Unofficial Preview Changes round 14 vs Adelaide

[Foxman98]

Busslinger 10 spoils per game?
Well to my eye that seems like a wild mushroom episode. Can you substantiate this? 10! 10!

If that’s true I think the Buss would be an automatic selection

S is spoils

 

[Sharkey66]

View attachment 2632748
S is spoils

Wow
Its almost like he gets better at his job the longer he does it

 

[Foxman98]

Wow
Its almost like he gets better at his job the longer he does it

Preaching to the converted

The stinger injury vs Carlton set him back a little but for anyone who watch the VFL game he has to come in was brilliant and was organising everything back there which is also needed

 

[TiAn_]

I’m aware players wear GPS, but not sure what point this is making or countering?

The eye test says he’s not moving with anywhere near his prior pace in either attacking or defensive phases, despite having the lowest ToG in each of the last 3 weeks. If the GPS data says differently then fair enough, but absent having that data we can only go on what we see.

Treloar keeps showing up in the top few for us on some of the tracking data each week.

 

[TiAn_]

That is not true at all only the last 2 weeks since Buss is fit again

Buku also averages more then JOD who is also 3 inches taller almost as if intercept marks isn't the biggest stat to use for KP defenders

Here are the 2 main ones to look at:

1 on 1 loss percentage Buku 43.3% Buss 16.7% JOD 21.1%

Spoils Buku 5.8pg Buss 10pg JOD 7.9pg

Coff vs Buku for the 3rd tall/interceptor is the battle to be looking at and for mine and I would suggest a few in here Coffs form is currently better

Stats out of context are worthless. Busslinger typically gets the worst of the opposition talls, including resting ruckmen, while Buku has regularly been assigned the opposition’s best forward, like Charlie Curnow and Mitch Georgiades.

Swapping Buku out for Busslinger isn’t improving our side.

There may be an argument for adding Busslinger, but even then, not sure what it achieves.

 

[doggiesin08]

Treloar keeps showing up in the top few for us on some of the tracking data each week.

Thanks, which metrics are those? I know the AFL app says he had the highest average pace but I’m more concerned with his ability to hit top pace.

The issue is not whether he can average 10km/hr instead of 9km/hr, but how close he can get to the blokes hitting sprinting speeds above 30km/h. If the data is showing he is hitting those speeds then I’m happy to accept my eyes are wrong.

 

[scooter600x]

I’m aware players wear GPS, but not sure what point this is making or countering?

The eye test says he’s not moving with anywhere near his prior pace in either attacking or defensive phases, despite having the lowest ToG in each of the last 3 weeks. If the GPS data says differently then fair enough, but absent having that data we can only go on what we see.

I’m not making a point at all other than the coaches will have the data available to make an informed decision

 

[TiAn_]

Thanks, which metrics are those? I know the AFL app says he had the highest average pace but I’m more concerned with his ability to hit top pace.

The issue is not whether he can average 10km/hr instead of 9km/hr, but how close he can get to the blokes hitting sprinting speeds above 30km/h. If the data is showing he is hitting those speeds then I’m happy to accept my eyes are wrong.

I don’t think any of our midfielders show up in the top speed metric. If his average speeds are high each way then he’s not struggling to cover the ground.

If Treloar goes out it’s probably going to be for Gallagher, Davidson or Baker. Who everyone also complains about when they get selected.

 

[TiAn_]

View attachment 2632748
S is spoils

Ryan Gardner had 12 spoils in his 1 game.

 

[doggiesin08]

I don’t think any of our midfielders show up in the top speed metric. If his average speeds are high each way then he’s not struggling to cover the ground.

If Treloar goes out it’s probably going to be for Gallagher, Davidson or Baker. Who everyone also complains about when they get selected.

Yep, I’m not concerned with his ability to cover the ground on average, even if he’s doing so with the lowest ToG each week. The concern is the lack of top end pace.

Agree it ultimately comes down to who else is available. Even limited I’d be selecting him over Gags because I’d rather get burnt a few times defensively than what happens when Gags gets the ball. Davidson is line ball for me, and would prefer Baker although accept his VFL form is nothing like his early season AFL form. My stronger preferences are either Dolan or Jaques (pushing Bramble forward).

 

[TiAn_]

Yep, I’m not concerned with his ability to cover the ground on average, even if he’s doing so with the lowest ToG each week. The concern is the lack of top end pace.

Agree it ultimately comes down to who else is available. Even limited I’d be selecting him over Gags because I’d rather get burnt a few times defensively than what happens when Gags gets the ball. Davidson is line ball for me, and would prefer Baker although accept his VFL form is nothing like his early season AFL form. My stronger preferences are either Dolan or Jaques (pushing Bramble forward).

I like what Davidson adds at half forward, but Treloar is playing better footy atm.

IMO Bramble’s best spot by far is at half back, I thought he was pretty ineffectual at HF for a couple of weeks. I also like Jaques, but think we need the maturity and experience of Bramble while we’re using Croft and Hynes on the wings.

 

[bigbulldog67]

That is not true at all only the last 2 weeks since Buss is fit again

Buku also averages more then JOD who is also 3 inches taller almost as if intercept marks isn't the biggest stat to use for KP defenders

Here are the 2 main ones to look at:

1 on 1 loss percentage Buku 43.3% Buss 16.7% JOD 21.1%

Spoils Buku 5.8pg Buss 10pg JOD 7.9pg

Coff vs Buku for the 3rd tall/interceptor is the battle to be looking at and for mine and I would suggest a few in here Coffs form is currently better

I agree with this in that it should be Buku vs Coffield. But I don’t think that’s necessarily how Bev sees it unfortunately.

Buss should be in, we need to see if he’s got it this year, he deserves a proper crack and can justify his position by form too. Worst thing we can do is play Buku all year over him then lose them both and Buss goes on to be a decent defender in an obvious position of need

 

[bigbulldog67]

Busslinger 10 spoils per game?
Well to my eye that seems like a wild mushroom episode. Can you substantiate this? 10! 10!

If that’s true I think the Buss would be an automatic selection

These are not spoils but 1%s
Which is very good and included spoils. Also appears the Bus has more clangers and turnovers. But yeah I’m a little surprised

Busslinger has 40 spoils (not 1%ers) in his 4 games. Has an elite 1-on-1 loss rate and goes at 84% disposal efficiency.

Small sample size sure but he absolutely deserves a run at it on current form

 

[bigbulldog67]

Treloar keeps showing up in the top few for us on some of the tracking data each week.

I mean not really, he’s only shown up in the avg speed in attack & defence tracker. This is a pretty useless tracking stat, it’s completely biased to low TOG players who spend less time on the field not running and tells us literally nothing about his ability to hit top speed which is clearly his biggest problem. No one says Treloar can’t jog around all day, he’s obviously still got an afl level tank but that’s not the issue

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Buss and Khamis are different players. Buss is an old-fashioned footballer who reads the play and uses it well but isn't an athlete.

We want to orient our team our certain way which is why Buku stays in.

There are a few times that Khamis peels off his man to attack groundballs and the like that Buss would never do in a million years - he has neither the speed nor the attacking instincts.

 

[Munnez]

Treloar keeps showing up in the top few for us on some of the tracking data each week.

His ability to cover the ground hasn't really diminished. It thw question on whether he can stll accelerate to the required level. It was pretty telling when Ginnivan who isn't renowned for being super quick was able to pull away from. I the past I would have backed him in to mow him down. Not sure if it's a mental issue in that he doesn't want to push his calves. Or that possibly time has caught up to him and he no longer has that acceleration he once had

 

[TiAn_]

I mean not really, he’s only shown up in the avg speed in attack & defence tracker. This is a pretty useless tracking stat, it’s completely biased to low TOG players who spend less time on the field not running and tells us literally nothing about his ability to hit top speed which is clearly his biggest problem. No one says Treloar can’t jog around at 8-10km/h all day, he’s obviously still got an afl level tank but that’s not the issue

I said that he shows up in some of the tracking data. So how do you get “not really” when your whole post is about the tracking data he shows up in?

Every selection thread is a referendum about one of our fringe half forwards. This week it’s Treloar’s ability to hit his maximum sprint speed. Which follows McNeil’s finishing, Gallagher’s disposal, Baker’s defensive effort and Davidson’s hardness at the contest as the ‘huge problem at half forward of the week’.

 

[Afro_dog]

What agenda?

I have said he is a solid depth player who would be unlucky to be dropped

The relevance of 2 years ago is the fact he still can't defend a genuine tall 1 on 1 which is what he will have to do

He averages 1.5 intercept marks a game this year Coffield averages 1.8 so no he doesn't

We won by 6 points and were dreadful in the first half so the notion that we should better our team because someone will be unlucky to be dropped is U9s level selection not AFL

As others have said you call for Buku to be dropped every other week hence the agenda comment.

I said intercepts (total), which Buku averages more.

You said Coff has been performing better than Buku recently, by what measurables? You have a fixation and it clouds your judgement. I took a quick look at the stats over the last 5 games, and I am just struggling to see how you can say this without putting your hand up and saying it's just vibes.

Last 5 games stats Buku Coff
Intercepts 5.6 4.6
Intercept Marks 1 1.2
D50 GBG 1.8 0.8
spoils 5.2 2.6
1% acts 6 3
Score Launch 1 0.2
Score involvement 1.2 1
1v1 contests 2.8 1
1v1 loss % 42% 40%
contested marks 0.6 0

Despite getting the better forwards he is constantly coming off his man to influence the play. Not even close based on stats, and if he were to transition back to a 3rd, he would be better placed to improve those numbers.

I suggest better to avoid cherry picking stats when the full picture doesn't support your argument and stick to your gut feel.

 

[fargy]

I think it’s a matter of balancing experience and output with Treloar. We were too young and slight with our three smashings. We’ve been decent since we added some experience and size to the team. Will be intriguing to see what happens with Libba back.

 

[bigbulldog67]

I said that he shows up in some of the tracking data. So how do you get “not really” when your whole post is about the tracking data he shows up in?

Every selection thread is a referendum about one of our fringe half forwards. This week it’s Treloar’s ability to hit his maximum sprint speed. Which follows McNeil’s finishing, Gallagher’s disposal, Baker’s defensive effort and Davidson’s hardness at the contest as the ‘huge problem at half forward of the week’.

It was a pretty disingenuous way to put it, Treloar keeps showing up in the top few in the data. Obvious what you’re trying to twist that into. Technically sure you’re correct he shows up in SOME of the data briefly, the one single metric which isn’t relevant to why people want him out. Think it’s pretty clear what I meant when I explained it but sure disregard based on ‘technically’ being correct

So you’re saying all of those points are not valid concerns & criticisms for those respective players? Theres nothing exactly controversial there… I’m not sure what point you think you’re making

 

[TiAn_]

It was a pretty disingenuous way to put it, Treloar keeps showing up in the top few in the data. Obvious what you’re trying to twist that into. Technically sure you’re correct he shows up in SOME of the data briefly, the one single metric which isn’t relevant to why people want him out. Think it’s pretty clear what I meant when I explained it but sure disregard based on ‘technically’ being correct

So you’re saying all of those points are not valid concerns & criticisms for those respective players? Theres nothing exactly controversial there… I’m not sure what point you think you’re making

Oh I’m only “technically correct”, how unfortunate.

How does he show up “briefly”? Are you only looking at it for half a second and closing the app? Seems a bit disingenuous.

I just don’t really care that just like 20 of our other players he doesn’t appear in the top speed data. Maybe he could hit a speed 2km/h faster in an ideal world. Who knows. But how does that compare against the flaws that get raised about the other half a dozen options in that role? It’s not a complex point that I’m making.

 

[doggiesin08]

Oh I’m only “technically correct”, how unfortunate.

How does he show up “briefly”? Are you only looking at it for half a second and closing the app? Seems a bit disingenuous.

I just don’t really care that just like 20 of our other players he doesn’t appear in the top speed data. Maybe he could hit a speed 2km/h faster in an ideal world. Who knows. But how does that compare against the flaws that get raised about the other half a dozen options in that role? It’s not a complex point that I’m making.

I think the point being made is you had referenced data that was not particularly relevant to actually counter the alternate perspective.

No-one has said “He’s running 2km/h too slow” or “He’s not above 20 others”. The observations are he’s low ToG, low pressure acts and people are referencing specific events that hurt the team: run past by Ginnivan, rushing his snap, ignored by teammates in transition.

I think the broader conversation has been comparing what he offers to the other half dozen options, the main point being made that it’s not just Libba to replace McNeil, but rather someone else needs to replace McNeil and Libba replaces Treloar. I would prefer Jaques, Dolan or Kennedy and I would not prefer Baker (current form), Davidson (current form) or Gags (ever). My preferences do not consider at all how important it is for the broader group to have more experienced blokes in and around the team vs too much youth.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Treloar keeps showing up in the top few for us on some of the tracking data each week.

I noticed this too. Confusing as the eye test says he can't full sprint (has the appearance of someone with a sore back to me), but the data shows he's running a lot and pretty fast. Maybe it's lots of fast jogging with minimal impact though.

 

[doggiesin08]

I noticed this too. Confusing as the eye test says he can't full sprint (has the appearance of someone with a sore back to me), but the data shows he's running a lot and pretty fast. Maybe it's lots of fast jogging with minimal impact though.

The average speed means very little when it’s only about 30% of top-end speed with an average of 10.1km/hr being a pretty leisurely jog especially for a professional athlete.

There was a comment made by bigbulldog67 that it favours low ToG players that I don’t think is right, but being low ToG does mean he’s more likely to have a sampling difference vs the game overall in terms of mixture of stoppages vs free flowing, and that can meaningfully skew a small ToG average. He’s probably more likely than most to have a really low average speed in any other given week.

 

[Go the Guts]

How is nank getting dropped after his performance? He was 1 of their best in the defensive 50 after half time. Was there to clean up when the ball hit the deck and covered ground.

He did a couple of OK things, but you’re over-rating his game a bit.
10 disposals & 2 tackles for the entire game.
He’s only young but is borderline AFL standard.
Bit of a whipping boy on our board. I hope he comes good though.