Preview Changes and Preview Brisbane vs Ports @ Gabba, qualifying final thread

[EskimoPAFC]

I totally agree.

If you ask yourself who would you rather have 8 possessions McEntee or Fantasia then you have your answer.

DBJ plays a similar role to Jed, is having two very defensive forwards more important than having 2 potential match winners in Orazio and Willie?

This decision could be the difference between a home prelim or not.

Given our record in home prelims I'm not sure this choice is easy.

 

[Chachi]

Given our record in home prelims I'm not sure this choice is easy.

Haha. Problem is our away prelim record is worse.

 

[TeeKray]

I totally agree.

If you ask yourself who would you rather have 8 possessions McEntee or Fantasia then you have your answer.

DBJ plays a similar role to Jed, is having two very defensive forwards more important than having 2 potential match winners in Orazio and Willie?

This decision could be the difference between a home prelim or not.

A match winner and the difference between a home prelim or not.

If you're just catching up with this thread, no we're not talking about Connor Rozee, Zak Butters or Jason Horne-Francis. No. Orazio Fantasia. Yeah, that skinny fat guy who has played 3 games in 2 years. He's going to be THE difference.

 

[Schulzenfest]

A match winner and the difference between a home prelim or not.

If you're just catching up with this thread, no we're not talking about Connor Rozee, Zak Butters or Jason Horne-Francis. No. Orazio Fantasia. Yeah, that skinny fat guy who has played 3 games in 2 years. He's going to be THE difference.

And yet despite the above he still has a more recent 3 goal or more performance under his belt than your mate. In a Qualifying Final, no less.

I'll take someone who hasn't been a match winner since 2021 over someone who is not, was not and never will be a match winner every day of the week.

 

[Chrizzt]

A match winner and the difference between a home prelim or not.

If you're just catching up with this thread, no we're not talking about Connor Rozee, Zak Butters or Jason Horne-Francis. No. Orazio Fantasia. Yeah, that skinny fat guy who has played 3 games in 2 years. He's going to be THE difference.

Look, I get the hyperbole seems a bit silly.

But the way I look at our position right now is that we have a mediocre defence and pretty good attack. There's pretty much nothing to do but hope that our defence can improve for finals, but we have a real opportunity to boost our attack with the inclusion of Fantasia. If we can't stop our opponents scoring 80 points, we just have to make sure we have the ability to hit 100 points.

 

[Chachi]

A match winner and the difference between a home prelim or not.

If you're just catching up with this thread, no we're not talking about Connor Rozee, Zak Butters or Jason Horne-Francis. No. Orazio Fantasia. Yeah, that skinny fat guy who has played 3 games in 2 years. He's going to be THE difference.

I probably should've bolded 'could'.

 

[TazD]

Got to risk it to get the biscuit. To quote Alec Baldwin in Glengarry "its time to **** or walk gentlemen"

 

[bomberclifford]

So we're bringing in all of; Lycett—after a month off recovering from surgery; McKenzie—after a month off from a knee injury; Marshall—after two weeks off due to hip? injury; and now also Fantasia—who was last seen in an AFL game in our RD 3 loss to the Crows, where he had a 5 possession, 1 goal game with 29% TOG coming off the bench as the sub.

That's way too many changes to bring in underdone players.


Marshall is an easy in. I get that. Lock that away.
McKenzie is a mild risk but offers much more than Jonas in the same role. Ok, let's lock this one in as well.
Lycett is a risk and only a marginal upgrade to Hayes, even given Sam's last game. Not a lock but leans towards Lycett being an in.

But then we have Orazio.
He is a huge risk given his injury and fitness issues over the last two years. We've got Evans currently in the same role who has kicked 7 goals in his last two games, and Rioli who is starting to look like he'll provide some x-factor with his finals experience.

Hope he proves me wrong, if we do go back to this well.
I just can't see it though.

 

[JimmyBC]

So we're bringing in all of; Lycett—after a month off recovering from surgery; McKenzie—after a month off from a knee injury; Marshall—after two weeks off due to hip? injury; and now also Fantasia—who was last seen in an AFL game in our RD 3 loss to the Crows, where he had a 5 possession, 1 goal game with 29% TOG coming off the bench as the sub.

That's way too many changes to bring in underdone players.


Marshall is an easy in. I get that. Lock that away.
McKenzie is a mild risk but offers much more than Jonas in the same role. Ok, let's lock this one in as well.
Lycett is a risk and only a marginal upgrade to Hayes, even given Sam's last game. Not a lock but leans towards Lycett being an in.

But then we have Orazio.
He is a huge risk given his injury and fitness issues over the last two years. We've got Evans currently in the same role who has kicked 7 goals in his last two games, and Rioli who is starting to look like he'll provide some x-factor with his finals experience.

Hope he proves me wrong, if we do go back to this well.
I just can't see it though.

The question is do you really think Evans will do anything in a final?

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

I'd be onboard for Fantasia as the sub. Limits the risks whilst maximising the payoff.

Realistically, if he does do something its probably going to be like what he did in the SANFL where he kicks 3 goals in three minutes. I'm not expecting a 4 quarter effort.

It does mean a Duursma or Boak miss out though. Duursma out is probably no great loss.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

I say we play McEntee, Fantasia and Evans

Finlayson and Rozee can take a week off. Butters not shooting the lights out either and needs to be given his last warning.

 

[PowerBaz]

As opposed to playing McEntee and being a player down for the whole game?

Yeah but they see that as a 'role' amongst a team don't they.

I like Evans personally, every time he kicks 1 goal he tends to kick multiple in a game, and he's hard at it. After kicking three in the last game he will probably get dropped like he did last time he kicked three. I'd play him over the cheese.

Orazio is a totally different player. Don't get me wrong, I bet we could see him if we lose this week.

 

[JimmyBC]

I'm surprised you are all so unwilling to take a risk, the guy(s) Fantasia could potentially replace are not winning you a final anyway. Vanillarization complete.

 

[Willsy10]

Was it Evans that came in for Marshall last week? Meaning we went with a smaller forward line? So essentially Marshall comes back in for Evans/McEntee (reverting back to previous structure) or do we keep both smalls and bring Marshall in for Lord?

I'm leaning towards the former structure as the Richmond game was far from a roaring success but at the same time it were our smalls who kicked most of our goals.

I assume Lycett comes in for Hayes and Mckenzie for Jonas but i'm a bit confused with who Marshall comes in for.

I doubt fantasia is even getting considered unless we have injuries at training this week.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

So we're bringing in all of; Lycett—after a month off recovering from surgery; McKenzie—after a month off from a knee injury; Marshall—after two weeks off due to hip? injury; and now also Fantasia—who was last seen in an AFL game in our RD 3 loss to the Crows, where he had a 5 possession, 1 goal game with 29% TOG coming off the bench as the sub.

That's way too many changes to bring in underdone players.


Marshall is an easy in. I get that. Lock that away.
McKenzie is a mild risk but offers much more than Jonas in the same role. Ok, let's lock this one in as well.
Lycett is a risk and only a marginal upgrade to Hayes, even given Sam's last game. Not a lock but leans towards Lycett being an in.

But then we have Orazio.
He is a huge risk given his injury and fitness issues over the last two years. We've got Evans currently in the same role who has kicked 7 goals in his last two games, and Rioli who is starting to look like he'll provide some x-factor with his finals experience.

Hope he proves me wrong, if we do go back to this well.
I just can't see it though.

I am quite worried about the changes to the team as well.

Like you've said, Marshall is a no brainer.
McKenzie in for Jonas is fair enough.
After that, I don't know.

 

[PowerBaz]

The question is do you really think Evans will do anything in a final?

You can say this about any player can't you? I don't mind Fantasia but can't see them risking it tbh.

 

[Ports1870]

I’m leaning towards going

In: Marshall, McKenzie, Lycett, Fantasia
Out: Lord, Jonas, Hayes, Evans/McEntee
Williams in the 23, Boak to sub.

Feel like whilst I hate changing the 3 tall structure going into finals, we have more goal scoring in the side playing a smaller team this week. Will be very interesting to see how the team gets selected.

 

[JUSTWORK]

IN
Lycett, Fantasia, McKenzie, Marshall

OUT
Hayes, McEntee, Jonas, Evans

Williams into the 22, Boak to sub.

 

[Janus]

Here's the best case to play Fantasia that I've seen.

Brisbane

STRENGTHS: The Lions have a set of strengths that line up nicely with recent premiers, ranking No.1 for average points scored from turnover (55.6) and second for points conceded from turnover (41.2). The last three premiers have been No.1 for points from turnover differential, with the Lions leading the AFL this season (+14.4). Chris Fagan's men own the territory game as well, ranking No.3 for time in forward half differential and No.1 for inside 50 differential (+8.8). They lock the ball in their half and rank No.2 for points from forward half stoppages and points from forward half intercepts. It adds up to a potent offensive game, with the Lions ranking No.2 for points for (94.8) and converting inside 50s to scores (46 per cent).

WEAKNESS: Groundball in defence is Brisbane's weakness and they are the only team in the competition to not win more groundballs in their backline than the opposition.

Port Adelaide

STRENGTHS: Led by their young stars in the midfield, the Power are the No.1 team in the AFL for points from centre bounce differential. Like the Lions, they get the ball forward and are able to lock it in their attacking half, also ranking No.1 for time in forward half differential. Ken Hinkley's team has had 22.3 stoppages and won 32.8 intercepts in its forward half (No.1) and scored 55 points a game from forward half chains (No.1). Overall offensively, the Power have scored 93.4 points per game this year (No.3), hitting the scoreboard from 45.5 per cent of their inside 50s (No.5).

WEAKNESS: Goal conversion is Port's weakness, recording a shot at goal accuracy of just 46.1 per cent this season (No.15), while their shot at goal kick rating of -2.1 per cent ranks No.14.

So Brisbane's weakness is the ball being on the ground because they love playing a three tall backline. I'd put Fantasia in the side ahead of Lord and have him line up at deep forward in the old Robbie Gray

9

Robbie Gray

Age

38

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.4

5star

D

13.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

4star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

spot and tell him he's not to leave the forward 50 under any circumstances, then instruct our mids to move the ball quick and kick to grass in the forward 50.

 

[Powerade 08]

Evans will be sub over Fantasia

 

[JimmyBC]

Evans will be sub over Fantasia

Yuck

 

[Schulzenfest]

Here's the best case to play Fantasia that I've seen.

Brisbane

STRENGTHS: The Lions have a set of strengths that line up nicely with recent premiers, ranking No.1 for average points scored from turnover (55.6) and second for points conceded from turnover (41.2). The last three premiers have been No.1 for points from turnover differential, with the Lions leading the AFL this season (+14.4). Chris Fagan's men own the territory game as well, ranking No.3 for time in forward half differential and No.1 for inside 50 differential (+8.8). They lock the ball in their half and rank No.2 for points from forward half stoppages and points from forward half intercepts. It adds up to a potent offensive game, with the Lions ranking No.2 for points for (94.8) and converting inside 50s to scores (46 per cent).

WEAKNESS: Groundball in defence is Brisbane's weakness and they are the only team in the competition to not win more groundballs in their backline than the opposition.

Port Adelaide

STRENGTHS: Led by their young stars in the midfield, the Power are the No.1 team in the AFL for points from centre bounce differential. Like the Lions, they get the ball forward and are able to lock it in their attacking half, also ranking No.1 for time in forward half differential. Ken Hinkley's team has had 22.3 stoppages and won 32.8 intercepts in its forward half (No.1) and scored 55 points a game from forward half chains (No.1). Overall offensively, the Power have scored 93.4 points per game this year (No.3), hitting the scoreboard from 45.5 per cent of their inside 50s (No.5).

WEAKNESS: Goal conversion is Port's weakness, recording a shot at goal accuracy of just 46.1 per cent this season (No.15), while their shot at goal kick rating of -2.1 per cent ranks No.14.

So Brisbane's weakness is the ball being on the ground because they love playing a three tall backline. I'd put Fantasia in the side ahead of Lord and have him line up at deep forward in the old Robbie Gray spot and tell him he's not to leave the forward 50 under any circumstances, then instruct our mids to move the ball quick and kick to grass in the forward 50.

Drop Lord for him and those freed up three tall defenders will take a billionty intercept marks and the ball will never get to ground for Fantasia to do anything.

There's one obvious choice to drop for Fantasia, and it's been obvious to everyone but our coaching staff for at least the last two months.

 

[Poo Eckert]

I don’t mind kicking to grass strategy. I don’t like Fantasia either but I’d give him a crack unless it will divide the team. He should have played against Richmond.

Jonas last two games have been okay and I’d only play McKenzie if fully fit or he waits another week

 

[JimmyBC]

I don’t mind kicking to grass strategy. I don’t like Fantasia either but I’d give him a crack unless it will divide the team. He should have played against Richmond.

Jonas last two games have been okay and I’d only play McKenzie if fully fit or he waits another week

Jonas was terrible against Richmond, there was about 5 clear the game has gone past him moments.

 

[Poo Eckert]

Jonas was terrible against Richmond, there was about 5 clear the game has gone past him moments.

Okay I didn’t bother watching that game