Unofficial Preview Changes round 14 vs Adelaide

[bigbulldog67]

The average speed means very little when it’s only about 30% of top-end speed with an average of 10.1km/hr being a pretty leisurely jog especially for a professional athlete.

There was a comment made by bigbulldog67 that it favours low ToG players that I don’t think is right, but being low ToG does mean he’s more likely to have a sampling difference vs the game overall in terms of mixture of stoppages vs free flowing, and that can meaningfully skew a small ToG average. He’s probably more likely than most to have a really low average speed in any other given week.

Im no expert on the tracker by any means but what I meant by that it favours low TOG players is that avg speed is averaging out all their movement on field ie standing still, walking, jogging, sprinting etc.

I’d guess that your vast majority of time on a footy field is spent in a lower speed activity, so I’d expect a player with lower TOG to have a higher avg speed just by default of not being on the field accumulating ‘low speed’ time as much as others which would drag their avg down.

Plus the obvious advantage that they should be spending majority of their short TOG refreshed and hitting higher speeds rather than managing on field inbetween stints.

It checks out when you look at the guys who are always in this for us, outside of Hynes on the wing (spends a lot of time in transition) they’re all 60-70% TOG guys ie Jaques, Croft, Emmett when he played, Kennedy when he had really low TOG games, Gags, Baker, Dolan etc

The tracker overall gives us **** all info really with the top 5 and not near enough of a picture, some of the trackers better than others but i definitely wouldn’t be using avg speed to give any indication on someone’s running impact whatsoever. I’d take much more stock out of sprints & high speed distance

 

[grassman75]

Against Adelaide they have sometime exposed our height in defence.

McNeil out for Libba in is easy.

But Bevo might want to get more high in (I doubt it) but if he did then options:

May comes in Lobb goes back.

Buss comes in - Lobb stays as ruck forward.

Hard to know who to drop but probably Bramble or Trelor.

Love Trelor but if Libba comes back we can have him in the guts and if hit there then his limited running ATM..

Bramble was pretty good bringing the ball out with Dale and Buderick but Buss is a good ball mover so may another option.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see May debut. It would be typical Bevo to give him a run in front of his family (assuming they are in Adel cos he’s originally from Syd)

 

[Dog 36]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see May debut. It would be typical Bevo to give him a run in front of his family (assuming they are in Adel cos he’s originally from Syd)

The game is in Melbourne

 

[grassman75]

Treloar was looking for the easy, cheap possession too much vs Hawks. On one of Red's turnovers he put the ball into the position Treloar should have been running into but he'd already turned towards goal looking for a cheapy.

I still think he brings value to the team, but he can't be doing that stuff.


I like Buss coming in as a bigger defender but wary of the ball use in the back half. I still think Buku gets caught out too much defensively and for me if Buss comes in, a decision needs to be made on Buku vs Coffield. Tough one.


I also liked Cleary's performance in the team before he went out. wouldn't mind him back in at some point. But it is getting hard to see where these positions will be coming from.

I missed the start of the Dees game but not sure what Cleary did that was so special. 3 handballs before being concussed.

Am I missing something?

 

[grassman75]

The game is in Melbourne

Oh haha, I’m just so used to going to Adel this year I thought we were playing there again….

 

[doggiesin08]

Im no expert on the tracker by any means but what I meant by that it favours low TOG players is that avg speed is averaging out all their movement on field ie standing still, walking, jogging, sprinting etc.

I’d guess that your vast majority of time on a footy field is spent in a lower speed activity, so I’d expect a player with lower TOG to have a higher avg speed just by default of not being on the field accumulating ‘low speed’ time as much as others which would drag their avg down.

Plus the obvious advantage that they should be spending majority of their short TOG refreshed and hitting higher speeds rather than managing on field inbetween stints.

It checks out when you look at the guys who are always in this for us, outside of Hynes on the wing (spends a lot of time in transition) they’re all 60-70% TOG guys ie Jaques, Croft, Emmett when he played, Kennedy when he had really low TOG games, Gags, Baker, Dolan etc

The tracker overall gives us **** all info really with the top 5 and not near enough of a picture, some of the trackers better than others but i definitely wouldn’t be using avg speed to give any indication on someone’s running impact whatsoever. I’d take much more stock out of sprints & high speed distance

The bold highlighted is not how averages work though. It’s just total distance covered divided by the ToG (converted to a km/h metric). You also have less ToG to do all of the sprinting that drags the average up. The point about being theoretically more refreshed does make sense.

The smaller sample size is the key point though. It’s a well established statistical principle that small samples tend to show the greatest variation from the average. I won’t praise him for having the highest average speed, nor would I be critical if he had the lowest.

 

[TiAn_]

I think the point being made is you had referenced data that was not particularly relevant to actually counter the alternate perspective.

No-one has said “He’s running 2km/h too slow” or “He’s not above 20 others”. The observations are he’s low ToG, low pressure acts and people are referencing specific events that hurt the team: run past by Ginnivan, rushing his snap, ignored by teammates in transition.

Well no one would know is my point, we only get a handful of players each week for those tracker data points. All we do know for Treloar is that when he’s on the ground he’s apparently covering it comparatively well, even if his running gait looks impeded (although that has improved tenfold since the Swans game).

On Friday he had 9 pressure acts from 58% TOG. One a per minute basis that’s either ahead of or comparable to Cooper Hynes & Arty Jones, who also had 1 and 2 tackles each. And I thought those two did their job.

I think the broader conversation has been comparing what he offers to the other half dozen options, the main point being made that it’s not just Libba to replace McNeil, but rather someone else needs to replace McNeil and Libba replaces Treloar. I would prefer Jaques, Dolan or Kennedy and I would not prefer Baker (current form), Davidson (current form) or Gags (ever). My preferences do not consider at all how important it is for the broader group to have more experienced blokes in and around the team vs too much youth.

That’s what I’m focusing on. There’s a trade off for every option when you’re talking about the last half dozen picked.

I think the experience consideration is an important one for us at the moment. We’ve skewed very young out of necessity at times this year and I think it has hurt us. Although he whiffed on the snap late which nearly caused me to launch off the Level 2 balcony in the Members, he’s had the composure to nail a goal each of the last two weeks.

 

[doggiesin08]

Well no one would know is my point, we only get a handful of players each week for those tracker data points. All we do know for Treloar is that when he’s on the ground he’s apparently covering it comparatively well, even if his running gait looks impeded (although that has improved tenfold since the Swans game).

On Friday he had 9 pressure acts from 58% TOG. One a per minute basis that’s either ahead of or comparable to Cooper Hynes & Arty Jones, who also had 1 and 2 tackles each. And I thought those two did their job.

That’s what I’m focusing on. There’s a trade off for every option when you’re talking about the last half dozen picked.

I think the experience consideration is an important one for us at the moment. We’ve skewed very young out of necessity at times this year and I think it has hurt us. Although he whiffed on the snap late which nearly caused me to launch off the Level 2 balcony in the Members, he’s had the composure to nail a goal each of the last two weeks.

Agree on the experience and it’s a fair point on pressure acts. If Libba isn’t back in I think Treloar stays.

I do wish we actually got the full tracking data. Then I’d be able to understand how Treloar can average 10.1km/h in attack and 9.6km/h in defence somehow average to 10.1km/h overall … must be doing almost all of his movement in attack!

 

[TiAn_]

Agree on the experience and it’s a fair point on pressure acts. If Libba isn’t back in I think Treloar stays.

I do wish we actually got the full tracking data. Then I’d be able to understand how Treloar can average 10.1km/h in attack and 9.6km/h in defence somehow average to 10.1km/h overall … must be doing almost all of his movement in attack!

Haha I noticed that too, there’s definitely some anomalous stuff in there

 

[bigbulldog67]

The bold highlighted is not how averages work though. It’s just total distance covered divided by the ToG (converted to a km/h metric). You also have less ToG to do all of the sprinting that drags the average up. The point about being theoretically more refreshed does make sense.

The smaller sample size is the key point though. It’s a well established statistical principle that small samples tend to show the greatest variation from the average. I won’t praise him for having the highest average speed, nor would I be critical if he had the lowest.

Yeah that’s not different to what I said in regards to how it works? Total distance at certain speeds averaged out.

What I’m saying is that the vast majority of your time on a footy field is spent at low speed. Ie standing around whilst a player takes 40 seconds for a set shot, stoppages, manning ground in a zone etc. obviously there’s a hell of a lot more minutes of low speed than high speed, so extra TOG is going to dilute your avg speed even if you’ve done more high speed running overall than the lower tog player

Anyway honestly who gives a ****, getting a headache thinking about it

 

[grassman75]

Ryan Gardner had 12 spoils in his 1 game.

How many of them were his own teammate?


C’mon, I know you were thinking it

 

[TiAn_]

How many of them were his own teammate?


C’mon, I know you were thinking it

13/12

 

[Doggy]

Walker appeal failed. Won't play this week

They will bring back Thilthorpe, Rankine and potentially Keane though

 

[BEaston]

I missed the start of the Dees game but not sure what Cleary did that was so special. 3 handballs before being concussed.

Am I missing something?

haha fair point. I might have been getting him confused with someone else or conflating two players.

 

[doggiesin08]

Yeah that’s not different to what I said in regards to how it works? Total distance at certain speeds averaged out.

What I’m saying is that the vast majority of your time on a footy field is spent at low speed. Ie standing around whilst a player takes 40 seconds for a set shot, stoppages, manning ground in a zone etc. obviously there’s a hell of a lot more minutes of low speed than high speed, so extra TOG is going to dilute your avg speed even if you’ve done more high speed running overall than the lower tog player

Anyway honestly who gives a ****, getting a headache thinking about it

I'm sorry but that still doesn't make any sense mathematically. Even if the vast majority of time on field is spent at low speed that doesn't mean extra TOG is going to dilute your average.

There is no reason to believe the proportionate mix of standing vs jogging vs sprinting is any different (or at least not definitively slower) in the 40% of the game Treloar spent off the ground than the 60% of the game that he spent on the ground.