Contested Possession Stat - Misleading?

[RobDog18]

Just wondering what people's views are on the importance of winning the contested possession 'stat' by games end. It's well known that Geelong are yet to "win" this stat this season, even against Melbourne (no offence), so just how important is it?

Reading a thread on the Cats board there are some posters making good points that a team under a lot of pressure is likely to flick the ball around ineffectively to each other in congestion, therefore inflating the count, whereas a team who can get the ball away from a contest with a single hand pass or kick to an open teammate will struggle to amass a high contested possession count, whilst obviously being the most effective of the two styles.

Was after views from supporters of all teams.

 

[blitzer]

Its a good stat but no stat really matters when you don't put it into context and use it in conjunction with other stats. For example a team like GWS might get a lot of contested possessions simply because they can't spread as well as other teams right now, so more of their total possessions will be contested.

Generally I would have thought that as long as your contested possession to uncontested possessions ratio remains within a reasonable % (no idea what amount that would be but im sure the coaches would know) then the more contested possessions the better. Again its only one indicator, and in any one game any individual stat can be quite meaningless (except goals, that's usually a good one).

 

[Boiled Geezer]

In quite a few games Geelong have been visibly beaten at contested football, it is something they are clearly down on in comparison to previous years. No stats are perfect, but in this case it looks pretty accurate.

 

[Astro Bomber]

Just wondering what people's views are on the importance of winning the contested possession 'stat' by games end. It's well known that Geelong are yet to "win" this stat this season, even against Melbourne (no offence), so just how important is it?

Reading a thread on the Cats board there are some posters making good points that a team under a lot of pressure is likely to flick the ball around ineffectively to each other in congestion, therefore inflating the count, whereas a team who can get the ball away from a contest with a single hand pass or kick to an open teammate will struggle to amass a high contested possession count, whilst obviously being the most effective of the two styles.

Was after views from supporters of all teams.

This rarely happens consistently. So in general, winning the contested possession count is important. Now, how they class a contested possession is a different matter.

 

[NTRabbit]

I would say having a poor contested possession stat is only balanced out if your team has an excellent record at causing uncontested turnovers, if they even measure that stat.

Otherwise, contested possessions are a good indicator that you're either playing a lot of teams who are so weak at the ball you don't need to contest it, or your team just isn't winning enough of the ball, and if you don't win the ball it's difficult to win the game.

 

[Black Diamond]

I was going to do this thread myself. It is an overrated stat IMO.

If you play a high possession running-handball style then of course you won't have as many contested stats as a team kicking to contests and forcing stoppages.

People need to start viewing stats within context.

 

[nameless]

The only stat that matters is goals scored...

 

[CF]

The only stat that matters is goals scored...

Amen. This whole focus this year on contested possessions and clearances is the fault of Fox Footy. Stats have to viewed in context not just in their own right.

 

[IanW]

Its a good stat but no stat really matters when you don't put it into context and use it in conjunction with other stats. For example a team like GWS might get a lot of contested possessions simply because they can't spread as well as other teams right now, so more of their total possessions will be contested.

Generally I would have thought that as long as your contested possession to uncontested possessions ratio remains within a reasonable % (no idea what amount that would be but im sure the coaches would know) then the more contested possessions the better. Again its only one indicator, and in any one game any individual stat can be quite meaningless (except goals, that's usually a good one).

What he said.

 

[Astro Bomber]

I was going to do this thread myself. It is an overrated stat IMO.

If you play a high possession running-handball style then of course you won't have as many contested stats as a team kicking to contests and forcing stoppages.

People need to start viewing stats within context.

But if we are comparing the contested possessions in a game between two teams then it doesn't matter what type of game you playe. Both teams will be involved in the same number of stoppages.

 

[jesterwester]

Its a good stat but no stat really matters when you don't put it into context and use it in conjunction with other stats. For example a team like GWS might get a lot of contested possessions simply because they can't spread as well as other teams right now, so more of their total possessions will be contested.

Generally I would have thought that as long as your contested possession to uncontested possessions ratio remains within a reasonable % (no idea what amount that would be but im sure the coaches would know) then the more contested possessions the better. Again its only one indicator, and in any one game any individual stat can be quite meaningless (except goals, that's usually a good one).

That pretty much sums it up. You can win all the possessions in contested situations and still lose if you haven't got the run on the outside, or those contested balls go straight to the opposition. It sure helps though, and a good in & under player is worth his weight in gold.

West coast are only slightly ahead of the stat (+8), and (69+) for total possessions ahead of geelong, despite the differences in the ladder position, so maybe it has something to do with the quality of possessions?
You would think that it wouldnt take geelong too long to fix that up, and with the players they have due later in the year, i certainly wouldnt write them off.

(FYI stats taken from the AFL website http://www.afl.com.au/stats/tabid/73/default.aspx#page=team

 

[mytym]

But if we are comparing the contested possessions in a game between two teams then it doesn't matter what type of game you playe. Both teams will be involved in the same number of stoppages.

This. It doesn't matter if your contested/uncontested ratio varies within your own team, it only matters that you gain possession. The best way to do that is to win the contested possession.

If you don't win the contest, how the hell do you expect to gain possession? Hope your opponent makes a mistake?

 

[Forge199]

Contested Possession stats from CD are rubbish anyway, I mean how are loose ball gets deemed contested? They are loose gets because theres noone around them!

 

[doppleganger]

CD contested possession tally is the sum of hard-ball gets, loose-ball gets, contested marks, free kicks for, gathers from hitouts and knock-ons

Reading a thread on the Cats board there are some posters making good points that a team under a lot of pressure is likely to flick the ball around ineffectively to each other in congestion, therefore inflating the count,

This would make little difference, as they would be recorded as HB receives, which are not contested possessions...they are 'directed' possessions.

 

[mollyfud]

Heard a coach or commentator, forget which it was, bring up a really good point. Its one thing to have a contested possession but what is the players disposal effectiveness for that possession? (sort of what others have said).

I also wonder if you keep kicking to contests, you are probably giving your team mates a 60/40 chance of winning the ball in that contest meaning your winning more contested but you are causing them too.

Also if you run past your opponent and get meters in the clear, that is uncontested but you beat your Opponent in the contest, just by a big margin. Bit like leading players that burn off their opponent on the lead and get an uncontested mark but beat the opp in the contest early!

JMTC

 

[Champion_Data]

Of course everything needs to be put in context. A single stat is never going to give you all of the information you need, but it can definitely be a good starting point and can often be tied with a simple message (eg "winning the footy").

63/79 (79.7%) teams winning the contested possessions have won the game.

45/47 (95.7%) teams winning the contested possessions and having a better disposal efficiency have won the game. Geelong is the only team to have won after losing both stats (R2 v Hawthorn with fewer scoring shots and R4 v Richmond with the same number of scoring shots).

For the sake of comparison:
Clearances - 53/78 (67.9%)
Inside 50s - 60/80 (75.0%)
Disposals - 62/81 (76.5%)
Shots at Goal - 66/80 (82.5%)
Scoring Shots - 69/78 (88.5%)
Goals - 75/76 (98.7%)

 

[Username_lost]

I wonder how different the numbers would be if only CP that linked with effective disposals were counted. That measurement would surely be a more useful stat than mere contested possession, given the range of contexts from which current CP is gathered.

 

[SJ]

Of course everything needs to be put in context. A single stat is never going to give you all of the information you need, but it can definitely be a good starting point and can often be tied with a simple message (eg "winning the footy").

63/79 (79.7%) teams winning the contested possessions have won the game.

45/47 (95.7%) teams winning the contested possessions and having a better disposal efficiency have won the game. Geelong is the only team to have won after losing both stats (R2 v Hawthorn with fewer scoring shots and R4 v Richmond with the same number of scoring shots).

For the sake of comparison:
Clearances - 53/78 (67.9%)
Inside 50s - 60/80 (75.0%)
Disposals - 62/81 (76.5%)
Shots at Goal - 66/80 (82.5%)
Scoring Shots - 69/78 (88.5%)
Goals - 75/76 (98.7%)

Thanks for that.

Can you explain why loose ball gets are classed as contested possessions?

 

[Champion_Data]

Thanks for that.

Can you explain why loose ball gets are classed as contested possessions?

Contested Possessions are any possessions which have been won when the ball is in dispute. Looseball gets are disputed balls without physical contact between players. You still need to beat an opponent to the ball to win it though.

 

[doppleganger]

Contested Possessions are any possessions which have been won when the ball is in dispute. Looseball gets are disputed balls without physical contact between players. You still need to beat an opponent to the ball to win it though.

Surely a mark on lead meets the definition you just gave? Why is that excluded yet running onto a ball with nobody within 20m of you is counted??

 

[RobDog18]

Surely a mark on lead meets the definition you just gave? Why is that excluded yet running onto a ball with nobody within 20m of you is counted??

Agree, stupid stat is stupid.

 

[RobDog18]

Essendon beat Sydney by 30 contested possessions...

 

[Krustyy]

Essendon beat Sydney by 30 contested possessions...

Essendon also had 27 scores to Sydney's 21.

 

[Astro Bomber]

Essendon beat Sydney by 30 contested possessions...

Essendon had 28 more entries into the forward 50. But Sydney had 28 more rebounding 50s. Essendon also had 2 goals 15 up until three quarter time. So its got more to do with a dysfunctional forward line than contested possession. Essendons contested footy in the last quarter was the same as the previous three but their forward line started to function better and kick straight.

 

[The House]

Contested possessions USUALLY means a fair bit....but it's never the be all and end all, especially over the course of a few games.


What I would like to see more of is the +/- applied to most stats, rather than the ranking based on the total number of CP's, clearances, tackles etc.

The +/- version of the stat also demonstrates how well a side is restricting their opposition, whereas a simple ranking does not.


eg, a team that plays a close in or scrappy brand of footy could well be ranked #1 in contested possessions, and also #18 in how many contested possessions they allow their opposition to win....the same could be said for clearances and tackles in this instance.....

....and on the flip side, a team who plays an open and attacking style of footy may be highly ranked for inside 50's and uncontested possessions, yet lowly ranked for inside 50's and uncontested possessions allowed.....I suspect this would be true for Essendon during the Matthew Knights years for example.


For some reason in the footy world the overall stat of "team X averages say 165 contested possessions per game and therefore is ranked #1", seems to be given far more air time and validity than the "team X might only average 150 contested possessions a game, but they average +25 per game which is ranked #1" stat.

I think the +/- is actually far more important to a team's fortunes than the much used "how many do they have per game whilst ignoring how many they give up" stat....

....yet those in the media don't seem to agree with me, and we almost never hear the +/- stat in the various categories.