Discussion Coronavirus

[Mowman]

Cuts grass, cuts meat, does it all

is a Strange little man
Worth $250 mill though

 

[Diehard Saint]

I'm not comparing a life to money. I am saying if the economy suffers it is because small business have to close and in doing so the owners of those businesses are going to really struggle to the point that I can see suicide rates in this country rise dramatically. I don't agree that we need to take drastic measures like Italy. It will do more harm than good IMO. I think we need to think about everyone that this will affect, just because it's not affecting some people in our community doesn't mean it will never affect them.

Finding the right balance is key. I work in an office and in a few weeks I've been told that we will be all working from home. But my company can afford that. Jims Butcher from down the road probably can't. That's my concern.

My last word... I never ever said we should do what is happening in Italy right now.
On the contrary I said the more we can do now to avoid that type of scenario the better and as far as I’m concerned part of that is making the correct choices regarding social engagement.
Anyway I’ve probably bored everyone witless so I won’t post again on it.

 

[Pardon me]

Hey guys, just got home after an evening at the bowls club. Some of the older gen are really struggling with getting their hands on stuff from the supermarkets so a few of us have banded together to try and help out as many as we can. Might be worth a shot knocking on your neighbors doors and asking how they’re going. They’re the most at risk group and with some of the mentality around hoarding going on our locals need some support. Yours might too.
Just a thought

 

[stfan]

Well I didn’t practice social distancing yesterday and neither did about 100 others at the Rosstown. That’s the problem. If someone had it yesterday then problem about 5 or so would have today and if those 5 see people today all of a sudden 30 could have it. Then it goes on and on. There is no way the numbers are even close to right. It would hundreds if not thousands more who have cv in Australia

Why? Please explain your logic.

So far any time someone gets a positive test there is aggressive contact tracing of anyone they may have come into contact with, and they then go into self-isolation. This is basically what has been done in Singapore with great success. This is why our active cases are still very low.

Fortunately for you there are not that many CV 19 cases in Australia yet. If there was then at you age the prognosis may be grim.

Also no dim sims and beer in the ICU and so you would be extra miserable.

 

[stfan]

I'm not comparing a life to money. I am saying if the economy suffers it is because small business have to close and in doing so the owners of those businesses are going to really struggle to the point that I can see suicide rates in this country rise dramatically. I don't agree that we need to take drastic measures like Italy. It will do more harm than good IMO. I think we need to think about everyone that this will affect, just because it's not affecting some people in our community doesn't mean it will never affect them.

Finding the right balance is key. I work in an office and in a few weeks I've been told that we will be all working from home. But my company can afford that. Jims Butcher from down the road probably can't. That's my concern.

George if we do the right things now, then no we will not have to take drastic measure like Italy. Italy has had it since December and let it snowlball.

If we fail to act appropriately now, then yes we will have to take drastic measures like Italy.

We only have a small number of active cases and we need to keep it that way. Oh and yes CV19 is destroying my business at present.


I am sharing below a post by:


Dan Suan
March 13 at 8:37 PM

Hi a few people asked me where Australia is at the moment with Covid-19. We reached our 100th case on Tuesday the 10th of March (3 days ago, x-axis), and we now have 199 confirmed cases (y-axis) - I've plotted this point with a red dot. We are testing really well, so it is a fairly accurate number, waaayyy more accurate than the USA which is on the precipice of a total disaster (separate story, I'm so upset).

It's at a very early part of the curve, but you can see we are doing really well compared to other industrialised nations (we want to be as close to the Japanese, Singaporean and Hong Kong curves as possible).

The next two weeks is absolutely critical to the direction of this curve. Total social isolation, complete interpersonal distancing, combined with massively increased testing (which we have just built capacity for this week in our labs) will flatten this curve and save countless Australian lives.

We can do this with no vaccine and no effective antivirals. Each individual simply has to make it their personal responsibility to have minimal contact with all other people. Cancel all unnecessary things. I am running my clinics by phone so patients don't have to come to hospital. We have a narrow window of opportunity to do this, this could not be more urgent. I hope you understand I would not say this if I was not absolutely sure of how critical this is. Please share with your family and friends. Sending lots of love, take care please


Dan Suan MBBS FRACP FRCPA PhD

Staff Specialist Immunologist, Westmead Hospital

Staff Specialist Immunopathologist, NSW Health Pathology

Research Officer, Immunogenomics Lab, Garvan Institute

 

[plugger66]

Why? Please explain your logic.

So far any time someone gets a positive test there is aggressive contact tracing of anyone they may have come into contact with, and they then go into self-isolation. This is basically what has been done in Singapore with great success. This is why our active cases are still very low.

Fortunately for you there are not that many CV 19 cases in Australia yet. If there was then at you age the prognosis may be grim.

Also no dim sims and beer in the ICU and so you would be extra miserable.

My logic is Peter brukner. Reckon he might have some idea no idea what my age has to do with it if you are healthy. The reason age matters is the older you are the more likely you have an illness. And my daughter would certainly bring in dimmies if I was in icu. Beer might be tougher

 

[gringo2011]

A mate works at the NGV, he just posted that they are shut until further notice. All footy training is off, all soccer, basketball etc. It's starting to feel like the services are going down a bit at a time. My daughter is in year12, I still wonder how that will work if they close. All the TAC cup kids draft chances potentially drop too. It's a weird time.

 

[stfan]

My logic is Peter brukner. Reckon he might have some idea no idea what my age has to do with it if you are healthy. The reason age matters is the older you are the more likely you have an illness. And my daughter would certainly bring in dimmies if I was in icu. Beer might be tougher

My daughter works in the ICU Respiratory Ward of a Major Hospital here in Melbourne. If you are there then neither your daughter nor dim sims will get in.

Agree that you have no idea though.

Also sounds like Peter is in drastic need of a refresher course if he is actually feeding you that rubbish.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

This quote has stuck with me today.

"Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate." - Michael Leavitt, health and human services secretary for President Bush.

We're 5 days from the footy starting and I could hardly care less. Difficult couple months coming up I think.

 

[plugger66]

My daughter works in the ICU Respiratory Ward of a Major Hospital here in Melbourne. If you are there then neither your daughter nor dim sims will get in.

Agree that you have no idea though.

So the point of the age thing was? No point obviously. I’m not planning on going to an icu soon so I think I will be fine for dimmies and beer. No comment on peter brukner either. Probably has you covered for knowledge on the subject.

 

[gringo2011]

So the point of the age thing was? No point obviously. I’m not planning on going to an icu soon so I think I will be fine for dimmies and beer. No comment on peter brukner either. Probably has you covered for knowledge on the subject.

Bruckner is a sports medicine specialist. Not an epidemiologist. My cousin works for the UN and has worked on Ebola and other potential pandemics and he doesn't feel like he's knowledgeable enough to give advice because he's not an expert despite working along side them. It be a little cautious about what he says .

 

[stfan]

So the point of the age thing was? No point obviously. I’m not planning on going to an icu soon so I think I will be fine for dimmies and beer. No comment on peter brukner either. Probably has you covered for knowledge on the subject.

I realise you like to act ignorant, but for the sake of others please realise that this is a serious topic.

The older you are the greater the risk.
The poorer your health then even more so.
As you age you body does not work as well. It's immune efficiency drops. The respiratory muscle strength decreases with age and much more so in men than in women. Plus there may be other problems.

 

[saintsrfreak]

So the point of the age thing was? No point obviously. I’m not planning on going to an icu soon so I think I will be fine for dimmies and beer. No comment on peter brukner either. Probably has you covered for knowledge on the subject.

Having health issues worsens the risk yeah, but even those without one are seemingly more at risk the older they are.

 

[plugger66]

Bruckner is a sports medicine specialist. Not an epidemiologist. My cousin works for the UN and has worked on Ebola and other potential pandemics and he doesn't feel like he's knowledgeable enough to give advice because he's not an expert despite working along side them. It be a little cautious about what he says .

I reckon he may just talk to the right people. Certainly better people than nearly all of us would. Anyway it’s logical because for some there aren’t even any symptoms or so slight they wouldn’t even see anyone.

 

[plugger66]

I realise you like to act ignorant, but for the sake of others please realise that this is a serious topic.

The older you are the greater the risk.
The poorer your health then even more so.
As you age you body does not work as well. It's immune efficiency drops. The respiratory muscle strength decreases with age and much more so in men than in women. Plus there may be other problems.

When have I suggested anything other than it being serious. I would suggest my age would have little to do with me being much sicker than a younger person. I would suggest I’m as fit as most 40 year olds. Anyway maybe you will be proven right I end up in icu. Then you tell me how right you were. It’s kinda weird though.

 

[plugger66]

Having health issues worsens the risk yeah, but even those without one are seemingly more at risk the older they are.

View attachment 840153

I’m not sure we can say that unless we know the health of those who died.

 

[PostmanBish]

I know that. People complaining about 500 is silly. It can spread at any number.

I'm going to offer up an apology, George, as I sounded far more argumentative than I intended in my earlier post. Partly it's because my employer is way ahead of the curve in terms of the advice being given to us as employees (and the corresponding rollout of business continuity plans), and I happen to be of the broad opinion that acting early with conviction is better than faffing about until you have to act reactively with draconian measures. I also believe the economic damage from acting early and decisively, will ultimately be lower than having a full-blown crisis with overflowing hospitals, and doctors forced to play God because there simply aren't enough ICU beds for those who need them.

The coming week is likely to see a substantial escalation in cases and deaths, so it remains to be seen how the actions and recommendations change before the first ball is bounced on Thursday night.

I definitely welcome the counter-arguments, and even if we have to agree to disagree, I think we're both expressing legitimate viewpoints and concerns based on our specific experiences. Debate is healthy

Most important thing for me is to see all the Saints fans come through this in one piece, so we can go for 60,000 members next year ...

Stay safe out there, all of you.

 

[plugger66]

You mean data like this:

Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities)
Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
Cardiovascular disease​	13.2%​	10.5%​
Diabetes​	9.2%​	7.3%​
Chronic respiratory disease​	8.0%​	6.3%​
Hypertension​	8.4%​	6.0%​
Cancer​	7.6%​	5.6%​
no pre-existing conditions​	​	0.9%​

And your point being? Maybe I missed the age part on this. Can’t see it though

 

[Monika72]

If you going to have no one fans attending games then GWS will feel right at home. The Afl just love them.

 

[triggering bro]

Copied from someone who works in ICU. Think bigger picture

I’m an intensive care specialist in a small city.

Coronavirus isn’t just like the flu, but it’s only really very dangerous to the elderly or the already unwell. Quite a lot of people in their 80s will die, but most of the rest of us will probably be okay.

If you’re in your 70s and you get Coronavirus, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 60s and you have a heart attack, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 50s and need bowel cancer surgery, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 40s and have a bad car accident, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 30s and have terrible pre-eclampsia as a complication of pregnancy, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 20s and have a bad reaction to a party drug, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

I have 7 beds equipped with life support machines. We have a plan to increase to about 25. Getting more isn’t a matter or more equipment or more money, that bit is easy. There are not enough skilled staff, even if we all work double shifts every day for six months (and we probably will).

If 50% of my city gets infected, that’s 75,000 people. If 5% of them need life support (which is the estimate), that’s 3750 people. For 25 beds.

And then I might not have a bed for you.

So it’s up to you to flatten the curve. Wash your hands. Stay home.

ScoMo #lockusdown

 

[Mowman]

Copied from someone who works in ICU. Think bigger picture

I’m an intensive care specialist in a small city.

Coronavirus isn’t just like the flu, but it’s only really very dangerous to the elderly or the already unwell. Quite a lot of people in their 80s will die, but most of the rest of us will probably be okay.

If you’re in your 70s and you get Coronavirus, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 60s and you have a heart attack, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 50s and need bowel cancer surgery, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 40s and have a bad car accident, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 30s and have terrible pre-eclampsia as a complication of pregnancy, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 20s and have a bad reaction to a party drug, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

I have 7 beds equipped with life support machines. We have a plan to increase to about 25. Getting more isn’t a matter or more equipment or more money, that bit is easy. There are not enough skilled staff, even if we all work double shifts every day for six months (and we probably will).

If 50% of my city gets infected, that’s 75,000 people. If 5% of them need life support (which is the estimate), that’s 3750 people. For 25 beds.

And then I might not have a bed for you.

So it’s up to you to flatten the curve. Wash your hands. Stay home.

ScoMo #lockusdown

Pretty simple
Great Post

 

[Yawkey way]

For those short of toilet paper or other necessities coles and Safeway are restocking overnight so if you turn up and wait in the queue at opening time you should come away with a six pack per person.

I’ve been told that coles in Elsternwick and Brighton were stampedes so maybe try Safeway where at least in the St Kilda store people lined up and staff handed out packs in an orderly fashion. Shelves were pretty bare including the meat department but my local butchers was business as usual.

Anyway if you’re doing ok then leave something for those who aren’t, check on your older relatives and don’t be too harsh on others. What may last you a couple of weeks could be three days worth to a family of six. I haven’t been out hobbling around I’ve sent my kids out to do the leg work.

 

[stfan]

Copied from someone who works in ICU. Think bigger picture

I’m an intensive care specialist in a small city.

Coronavirus isn’t just like the flu, but it’s only really very dangerous to the elderly or the already unwell. Quite a lot of people in their 80s will die, but most of the rest of us will probably be okay.

If you’re in your 70s and you get Coronavirus, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 60s and you have a heart attack, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 50s and need bowel cancer surgery, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 40s and have a bad car accident, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 30s and have terrible pre-eclampsia as a complication of pregnancy, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 20s and have a bad reaction to a party drug, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

I have 7 beds equipped with life support machines. We have a plan to increase to about 25. Getting more isn’t a matter or more equipment or more money, that bit is easy. There are not enough skilled staff, even if we all work double shifts every day for six months (and we probably will).

If 50% of my city gets infected, that’s 75,000 people. If 5% of them need life support (which is the estimate), that’s 3750 people. For 25 beds.

And then I might not have a bed for you.

So it’s up to you to flatten the curve. Wash your hands. Stay home.

ScoMo #lockusdown

Which is the key point.
If cases are kept low, everyone gets good treatment.
As cases mount, more and more do not.
20% required hospitalisation, 5% require ventilators
Many need oxygen and other treatments
All need skilled staff.
All of the above have limits.

If you are 40 now and are one of the small % of the 40 year olds that need treatment you will get quality care. If cases spiral then in a month you may not.

If you are 40 and catch CV19 and do not have adverse symptoms, then you may be personally ok, but if you visit your parents, older friend or someone else you may help kill them.

 

[stfan]

Anyway it’s logical because for some there aren’t even any symptoms or so slight they wouldn’t even see anyone.

Yes for most you are right.

If you are 40 and if you catch it then you have about a 1/200 chance of dying. Sounds like good odds to you? Personally I would not want to be the 1 in 200.

Your chance of being hospitalised and being just very ill is much higher.

 

[plugger66]

Yes for most you are right.

If you are 40 and if you catch it then you have about a 1/200 chance of dying. Sounds like good odds to you? Personally I would not want to be the 1 in 200.

Your chance of being hospitalised and being just very ill is much higher.

Pretty hard to get treated if you have no symptoms.