Strategy Can the Saints make the finals this year?

[kosifantutti]

Just for giggles, where would we be on the ladder predictor if we won ALL our remaining games? I say this fully expecting it won't happen, but I'm just curious.

We would win the flag.

You did say winning ALL our remaining games.

 

[Verdun]

reckon we should not be getting ahead of ourselves and to state the bleeding obvious focus on this week and to be honest 2017

 

[Highlander35]

Try and win every game.

If that means finals, that's brilliant.

Otherwise, who cares. Regardless of internal expectations, we were wanting an increase in wins, and we're looking like picking up 9 at least, another 50% on last year, which is more or less exactly what I wanted.

 

[By a Point]

I did the ladder predictor and put us into he finals. I don't really care if we do play finals provided we continue with the styleof play we currently have, look to improve the list, get back injured and absent players and provide an engrossing spectacle for our members, supporters, attendees, audience and sponsors. Finals would just be the cherry on the cream on the cake.

 

[FQFjt]

Nothing like this being a live question in Round 15 of 2016 -- that is progress in itself.

Now, assuming we do sneak into 8th spot, we could end up facing the Dogs at Etihad in an elimination final. Quite winnable...

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Nothing like this being a live question in Round 15 of 2016 -- that is progress in itself.

Now, assuming we do sneak into 8th spot, we could end up facing the Dogs at Etihad in an elimination final. Quite winnable...

Can we have the grand final at Etihad on a Saturday night?

 

[thomas_m18]

$50 @ $34 says we can for me. When I put that on I thought we would beat Adelaide though...

All we need is belief. If we truly believe that we can do it than we can do it. This win should go a long way for our confidence, but I think we will just miss out.

We have to go for it next year. Not about this 2018-2020 life, next year get a good midfield recruit in, get the balances right around the ground and go for it. If we wait too long people will work us out and counter us. Just do it.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Nothing like this being a live question in Round 15 of 2016 -- that is progress in itself.

Now, assuming we do sneak into 8th spot, we could end up facing the Dogs at Etihad in an elimination final. Quite winnable...

Now, IF that happens, and IF one of the tough games we won to get there was the one against them, well...

 

[Strahany]

I think the only way it will occur is if the Saints win the 6 games that we are expecting them to win, beat North, AND Sydney decide to take it easy enough that an upset is caused, due to being a couple weeks out from the finals.

 

[freebloke]

I think the only way it will occur is if the Saints win the 6 games that we are expecting them to win, beat North, AND Sydney decide to take it easy enough that an upset is caused, due to being a couple weeks out from the finals.

Unlikely on the Sydney front, given the bye round after round 23. They'd be guns blazing %age aiming to get a top 2 spot.

 

[Strahany]

Unlikely on the Sydney front, given the bye round after round 23. They'd be guns blazing %age aiming to get a top 2 spot.

True, it would require an already confirmed top 2 spot alongside some niggling injuries which can be alleviated before finals.

 

[Glen Buterol]

A chance to take 8th spot & push North out. But we'd need to win 7, including beating North (classic 8 point game) & have North lose a couple of their 50/50 games).

 

[George]

Whilst everyone is saying we won't make it, it's really not out of the realms of possibility at all.

Provided we play similar to how we did on Saturday night or in any of our better games this year for that matter, we should dispose of at least five teams. There is absolutely no reason to suggest we won't beat the Suns, Bombers, Demons, Blues, and Lions. For the sake of this post lets set them aside as wins.

That brings us to 11 wins. In an 8 team finals competition no team has won 13 games and missed. So lets aim for 13.

We would need 2 more wins from the remaining games against the Bulldogs, Swans, Kangaroos and Tigers.

North are on the decline, Richmond are shaky even at their best. Bulldogs could be 50/50, and Swans will be a hard task but who knows?

If you look deeper into each individual match up and the run home itself, some of the things working in our favour are;

Our last 8 games are in Victoria.
We play 6/9 teams who are outside the eight.

vs Bulldogs (Round 18) at Etihad
Both with a 6 day break, however the Dogs are coming back from Cairns after playing the Suns.
Both of our games against the Dogs last year were close, having just won and just lost in our two encounters. We got smashed earlier in the year but provided we beat the Suns, Bombers and Demons in our previous 3 games heading into this one, we could run into this game with a head of steam having won 7 of our last 8 games.

vs North Melbourne (Round 19) at Eithad
We will be coming off a 7 day break, and North only a 6 day break. We've shown that we can take it up to North as we did earlier in the year and if not for a free kick late in the game the result could've been different. North aren't the team they were back in round 7, and have a horror end to the season - run home is Eagles, Port, Pies, Saints, Dogs, Hawks, Swans, Giants. A question we could ask ourselves is will the Roos give a few of their guys a rest heading into the biggest month on their calendar? To play potential top four teams after us could shape their position within the eight. Would they look to rest a few and get them ready for those? Remember the 6 day break could affect them heading in, or give them extra incentive to have a mini breather. Sure it'll be a hard game to win for us but these kinds of things have happened before. Whilst personally I find it hard tipping us here we need to have some faith, we've shown we can take it up to North, even back when they were firing. It's a different North side now.

vs Sydney (Round 21) at Etihad
This one is probably the toughest of the remaining fixture and I'd probably put a line through it already. We'll be coming off of a six day break having just played Carlton and it's against a side who are on fire. Swans have a 7 day break here, so it's going to be an uphill battle from the start.

vs Richmond (Round 22) at MCG
Well we come off a full 7 day break here whilst the Tigers come off of a 6 day break having just played Geelong. I think the Tigers season will be all but over at this point in the year so it could go one of two ways; Richmond come out to ruin another sides season, or they crumble. I think out of the four games I've listed, I think this is the easiest one to win. It's late in the year, Richmond don't look to be playing finals, and we play the MCG really well - evidenced by our game against Collingwood earlier in the year. Apart from Rance I don't see any of their defenders stopping McCartin, Bruce, Membrey and Riewoldt. Think it'll be too much.


I think we can pretty much rule out a win vs the Swans. So then it's two wins out of the Dogs, North and Tigers. I think we should beat Richmond. That'll give us 12 wins. For the final win to take us into the eight I think it makes sense to tip it against North. We have the extra day break, North don't look like a finals side at the moment and we've shown we can take it up to them.

I guess the non negotiables from our end would be quite simple;

. Consistency of effort
. Minimal injuries
. Maintain fatigue of our players late in the season

If we can do those three things well then it's going to go a long way to us getting thereabouts. I still wouldn't rule out the possibility.

And you know what? Even if we don't get the two wins we need to hit 13 on the season, 12 could still even do it. Only three times in the last 16 years has a team won 12 games and missed the finals. So the odds that we win 12 and make the finals are in our favour. We potentially may only need to win the one extra game to do it.

I know most of you didn't want this thread to be made but we've got to have some faith in the club. Look at what Richmond did in 2014. They were 3-10 after 13 rounds and made it. We are 6-7 after 13 rounds. Go to believe!

 

[Hayes4PM]

 

[austinnn]

Whilst everyone is saying we won't make it, it's really not out of the realms of possibility at all.

Provided we play similar to how we did on Saturday night or in any of our better games this year for that matter, we should dispose of at least five teams. There is absolutely no reason to suggest we won't beat the Suns, Bombers, Demons, Blues, and Lions. For the sake of this post lets set them aside as wins.

That brings us to 11 wins. In an 8 team finals competition no team has won 13 games and missed. So lets aim for 13.

We would need 2 more wins from the remaining games against the Bulldogs, Swans, Kangaroos and Tigers.

North are on the decline, Richmond are shaky even at their best. Bulldogs could be 50/50, and Swans will be a hard task but who knows?

If you look deeper into each individual match up and the run home itself, some of the things working in our favour are;

Our last 8 games are in Victoria.
We play 6/9 teams who are outside the eight.

vs Bulldogs (Round 18) at Etihad
Both with a 6 day break, however the Dogs are coming back from Cairns after playing the Suns.
Both of our games against the Dogs last year were close, having just won and just lost in our two encounters. We got smashed earlier in the year but provided we beat the Suns, Bombers and Demons in our previous 3 games heading into this one, we could run into this game with a head of steam having won 7 of our last 8 games.

vs North Melbourne (Round 19) at Eithad
We will be coming off a 7 day break, and North only a 6 day break. We've shown that we can take it up to North as we did earlier in the year and if not for a free kick late in the game the result could've been different. North aren't the team they were back in round 7, and have a horror end to the season - run home is Eagles, Port, Pies, Saints, Dogs, Hawks, Swans, Giants. A question we could ask ourselves is will the Roos give a few of their guys a rest heading into the biggest month on their calendar? To play potential top four teams after us could shape their position within the eight. Would they look to rest a few and get them ready for those? Remember the 6 day break could affect them heading in, or give them extra incentive to have a mini breather. Sure it'll be a hard game to win for us but these kinds of things have happened before. Whilst personally I find it hard tipping us here we need to have some faith, we've shown we can take it up to North, even back when they were firing. It's a different North side now.

vs Sydney (Round 21) at Etihad
This one is probably the toughest of the remaining fixture and I'd probably put a line through it already. We'll be coming off of a six day break having just played Carlton and it's against a side who are on fire. Swans have a 7 day break here, so it's going to be an uphill battle from the start.

vs Richmond (Round 22) at MCG
Well we come off a full 7 day break here whilst the Tigers come off of a 6 day break having just played Geelong. I think the Tigers season will be all but over at this point in the year so it could go one of two ways; Richmond come out to ruin another sides season, or they crumble. I think out of the four games I've listed, I think this is the easiest one to win. It's late in the year, Richmond don't look to be playing finals, and we play the MCG really well - evidenced by our game against Collingwood earlier in the year. Apart from Rance I don't see any of their defenders stopping McCartin, Bruce, Membrey and Riewoldt. Think it'll be too much.


I think we can pretty much rule out a win vs the Swans. So then it's two wins out of the Dogs, North and Tigers. I think we should beat Richmond. That'll give us 12 wins. For the final win to take us into the eight I think it makes sense to tip it against North. We have the extra day break, North don't look like a finals side at the moment and we've shown we can take it up to them.

I guess the non negotiables from our end would be quite simple;

. Consistency of effort
. Minimal injuries
. Maintain fatigue of our players late in the season

If we can do those three things well then it's going to go a long way to us getting thereabouts. I still wouldn't rule out the possibility.

And you know what? Even if we don't get the two wins we need to hit 13 on the season, 12 could still even do it. Only three times in the last 16 years has a team won 12 games and missed the finals. So the odds that we win 12 and make the finals are in our favour. We potentially may only need to win the one extra game to do it.

I know most of you didn't want this thread to be made but we've got to have some faith in the club. Look at what Richmond did in 2014. They were 3-10 after 13 rounds and made it. We are 6-7 after 13 rounds. Go to believe!

I'm optimistic in general and it's no different in this case.

We're in a lot better form than we were at the start of the year. We missed the game in preseason which caused us to lose our first game of the season and then when we played the Bulldogs, you might argue that the occasion of Roo's 300 match was too much pressure for some of the players. In basic terms, I believe St Kilda is in a much better position to play the Bulldogs in this moment and I'm even quietly confident we will beat them. The same with the Kangaroos, who are running out of form and will have been tested severely by the time we get to play them. We took it right up to them last time and I believe we have to potential to get over the line this time, assuming our form continues.

Conversely, games I'm less confident about include the Sydney game and to a lesser extent, the Dees, Blues and Tigers. Richmond always seem to pull up well for our games, no matter how poorly they are travelling. I think we'll probably beat Melbourne and Carlton, but they will give us scary moments and we'll need to be switched on at the start to avoid them getting a sizable jump on us.

Gold Coast this weekend looms as a litmus test: have we learnt our lessons about playing casually and underrating opposition? I think the fact that it's interstate will help us focus, we have to atone for our lousy travelling so far.

The key is our consistency. Now we've hit our stride how long can it be sustained before the younger players get tired?

I think we'll finish 8-9 personally but I have as little idea as anyone else.

 

[puppy_dog7]

We could very realistically leap frog the doggies after round 18 if we beat them..

Our next 4 weeks:
GC
Ess
Melb
Bulldogs

Dogs next 4 weeks:
Sydney
Richmond
GC
Saints

If we win all 4 which is very possible and they lose to Syd and Richmond then we will overtake them. Even if they beat Richmond they'll only be ahead on %

 

[cooperrules]

we wont the hawthorn and the north game we lost will be the difference.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Next year will be telling, we'll get a harder draw then.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

we wont the hawthorn and the north game we lost will be the difference.

So the umpires will have cost us a premiership the pricks.

 

[wolfpup]

just a hypothetical

if we miraculously make the finals, and Carlisle ban is over, is he allowed to play? Think he is allowed to train from sept 11th? Or have i misread comments from general meeting last night

 

[StMiles1]

just a hypothetical

if we miraculously make the finals, and Carlisle ban is over, is he allowed to play? Think he is allowed to train from sept 11th? Or have i misread comments from general meeting last night

He's allowed to train two months before he's allowed to play, so no in this case.

 

[Saintbloke]

I thought our wins against the Blues and Geelong showed that we are on the right track. If we blow the Suns game, then I reckon we have a longer way to go than we thinking. Tomorrow's game is really the line in the sand- after beating the top team, we need now to show we can clobber a bottom team.
Our midfield would need to absolutely be in top form if we want to beat the Dogs.

 

[Persevering Saint]

I thought our wins against the Blues and Geelong showed that we are on the right track. If we blow the Suns game, then I reckon we have a longer way to go than we thinking. Tomorrow's game is really the line in the sand- after beating the top team, we need now to show we can clobber a bottom team.
Our midfield would need to absolutely be in top form if we want to beat the Dogs.

Yep. Remember, our win against the Doggies last year came after they'd beaten Sydney in Sydney. They got ahead of themselves, we could too if we're not careful.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Yep. Remember, our win against the Doggies last year came after they'd beaten Sydney in Sydney. They got ahead of themselves, we could too if we're not careful.

I have a bad feeling about a flat performance against the Suns.

 

[freebloke]

I have a bad feeling about a flat performance against the Suns.

I have a good feeling that your bad feeling is just a feeling.