Concerned

[Footy Is The Win]

1979 - Runner Up
1980 - Runner Up
1981 - Runner Up
1982 - 3rd Bottom

1990 - Premiers
1991 - No Finals

2002 - Runner Up
2003 - Runner Up
2004 - 3rd Bottom

2010 - Premiers
2011 - Runner Up
2012 - ?

I see a pattern, where we tend to drop off the year after a couple of grand final appearances, and don't return for roughly 10 years.

2022 - Premiers?

I hope I am wrong, but I just don't see the hunger from the players, that has been there the last 2 or 3 years. My major concern is Carlton have a real chance of grabbing a couple of flags between now and the 20's. This will take them to 18 overall, 3 ahead of us.

Note to players - Please pull your finger out, we need to win the flag this year to at least get on even terms with Essendon and Carlton, because our premiership window closing.

 

[jimmy35]

Jesus.

 

[Raymond Rougeau]

This year is not going to happen to many things already destabilizing I don't wanna go early but for ffs

Injuries injuries injures and underdone players

New coach making adjustments

It's just not gonna happen I think ;(

 

[Baltimore Jack]

1979 - Runner Up
1980 - Runner Up
1981 - Runner Up
1982 - 3rd Bottom

1990 - Premiers
1991 - No Finals

2002 - Runner Up
2003 - Runner Up
2004 - 3rd Bottom

2010 - Premiers
2011 - Runner Up
2012 - ?

I see a pattern, where we tend to drop off the year after a couple of grand final appearances, and don't return for roughly 10 years.

2022 - Premiers?

I hope I am wrong, but I just don't see the hunger from the players, that has been there the last 2 or 3 years. My major concern is Carlton have a real chance of grabbing a couple of flags between now and the 20's. This will take them to 18 overall, 3 ahead of us.

Note to players - Please pull your finger out, we need to win the flag this year to at least get on even terms with Essendon and Carlton, because our premiership window closing.

Yo left out the 4 in a row in late 20's

My point is "cherry picking" stats doesn't help you put a sound argument together

 

[biggiemediums]

1979 - Runner Up
1980 - Runner Up
1981 - Runner Up
1982 - 3rd Bottom

1990 - Premiers
1991 - No Finals

2002 - Runner Up
2003 - Runner Up
2004 - 3rd Bottom

2010 - Premiers
2011 - Runner Up
2012 - ?

I see a pattern, where we tend to drop off the year after a couple of grand final appearances, and don't return for roughly 10 years.

2022 - Premiers?

I hope I am wrong, but I just don't see the hunger from the players, that has been there the last 2 or 3 years. My major concern is Carlton have a real chance of grabbing a couple of flags between now and the 20's. This will take them to 18 overall, 3 ahead of us.

Note to players - Please pull your finger out, we need to win the flag this year to at least get on even terms with Essendon and Carlton, because our premiership window closing.

I will never understand how anyone can write up something like this and announce it as anything close to a statement or question resembling any form of logic. How does anything that happened in 1980 relate to our team today? No players, coaches, staff were in the team in 1980 and now in the same team in 2012.

 

[OniAu]

my biggest concern before this season was losing a couple of stars to the expansion teams.

when reid sidey and cloke are signed up ill be happy

pies will be fine, we still have our core of stars on the field , despite a few injuries, we will dispose of most of the teams fairly easy , eagles,cats hawks and carlton is a different story , we do need our full side on the park for those

 

[Footy Is The Win]

I will never understand how anyone can write up something like this and announce it as anything close to a statement or question resembling any form of logic. How does anything that happened in 1980 relate to our team today? No players, coaches, staff were in the team in 1980 and now in the same team in 2012.

I'm just saying, I see a pattern and I am concerned.

Just like the pattern of losing grand finals, history tends to repeat itself.

Plus everything else going against us at the moment re injuries, new coach, new gameplan, and poor current form, I'm concerned history is again going to repeat itself.

At this stage we don't look anything like top 4.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

I'm just saying, I see a pattern and I am concerned.

Just like the pattern of losing grand finals, history tends to repeat itself.

Plus everything else going against us at the moment re injuries, new coach, new gameplan, and poor current form, I'm concerned history is again going to repeat itself.

At this stage we don't look anything like top 4.

There are two things wrong with your "pattern"

You only see the part you want i.e. that suits your argument

and

Its irrelevant anyway, none of today's players or coaches had anything to do with past era's.

 

[Footy Is The Win]

There are two things wrong with your "pattern"

You only see the part you want i.e. that suits your argument

and

Its irrelevant anyway, none of today's players or coaches had anything to do with past era's.

What you need to realize is we didn't just go from 1980 to now, there were all them years in between. Players and staff changed gradually, not overnight, and overlapping effect means traits are passed on through each generation.

Just like how families pass on their traits.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

What you need to realize is we didn't just go from 1980 to now, there were all them years in between. Players and staff changed gradually, not overnight, and overlapping effect means traits are passed on through each generation.

Just like how families pass on their traits.

Exactly, that's why your point is meaningless

 

[Footy Is The Win]

Exactly, that's why your point is meaningless

^Not sure if serious.

I hope you're right, and I am wrong.

 

[Mobbsy]

when we finally get a full strength side on the park that is match fit and hungry, we will be fine. It's round 3.

Tho since Sept we have lost to Cats Hawks and now Blues.

 

[theroach78]

A trend is a consistent pattern that is almost exactly the same with a slight margin of change each cycle.

a) gauging a 30-year trend with sporadic/incomplete data and simplifying 30 years of club football in a couple of paragraphs is perhaps one of the worst ways you can analyse any information.

b) you can't qualify your statement unless you establish a criteria. What exactly did you set out to find in the first place, and how did you come to the conclusion that this is, in fact, in your professional/statistical opinion based on months of research, a common 10-year cycle?

It's so important to present more than just the things you want to believe. Who are you? Al Gore? Michael Moore?

 

[SuperSub17]

Your so-called trend doesnt say how many grand finals we play before we drop down the ladder. Its 3 from 79-81, 1 in 90, 2 in 02-03. Why cant it be 3 again in 10-12?

Fwiw we finished 4th bottom in 2004.

 

[76woodenspooners]

when we finally get a full strength side on the park that is match fit and hungry, we will be fine. It's round 3.

Unfortunately, that aint gunna happen until Round 1, 2013 at the earliest

 

[bradrowe#32]

This is a really strange thread.

 

[Knightmare]

I doubt we will miss the 8, but we don't look like a top 4 team or a contender if our form so far is any indication.

So many injuries and season long injuries. With Ball out for the season it looks like time to introduce some new talent to our best side and introduce Beams and Wellingham to much more significant midfield minutes.

We need to bring in some young talents who are showing some at VFL level so Seedsman, Paine, Young, Ceglar, Gault, Elliott, Ugle, M.Williams and J.Thomas if he can get healthy. This doesn't mean do so at the expense of established senior players who are producing, but it just means we might look to give some of these players a string of games and some exposure to senior footy at some point.

Right now making the top 8 is top priorty. It's a waste of time tanking the season. Players want to win and don't want to play in losing teams. Playing in losing teams in no way helps their development. The experience of playing finals footy is significantly more important than getting those draft picks as the likes of Sydney and Adelaide have shown time and time again.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I see a pattern, where we tend to drop off the year after a couple of grand final appearances, and don't return for roughly 10 years.

2022 - Premiers?

Don't ever go to the casino. You'll see patterns everywhere.

 

[Footy Is The Win]

Don't ever go to the casino. You'll see patterns everywhere.

Funny you say that, I am a professional poker player.

Collingwood have had drop off years after there 3 last sets of GF's. Sure, it doesn't mean it will happen this time, I was just pointing it out.

If I flip a coin 5 times and each time it lands on heads, the chance of the next flip landing on heads is still 50%

Now, if somebody flipped a coin, let's say 50 times, and each time it landed on heads, and I had to bet on the next flip, I would bet heads.

The reason I would bet heads is because, there has to be an underlying reason why the previous 50 landed on heads, such as the coin is weighted.

Now if Collingwood drop off again this year and fail to make the fails, the above principle starts to carry some weight, and perhaps there is an underlying reason for it.

 

[Footy Is The Win]

Your so-called trend doesnt say how many grand finals we play before we drop down the ladder. Its 3 from 79-81, 1 in 90, 2 in 02-03. Why cant it be 3 again in 10-12?

Fwiw we finished 4th bottom in 2004.

The trend suggests it's either a grand final or no finals.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Funny you say that, I am a professional poker player.

Collingwood have had drop off years after there 3 last sets of GF's. Sure, it doesn't mean it will happen this time, I was just pointing it out.

If I flip a coin 5 times and each time it lands on heads, the chance of the next flip landing on heads is still 50%

Now, if somebody flipped a coin, let's say 50 times, and each time it landed on heads, and I had to bet on the next flip, I would bet heads.

The reason I would bet heads is because, there has to be an underlying reason why the previous 50 landed on heads, such as the coin is weighted.

Now if Collingwood drop off again this year and fail to make the fails, the above principle starts to carry some weight, and perhaps there is an underlying reason for it.

Yeah, I play poker bloody well myself.

First of all; 8 years, 11 years and 6 years is not roughly 10 years. It's an average of 8.3 and a median of 8 years. If you told most clubs they'd have to wait 8 years between GF appearances, they'd jizz in their pants.

Second of all, a vague pattern of 3 events is not 50 consecutive coin flips. A drop off of some description is always likely after a run of making finals/GFs, so we're not even talking about a 50/50 proposition here, but even if it were such an event hypothetically would occur 1 in 8 times due to pure chance alone. Your sample size is so ridiculously small as to be worthless.

Third of all, your selection of results is based purely upon GF appearances and not on the club performing well enough to be a contender. In 2003 we were in a GF and 2004 we bottomed out, but by 2006 we were back in finals. In 1990 we won the flag and in 1991 we missed finals, but 1992 we went into a finals campaign as one of the favourites. Your statement that our "premiership window" is closing merely because our GF appearances have gone in groups of 3, 1, 2 and 2 is bewilderingly oversimplified. By your logic, Essendon's premiership window was closed in 1999.

 

[theroach78]

Funny you say that, I am a professional poker player.

Collingwood have had drop off years after there 3 last sets of GF's. Sure, it doesn't mean it will happen this time, I was just pointing it out.

If I flip a coin 5 times and each time it lands on heads, the chance of the next flip landing on heads is still 50%

Now, if somebody flipped a coin, let's say 50 times, and each time it landed on heads, and I had to bet on the next flip, I would bet heads.

The reason I would bet heads is because, there has to be an underlying reason why the previous 50 landed on heads, such as the coin is weighted.

Now if Collingwood drop off again this year and fail to make the fails, the above principle starts to carry some weight, and perhaps there is an underlying reason for it.

Lol...honestly, you really believe all that? Your gut feel is a guarantee?

 

[The Royal Sampler]

The trend suggests it's either a grand final or no finals.

No it doesn't. I wasn't old enough in the early 80's, and frankly it's ridiculous to draw any conclusions from results 30+ years ago, but your theory has already been debunked on the 1990 and 2002-3 GF campaigns, in that we were back in finals in 1992 and also in 2006, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11. Hardly a "10-year-dropoff" that you claim. In fact a "one-year dropoff" and a "two-year dropoff", if you're going to maintain that it's a grand final or no-finals.