News Coronavirus and the draft

[GUMBLETRON]

First step

Community football gets green light, training rules revealed

AFL Victoria is permitting community footballers to train in groups of 10 from Monday

www.afl.com.au

 

[briztoon]

If for whatever reason the season can't be finished.

The only fair scenario is a lottery based on 2019 finishes.

Lotto the bottom 10 separately to the top 8.

The following would be the % chances of the no.1 pick.

Gold Coast	18.18%​
Melbourne	16.36%​
Carlton	14.55%​
Sydney	12.73%​
St Kilda	10.91%​
Fremantle	9.09%​
North	7.27%​
Adelaide	5.45%​
Port Adelaide	3.64%​
Hawthorn	1.82%​

It’s not the only fair scenario.

Would actually be fair easier to just average out each teams ladder position from the last 3 or 5 years, and come up with a draft order from that.

No idea will be perfect. But there are a few possibilities that will each have their pro’s and cons.

 

[philthy05]

It’s not the only fair scenario.

Would actually be fair easier to just average out each teams ladder position from the last 3 or 5 years, and come up with a draft order from that.

No idea will be perfect. But there are a few possibilities that will each have their pro’s and cons.

Unnecessary to go that far back. It skews things way too much. A team like Brisbane that is on the way up gets an earlier pick.

 

[briztoon]

Unnecessary to go that far back. It skews things way too much. A team like Brisbane that is on the way up gets an earlier pick.

What about a team like Adelaide that is on the way down?

You’ve handicapped them in your handing out of arbitrary percentages.

There is no perfect answer here.

One solution is as good as the other.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Just skip a year entirely. Extend all current contracts by 12 months.

U/18 becomes U/19 (permanently), meaning the draft has a greater affect on club performance the following year (~80% of draftees are not physically ready in 1st year).

More kids get into the country football/state leagues - playing against Men.

Maybe even has a shot at stopping the recruitment for 'tomorrow', and encourage more mature, state league players to be drafted - giving all but the elite/early developers a genuine career pathway, and stop the AFL being such a "development" league with as much as 50% of players there on 'potential' and not 'performance'.

 

[philthy05]

Just skip a year entirely. Extend all current contracts by 12 months.

U/18 becomes U/19 (permanently), meaning the draft has a greater affect on club performance the following year (~80% of draftees are not physically ready in 1st year).

More kids get into the country football/state leagues - playing against Men.

Maybe even has a shot at stopping the recruitment for 'tomorrow', and encourage more mature, state league players to be drafted - giving all but the elite/early developers a genuine career pathway, and stop the AFL being such a "development" league with as much as 50% of players there on 'potential' and not 'performance'.

There’s like a 100 reasons why that doesn’t work. Everyone that just traded into next years draft is ****ed over. Now they have to wait an extra year to get the injection of players they were after.

Teams that traded out are also ****ed over. Melbourne go 2 years without a first round pick instead of 1.

Then all the problems with players that may have wanted to move teams this off-season becomes super messy.

All the problems that arise from kids leaving school and not have a professional league to go into until a year later.

As for the 80% of kids not being ready for AFL yet, which is a figure you’ve plucked but it may not be wrong but I’m not sure it’s accurate either

You do realise that those drafted kids aren’t made to play afl if they aren’t ready yeah? That every team in the league has seconds they can play the kids in to develop. Which 19yr old is better prepared to play afl? The guy who has been on an AFL list, working in a professional environment with access to professional health and fitness staff with elite equipment and set up or whatever place you’re proposing 19yr olds play while going to uni / entering the workforce?


The choice between that absolute cluster**** and playing a few games late in the year or early next year before a draft and recruiters adjust is obvious to me.

Also, who in your hawthorn team is there on “potential” and not performance? 50% according to your statement.

Why shouldn’t they be there?

Who should be playing instead of them?

Where should they be?

Are they all 18year olds that you propose shouldn’t be in the league?

If they came in a year later are they fully developed?

 

[Pykie]

It’s not the only fair scenario.

Would actually be fair easier to just average out each teams ladder position from the last 3 or 5 years, and come up with a draft order from that.

No idea will be perfect. But there are a few possibilities that will each have their pro’s and cons.

That scenario is neither fair, and honestly fairly ridiculous. It's completely against the ideology of the draft.

Which revolves around the idea that hypothetically those clubs will have received the best picks over those 5 years and have climbed up the ladder with the talent influx, exactly like Brisbane has.

2015 is absolutely irrelevant regarding where teams are currently placed.

Fremantle won the minor premiership and Sydney finished top 4, 5 years ago.

The idea that year would have equal weighting with 2019 is frankly absurd.

2019 is the most recently completed season and should theoretically give the closest indication to the relative strength of teams lists.

A weighted lottery would give an element of fairness and unbias to the process.

 

[briztoon]

That scenario is neither fair, and honestly fairly ridiculous. It's completely against the ideology of the draft.

Which revolves around the idea that hypothetically those clubs will have received the best picks over those 5 years and have climbed up the ladder with the talent influx, exactly like Brisbane has.

2015 is absolutely irrelevant regarding where teams are currently placed.

Fremantle won the minor premiership and Sydney finished top 4, 5 years ago.

The idea that year would have equal weighting with 2019 is frankly absurd.

2019 is the most recently completed season and should theoretically give the closest indication to the relative strength of teams lists.

A weighted lottery would give an element of fairness and unbias to the process.

You don’t read very well do you?

 

[Pykie]

You don’t read very well do you?

Tell me again how this is relevant to last year and the current state of lists.

The only possible reason for this suggestion, is because it's great for Brisbane....

 

[briztoon]

Tell me again how this is relevant to last year and the current state of lists.

The only possible reason for this suggestion, is because it's great for Brisbane....

View attachment 845443

Again, you don’t read to well.

 

[Lore]

I suspect if we get more than a handful of rounds complete, the draft order will stand on its own merit. Perhaps the fixture will be designed to accomodate this, 2-3 games against last years top, middle and bottom six teams in the first 8-10 rounds or something similar. That will amplify the relevance of percentage but at least it's something.

If the mid-year draft last year was able to be based on 10 rounds worth of games then there is precedent to base it on a shortened season.

It may also be that the draft is limited to players who have previously played AFL or nominated for an AFL draft.

Otherwise we most likely revert to 2019's draft order, or forego the draft altogether for 12 months, perhaps with a round of supplemental selections based on prior eligibility to replace any retirees.

U18s currently doing year 12 may need to repeat their year 12 anyway, depending on how this thing works out. Certainly work placements for VCAL kids will be compromised, and I've no idea how they'll do ATAR scores without SACs and exams.

 

[andleanback]

AFL Draft 2020: Coronavirus, could be cut to less than two rounds, will the draft go ahead, date, COVID-19

The AFL is expected to hold its national and rookie drafts as planned in November, but they could be trimmed to less than two rounds amid potential list culls.

www.foxsports.com.au

Article on fox footy saying that the draft could be cut down to 25 picks this year. I hope thats just a throw away comment for the moment and doesn't become a reality. I think something would have to go drastically wrong later in the year for it to get to that. If the AFL struggles to complete the season and award a premier, while the underage comps are unable to get in enough games to rank talent ( At least 8 nab league games + National champs), then i think the AFL should seriously consider raising the draft age to 19, nab league/colts/sanfl/academies/national champs would then become u19s. Draft picks clubs had acquired in trades would then role over into next year. It would also save clubs thousands in relocation/ integration costs that come with the new crop of draft players.

Aside from that, its the perfect time to get rid of the rookie draft and streamline all the picks into the national draft (Keep the cat b rookies). In recent years the rookie draft has been exploited by clubs to delist and redraft mature players, when it was initially introduced to open up spots for long term project players a club could put time into without hurting the salary cap.

 

[Lore]

AFL Draft 2020: Coronavirus, could be cut to less than two rounds, will the draft go ahead, date, COVID-19

The AFL is expected to hold its national and rookie drafts as planned in November, but they could be trimmed to less than two rounds amid potential list culls.

www.foxsports.com.au

Article on fox footy saying that the draft could be cut down to 25 picks this year. I hope thats just a throw away comment for the moment and doesn't become a reality. I think something would have to go drastically wrong later in the year for it to get to that. If the AFL struggles to complete the season and award a premier, while the underage comps are unable to get in enough games to rank talent ( At least 8 nab league games + National champs), then i think the AFL should seriously consider raising the draft age to 19, nab league/colts/sanfl/academies/national champs would then become u19s. Draft picks clubs had acquired in trades would then role over into next year. It would also save clubs thousands in relocation/ integration costs that come with the new crop of draft players.

Aside from that, its the perfect time to get rid of the rookie draft and streamline all the picks into the national draft (Keep the cat b rookies). In recent years the rookie draft has been exploited by clubs to delist and redraft mature players, when it was initially introduced to open up spots for long term project players a club could put time into without hurting the salary cap.

Did you read the whole article or just the headline? (Honest question, not trying to sass you.)

It was saying that they're thinking of having an U18s Carnival in August (if they can), and that AFL list sizes may be cut to 38, meaning there isn't room on the list for more draftees than that.

Also, many of the players expected to go in the first couple of rounds are attached to clubs through academy/father-son rules already, are they not? So perhaps it's more a matter of knowing when to bid on them.

 

[briztoon]

AFL Draft 2020: Coronavirus, could be cut to less than two rounds, will the draft go ahead, date, COVID-19

The AFL is expected to hold its national and rookie drafts as planned in November, but they could be trimmed to less than two rounds amid potential list culls.

www.foxsports.com.au

Article on fox footy saying that the draft could be cut down to 25 picks this year. I hope thats just a throw away comment for the moment and doesn't become a reality. I think something would have to go drastically wrong later in the year for it to get to that. If the AFL struggles to complete the season and award a premier, while the underage comps are unable to get in enough games to rank talent ( At least 8 nab league games + National champs), then i think the AFL should seriously consider raising the draft age to 19, nab league/colts/sanfl/academies/national champs would then become u19s. Draft picks clubs had acquired in trades would then role over into next year. It would also save clubs thousands in relocation/ integration costs that come with the new crop of draft players.

Aside from that, its the perfect time to get rid of the rookie draft and streamline all the picks into the national draft (Keep the cat b rookies). In recent years the rookie draft has been exploited by clubs to delist and redraft mature players, when it was initially introduced to open up spots for long term project players a club could put time into without hurting the salary cap.

If clubs are cutting lists back to 35 or 38 spots, there’s basically no room to be drafting development kids.

Most clubs will favour keeping their best 30 players, plus young players they’ve put time in to developing already.

Only kids who would expected to impact straight away, or look like guns with little development will be drafted.


I posted this on our board earlier.
Most of the talk will be around if clubs survive, what the league looks like on the other side.

I think you can rip up almost all existing sponsorships contracts, the media rights contracts. Almost anything that has generated income for the league and clubs will change, because we don’t know which companies will survive this, and what companies will look like on the other side.

Many current club sponsors probably won’t have the budgets to continue sponsoring sports at all. Or if they’re sponsoring multiple teams worldwide, have to look for where they get the best bang for their buck, and a small market such as Australia will be low down international companies lists.

Rip up the tpp, it’s out the window. We’ll see what the new tpp and contracts look like on the other side.

 

[andleanback]

Did you read the whole article or just the headline? (Honest question, not trying to sass you.)

It was saying that they're thinking of having an U18s Carnival in August (if they can), and that AFL list sizes may be cut to 38, meaning there isn't room on the list for more draftees than that.

Also, many of the players expected to go in the first couple of rounds are attached to clubs through academy/father-son rules already, are they not? So perhaps it's more a matter of knowing when to bid on them.

Yeah i did read the whole article. As i mentioned if it gets to the point where there isnt room for hardly any draftees this year, is there any point of having the actual draft? They could just as easily raise the draft age to 19 and let this crop of juniors have a fair go at it, rather than only a handful getting picked up ( as the article mentioned clubs list will most likely be smaller). As i said it's dependant on how the season/ u18 season plays out and whether it gets up and running, will the champs be played in august who knows? Who thought we were be in the position 2 weeks ago, who knows how much worse it might be in a months time. This situation is unprecedented and moving so fast, no one knows where we'll end up.

 

[andleanback]

If clubs are cutting lists back to 35 or 38 spots, there’s basically no room to be drafting development kids.

Most clubs will favour keeping their best 30 players, plus young players they’ve put time in to developing already.

Only kids who would expected to impact straight away, or look like guns with little development will be drafted.


I posted this on our board earlier.
Most of the talk will be around if clubs survive, what the league looks like on the other side.

I think you can rip up almost all existing sponsorships contracts, the media rights contracts. Almost anything that has generated income for the league and clubs will change, because we don’t know which companies will survive this, and what companies will look like on the other side.

Many current club sponsors probably won’t have the budgets to continue sponsoring sports at all. Or if they’re sponsoring multiple teams worldwide, have to look for where they get the best bang for their buck, and a small market such as Australia will be low down international companies lists.

Rip up the tpp, it’s out the window. We’ll see what the new tpp and contracts look like on the other side.

I agree with you on the revenue side of things, but i cant see club lists getting to 35, thats essentially cutting a quarter of the list. How many times in past seasons have teams dealt with injury lists of 10-15 players, that would essentially leave them with no fit/ afl ready players which would have an adverse effect of the standard of AFL football, while essentially cutting 20% of players. I can see them going from 44 ( plus cat b's) to 40 (plus cat b's), essentially getting rid of the rookie list spots.

 

[briztoon]

I agree with you on the revenue side of things, but i cant see club lists getting to 35, thats essentially cutting a quarter of the list. How many times in past seasons have teams dealt with injury lists of 10-15 players, that would essentially leave them with no fit/ afl ready players which would have an adverse effect of the standard of AFL football, while essentially cutting 20% of players. I can see them going from 44 ( plus cat b's) to 40 (plus cat b's), essentially getting rid of the rookie list spots.

This was posted on our board at 2:51pm today.

I heard from someone at the AFL that one of the considerations being looked at to help clubs is to reduce list sizes to 35 players.

Try to doing that (reduce our current list by 12-14 players) with our current list whilst also factoring in bringing an extra player or two from u/18 levels.

 

[briztoon]

Yeah i did read the whole article. As i mentioned if it gets to the point where there isnt room for hardly any draftees this year, is there any point of having the actual draft? They could just as easily raise the draft age to 19 and let this crop of juniors have a fair go at it, rather than only a handful getting picked up ( as the article mentioned clubs list will most likely be smaller). As i said it's dependant on how the season/ u18 season plays out and whether it gets up and running, will the champs be played in august who knows? Who thought we were be in the position 2 weeks ago, who knows how much worse it might be in a months time. This situation is unprecedented and moving so fast, no one knows where we'll end up.

If the AFL is looking at cutting list sizes, that’s not a one year, one off proposal.

 

[andleanback]

This was posted on our board at 2:51pm today.

I can’t see that happening for 2021 if they are going to play a 22 match season.

 

[briztoon]

I can’t see that happening for 2021 if they are going to play a 22 match season.

Yeah, I reckon that’s going to go to. 17 rounds.

 

[andleanback]

Yeah, I reckon that’s going to go to. 17 rounds.

Pump the breaks mate, More games = more revenue and if crowds are locked out for the whole of 2020, crowds next year will be well up and the AFL/ clubs will want to take full advantage of that.

 

[andleanback]

If the AFL is looking at cutting list sizes, that’s not a one year, one off proposal.

Smaller list sizes would I think have a more adverse affect on list cloggers that are given 1 or 2 years to long in the system before being to delisted. Bringing in 3-4 talented kids not only can help regenerate your list but also helps even out the salary cap.

 

[philthy05]

I suspect if we get more than a handful of rounds complete, the draft order will stand on its own merit. Perhaps the fixture will be designed to accomodate this, 2-3 games against last years top, middle and bottom six teams in the first 8-10 rounds or something similar. That will amplify the relevance of percentage but at least it's something.

If the mid-year draft last year was able to be based on 10 rounds worth of games then there is precedent to base it on a shortened season.

It may also be that the draft is limited to players who have previously played AFL or nominated for an AFL draft.

Otherwise we most likely revert to 2019's draft order, or forego the draft altogether for 12 months, perhaps with a round of supplemental selections based on prior eligibility to replace any retirees.

U18s currently doing year 12 may need to repeat their year 12 anyway, depending on how this thing works out. Certainly work placements for VCAL kids will be compromised, and I've no idea how they'll do ATAR scores without SACs and exams.

I would think that if you only got to play say four games this year you could work off combining this year and last year. Either an average of ladder position, or just add the wins ie a team with 12 wins last year and won two of four would finish with 14 wins and decide their ladder position.

 

[briztoon]

Pump the breaks mate, More games = more revenue and if crowds are locked out for the whole of 2020, crowds next year will be well up and the AFL/ clubs will want to take full advantage of that.

I did say in a previous post that the revenue isn’t going to be the same after we get through this.

Foxtel is reportedly in serious trouble, and tv stations have been losing their advertising revenue.

As I said, I think the television contracts get torn up and renegotiated. At a significant loss to the AFL (and NRL) and every other Aussie sport.

Best case scenario is we’re looking at recession on the other side of this.

Worst case, a depression. The last depression took a world war and an American post war boom to pull the world forward.

This time round, there’s a very real prospect the USA loses it’s status as the number 1 economy in the world on the other side.

 

[yaco55]

Think some are overly complicating the situation - Hopefully the under 18's can get a decent chunk of a season and even if not, there will be a draft, but expect clubs to make limited picks - What you may see is more trading between clubs in the trade period.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

A) you end up with a bunch of young kids leaving school and instead of going into professional programmes they have to get full time jobs or go to uni

So what? That's good life experience.

How many prospects drop out of football?

If they're good enough for the national draft, relatively few.

How easy do you think it is to manage a full time job or uni with football especially if you’re trying to become a professional.

Nobody said they have to be working or studying full-time, they can do it part-time. I maintain that if they really want to be a professional they should be able to handle work or study along with football.

B) players in a sport that has a very short life span get that cut shorter

It's pretty long by the standards of several other sports. Also, TAC Cup could be left as a U18 comp with potential draftees playing state league for a year. It could be a good way to rejuvenate the state leagues, similar to how the NBL got much more popular once they started taking top young Americans for a year before they enter the NBA draft.