News Coronavirus Thread

[Pykie]

0.73% of tested cases. A slight rise.

And irrelevant.

Especially seeing as based on comments a few days ago by the chief medical officer, GP's were strongly directed to make sure they adhered to the correct symptoms before wasting test kits.

Positive tests / TOTAL tests is completely irrelevant if GP's are misdiagnosing potential test cases.

 

[CURVE]

Do you know how quickly we could get to roughly 10% of the population infected without effective controls?

It appears you don't understand the concept of exponential growth. Left unchecked the best evidence tells us that Covid 19 infections double every 6 days. Given we are at circa 700 today, here is what that looks like:

18/03/20​	700
24/03/20​	1,400
30/03/20​	2,800
5/04/20​	5,600
11/04/20​	11,200
17/04/20​	22,400
23/04/20​	44,800
29/04/20​	89,600
5/05/20​	179,200
11/05/20​	358,400
17/05/20​	716,800
23/05/20​	1,433,600
29/05/20​	2,867,200
4/06/20​	5,734,400
10/06/20​	11,468,800
16/06/20​	22,937,600

​

I understand, I just don't see it happening. What you have attached isn't best evidence, it's worst case scenario BS, but to date this Virus is spreading with all the haste of a drunken Ant.

Because Morrison and the Federal Government were seen as weak and indecisive during the early stages of the Bushfire crisis they are over compensating now.

Is the virus concerning? Yes it is.

Should I be following all the advice provided by Medical Community and Federal Government? Yes I should.

But what I'm seeing and hearing from both is disproportionate to what I am witnessing on the streets.

 

[ferball]

And irrelevant.

Especially seeing as based on comments a few days ago by the chief medical officer, GP's were strongly directed to make sure they adhered to the correct symptoms before wasting test kits.

Positive tests / TOTAL tests is completely irrelevant if GP's and are misdiagnosing potential test cases.

From what I've heard there is a lot of testing happening, however it could in the wrong areas.

 

[Del191229]

But what I'm seeing and hearing from both is disproportionate to what I am witnessing on the streets.

If I don't sees with me own peepers, ain't no happenin!

 

[giantroo]

0.73% of tested cases. A slight rise.

This could be a lot higher as people are being turned away if they don't meet the criteria.

 

[ferball]

View attachment 842527

So small differences in the slope of our curve now may make bigger differences (lower case numbers for us) now and over the next few weeks? It's hard to tell from that graph if there are small differences.

 

[krakouers]

Thanks man. I'm fine, just unsure how to approach it with work if i can't get a test. I'd rather not take the chance of infecting peeps but would like some certainty. I never get anything more than a sniffle, never had the flu, so don't know how sick i will get if i do have it.

14 day lock down on a hunch is f’ed.

The hoarding and panic buying has been a disgrace and something we should be ashamed of.

Being a sole carer for an 85 year old and being immunocompromised myself, something as simple as having hand sanitiser becomes very important at times like now.

She's got a rasping cough this morning. The glands are up in my throat. GP appointment via phone this arvo.

Fair to say I'm as worried as fu**.

Hope you guys are doing better today

 

[ferball]

Do you know how quickly we could get to roughly 10% of the population infected without effective controls?

It appears you don't understand the concept of exponential growth. Left unchecked the best evidence tells us that Covid 19 infections double every 6 days. Given we are at circa 700 today, here is what that looks like:

18/03/20​	700
24/03/20​	1,400
30/03/20​	2,800
5/04/20​	5,600
11/04/20​	11,200
17/04/20​	22,400
23/04/20​	44,800
29/04/20​	89,600
5/05/20​	179,200
11/05/20​	358,400
17/05/20​	716,800
23/05/20​	1,433,600
29/05/20​	2,867,200
4/06/20​	5,734,400
10/06/20​	11,468,800
16/06/20​	22,937,600

​

Do you think it's "left unchecked" at the moment?

Australia seems to be taking this more seriously than people in Europe did, but it's hard to tell at the moment.

 

[Pykie]

So small differences in the slope of our curve now may make bigger differences (lower case numbers for us) now and over the next few weeks? It's hard to tell from that graph if there are small differences.

That was from 3 days ago.


In which time we've registered multiple 25% days, some of the highest increases so far.

I think the basic gist of the graph, is that we are basically trending at the same rate.

Here's a few more:

 

[krakouers]

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision - March 2020 | Media Releases

The coronavirus is first and foremost a public health issue, but it is also having a very major impact on the economy and the financial system.

www.rba.gov.au

1. A reduction in the cash rate target to 0.25 per cent.
   The Board will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band.
2. A target for the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of around 0.25 per cent.
   This will be achieved through purchases of Government bonds in the secondary market. Purchases of Government bonds and semi-government securities across the yield curve will be conducted to help achieve this target as well as to address market dislocations. These purchases will commence tomorrow. The Bank will work closely with the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) and state government borrowing authorities to ensure the efficacy of its actions. Further details about the implementation of this are provided in the accompanying notice.
3. A term funding facility for the banking system, with particular support for credit to small and medium-sized businesses.
   The Reserve Bank will provide a three-year funding facility to authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) at a fixed rate of 0.25 per cent. ADIs will be able to obtain initial funding of up to 3 per cent of their existing outstanding credit. They will have access to additional funding if they increase lending to business, especially to small and medium-sized businesses. This facility is for at least $90 billion. Further details are available in the accompanying notice.
   The Australian Government has also developed a complementary program of support for the non-bank financial sector, small lenders and the securitisation market, which will be implemented by the AOFM.
4. Exchange settlement balances at the Reserve Bank will be remunerated at 10 basis points, rather than zero as would have been the case under the previous arrangements.
   This will mitigate the cost to the banking system associated with the large increase in banks' settlement balances at the Reserve Bank that will occur following these policy actions.

 

[Pykie]

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision - March 2020 | Media Releases

The coronavirus is first and foremost a public health issue, but it is also having a very major impact on the economy and the financial system.

www.rba.gov.au

1. A reduction in the cash rate target to 0.25 per cent.
   The Board will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band.
2. A target for the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of around 0.25 per cent.
   This will be achieved through purchases of Government bonds in the secondary market. Purchases of Government bonds and semi-government securities across the yield curve will be conducted to help achieve this target as well as to address market dislocations. These purchases will commence tomorrow. The Bank will work closely with the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) and state government borrowing authorities to ensure the efficacy of its actions. Further details about the implementation of this are provided in the accompanying notice.
3. A term funding facility for the banking system, with particular support for credit to small and medium-sized businesses.
   The Reserve Bank will provide a three-year funding facility to authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) at a fixed rate of 0.25 per cent. ADIs will be able to obtain initial funding of up to 3 per cent of their existing outstanding credit. They will have access to additional funding if they increase lending to business, especially to small and medium-sized businesses. This facility is for at least $90 billion. Further details are available in the accompanying notice.
   The Australian Government has also developed a complementary program of support for the non-bank financial sector, small lenders and the securitisation market, which will be implemented by the AOFM.
4. Exchange settlement balances at the Reserve Bank will be remunerated at 10 basis points, rather than zero as would have been the case under the previous arrangements.
   This will mitigate the cost to the banking system associated with the large increase in banks' settlement balances at the Reserve Bank that will occur following these policy actions.

The markets dropped a further 1% since the release.

 

[DesertRoo]

As Italy quarantines over coronavirus, misleading reports of swans and dolphins in Venice canals go viral

“Nature just hit the reset button” is how one person put it–but while the water in the Venetian canals is clearer, reports of wildlife returning are more fever dream than reali…

thehill.com

In all the doom and gloom, dolphins have been spotted swimming the Venice canals.

 

[krakouers]

As Italy quarantines over coronavirus, misleading reports of swans and dolphins in Venice canals go viral

“Nature just hit the reset button” is how one person put it–but while the water in the Venetian canals is clearer, reports of wildlife returning are more fever dream than reali…

thehill.com

In all the doom and gloom, dolphins have been spotted Venice canals.

Couldn't believe how clear the water looked

 

[krakouers]

Warney's company doing its bit:

 

[giantroo]

 

[Pykie]

 

[GarnerSmash]

Hope you guys are doing better today

Thanks mate.

Yep, all good. Doc gave us the all clear, just seasonal bug for my partner, and i'm perfectly fine now.

 

[GarnerSmash]

The markets dropped a further 1% since the release.

And falling.

Currently at 4779 ,its lowest since January 2013. We have gone from 7121 in Jan. If we dip below 4000, it will be for the first time since the GFC.

 

[Horizons_00]

 

[Val Keating]

Warney's company doing its bit:

Ok I can forgive the hair hat now

 

[giantroo]

All international flights from non resident Australians have been banned from 9pm Friday Night.

 

[Snake_Baker]

And irrelevant.

..........according to you.

If people want irrelevant hysteria then they are free to take in your bullshit, but don't even begin to think you can school me on this.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

All international flights from non resident Australians have been banned from 9pm Friday Night.

Inbound?

 

[Snake_Baker]

There is an influenza A epidemic apparently.

Yes, I believe I have contacted it, and am just getting over it.

 

[Snake_Baker]

From what I've heard there is a lot of testing happening, however it could in the wrong areas.

..............and a negative is a negative.

It IS a valuable statistic.