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Preview Changes v Collingwood Round 21

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Crusty Demon said:
Wouldn't be surprised to see Elliott put in the middle. Has done a decent job there in the past at various times. Crisp, JDG and Elliott at stoppages isn't horrible for them considering we really suck at times in stoppage work. We really cannot afford to lose stoppages to this mob as Sidebottom, J Daicos and Pendles will carve you up on the outside if they get first use. Their wings really have been excellent this year.
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sorry, not sorry for intrusion. The above is kinda right. De Goey and Elliott typically don't go to centre bounces together - Pendles has attended a lot more late in the year. We roll a fair few through. Crisp, JDG and Pendles will be the most likely setup. Then the likes of N Daicos, Elliott, and Lipinski go through. Carmichael also if he comes in. And we usually get smashed in clearances.
 
Would have to be Sparrow out for Harmes you’d think, unless someone else is sore we don’t know about.

Has there been any talk about Jackson’s fitness? If he’s out then we’re in real strife for second ruck.
 
LarryDavidNeitz said:
Would have to be Sparrow out for Harmes you’d think, unless someone else is sore we don’t know about.

Has there been any talk about Jackson’s fitness? If he’s out then we’re in real strife for second ruck.
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Brown in for Jackson with Weid moving to KPF/Ruck.

I haven't seen anything about Lever's ankle either, but I haven't really read much this week.

I like Sparrow. Knows how to get it, strong enough to break out of tackles which helps our overlap ball movement. Runs hard. Just needs some better decision making and execution when he's out of traffic. True he might get squeezed out though
 

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Meds said:
Brown in for Jackson with Weid moving to KPF/Ruck.

I haven't seen anything about Lever's ankle either, but I haven't really read much this week.

I like Sparrow. Knows how to get it, strong enough to break out of tackles which helps our overlap ball movement. Runs hard. Just needs some better decision making and execution when he's out of traffic. True he might get squeezed out though
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Weid as ruck was a disaster last time and would be a disaster again. Really hope it doesn't come to that.

I like Sparrow too but his field kicking has been pretty poor. Don't necessarily want him dropped but Harmes plays the same role and is ahead of him.
 
Sparrow plays a tough position - only on the ground for 60-65% TOG and runs his guts out both ways (normally up there at the top of the Telstra tracker running average speeds etc) and does all the team stuff in that time.

I think that's why he sometimes makes sloppy errors, is that he's still building up that AFL body to execute the skills whilst fatigued, because he's actually a lovely kick of the footy.

Rated really highly internally and Trac has come out on social media and praised/defended him before, will be interesting if he's dropped for Harmes. I think they'll drop Hunt to sub, have Brayshaw play HBF and Harmes come in.
 
LarryDavidNeitz said:
Would have to be Sparrow out for Harmes you’d think, unless someone else is sore we don’t know about.

Has there been any talk about Jackson’s fitness? If he’s out then we’re in real strife for second ruck.
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Goody said he's fine in the presser. In fact, he said we're at 'full strength'. Poor T-Mac lol
 
WELCOME TO MY LAB (no images or red arrows though)

I had a look at the Telstra tracker today to see if there was still a pattern from last year that I saw - we are at our best when we run harder defensively than offensively (on average across the whole team) and smash the other team in defensive running. This is our DNA and is quite unusual as most teams seem to run harder offensively than defensively - it's easier psychologically to run into space to kick an easy goal compared to chasing tail, or so the saying goes. I was reminded of this by a recent Chris Scott presser where he mentioned they'd more recently targeted some players that could really run both ways (traded up to pick up M. Holmes, Isaac Smith traded in, Tom Atkins playing more midfield time)

When we are playing at our best our players are almost always in the top 5 for speed in defence at around 8.5-9.5km/h and the team average is normally +1km/h (or +15%~) better than the other team. Most teams seem to run harder in attack, but we actually do the opposite when at our best. When we lose we get outrun defensively and get sucked into running harder forward compared to back. I've just had a look at the Cats team this year and it's an incredibly similar story, they've been outrunning their opponents defensively during this streak of games. This is the statistical representation of what it looks like when we play someone and they get a turnover or free piece of play in the middle of the ground, look up and there's nothing to kick to, so have to shift the ball around and around and kick to May/Lever/Gawn/Petty as the spare anyway. They're suffocated and frustrated with nowhere to go. It's boring, but this is what wins premierships: defensive workrate across the whole park.

Our bad losses this year

Freo - team average 7.7 km/h vs 8.3 km/h (outran)
Sydney - team average 7.7 km/h vs 7.8km/h (outran)
Pies - team average 7.6 km/h vs 7.7 km/h (outran)
Cats - team average 7.6 km/h vs 7.8 km/h (outran)
Dogs - team average 7.0 km/h vs 7.1 km/h (outran)

Our best wins this year this is what it's looked like:

Brisbane - team average at 8.0km/h (vs 7.2 km/h)

1. Sparrow 9.0
2. Jordon 8.9
3. Neal-Bullen 8.8
4. Brayshaw 8.8
5. Spargo 8.6

Freo - team average at 8.2km/h (vs 7.3km/h)

1. Jordon 9.4
2. Neal-Bullen 9.3
3. Salem 9.3
4. Sparrow 9.2
5. Rivers 9.0


Some wins from last year and what it looked like:

QF against Bris - team average 8.3km/h (vs 7.2 km/h)

PF against Cats - team average 8.5km/h (vs 6.9 km/h)

GF against Dogs - team average 7.6km/h (vs 6.4 km/h)


Goodwin teams have always been dependent on pressure, as we aren't necessarily a skills based team. This is what it looks like when we are up and about. Ground ball/CP is another way of approximating workrate, but honestly the pattern is pretty clear. If we look sluggish and 'off' our defensive running is probably down. Will be keeping an eye on it for the rest of the year and especially this week against a hard running Pies team!

EDIT: Forgot to mention to read this in David King's voice
 
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If it's wet I'd like to see Harmes come back in for some crash and bash plus his disposal wont get much worse in the wet anyway.
I think if we win this one, we will clean sweep the rest of the H & A and roll into finals with the belief and selflessness we had last year.
 
Our forward saviour has arrived:

Screenshot_20220804-153807_Facebook.jpg
 
stEdy said:
WELCOME TO MY LAB (no images or red arrows though)

I had a look at the Telstra tracker today to see if there was still a pattern from last year that I saw - we are at our best when we run harder defensively than offensively (on average across the whole team) and smash the other team in defensive running. This is our DNA and is quite unusual as most teams seem to run harder offensively than defensively - it's easier psychologically to run into space to kick an easy goal compared to chasing tail, or so the saying goes. I was reminded of this by a recent Chris Scott presser where he mentioned they'd more recently targeted some players that could really run both ways (traded up to pick up M. Holmes, Isaac Smith traded in, Tom Atkins playing more midfield time)

When we are playing at our best our players are almost always in the top 5 for speed in defence at around 8.5-9.5km/h and the team average is normally +1km/h (or +15%~) better than the other team. Most teams seem to run harder in attack, but we actually do the opposite when at our best. When we lose we get outrun defensively and get sucked into running harder forward compared to back. I've just had a look at the Cats team this year and it's an incredibly similar story, they've been outrunning their opponents defensively during this streak of games. This is the statistical representation of what it looks like when we play someone and they get a turnover or free piece of play in the middle of the ground, look up and there's nothing to kick to, so have to shift the ball around and around and kick to May/Lever/Gawn/Petty as the spare anyway. They're suffocated and frustrated with nowhere to go. It's boring, but this is what wins premierships: defensive workrate across the whole park.

Our bad losses this year

Freo - team average 7.7 km/h vs 8.3 km/h (outran)
Sydney - team average 7.7 km/h vs 7.8km/h (outran)
Pies - team average 7.6 km/h vs 7.7 km/h (outran)
Cats - team average 7.6 km/h vs 7.8 km/h (outran)
Dogs - team average 7.0 km/h vs 7.1 km/h (outran)

Our best wins this year this is what it's looked like:

Brisbane - team average at 8.0km/h (vs 7.2 km/h)

1. Sparrow 9.0
2. Jordon 8.9
3. Neal-Bullen 8.8
4. Brayshaw 8.8
5. Spargo 8.6

Freo - team average at 8.2km/h (vs 7.3km/h)

1. Jordon 9.4
2. Neal-Bullen 9.3
3. Salem 9.3
4. Sparrow 9.2
5. Rivers 9.0


Some wins from last year and what it looked like:

QF against Bris - team average 8.3km/h (vs 7.2 km/h)

PF against Cats - team average 8.5km/h (vs 6.9 km/h)

GF against Dogs - team average 7.6km/h (vs 6.4 km/h)


Goodwin teams have always been dependent on pressure, as we aren't necessarily a skills based team. This is what it looks like when we are up and about. Ground ball/CP is another way of approximating workrate, but honestly the pattern is pretty clear. If we look sluggish and 'off' our defensive running is probably down. Will be keeping an eye on it for the rest of the year and especially this week against a hard running Pies team!
Click to expand...


(with love)
 
stEdy said:
WELCOME TO MY LAB (no images or red arrows though)

I had a look at the Telstra tracker today to see if there was still a pattern from last year that I saw - we are at our best when we run harder defensively than offensively (on average across the whole team) and smash the other team in defensive running. This is our DNA and is quite unusual as most teams seem to run harder offensively than defensively - it's easier psychologically to run into space to kick an easy goal compared to chasing tail, or so the saying goes. I was reminded of this by a recent Chris Scott presser where he mentioned they'd more recently targeted some players that could really run both ways (traded up to pick up M. Holmes, Isaac Smith traded in, Tom Atkins playing more midfield time)

When we are playing at our best our players are almost always in the top 5 for speed in defence at around 8.5-9.5km/h and the team average is normally +1km/h (or +15%~) better than the other team. Most teams seem to run harder in attack, but we actually do the opposite when at our best. When we lose we get outrun defensively and get sucked into running harder forward compared to back. I've just had a look at the Cats team this year and it's an incredibly similar story, they've been outrunning their opponents defensively during this streak of games. This is the statistical representation of what it looks like when we play someone and they get a turnover or free piece of play in the middle of the ground, look up and there's nothing to kick to, so have to shift the ball around and around and kick to May/Lever/Gawn/Petty as the spare anyway. They're suffocated and frustrated with nowhere to go. It's boring, but this is what wins premierships: defensive workrate across the whole park.

Our bad losses this year

Freo - team average 7.7 km/h vs 8.3 km/h (outran)
Sydney - team average 7.7 km/h vs 7.8km/h (outran)
Pies - team average 7.6 km/h vs 7.7 km/h (outran)
Cats - team average 7.6 km/h vs 7.8 km/h (outran)
Dogs - team average 7.0 km/h vs 7.1 km/h (outran)

Our best wins this year this is what it's looked like:

Brisbane - team average at 8.0km/h (vs 7.2 km/h)

1. Sparrow 9.0
2. Jordon 8.9
3. Neal-Bullen 8.8
4. Brayshaw 8.8
5. Spargo 8.6

Freo - team average at 8.2km/h (vs 7.3km/h)

1. Jordon 9.4
2. Neal-Bullen 9.3
3. Salem 9.3
4. Sparrow 9.2
5. Rivers 9.0


Some wins from last year and what it looked like:

QF against Bris - team average 8.3km/h (vs 7.2 km/h)

PF against Cats - team average 8.5km/h (vs 6.9 km/h)

GF against Dogs - team average 7.6km/h (vs 6.4 km/h)


Goodwin teams have always been dependent on pressure, as we aren't necessarily a skills based team. This is what it looks like when we are up and about. Ground ball/CP is another way of approximating workrate, but honestly the pattern is pretty clear. If we look sluggish and 'off' our defensive running is probably down. Will be keeping an eye on it for the rest of the year and especially this week against a hard running Pies team!

EDIT: Forgot to mention to read this in David King's voice
Click to expand...
Weird that both teams were relatively low in the GF. I’d imagine that’s a reflection of a complete drop off from The Western™️ in the fourth quarter, and a partial drop off from us in the second and fourth.

Great analysis though. If we bring the heat in finals no team can run with us - esp the (geri)Cat(ric)s. Curious to know what their highest output in a game is?
 

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Langdon just spoke on sen1116 said (I'm paraphrasing) Collingwood are hard to stop when they get the game on their terms with quick attacking games, said they are one trick ponies. I'm expecting we'll continue to be very defensive, hopefully just another grind.
 
Gysberts2Bate said:
Weird that both teams were relatively low in the GF. I’d imagine that’s a reflection of a complete drop off from The Western™️ in the fourth quarter, and a partial drop off from us in the second and fourth.
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Yeah, I think because they threw in the towel in the last Q and generally heavy legs/banged up bodies by the end of the year.

R1 this year against them was
Defensively: 8.8km/h for us vs 7.2km/h for them
Offensively: 7.5km/h for us vs 8.5km/h for them

So much, much quicker across the board come R1 when everyone's feeling fresh. I remember that game being lightning quick as well.
 
Literally the two interviews I remember him having are this one and the Ross Lyon one.

Seems a delightful fella, but christ he needs to stop doing interviews.

(Unless we win, then it's sig-worthy)
 
Though this could be this week's version of #guernseygate, in which case, I'm all for our players acting like campaigners pre-game and then belting teams.

Maybe that's Goody's new method
 

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Well, Ginnivan can certainly be all duck, no dinner...
 

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Preview Changes v Collingwood Round 21

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