Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Ron The Bear]

I just think he has given no reason for me to think he will leave. He could not have been stronger on this (i know he can't say he is leaving) and i think he is not the type of person who would up and leave half way through transitioning this list.

I don't think he's given a strong indication either way. If he tells the club he believes he's taken the list as far as he can, they would probably come to terms.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

I don't think he's given a strong indication either way. If he tells the club he believes he's taken the list as far as he can, they would probably come to terms.

He has said publicly twice already this year that he is committed to Hawthorn and that has not changed. He also pulled the playing group in and confirmed once more that he has no intention of leaving and is 100% committed and just today had his manager come out and say


"I'll reinforce what I've been saying for months, that's he's fully committed to Hawthorn,'' said Henderson, who runs former cricket great Ricky Ponting's Foundation. Henderson said Clarkson was contracted until the end of 2022.
Internally, the Hawks have also received unequivocal commitments from Clarkson, who has told the players, the club board headed by Jeff Kennett, chief executive Justin Reeves and his football operations chief Graham Wright that he is committed to sticking with the club.

Clarkson also has been heavily involved in planning for next year and beyond - including discussions around staffing and recruitment of players from other clubs. Clarkson's involvement in planning for the future all but confirms that he has no intention of considering an approach from the Blues, even if the financial lure is massive."

 

[Luv_our_club]

I don't think he's given a strong indication either way. If he tells the club he believes he's taken the list as far as he can, they would probably come to terms.

His manager came out today and said any move was NOT happening and end of story.

 

[Scotland]

And Geelong have jumped up the ladder this year too

Will be interesting to see if this is the new normal over the next few years

But again the thread title is "Can Hawthorn succeed..."

It seems that you and I are both in the Yes camp, doesn't mean Hawthorn will win a premiership in the next few years with the current strategy but it's possible

Taking the premise completely literally the answer has to be yes.

I don't think it will work personally because the current team/squad isn't good enough to supplement with 1 or 2 more players and there's only so much trade currency and cap space you can give up. But that's just my opinion. I rated by own team a 5-8 contender and we won the flag. Wasn't that long ago there was some 'can they succeed with Rioli, Birchall etc' or something main board flog thread but that's passed, though Birchall is back after god knows how long he was out for. If you skew a list profile with older players there is an onus to succeed quickly. Draft a good player at 18 and they'll generally be at their best for a decent window from their early 20s. Bring in someone mid 20s or later and they should be at their peak but the cliff comes sooner. Hawthorn still have 9 players 30 or over on their list and if 2020/21 is the next target there will be a handful more. If the oldest premier in history had 6 players over 30 it seems unlikely that a team with 6, 8, 10 coming off a couple of ordinary seasons is likely to contend. But that's just age stats. Talent is the true measure.

 

[Ron The Bear]

The general direction all you arguing that hawks need a full rebuild through the draft has only come about in the draft years. No one suggested full on rebuilds jettisoning all your older stars before that.

It has been pretty poor as an equalisation measure. theres at least half a dozen teams continually failing for every successful one. the seven or so years since GC and GWS have been going kind of underlines that.
No wonder the AFL is not so hot on it now

The only reason for a rebuild is to mitigate a forecast period of decline. The club's hand is usually forced by natural attritiion/lack of success. Supporters don't want to watch a club becoming slowly less competitive by the year until they bottom out. The philosophy is to rip the band-aid off, so to speak, and start building up again. But it's prone to failure if the club doesn't have the right pieces in place.

 

[stfan]

And Geelong have jumped up the ladder this year too

Yes they have. I think they made the strategic choice to top and grab a flag while they can to make the most ofa strong core of good but getting old players, and have topped up with players like Rohan, Ablett back etc in recent years. Their window is now very much this year and 2020.

Of their 10 oldest players 7 (including Ablett) have come from other clubs.

To win a flag they would seem to have another year, maybe two, if their oldies can hang on, to get one before age really starts to bite.

Post 2021 they could be in deep trouble.

It will be interesting to see what strategy they take from this draft period on. You would think that they will go into 2020 with an old list too, but then after that will start to "re-tune" or "rebuild".

 

[Ron The Bear]

"I'll reinforce what I've been saying for months, that's he's fully committed to Hawthorn"

Sure, but he wouldn't be going back on his word if both parties came to an agreement.

Jimmy Hird said he wasn't interested in coaching for at least three years - right before the knife was plunged squarely in Knights' back.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Sure, but he wouldn't be going back on his word if both parties came to an agreement.

Jimmy Hird said he wasn't interested in coaching for at least three years - right before the knife was plunged squarely in Knights' back.

But what reason is there to think that will actually happen? These huge offers coming for him are nothing new and he didn't leave so why now? When looking at the future of Hawthorn i think until we are given a reason to think otherwise we need to assume it will be lead by Clarko.

 

[Ron The Bear]

And Geelong have jumped up the ladder this year too

Geelong is the benchmark IMO.

Look at the players introduced in the past two years - Kelly (25), Atkins (23), Ratugolea (21), Henry (20), Miers (20), Clark (18). Throw in Dahlhaus, Rohan and Ablett and there's nine new faces who are pretty much best 22 every week.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

But what reason is there to think that will actually happen? These huge offers coming for him are nothing new and he didn't leave so why now? When looking at the future of Hawthorn i think until we are given a reason to think otherwise we need to assume it will be lead by Clarko.

Would Hawthorn be better off without Clarkson?

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Would Hawthorn be better off without Clarkson?

No

 

[Ron The Bear]

But what reason is there to think that will actually happen? These huge offers coming for him are nothing new and he didn't leave so why now? When looking at the future of Hawthorn i think until we are given a reason to think otherwise we need to assume it will be lead by Clarko.

No other reason than it makes sense. It might not happen but I'll be the least surprised if it does.

 

[Sirlemsip]

Sure, but he wouldn't be going back on his word if both parties came to an agreement.

Jimmy Hird said he wasn't interested in coaching for at least three years - right before the knife was plunged squarely in Knights' back.

I couldn't think of a coach less like Clarko than James 'anything it takes' Hird

 

[Pessimistic]

The only reason for a rebuild is to mitigate a forecast period of decline. The club's hand is usually forced by natural attritiion/lack of success. Supporters don't want to watch a club becoming slowly less competitive by the year until they bottom out. The philosophy is to rip the band-aid off, so to speak, and start building up again. But it's prone to failure if the club doesn't have the right pieces in place.

Is is undisputably more likely to fail

 

[stfan]

The general direction all you arguing that hawks need a full rebuild through the draft has only come about in the draft years.

Others may be arguing that, I have not. All teams, all, will address their needs through the draft, trade and FA.

For me it is primarily deciding when a list needs a lot of reworking vs say just fine-tuning (topping up). Hawks seem to be charging on topping up a list which I believe needs more than just topping up.

While the Mitchell trade was a great one, the JoM and Wingard trades have expended a lot of resources for the value gained in.

Also I do not think it has in the main been clubs jettisoning their old players all at once, but more that the successful teams have more tended to have a batch of players all developing together often built around a core of stars, and then who not surprisingly also then tend to go in a short number of years.

 

[Pessimistic]

Geelong is the benchmark IMO.

Look at the players introduced in the past two years - Kelly (25), Atkins (23), Ratugolea (21), Henry (20), Miers (20), Clark (18). Throw in Dahlhaus, Rohan and Ablett and there's nine new faces who are pretty much best 22 every week.

Geelong, eight drafts since the last flag, hawthorn, four

 

[Pessimistic]

Others may be arguing that, I have not. All teams, all, will address their needs through the draft, trade and FA.

For me it is primarily deciding when a list needs a lot of reworking vs say just fine-tuning (topping up). Hawks seem to be charging on topping up a list which I believe needs more than just topping up.

While the Mitchell trade was a great one, the JoM and Wingard trades have expended a lot of resources for the value gained in.

Also I do not think it has in the main been clubs jettisoning their old players all at once, but more that the successful teams have more tended to have a batch of players all developing together often built around a core of stars, and then who not surprisingly also then tend to go in a short number of years.

Replacing the midfield is topping up?

 

[Ron The Bear]

Geelong, eight drafts since the last flag, hawthorn, four

Sure, but I'm talking about remaining at the top with an old list. Their relative lack of success in finals is curious and a separate issue.

2011 and 2015 are comparable starting points for the respective clubs, Geelong being the sixth-oldest premiership team, and the second-oldest since WW2 after 2015 Hawthorn.

 

[MightyHawks]

Yes they have. I think they made the strategic choice to top and grab a flag while they can to make the most ofa strong core of good but getting old players, and have topped up with players like Rohan, Ablett back etc in recent years. Their window is now very much this year and 2020.

Of their 10 oldest players 7 (including Ablett) have come from other clubs.

To win a flag they would seem to have another year, maybe two, if their oldies can hang on, to get one before age really starts to bite.

Post 2021 they could be in deep trouble.

It will be interesting to see what strategy they take from this draft period on. You would think that they will go into 2020 with an old list too, but then after that will start to "re-tune" or "rebuild".

Geelong is the benchmark IMO.

Look at the players introduced in the past two years - Kelly (25), Atkins (23), Ratugolea (21), Henry (20), Miers (20), Clark (18). Throw in Dahlhaus, Rohan and Ablett and there's nine new faces who are pretty much best 22 every week.

Geelong is an interesting one

Different views out there on them

And there are plenty of people who think that they won't be up to it in September either - but considering they are on the top of the ladder it looks like their recent decisions have been ok

And not to make the thread about Geelong, but I think we'll see a lot of differing strategies in terms of recruiting over the next few years

And when you go to assess the strategies themselves then the benchmark can't be did it get a Premiership or not

I think a very competitive preliminary final loss may be sufficient to say that your recruiting strategies were ok, or maybe 2 of those over a few years

For example St Kilda in 2009 and 2010 didn't win a premiership, but could you say that was the fault of their recruiting strategy? IMO they recruited fine and could have won a premiership or two with the list they had in 2009-2010

 

[stfan]

Replacing the midfield is topping up?

Targeting a couple of ready to go key players by sacrificing many draft picks to get them is topping up as you are doing it to try and win the flag now. It hurts as while you potentially are getting some quality that you are making it a lot harder to get the extra quality you also need. Hence hanging on to too many older players who are fading fast, or are now clearly past it.

It smacks of thinking you can win a flag this year or next which is very unlikely.

 

[Scotland]

Recent premiers:

2018: 6 traded/FA, 16 drafted
2017: 5, 17
2016: 2, 20
2015: 7, 15

Haw Rd 19, 2019: 8

Absent Mitchell, Impey, Scrimshaw. Targets Coniglio, Patton at least.

The record for most players who have previously played for another team is 19 set by the Brisbane Bears in 1987. If you discount any early Bears records and Essendon 2016 when half their list had a little holiday the record is 13 set by Collingwood in 2001. They made the GF the following year with 8.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Is is undisputably more likely to fail

There isn't enough quality to go around at 18 clubs, on field or off.

 

[Pessimistic]

Its deeper than topping up. Only those who love the argument say otherwise.

Like I said the kicker is needing to pay more for top players now, as less other teams are going the ‘rip off the bandaid’ approach as someone put it. The parts are harder to find, and will be even harder when such as gws stabilises their salary cap issues

 

[Pessimistic]

There isn't enough quality to go around at 18 clubs, on field or off.

And results are binary. Half the teams win, half lose

 

[Pessimistic]

Over six or seven years, in the best 22, a third will survive, a third will be drafted in, and a third will be traded.

This is the hawks and its classed as topping up too much.

But finding 14 players purely through the draft in 6 years plus development time? Good luck with that.

Even harder as a starting point as one of the oldest lists ever, not many in the seconds.