Strategy Can the Saints make the finals this year?

[freebloke]

Back in January I said anything but Finals would be a disappointment this year.

Well...

@ Gold Coast
v Essendon
v Melbourne
v Western Bulldogs
v North Melbourne
v Carlton
v Sydney
v Richmond
v Brisbane

That leaves us with 11 wins, then if we can knock off 2 of either North, Dogs, Swans or Tigers, we'll play finals this year. Unbelievable to think it's actually a reality.

I think at our best we can beat North and Richmond, and could give the Dogs a run.

Going to be a really interesting last couple of months of the season but ******* hell I'm proud of the effort the guys put out there last night. I said here earlier in the week that if we started well we'd be in for a good show and exactly that happened. Gresham was sublime, Stuv should be an AA this year, Riewoldt dominant again.

It's just such a good feeling seeing the players rewarded for their hard work. Some of the calls last night didn't go our way but we stuck fat and pulled it off anyway.

Now at 6-7 with the fixture blowing wide open for us, anything is possible. I hope they celebrate this win but make sure we take care of the next couple of weeks against the Suns & Bombers.

Just so proud to be a Saints supporter tonight, it's moments like these that make you proud to be a Saint. Onwards and upwards from here.

GJD23, great post there. I think it's really possible this year, but I have a big question on percentage here.

Optimistic Case: saints end up with 13 wins, being Gold Coast, Essendon, Melbourne, North, Carlton, Richmond and Brisbane. %age might come in to play in this case. However, the %age should also improve with the wins. So, it's a big question mark.

Average case: Saints end up with 10-11 wins. winning against the highlighted ones from your list.

Worst case: 8/9 wins, with dropping one of highlighted games, possibly against Melbourne.

So, my prediction is that it might be a case of just missing the 8, but happy to have a discussion with others.

I will say, that if we are in the hunt for the 13th win and %age in round 23, I expect Saints v Brisbane to be one of the last scheduled games (after Adelaide v West Coast). Look out Brisbane in Round 23 then, it will be an almighty barrage then!!

 

[Sir Skid]

Love the enthusiasm but I'll be taking it 1 week at a time and hoping we win each game.

 

[bird_man]

No

 

[freebloke]

It's amazing the attitude difference between the saint supporters, and some idiots at Carlton.

They won 3-4 games, and suddenly they thought they could make the grand final and win the premiership.

Saints supporters, have a real chance by beating teams they've beaten this year or have been competitive against, and everyone's discounting the chance!

 

[George]

GJD23, great post there. I think it's really possible this year, but I have a big question on percentage here.

Optimistic Case: saints end up with 13 wins, being Gold Coast, Essendon, Melbourne, North, Carlton, Richmond and Brisbane. %age might come in to play in this case. However, the %age should also improve with the wins. So, it's a big question mark.

Average case: Saints end up with 10-11 wins. winning against the highlighted ones from your list.

Worst case: 8/9 wins, with dropping one of highlighted games, possibly against Melbourne.

So, my prediction is that it might be a case of just missing the 8, but happy to have a discussion with others.

Typically 12 wins gets you in these days. Now there have been teams in the past who have got to 12 wins and still missed the eight, but in saying that however, it doesn't happen often. In the last 16 years, 3 teams have finished on 12 wins and missed the finals (Hawthorn in 2003, St.Kilda in 2012 and Port Adelaide in 2015). So typically if we were to get to 12 wins then we most likely WILL make the eight however I want to be sure of it so 13 would pretty much guarantee us that spot. From the teams already in the eight, I genuinely think North could miss out and West Coast as well. Other than that I think the rest are set. North have a tough schedule to end the year and the Eagles are too inconsistent.

It's going to be really interesting to see where the side goes from here. It's such a great character building win and all that hard work and sticking to Richo's game plan paid off last night. Players will be over the moon and should feel now that they are a genuine chance in any game. So if we beat the teams I mentioned then that gets us to 11 wins right there. Then going by what history tells us, we only need one more win to make it. We have four shots at getting that extra win, and it'll probably come against Richmond if anyone. We know we can match it with North, and who knows how they'll be tracking come that time. The real eye opener for me is that next Saturday is our last interstate trip of the year, with our final EIGHT games in Victoria. That is massive. We just have to beat the sides around us and get another scalp. I'd like 13 wins to be safe but 12 could do it as well.

I mean we've now won 4 of our last 5 games, we're actually getting into some good form and forming some great winning habits. Need to keep the foot on the pedal though and plough through the next month of footy - it's probably our biggest month of the year coming up now, if we can win the next three games vs Suns, Bombers, Demons and then manage to knock off the Dogs we will be laughing. We could head into the final month of the season at 10-7, even 9-7!

But lets not get ahead of ourselves...

 

[George]

It's amazing the attitude difference between the saint supporters, and some idiots at Carlton.

They won 3-4 games, and suddenly they thought they could make the grand final and win the premiership.

Saints supporters, have a real chance by beating teams they've beaten this year or have been competitive against, and everyone's discounting the chance!

I think our supporters are some of the most logical ones around. After years of disappointment we know how low it can get so I think we never really pump ourselves up too much because of the fact.

 

[freebloke]

I think our supporters are some of the most logical ones around. After years of disappointment we know how low it can get so I think we never really pump ourselves up too much because of the fact.

I understand, but its also worth believing in possibilities. Sometimes, always being reasonable means never giving what's possible a chance.

Believe in win

 

[Saintos The ITK]

Was hoping we wouldn't do this.

 

[Speck]

I think it's unlikely. We're just as likely to drop a game we should win as we were to win yesterday. Gold Coast next week is no simple task.

 

[freebloke]

Was hoping we wouldn't do this.

 

[t_94]

Pls close and delete this thread. One good win shouldn't mean you start drinking your own bathwater.

 

[sammm]

Pls close and delete this thread. One good win shouldn't mean you start drinking your own bathwater.

Just like the thread about how we gad no injuries. In the next week we suddenly had 4

 

[Gunplay]

Our form is all over the place though. If we play like we did last night we can beat anyone on the day but we're just as likely to get toweled up by the Suns next week and back to scratching our heads.

 

[freebloke]

So much confirmation bias in you all

 

[CHBench]

This board and it's jinx threads, wowee

 

[Sir Skid]

This board and it's jinx threads, wowee

Zachary!

 

[Impatient Saint]

Optimistic, but no point making finals when we are not ready to win them. We got Geelong not switched on after 3 tough weeks and up to now cant bring the pressure game away from Etihad. Would be happy to keep building, trade and draft well and have a run at the finals next year.

 

[plugger66]

Because there are 4 bad sides this year you will need 13 wins at least and a good percentage so no we cant make finals but 10 wins now looks certain which is massive improvement.

 

[Jade Buddha]

Just keep improving that's all I ask.

We're a work in progress and when we can bring last night's effort and intensity most weeks then we should expect wins but finals need to be down the list until we can.

 

[SK_MD_#7]

This year? Nope.

Next year? Definitely will be in the hunt big time if we keep up on the last two weeks performances.

 

[aussierulesrules]

We certainly can, but I doubt massively that we will, because it looks like you'll need to win 13 games to get in and that would be a huge ask.

Had a look at the draws of the teams in contention for 9th on the way home from the game and I do think we're the best bet to finish 9th though, with teams like Port, Richmond, Melbourne and Collingwood all having what looked to be more difficult draws than us.

Big test this week though, as Gold Coast are much, much closer to full strength now than they were earlier in the year and will be really going all out to win their first game in about 3 months. Need to make sure we didn't "play our grand final" last night.

 

[cartel]

No, and I think we would be making up the numbers if we did.
The main benefit I would see in making it is commercial.

Geelong performance needs to be taken in context with WCE and Adelaide performances. Last night was certainly encouraging, especially with the spread of contributors.

Next year is when a finals push should start in earnest, as most others have said in this thread.

 

[Jack Stevens]

The only way we make the 8 from here is if we do a Bradbury. The divide between 8th and 9th is just too great, and the lower top 8 sides have fairly easy runs themselves.

I think we're doomed to do a Richmond. Late run of very good form, but left too late in the year. Those early, close losses to Port, Hawthorn and North will haunt us.

But, hey, finals was always a pipe dream. I think we'll finish 9th or 10th with 12 wins, which is a huge improvement.

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

it looks like even this Cat was wrapt with last nights win

 

[BillingsStar]

These are the sorts of threads that opposition fans laugh at, and we laugh at if created on another teams board.

We will fall over a couple more times in winnable games this year, but I like the signs.