Opinion Can the Hawks make finals in 2024?

[excitingnews]

We’ve been playing seriously fast paced attacking brand of footy with a mostly makeshift forward line. We’ve added some serious mongrel with Watson and Ginnivan, brought back an experienced veteran in Gunston and improved on kozi with chol.
Sam has done absurdly well so far given the limited pieces available and I think we’re every chance to make finals if it clicks.

 

[Mitch75]

On paper, with the off season ins, we should find 15-20 extra points a game to put us in contention with the top 5-6 attacks in the comp. Can we also concede 12-15 pts a game less to be at least a middle of the road defence? That would have us at a percentage of about 105-110. These paper theories aside, a win in Round 1 against Essendon is a must. Could be the springboard we need for the rest of the season.

 

[grumbleguts]

Still some holes to fill. The final game of the season against middle of the road Fremantle was a reality check for us.

Just as much as the game against collingwood was.

 

[parsons nose]

A reality check is what Sydney got in last years grand final. It wasn't what we got against Freo when we had nothing to play for and they had to make a last ditch effort to make the deal for Jackson not seem quite so bad.

Nothing to play for except the joy of winning and the jumper of course. When you state we had nothing to play for you are presumably meaning being out of finals contention. Newsflash, we were out of finals contention as far out as the midpoint of the season. Would you be throwing up that excuse had we replicated our Freo form for the entire back half of the season? No mate, we were comprehensively outplayed by a team we were fancied to beat. And until we rectify that we won’t be adjudged as having made significant steps forward.

 

[KermitJagger]

Nothing to play for except the joy of winning and the jumper of course. When you state we had nothing to play for you are presumably meaning being out of finals contention. Newsflash, we were out of finals contention as far out as the midpoint of the season. Would you be throwing up that excuse had we replicated our Freo form for the entire back half of the season? No mate, we were comprehensively outplayed by a team we were fancied to beat. And until we rectify that we won’t be adjudged as having made significant steps forward.

I'm throwing up the "excuse" because we were the youngest team in the competition. We played out the season and won some good games, even with nothing to play for, but that just doesn't happen every game. Sometimes young sides have down games. Doesn't make it a reality check.

Port was a reality check. Freo was just a bad performance.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

$10 on Hawthorn to win the 2024 flag is easy money

 

[Rocket72]

I'm throwing up the "excuse" because we were the youngest team in the competition. We played out the season and won some good games, even with nothing to play for, but that just doesn't happen every game. Sometimes young sides have down games. Doesn't make it a reality check.

Port was a reality check. Freo was just a bad performance.

I had to reflect on the difference between reality check loss and bad performance loss. If we’d played well and lost to Freo, then that’d be worse. It was def more a bad performance loss.

 

[threesixpio]

Can we? Of course

Will we? Hmmm

Wouldn’t be surprised at all if we have a good 2024 but it will depend hugely on the forwards having a great preseason. Gunners leadership might be the master stroke to get this done - whether he plays or not - he will hopefully be a driving force to help the forwards structure well.

Mids can only get better and if Ward and Frenchy have a big year watch out.

Meanwhile we have a great defensive unit. I love Seamus and Weddle. They will cause havoc if they get going.

Sic is a Farkn beast. Want to marry him

Day is a fricken legend

Newcombe is a warrior

Farkn Go Hawks

 

[KermitJagger]

I had to reflect on the difference between reality check loss and bad performance loss. If we’d played well and lost to Freo, then that’d be worse. It was def more a bad performance loss.

Yeah that's what I was driving at. Port was a reality check because we were coming off a win against a higher placed side we usually struggled against but got blown off the park, the Dockers was a nothing game in the last round of the season where we'd already proved we had fight in us but that it was waning. Dockers had won 3 of their last 5, almost beaten Brissie and were competitive against Port - they had plenty more to prove, both to themselves that this season was an aberration and to the league that the Jackson deal for a future 1st wasn't n all time blunder.

 

[smish]

If we're serious we should put away Geelong & Richmond twice. The two obvious declining teams.

Sick of losing to Richmond.

Sick of losing to farken Freo of all teams as well.

Been a while since we've beat the GCS too I reckon.

 

[unitedhawk]

It was no more a reality check then it was a window into the minds of a bunch of players that were ready for the off-season.

What I found interesting after that result was Leigh Montagna saying on First Crack that Freo were miles ahead of us in terms of development, which raised David King's eyebrows because it was a pretty nonsensical thing to say.

It does seem like Joey, who also said earlier in the year the Hawks wouldn't make finals until 2027 and Sam wouldn't be our coach then, is doubling down on his dubious opinion on this particular matter. I respect his analysis in general, though, and am especially looking forward to him back-tracking on the Hawks in 2024 and beyond.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Kudos to whoever constructed the poll to reflect TMBG lyrics and/or a Malcolm in the Middle reference.

 

[Mercy Seat]

One thing I'll say is I bloody hope we do for Sicily's sake. If not next season, 25. Nearing 30 and has bled for the club. Missed out on 14 and 15, and has played 3 of 4 finals since, all losses. Really deserves it.

 

[cs61]

I think Ramsden coming on as a tall, hard running, hybrid ruck could change the whole dynamic of our list if he breaks out during the season. Especially given if and when he gets games he is going to be a nuisance given the top 2-3 defenders are going for Lewis, Chol and Gunston in the first instance. Our midfield was transformed last year by instead of having Newcombe carrying everyone, the load was shared between him Nash, Worpel and Day. The influx of Chol, Gunston, Watson, Ginnivan, and Ramsden/Butler entering their third years, is a huge amount of support for Lewis, Breust and Moore compared to last year. If Hickmott gets those forwards to click and play with synergy, we could see the type of improvement our midfield as a collective went through last year.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

What I found interesting after that result was Leigh Montagna saying on First Crack that Freo were miles ahead of us in terms of development, which raised David King's eyebrows because it was a pretty nonsensical thing to say.

It does seem like Joey, who also said earlier in the year the Hawks wouldn't make finals until 2027 and Sam wouldn't be our coach then, is doubling down on his dubious opinion on this particular matter. I respect his analysis in general, though, and am especially looking forward to him back-tracking on the Hawks in 2024 and beyond.

Joey is being fed Harvey's opinion

Same with Goddard etc (Newcombe ceiling comment)

Sour that he got the ass after his horrendous coaching effort with the mids

Wouldn't be coaching if St Kilda wasn't on a nostalgic binge

 

[Roddy]

I’m guessing 2024 will be this group’s 2006 - solid improvement on the previous year, 9-10 wins, 2-3 spots outside the 8, to be pushing into finals the year after.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

I’m guessing 2024 will be this group’s 2006 - solid improvement on the previous year, 9-10 wins, 2-3 spots outside the 8, to be pushing into finals the year after.

That’s my ‘safe bet’. My outside thought is that there are a bunch of teams on a cliff edge/middle of the road plodders who could really sink next year, which could see us rise further.

 

[unitedhawk]

Joey is being fed Harvey's opinion

Same with Goddard etc (Newcombe ceiling comment)

Sour that he got the ass after his horrendous coaching effort with the mids

Wouldn't be coaching if St Kilda wasn't on a nostalgic binge

I'm disappointed that Joey is relying on second-hand information rather than his own judgement, which is pretty good.

 

[peetoo]

That’s my ‘safe bet’. My outside thought is that there are a bunch of teams on a cliff edge/middle of the road plodders who could really sink next year, which could see us rise further.

They are mid 2006 now. End of 2024 could be 2007 equivalent

 

[HedgeFund]

We’ve been playing seriously fast paced attacking brand of footy with a mostly makeshift forward line. We’ve added some serious mongrel with Watson and Ginnivan, brought back an experienced veteran in Gunston and improved on kozi with chol.
Sam has done absurdly well so far given the limited pieces available and I think we’re every chance to make finals if it clicks.

Do you honestly think that coaching 45 games for 15 wins and 30 losses equates to doing “absurdly well”?

I think he has been reasonably good thus far, but no more than that.

After all, we finished 13th and 16th with percentages of 89.8 in 2022 and 80.2 in 2023.

Unless you felt we had the worst list in the AFL since Fitzroy 1996.

 

[Slainte]

Do you honestly think that coaching 45 games for 15 wins and 30 losses equates to doing “absurdly well”?

I think he has been reasonably good thus far, but no more than that.

After all, we finished 13th and 16th with percentages of 89.8 in 2022 and 80.2 in 2023.

Unless you felt we had the worst list in the AFL since Fitzroy 1996.

I am happy to endorse the "absurdly well" tag. It has nothing to do with win/loss ratio or percentage. It is about preparing the team for success. I was not on board on day one, but I feel very confident that Sam is on the right track.

 

[excitingnews]

Do you honestly think that coaching 45 games for 15 wins and 30 losses equates to doing “absurdly well”?

I think he has been reasonably good thus far, but no more than that.

After all, we finished 13th and 16th with percentages of 89.8 in 2022 and 80.2 in 2023.

Unless you felt we had the worst list in the AFL since Fitzroy 1996.

Clarko spent 5 odd years nuking the list in pursuit of another flag. I don't begrudge him for this as he had earned the right to try, but the list that Sam inherited was woeful.

Since Sam took over we have:

1. Avoided winning a spoon as many predicted.
2. Transitioned out older players and gone from the 9th oldest list at the end of 2021 to the second youngest going into 2024.
3. While we have had some blowouts, there has been clear improvement on field and an exciting game style for fans to follow.
4. Took signficant professional risk in trading both O'meara and Mitchell, backed in our young midfielders and took the worst performing midfield in the league to one of the better performing and promising.
5. Has (by all accounts) taken on additional respoinsibilities in seeking trades for players and convicning players from rival clubs to come over.
6. Created a significant pathway between Box Hill and the hawks, which has now netted us Newcombe, Ramsden and Blanck and was leading the charge to shift Nash to the midfield while he was still coaching Box Hill.

When Mitchell took over there was overwhelming doom and gloom from pretty much everywhere. He hadn't even coached a game yet and there were already questions as to how long he would last. Fans and pundits alike were predicting a Carlton/Melbourne-esque 5+ year rebuild. You can still go now to you "are hawthorn tanking" forum and see opposition fans disapointed at how underwhelming the "demise" of Hawthorn has been.

We had 7 wins this year, lost 2 mathches this year by under a goal, beat both the eventual grand finalists and above all else are playing seriously entertaining footy.
All that to say yeah i reckon Mitch has done absurdly well considering

 

[unitedhawk]

Do you honestly think that coaching 45 games for 15 wins and 30 losses equates to doing “absurdly well”?

I think he has been reasonably good thus far, but no more than that.

After all, we finished 13th and 16th with percentages of 89.8 in 2022 and 80.2 in 2023.

Unless you felt we had the worst list in the AFL since Fitzroy 1996.

If you're using stats to downplay the remarkably speedy turnaround Sam is orchestrating from the drab final year or three under Clarko, the first thing that comes to mind is the famous quote about "Lies, damned lies and statistics."

 

[Randy Campbell]

$10 on Hawthorn to win the 2024 flag is easy money

 

[Simon Crawshay]

If we're serious we should put away Geelong & Richmond twice. The two obvious declining teams.

Sick of losing to Richmond.

Sick of losing to farken Freo of all teams as well.

Been a while since we've beat the GCS too I reckon.

We have been GC bunnies for quite a while now.

Don't do well against GWS as well (especially in Sydney).

We really need to be beating sides like Freo and GC if we are to be taken seriously as a finals bound team.