Strategy Can the Saints make the finals this year?

[PoppedCorn]

Will make an elimination final

Get on us

 

[George]

Optimistic, but no point making finals when we are not ready to win them. We got Geelong not switched on after 3 tough weeks and up to now cant bring the pressure game away from Etihad. Would be happy to keep building, trade and draft well and have a run at the finals next year.

Your username says otherwise.

 

[dougiemac]

Premiers! Yay!

 

[VDS66]

We could win another 6 but percentage will work against us given the log jam mid table.

 

[TheBalls]

No and wish we weren't talking about this.

Just need to focus on the now. Massive game next week, our interstate form has been woeful and GC are playing better so need to put in as much effort as this week and not turn up like we need to just show up and win.

9-10 wins would be awesome and a push for finals next year

 

[saintastic]

For me more wins than losses from here will be enough this year. Last night's game, much like last year's draw, will keep me smiling until 2017. I don't think slipping in is possible given our percentage.

Watch me do an about face come round 22/23 and sitting 9th out on percentage!

 

[TheEnsign]

It's not realistic. Would require a perfect synchronicity of nightmare runs and % drops for WB and / or WC, plus poor performing (and % drops) for Port & Melb.

We're almost certain to drop one of Melb, Carlton & Richmond as these are frankly 50/50 games on our year to date form and it's not always going to go our way.

Also, no offence OP, but this is the opposite of the thinking we need right now. GC have shown a bit more the last couple of weeks and this screams danger game for us.

 

[VDS66]

Relax... a 10 goal smashing next week and this thread will go the way of the Dodo.

 

[Munga]

Just did the ladder predictor, not a problem...
I don't rate the Roos.




Gold Cost and Bombers wins. Demons danger game. Dogs maybe a loss. We MUST beat Roos round 19, the old 8 point game. Blues another danger game. Swans loss. Beat Tigers. Beat Lions.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Sold!

 

[VDS66]

Nah... Norf will hold 8th spot with 1 game clear whilst Richmond is preordained to finish 9th. 10th for us.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Nah... Norf will hold 8th spot with 1 game clear whilst Richmond is preordained to finish 9th. 10th for us.

As much as it would be funny to see Richmond come 9th again, have seen their draw? A lot harder than ours, so it will take a good effort for them to get there.

 

[RoundCubic]

Just did the ladder predictor, not a problem...
I don't rate the Roos.

View attachment 260841


Gold Cost and Bombers wins. Demons danger game. Dogs maybe a loss. We MUST beat Roos round 19, the old 8 point game. Blues another danger game. Swans loss. Beat Tigers. Beat Lions.

We can dream!!
I also continued the WC don't travel well so a shock Freo derby win could give us a 2nd way but my guess is that our rebuild will be book ended by 2 seasons of winning 12 games and not playing finals and for years after "footy journos" will say sure the Saints built a strong team but the rebuild took 5 years and we will all get annoyed and twitter rage about 12 wins and the close loses and the umps and the arrrggg.

Interestingly it may also mark the Kangaroos weak rise and fall beating the Saints to the 8 in 2012 and 2016.

 

[12Chill]

Don't think so, think we'll drop a game or two we expect to win.

But I'd love to win the next three against the Suns, Dons and Dees. Very winnable... and that puts us with 5 wins straight, and 7 out of our last 8 doesn't it? That's some serious form going into the Dogs clash, that's the main one I really want us to win. We did it last year, we can do it again.

These next 3 are so important, if we can pull those off and head into the Dogs game with confidence anything is possible.

After that we've got North who we pushed last time and they are a much worse side at the moment and hopefully they continue in that downward trajectory and have no wind left in the sails when we meet in Round 19.

Carlton after that. Sydney will likely be a loss, I rate them as the best side this year. Then the Tiges who are gradually playing better football we could lose as well, but again winnable.

Lions in the last round could be a serious percentage booster.

Basically have to win all games we' expect to win + 2 of Dogs, North, Tiges and Swans which is a big ask for a pretty inexperienced side. A lot of players are going to tire as the season progresses I think. One against those 4 sides might suffice but we'd need some serious luck with percentage.

But I think North is a serious chance to drop out.

Our draw vs Norths: (with my favourable predictions for us, predictions for North completely unbiased)

Saints: Gold Coast (w), Essendon (w), Melbourne (w), Bulldogs (w), North (w), Carlton (w), Sydney (L), Richmond (L), Brisbane (w)
North: bye (n/a), West Coast (L), Port Adelaide (w), Collingwood (w), Saints (L), Bulldogs (L), Hawthorn (L), Sydney (L), Giants (L)

That leaves us 1 game clear of North and in the top 8 against 5th placed Adelaide in the first week of finals. In a bid to never let what happen in round 11 happen again, we upset the Crows and then take on the Cats and filled with confidence from our Round 14 victory take another win in the semis only to face the Giants in the prelim, instead of playing just 3 quarters like last time we play a full game and win. GF vs Sydney (win, Sydney with the travel) or Bulldogs (win, we beat the dogs just a couple months earlier).

In all seriousness we'll drop one or two "sure things" and be left regretting the Hawks and North losses early in the season imo.

 

[Verdun66]

I did that ladder predictor thing earlier today and got us to 9th. And funnily enough we were breathing down North's neck.

I was reasonably optimistic. But who knows. A team currently in the eight might collapse. It's a big ask for us though to suddenly become consistent, but it's mathematically possible.

I'd be happy to keep building and challenge next year, but getting to a final would be great experience for the club.

One week at a time will be the mantra.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Pft, we'll win all 9 left, finish 6th, win our way to the Grannie, end it with Roo holding the cup, Crawford style : "Dats what I'm talking about!"

(seriously, not a chance in hell)

 

[Cornish]

Not interested in finals this year, i am only interested in improvement.

 

[Roadto2018]

It's funny, if we'd beaten north and hawthorn like we should've, we probably would make finals provided we don't drop one we shouldn't, how often would a team make the finals having lost by 103 and 88 points in the space of a month in the season? We'd probably end up at the adelaide oval if we did make it and get belted again. Think we'll end up on 12 wins which probably wouldn't get us there, but if we can grab the north game, who knows? either way, as long as we've improved come the end of the season, I'll be happy and so should everyone.

 

[MJ_Dogs]

Thought I'd add my 2c worth as I was doing a ladder predictor and was surprised to see the saints sitting 9th only 1 game out of the 8. You're every bit off a chance of making it - if you win all the games against sides out of the 8 and then pinch one against the dogs or north you'll make it - especially if you beat north as you'd be knocking them out of the 8. Now getting a win from dogs or north is not too far fetched. Nearly knocked off north this year and you've got us coming back from a game in the cairns heat - with your pressure game that could do us in.

Would need a lot to go right but it's not too far fetched to think you should beat Gold Coast, Brisbane, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond and Melbourne. Certainly a difficult task but not out of the realms of possibility. Would be an amazing effort.

 

[ozish]

I don't really rate us a chance to make the 8. When we were looking at our "Premiership Track" for 2018 before Round 1 last year, making the 8 was a dream result this year. Even to make the 8 next year, and then the top 4 with a shot at the flag in 2018 is a meteoric rise. But while it's mathematically possible it's nice to at least think about it.

I do have one strong opinion though - if we do happen to make the 8 this year, people *will* rate us for the finals, since we'll have a record of something like 11-3 for the last 14 rounds.

 

[Jack Stevens]

How's this for sliding doors. If anyone at AFL House had bothered to read a weather report, we may have played 3 NAB games like every other team, so we'd have started the season on a level playing field in regards to match fitness, and we would have had the same capacity to play out our round 1 game like any other team. We were up on Port by a goal at three quarter time.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I got Ninth down between StKilda, Melbourne and Carlton ( poor Richmond , i know they had a reservation ) with a fair gap to the 8.

 

[Tongue In Cheek]

It's an interesting one. North have the toughest run home out of all teams in the 8, and wins to Adelaide and West Coast next week would push North down to 7th. If they don't stop the rot someone will catch them. On the flip side, out of all of the teams in the pack at 9-13 we only face 3 top 8 sides, while Port and Melbourne face 4. Collingwood and Freo face 6, they're done for the year. Considering I thought we'd be lucky to hold onto 12th or 13th I'm feeling pretty optimistic about our prospects.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

On the weekend i heard some newsreader say "Richmond keep their finals chances alive by defeating the Lions".
If this is true then the Saints finals chances are also alive.

 

[PoppedCorn]

Not realistic???

Errrr we are just over half way
It certainly is realistic if it's possible
Teams above lose, we win

Totally realistic