority

They were on the way up, age barely over 25 at worst. Hawthorn is clearly coming down the other side of the mountain.

History says premiership sides build up, not down.

 

[Pessimistic]

They were on the way up, age barely over 25 at worst. Hawthorn is clearly coming down the other side of the mountain.

History says premiership sides build up, not down.

its been well covered that age alone means teams rise, but that the top of the curve may fall well short.
Most expected the magpies and tigers of a few years ago to do just that, hence their coaches were on shaky ground for a while
They were able to 'sell' their clubs to prospective players. That was the point. it's not unknown

And your history only relates to the pure draft years, and that era is being diluted, it's just taking some a while to realise

 

[Scotland]

With the competition so even, it would be reasonable to suggest that it wouldn't take much to elevate a team from mid table this year to top 4 next year

In the last few years we've seen teams coming from outside the 8 to finish top 4 and play in Grand Finals - so it wouldn't surprise if a team did that again this year or next year would it?

This is an excellent point. We elevated from a 12 win side to win the flag. Brisbane have elevated from a 5 win side (89%, very high for a 5-17 record) and currently sit third at 13-5. They'll play finals and should finish top 4. It's eminently doable but are Hawthorn any more likely to do it than Western Bulldogs? Carlton? Port? North? Whoever? You can make a case that any of the teams in the bottom 10 will improve next year to be challenging for finals (except Gold Coast, sorry Gold Coast - too young and top end quality of 100 gamers not high enough) so no one set of supporters can think that they'll just improve and everyone else won't. Brisbane for example were already improving as a group and added Neale who is a star, and McCarthy, Adams, Lyons who have been handy. Carlton have won 5/7 (with two losses under a kick) since they punted Bolton. They have a pretty young team even with Simpson, Murphy, Thomas. A team like that following Brisbane's path and adding an established star in his prime could accelerate their rise...

The flip side to the even comp thing is that you can go both up and down a ladder. St Kilda thought they were going somewhere under Watters with a couple of middling seasons. They thought they were going somewhere under Richo with a couple of middling seasons. They weren't. Hawthorn, Melbourne, Sydney finished 4-5-6 last year. Where are they now? Adelaide made the GF in 2017, missed the finals last year and are clinging onto 8th by the poor performances of teams just below them.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

They were on the way up, age barely over 25 at worst. Hawthorn is clearly coming down the other side of the mountain.

History says premiership sides build up, not down.

And how many teams in history have tried to rebuild a list the way we are? You are using history to project our future based on teams and situations that are not the same.

 

[Scotland]

Port have added Lycett, Burton, Sutcliffe, Motlop, Rockliff, Watts, Thomas, Barry, Trengove, McKenzie, Dixon, Ryder, White, Monfries, Polec, Toumpas etc. in recent years. Do they stack up as a comparison? I reckon they peaked in 2014 and have been treading water since.

 

[Pessimistic]

being the oldest premier ever in 2015 is a very interesting starting point too.

 

[Ron The Bear]

its been well covered that age alone means teams rise, but that the top of the curve may fall well short.
Most expected the magpies and tigers of a few years ago to do just that, hence their coaches were on shaky ground for a while
They were able to 'sell' their clubs to prospective players. That was the point. it's not unknown

And your history only relates to the pure draft years, and that era is being diluted, it's just taking some a while to realise

No doubt free agency has changed the list management game, but the historical stats are still valid.

Of the last 50 teams to decrease in age in successive years, 15 played finals, 3 reached the top four and one won a flag.

If filtered for teams dropping in age by a full year over two seasons, you need to go back to 1914 Carlton to find a premier, and 1959 Essendon for a side finishing in the top four.

Premiership sides build up.

Hawthorn must face such a transition eventually, whether under Clarkson or the next guy.

 

[MightyHawks]

This is an excellent point. We elevated from a 12 win side to win the flag. Brisbane have elevated from a 5 win side (89%, very high for a 5-17 record) and currently sit third at 13-5. They'll play finals and should finish top 4. It's eminently doable but are Hawthorn any more likely to do it than Western Bulldogs? Carlton? Port? North? Whoever? You can make a case that any of the teams in the bottom 10 will improve next year to be challenging for finals (except Gold Coast, sorry Gold Coast - too young and top end quality of 100 gamers not high enough) so no one set of supporters can think that they'll just improve and everyone else won't. Brisbane for example were already improving as a group and added Neale who is a star, and McCarthy, Adams, Lyons who have been handy. Carlton have won 5/7 (with two losses under a kick) since they punted Bolton. They have a pretty young team even with Simpson, Murphy, Thomas. A team like that following Brisbane's path and adding an established star in his prime could accelerate their rise...

The flip side to the even comp thing is that you can go both up and down a ladder. St Kilda thought they were going somewhere under Watters with a couple of middling seasons. They thought they were going somewhere under Richo with a couple of middling seasons. They weren't. Hawthorn, Melbourne, Sydney finished 4-5-6 last year. Where are they now? Adelaide made the GF in 2017, missed the finals last year and are clinging onto 8th by the poor performances of teams just below them.

And Geelong have jumped up the ladder this year too

Will be interesting to see if this is the new normal over the next few years

But again the thread title is "Can Hawthorn succeed..."

It seems that you and I are both in the Yes camp, doesn't mean Hawthorn will win a premiership in the next few years with the current strategy but it's possible

 

[Pessimistic]

No doubt free agency has changed the list management game, but the historical stats are still valid.

Of the last 50 teams to decrease in age in successive years, 15 played finals, 3 reached the top four and one won a flag.

If filtered for teams dropping in age by a full year over two seasons, you need to go back to 1914 Carlton to find a premier, and 1959 Essendon for a side finishing in the top four.

Hawthorn must face such a transition eventually, whether under Clarkson or the next guy.

I said this before, your ratios sound very bad, but they are still significantly better than the total number of premierships divided by the total number of teams who set out to win them

(not to mention finals now being almost a half of the teams when it was 1/3 for most of the years

btw which team is this (can't be bothered researching all of them) I guess it proves both our points

1996 av 25y 53d--------1997 av 24y 286d ----------- 1998 av 25y 31d ----------------1999 av 24y 327d

 

[Ron The Bear]

And how many teams in history have tried to rebuild a list the way we are? You are using history to project our future based on teams and situations that are not the same.

Fair enough. But there's a point on the spectrum where money becomes the allure, more so than the prospect of playing in a premiership. If I was a player, I'd be questioning which zone the Hawks are in, at the very least.

If Clarko was to depart (which I suspect may happen - never trust Carlton), would the Hawks still be able to pull the players required to stay afloat?

Clarkson himself is coming to the end of his prime years; only seven older men have coached a flag. Does he spend them hoping he can ree-jig an ageing list for another tilt, or would the prospect of another big club ripe for rapid improvement tempt him away?

 

[stfan]

And your history only relates to the pure draft years, and that era is being diluted, it's just taking some a while to realise

What is a pure draft year? Was there every a year of the draft when players also did not swap clubs (I have not looked, but most years I can think of players have been swapping clubs)?

Players have been swapping clubs since the VFL first started. Players swapped clubs before the draft came along, and have certainly been still swapping clubs.

ie Cazaly played 99 games at two different teams.

Ian Stewart won flags and Brwonlows at two different teams.

Barrassi played at two clubs

 

[Pessimistic]

Are carlton making a ten year offer?

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Fair enough. But there's a point on the spectrum where money becomes the allure, more so than the prospect of playing in a premiership. If I was a player, I'd be questioning which zone the Hawks are in, at the very least.

If Clarko was to depart (which I suspect may happen - never trust Carlton), would the Hawks still be able to pull the players required?

Lose Clarko and everything changes 100%. Not only is he a great game day coach and have a proven track record of making players better it would also be major loss in attracting players as well. I just think he has given no reason for me to think he will leave. He could not have been stronger on this (i know he can't say he is leaving) and i think he is not the type of person who would up and leave half way through transitioning this list.

This will not be the first time Carlton has come for Clarkson and i would be shocked if he left. Until he leaves we can only assume that he will be apart of the clubs future.

 

[Pessimistic]

What is a pure draft year? Was there every a year of the draft when players also did not swap clubs (I have not looked, but most years I can think of players have been swapping clubs)?

Players have been swapping clubs since the VFL first started. Players swapped clubs before the draft came along, and have certainly been still swapping clubs.

ie Cazaly played 99 games at two different teams.

Ian Stewart won flags and Brwonlows at two different teams.

Barrassi played at two clubs

The general direction all you arguing that hawks need a full rebuild through the draft has only come about in the draft years. No one suggested full on rebuilds jettisoning all your older stars before that.

It has been pretty poor as an equalisation measure. theres at least half a dozen teams continually failing for every successful one. the seven or so years since GC and GWS have been going kind of underlines that.
No wonder the AFL is not so hot on it now