Coronavirus/COVID-19

[stefoid]

we might end up with the first 16 game season where everybody plays each other once

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

we might end up with the first 16 game season where everybody plays each other once

Not such a bad thing

 

[Merlins Revenge]

Online English teacher here. Thankfully, I work from home.

 

[ScragCity]

At least if the season is cancelled it will give English another year to keep developing the thickness of his neck

 

[Bemoreboyddog]

Was looking forward to our round 1 game vs Pies but I can’t see fans being able to attend. Game might not go ahead at this rate.

 

[X_box_X]

Virus's grow exponentially. For this coronavirus, every infected person infects on average 2.5 other people. (Flu is around 1 other person). So using really rough numbers in the first week that is one infected person, the second week 2.5, third week another 6, then 15, 40, 100, 250, 600, 1500, 4000, 10000, 25000, 60000, 150000, 400,000, 1 million.*

Obviously these are rough numbers but it show how, without social isolation we can jump from 1 new infection to potentially 1 million new infections per week in four months. And that is not the peak.

Of those 1 million new infections, estimates are that over 10,000 could die and maybe 100,000 need medical treatment and 200,000 have the week off work.

So this is why people who know this stuff are worried by a few cases. Because they understand the exponential growth from a few cases to a million+.

Now you mention the flu do let's do a quick bit of maths on that. Each person with the flu infects on average 1 person. So in theoretical week 16, that 60,000 new infections, a lot less than the 1 million new coronavirus infections.*

And whilst death rates are rubbery, let's assume that coronavirus has a death rate of 1% and the flu is 0.1%. In theoretical week 16, that's 60 flu deaths and 10,000 coronavirus deaths.

So now you have seen the maths, what does this mean to you? Obviously the biggest risk is the health system. You might not die from it but what do you do with your elderly relatives who can't get into over crowded hospitals to get help with their breathing , what do you do with them if they die? What do you do if you break a leg? Or have appendicitis?

How does this affect your place of work?
Can your workplace survive having a lot of people off sick at once? Does tour workplace offer a service that has less demand whilst everyone is sick? Can you afford to go without pay? Can you work extra to cover sick people? How do you cope with services you use also being closed. E.g. schools, etc.*

More abstract questions. What happens to your suburb if a significant percentage of the population isn't getting paid? What happens to banks if mortgages aren't getting paid?*

So what can we do to mitigate the risks? The two answers are good hygiene and social isolation.

So what do you need to think about with social isolation? How do you isolate and care for elderly relatives? Do you want or need to pull them out of aged care facilities to isolate them? Do you need to assist them in isolating them in their homes?*

How does your work function if people need to be socially isolated? The current guidelines are if someone is diagnosed with the virus then anyone who has been in contact with them needs to be isolated for 14 days (may be reduced to 5-7 days). Contact is defined as 15 minutes of face to face time or 2 hours together in a room. How would your work cope with this? How can the services your work use or your works clients cope with this? How can the services you use personally cope with this? Carey Grammar just shut down their entire school. Be prepared for entire workplaces to shut down. Be prepared for all schools to shut down. The chance of this happening is much greater than 50%.*

Most likely we will get to the point where quarantining entire workplaces is not effective but social isolation policies will carry through. you need to work out what will be the possible effects on your life.

Anyway, starting to ramble and a lot of this has be covered in the thread already but these are real possible scenarios that you need to be prepared for. If you are conservative enough to insure your house and car, you should put some effort into preparing for possible outcomes of the virus to mitigate the effects on your life.

No-one knows what will happen and it definitely may blow over but the things i have talked about above are far from the worst case scenario. It pays to be prepared and at least think these things through.

http://www.elitedt.com.au/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=815337

 

[X_box_X]

To reiterate the very sobering figures we had from our ID specialist about how the coronavirus outbreak will impact the hospitals in Melbourne:

With no immunity to this new virus and with the R-value of 2.5 (each infected person will infect another 2.5 people), it will need 70% of the population to be immune to the virus before the virus will die down - 70% “herd immunity “ before the virus doesn’t have enough non-immune people to infect so that the number of people infected will drop to near zero.*

Compare that to more infectious/ contagious diseases like measles with an R-value of 10.......... you need 95% herd immunity to stop measles from spreading.

Until you get 70% immunity in a population, coronavirus will continue to spread in that population....... with no vaccine, the only way for 70% of the population to become immune is if 70% of the population become infected....

Of those infected 80% minimal or no symptoms. 20% more severe symptoms and 1-2% mortality.

The ID specialist said that if you let coronavirus spread / “let it rip” thru the population without any attempt to slow the rate of infection, you’ll have very high numbers of infection very soon (a few months) and it will die down in about six months........once 70% of population infected, recovered and immune....*

The problem with that is that a large university hospital in melbourne would likely have 100 new patients every day turning up for a month or two that needed an ICU bed ....... this would completely swamp the available hospital and ICU beds....... we’d see a situation like Wuhan where people were dying in the ED waiting rooms and on the streets as there were not enough hospital beds for the number of critically sick people.......

So the strategy is to SLOW the spread of the virus so you get a lower number of people infected and unwell at any given point in time but the period of time the virus is infects more people is much longer........ same area under the curve in terms of total number of people infected as we still need to get to that 70% of population infected and now immune before the virus dies away........ just the numbers are smaller at any given time and spread over a longer period of time........ that way the hospital resources / beds may be better able to cope with the number of patients needing beds/Icu at any given point in time.........That is the current strategy......

Of course the deaths are skewed to the over 70’s (mortality 10%) and those with chronic diseases.......


The numbers are very sobering........ Until I heard this ID specialist talk on the topic, I must admit I had completely underestimated the magnitude of the problem......

 

[X_box_X]

Australia had its 100th case recorded yesterday, March 10. With a 9.9% compounding contagion rate, we would get to the following number of cases:
March 17: 194
March 24: 375
March 31: 726

April 30: 12,328
May 31: 230,044
June 30: 3,906,084

As we're going into what we know to be flu season, we need to reduce that rate, and it appears we're not entirely sure how to do it. If 5% of those infected people need hospital beds, that's over 150,000 beds required, which is more than we have... and most of them are already in use. And that's a lot of people desperately in need of ICU no less, who can't have it.

Long story short: It really is important that we turn it around, even though the big, big majority of us are going to be fine. And we're not sure how to do it yet, but so far, nothing has "worked".

 

[Sentinel]

To reiterate the very sobering figures we had from our ID specialist about how the coronavirus outbreak will impact the hospitals in Melbourne:

With no immunity to this new virus and with the R-value of 2.5 (each infected person will infect another 2.5 people), it will need 70% of the population to be immune to the virus before the virus will die down - 70% “herd immunity “ before the virus doesn’t have enough non-immune people to infect so that the number of people infected will drop to near zero.*

Compare that to more infectious/ contagious diseases like measles with an R-value of 10.......... you need 95% herd immunity to stop measles from spreading.

Until you get 70% immunity in a population, coronavirus will continue to spread in that population....... with no vaccine, the only way for 70% of the population to become immune is if 70% of the population become infected....

Of those infected 80% minimal or no symptoms. 20% more severe symptoms and 1-2% mortality.

The ID specialist said that if you let coronavirus spread / “let it rip” thru the population without any attempt to slow the rate of infection, you’ll have very high numbers of infection very soon (a few months) and it will die down in about six months........once 70% of population infected, recovered and immune....*

The problem with that is that a large university hospital in melbourne would likely have 100 new patients every day turning up for a month or two that needed an ICU bed ....... this would completely swamp the available hospital and ICU beds....... we’d see a situation like Wuhan where people were dying in the ED waiting rooms and on the streets as there were not enough hospital beds for the number of critically sick people.......

So the strategy is to SLOW the spread of the virus so you get a lower number of people infected and unwell at any given point in time but the period of time the virus is infects more people is much longer........ same area under the curve in terms of total number of people infected as we still need to get to that 70% of population infected and now immune before the virus dies away........ just the numbers are smaller at any given time and spread over a longer period of time........ that way the hospital resources / beds may be better able to cope with the number of patients needing beds/Icu at any given point in time.........That is the current strategy......

Of course the deaths are skewed to the over 70’s (mortality 10%) and those with chronic diseases.......


The numbers are very sobering........ Until I heard this ID specialist talk on the topic, I must admit I had completely underestimated the magnitude of the problem......

It just goes to show how completely irresponsible, bordering on criminally negligent, the Victorian state government is being by allowing, at this stage, for the F1 to go ahead. Every extra person who gets infected at the event will give it to on average 2-3 others (or whatever the real R0 is said to be), who in turn will do the same.

We should be doing everything we can to slow this (within reason). There's just no way there'll be crowds at the football next week either, if the games are even played.

Meanwhile the British government allows the Cheltenham races to go ahead, attracting 60,000+. It's utter madness that will only look much worse in hindsight. If only there were a way to measure the additional lives which will likely be lost as a result.

 

[dogwatch]

Prime Minister Scott Morrison proudly announced today that he'd be going to the football this weekend (well NRL is not really football but we'll let that one pass for now) and he urged others to go too, "unless of course you're not feeling well".

Nice to know we're in the safe hands of people who understand the problem and are behaving accordingly.

As Jane Halton (former head of Australian Dept of Health) said, we have a very short window of opportunity to slow the growth of the disease in Australia.

 

[bresker]

Our prime minister looks almost as daft as Trump at this stage. Good effort matey.

You can get flu & coronovirus at the same time. I spent many weeks in the ICU ward at the Royal Childrens in Melbourne in 2017 with a very ill child. That was a bad flu season & the staff were already struggling. (Yes I’m aware the virus doesn’t affect kids - but I’m guessing other ICUs were similarly affected.)

If we have a new vicious strain of flu AND coronovirus the hospitals and heart wards won’t cope. An ICU ward isn’t that big. Many experienced nurses work in ICU and are more likely to have kids, who won’t be at school and are reservoirs of disease. Try getting active 6 year olds to wash their hands or stop touching each other .

I won’t be going to the footy next week :-(

 

[Fossie 32]

3AW reckon the Prix has been cancelled!

Edit....... now they're saying it's on - 830am

 

[mcgleereturns]

I’ve been a bit of a “she’ll be right” person over all this and yet I’m typing this at home as my son heads off to hospital to get tested because his girlfriend works close to a woman who is unwell and awaiting results from testing after sharing drinks with a friend who is a confirmed case. I’m a teacher with no symptoms (with a son who has no symptoms with a girlfriend who might just have a cold who sits in a cubicle next to someone waiting for results because she shared a drink with someone who has Coronavirus) because I can’t risk the school community. It could result in a whole lot of nothing or a whole family watching 2016 replays for 2 weeks at home while 800 kids can’t go to school. It’s real 7 degrees of separation from Kevin Bacon and after the NBA thing, the AFL is gonna have to really think this through, even though my old school approach to life might think it’s overkill.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

I’ve been a bit of a “she’ll be right” person over all this and yet I’m typing this at home as my son heads off to hospital to get tested because his girlfriend works close to a woman who is unwell and awaiting results from testing after sharing drinks with a friend who is a confirmed case. I’m a teacher with no symptoms (with a son who has no symptoms with a girlfriend who might just have a cold who sits in a cubicle next to someone waiting for results because she shared a drink with someone who has Coronavirus) because I can’t risk the school community. It could result in a whole lot of nothing or a whole family watching 2016 replays for 2 weeks at home while 800 kids can’t go to school. It’s real 7 degrees of separation from Kevin Bacon and after the NBA thing, the AFL is gonna have to really think this through, even though my old school approach to life might think it’s overkill.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You’re clearly doing as you’re told and doing the right thing. However if everyone takes off two weeks every time a friend of a friend shared a banana with Tom Hanks surely the whole country will be effectively shut down for 6+ months.

My plan would be to lock all young, fit and healthy people in Marvel Stadium and infect every one of them. They sweat it out for 2 weeks and that’s them immune.

Might as well crack on with the footy season while we’re all in there too. The attendance figures would be fantastic!

 

[Pugz89]

3AW reckon the Prix has been cancelled!

Edit....... now they're saying it's on - 830am

All the media either jumping the gun or trying to pressure the FIA into cancelling it. They will ban crowds before the cancel it. WAYYY too much money in it to just cancel it without looking at other alternatives.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I do not think our cheer squad should start preparing a banner, if round 1 goes ahead without fans. They have just announced the Australia V NZ ODI will be played without fans today. I think the AFL are now deciding between postponing the season or playing the first round without fans with a review after each round. If an AFL player tests positive then we will be doing an NBA.

 

[Yesterday Dog]

Anyone else just fall sick with mild flu symptoms?

 

[weltschmerz]

 

[In Repair]

Working within a health service in victoria I can say that there is a lot of concern. Hand sanitizer, p2 and p1 masks stocks are becoming depleted increasing the concern that this protective equipment will not be available at the peak of the virus in a couple of months.
The time taken to decontaminate equipment, staff and other tools utilised in helping the patients that are critically unwell will cause mass delays in hospital responses to this illness. These are worrying times, i am concerned for my parents, my uncles family friends and neighbours who all have the risk factors increasing a likelihood of a suboptimal outcome.

 

[mambavino]

Mikel Arteta, Arsenal Manager has tested positive. What's happening in European football right now is really illustrating why the AFL shouldn't muck around, and just suspend the season for the time being.

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

Top story on Apple News:

‘How to prepare and stock up for the coronavirus pandemic’

‘Stocking up on pain and fever relievers, prescription drugs, electrolytes and food are the most prudent ways to prepare for the coronavirus pandemic, health officials say.’

How irresponsible is this. Surely the media have a duty to not instigate panic buying.

 

[stefoid]

At least if the season is cancelled it will give English another year to keep developing the thickness of his neck

new nickname 'the Cardassian'

 

[Sentinel]

Working within a health service in victoria I can say that there is a lot of concern. Hand sanitizer, p2 and p1 masks stocks are becoming depleted increasing the concern that this protective equipment will not be available at the peak of the virus in a couple of months.
The time taken to decontaminate equipment, staff and other tools utilised in helping the patients that are critically unwell will cause mass delays in hospital responses to this illness. These are worrying times, i am concerned for my parents, my uncles family friends and neighbours who all have the risk factors increasing a likelihood of a suboptimal outcome.

Yeah the lack of ventilators is incredibly concerning. Already there aren't enough and the time taken to thoroughly clean and disinfect between each patient only adds to the burden.

 

[ossie_21]

NBA suspended, MLB season start postponed, most euro top flight football postponed with the premier league holding an emergency meeting in about 10hrs time. AFL & NRL likely to be postponed, F1 has been cancelled, cricket apparently going to continue without fans but surely will also get called off.

Never in my lifetime would I have thought all this would happen.

 

[mambavino]

Top story on Apple News:

‘How to prepare and stock up for the coronavirus pandemic’

‘Stocking up on pain and fever relievers, prescription drugs, electrolytes and food are the most prudent ways to prepare for the coronavirus pandemic, health officials say.’

How irresponsible is this. Surely the media have a duty to not instigate panic buying.

I work just up the street from a Costco, and you should see the traffic jam heading in there at the moment. These kinds of articles lead directly to panic buying.