News Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread IV | Metro Melb in lockdown & 9pm-5am curfew

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Val Keating

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Dec 27, 2017
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Does anyone know the number the number of new cases that have been vaccinated, if any? I can’t find it anywhere.

I know there’s none in ICU or have died. Obviously that’s important
7FC0D2AE-B82F-4590-B372-8407FB65771E.jpeg


I’m just curious if any of the active cases had been vaccinated. Can anyone help out?
 

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The Butcher

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AFAICT they don't consider community benefit at all. They only consider the benefit to the individual child.

Because they are referring to kids not adults, personally I don't have a problem with this. In my mind its pretty much fundamental that adults take risks to protect children, not the other way round.

I'm responsible for my kids wellbeing but they aren't responsible for mine.
Hmm, fascinating, it seems i might need to fill in a knowledge gap, I'm gonna look into that, thanks. If true, is there an argument that childless adults get to ingnore community benefit? Also, who are the people that decided on that value judgement for this proffession (if so) and when did I sign up for it and have our pollies understood the ways this underlying assumption impacts advice? Do experts in communities with high percentages of youth, lean more towards community impact.. so many questions. Off i go.
[edit: my bold above]
 

The Butcher

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first hit. my bold. no conclusion yet but so far leaning towards the experts do in fact consider population factors when advising re. kids and vaccinations. early doors tho.

What is Epidemiology?

Epidemiology is the method used to find the causes of health outcomes and diseases in populations. In epidemiology, the patient is the community and individuals are viewed collectively. By definition, epidemiology is the study (scientific, systematic, and data-driven) of the distribution (frequency, pattern) and determinants (causes, risk factors) of health-related states and events (not just diseases) in specified populations (neighborhood, school, city, state, country, global). It is also the application of this study to the control of health problems (Source: Principles of Epidemiology, 3rd Edition).
 

The Butcher

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If anyone knows of a useful study of the R value for vaccinated/non children with delta (in a situation comparable to aust (community prevelance, demographics, etc))... please do share. Hahahahahaaaaaa. yeah right.

From the JCVI link.
It is not within the JCVI’s remit to consider the wider societal impacts of vaccination, including educational benefits. The government may wish to seek further views on the wider societal and educational impacts from the Chief Medical Officers of the UK 4 nations.

It's bizzare to me that they would be blinded to a significant portion of their area of study (community impact) and still expected to look you in the eye and provide advice.
 

The Butcher

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So maybe a good way to think of this vaccine for kids advice is along the immunology/epidemiology "divide". Haven't been able to find much info on the members of JCVI, "an independent clincial group of experts", so it's just a guess but is backed up by their limited "remit". Still, why I should believe that this portion of the community gets to reduce it's care factor of the community impacts (for real but tiny risks) is a work in progress for me.
 

7577969923

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So maybe a good way to think of this vaccine for kids advice is along the immunology/epidemiology "divide". Haven't been able to find much info on the members of JCVI, "an independent clincial group of experts", so it's just a guess but is backed up by their limited "remit". Still, why I should believe that this portion of the community gets to reduce it's care factor of the community impacts (for real but tiny risks) is a work in progress for me.
It seems on balance that even though teenagers will not necessarily suffer significant personal consequences they will potentially be if left unvaccinated, the major source of unchecked spread of the virus. My (ex) wife teaches high school kids and would attest as to how difficult it is to get them to comply with measures like mask-wearing and distancing. Teenagers don't live in a bubble. they interact with parents, teachers, grandparents, and a wide array of people of all ages. If the virus is spreading uncontrolled amongst this cohort it will inevitably leak into far more vulnerable cohorts like the over 70s, who are still vulnerable even if vaccinated. It would also lead to persistent school closures which are damaging to educational outcomes.

Before someone makes the claim that you can still catch and spread covid if vaccinated. That is true but it is at much lower levels.

I see what the JVCI, with their narrow remit is saying, but when you do consider the broader societal and educational outcomes it seems like a no-brainer to vaccinate the 12 to 16 year olds. Both of my teenagers will be getting vaccinated.
 

ferball

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Hmm, fascinating, it seems i might need to fill in a knowledge gap, I'm gonna look into that, thanks. If true, is there an argument that childless adults get to ingnore community benefit? Also, who are the people that decided on that value judgement for this proffession (if so) and when did I sign up for it and have our pollies understood the ways this underlying assumption impacts advice? Do experts in communities with high percentages of youth, lean more towards community impact.. so many questions. Off i go.
[edit: my bold above]
I put a link to the advice upthread. This is from that link:

It is not within the JCVI’s remit to consider the wider societal impacts of vaccination, including educational benefits. The government may wish to seek further views on the wider societal and educational impacts from the Chief Medical Officers of the UK 4 nations.

So it is specifically not their job to do that but they do acknowledge other people can and should take that role. I reckon the pollies who originally made the decision to create those groups knew that and its why they created the group in the first place. They probably want pure medical advice untainted by all the other considerations they will have to make or weigh up when they come to a decision.

Childless adults are still adults too. The term responsible adult exists for a reason. There is no argument that childless adults get to ignore community benefit in my opinion. Tho ... I dunno if community is the right word. How many people do you know or know of in your community? well suburb/town/locality. The way I see community, its the people you know or know of.

Everyone else might be part of the same society, or suburb or nation but they are strangers.
 

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ferball

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first hit. my bold. no conclusion yet but so far leaning towards the experts do in fact consider population factors when advising re. kids and vaccinations. early doors tho.

What is Epidemiology?

Epidemiology is the method used to find the causes of health outcomes and diseases in populations. In epidemiology, the patient is the community and individuals are viewed collectively. By definition, epidemiology is the study (scientific, systematic, and data-driven) of the distribution (frequency, pattern) and determinants (causes, risk factors) of health-related states and events (not just diseases) in specified populations (neighborhood, school, city, state, country, global). It is also the application of this study to the control of health problems (Source: Principles of Epidemiology, 3rd Edition).


Just saw this.

So epidemiologists and immunologists would work together, one concentrating on the community (epidemiology) the other on the individuals in that community (immunology). At least that is how I see it and how I reckon it would work best.

Also ...

Re the JCVI bit I just quoted....

The responsible ministers have sought other advice and made a decision based on it.


It may or may not have caused a shitfight. Hard to tell cos the article implies it did but seems to then contradict itself:

 

Tas

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There can be only one...

Good article, and related to our conversation about being honest with people on what the vaccine does (protect you from severe illness, hospitalisation, death compared to the unvaccinated) and what it does not do (stop you from getting and transmitting the virus).

I’m not hearing enough in our post-COVID plans about continuing precautions, for individuals and communities. Videos of unmasked crowds perpetuate a myth that everyone can go back to normal - even hyper normal, making up for lost time - after a “freedom day” is announced.
Yeah, that is my frustration, that they are using language which acts like the disease is over once we hit x% vaccinations. I hope it is the end of lockdowns, but they need to temper expectations about what the vaccine will do. I guess they aren't talking about it because they fear the reluctant wont get the vaccine, but people with underlying health issues (a big chunk of Australians) need to be made aware that they need to take every precaution to avoid developing covid because there are still some very bad outcomes for people with underlying health issues. Whilst the vaccine will significantly lower the chance of them developing covid, going back to normal could be extremely dangerous for some.

It doesn't mean we need to stay in a bubble, but you can mitigate your exposure to risk, but the public message should be accurate and fact based. They can't just give us medical advice they think we need to hear in order to achieve a desirable economic outcome, that is beyond reckless, it is negligence and if you are a doctor medical malpractice who should have their ability to practice medicine stripped if they give out harmful advice.

I think we need an accurate roadmap based on currently understood science, one is what we can realistically expect once we get the vaccinations up and what we will have to do between that point and when we have an approved treatment for covid (in plentiful supply) that we can give to people as soon as they test positive. Without the treatment part of the equation, we threaten to fill hospitals with covid patients and threaten the lives of others who also are in need of hospital beds.
 

The Butcher

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Yeah, the JCVI's weasel words are "universal vaccination". Taking the position against universal vaccination for juniors is as useful as Gary Rohan in September. As always the trick is remembering that this voice is just one in the crowd, with it's own itches to scratch.

This particular voice wasnt (maybe will now) considering societal concerns, but overal policy must (parents policy/schools/gov't) and with that in mind it's somewhat important to recall that over there the context is endemic virus and an almost complete switch of paradigm from transmission minimisation to "serious" harm minimisation. We dont yet have endemic virus and are teetering between paradigms.

In relation to dancing between paradigms, it seems unavoidable during this transition period but some of us forget that we're dancing and it's a struggle to understand all the sweat.
1631592342503.png
 

SpiderBurton22

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Our GP very keen on our 15 year old being vaccinated as well as our 19 year old (and us both done already), and both boys are also very keen, so that’s what we are doing.
My 18 year old has his 1st jab, 2 days after being eligible and just booked my 14 year old in for Oct 16.
 

B4Bear

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My 18 year old has his 1st jab, 2 days after being eligible and just booked my 14 year old in for Oct 16.
Good for you and yours, mine too.

I am not about to be swayed by a few reports from an organisation that I have never heard of who will have their own aims.

At the end of the day will the risk from a vaccine for a child be greater than the illness they suffer when they eventually get Covid?
 

The Butcher

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Good for you and yours, mine too.

I am not about to be swayed by a few reports from an organisation that I have never heard of who will have their own aims.

At the end of the day will the risk from a vaccine for a child be greater than the illness they suffer when they eventually get Covid?
[edit] tldr. live and let live

Even when boiling it down into those terms, and theres plenty of ways to boil it down, there are soo many assumptions, unknowns, generalisations and value judgements required to pump out an answer. thats cool the world waits for no man and decisions must be made. to me, just asking that seemingly simple question without agreed assumptions and values just sets us up to bicker and argue while each balancing tippy toed on a chopstick over a pit of spikes but acting like we're atop an inpenetrable fortress.
 

The acurate one

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So am not sure how many flu suffers are actually on here . I am one and cop it freaking bad . Face full of Coldsores , temp of its head, like need a cold shower to bring it down . Vomiting brain fog , and then when the fever breaks you may as well tip 5 litres of water on the bed.
So my question is did those flu’s have a name then? Or was that just a common flu ? Honestly curious
 

Only Forwards

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So am not sure how many flu suffers are actually on here . I am one and cop it freaking bad . Face full of Coldsores , temp of its head, like need a cold shower to bring it down . Vomiting brain fog , and then when the fever breaks you may as well tip 5 litres of water on the bed.
So my question is did those flu’s have a name then? Or was that just a common flu ? Honestly curious
The CDC in the states has pages dedicated to this stuff.

 

Themanbun

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Apr 19, 2019
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So am not sure how many flu suffers are actually on here . I am one and cop it freaking bad . Face full of Coldsores , temp of its head, like need a cold shower to bring it down . Vomiting brain fog , and then when the fever breaks you may as well tip 5 litres of water on the bed.
So my question is did those flu’s have a name then? Or was that just a common flu ? Honestly curious
Depends on the strain - swine flus and avian flus are generally called as such. Other influenzas are usually type A or B.

For coronaviruses the main ones we hear off that get a 'name' are SARS, MERS and Sars 2.0 - COVID.
 

shintemaster

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The NSW outbreak is continuing to look like it has peaked.

View attachment 1235345
Hope so - would be some good news amongst a pretty bad month of so, particularly if cases continue to drop daily rather than just flatline. Of course total cases will likely continue to rise and hospitalisations / deaths will also rise given there is not the same capacity in the system as at the start of the outbreak due to the length of time people often require care / ICU care. In other words the worst likely still to come over the next 3-4 weeks even if daily cases taper off.
 

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