Cox Plate tips

[Pantsless]

Not revealing my secrets tiger!

 

[Lenny*]

Not revealing my secrets tiger!

ill give u $2 suckie suckie.

 

[harry_hawka]

Mate sounds like you've done a fair bit of analysis but can you educate me on how a horse who wins arguably two Australia's two premier 1600m Group 1's over the tough Randwick mile is an ideal 1400m horse?

Obviously he's a great miler also- the best in the country in fact. You get some great milers that build into races up to the mile, and then hit their straps from 1600-2000. Sunline was a great example of this, as was Grand Armee. In my opinion, Racing to Win is one of those milers that will be hitting his straps building up to the mile (say 1300-1600) and not going too strong thereafter. Of course, time will tell as he's untried past the 1600, but from what I've seen he has looked very comfortable in the races leading up to the mile, suggesting he's not going to be a great miler/stayer.

My point in the first post probably came across too simplistic- I did mean that, to me, Racing to Win is more of a 1400-1600 horse, rather than a 1600-2000. No doubts he's a brilliant 1600 metre horse either way!

 

[Deej]

what about honour in war? isn't he supposed to be one of USA's best turf horses?

 

[harry_hawka]

I had a look at him about a month ago Deej and his ratings were very low in comparison to other internationals that come out here. I forget exactly what the numbers were, but on the international ratings scale he was a mile behind Grey Swallow. That's obviously not the only indicator to his chances, but it does suggest he'll be battling in this first up.

 

[AAMI]

I heard Lisa Cropp interviewed yesterday morning on radio and she was very impressive. It was an interesting chat.

Then this morning, they interviewed her again and she sounded terrible - her speech was quite slurred. You have to wonder what impact the wasting to get down to 46kg has had on her and if that means her ability to ride a good race on Saturday will suffer.

 

[Angus1]

Well I agree with everything Harry Hawker says and after watching El Segundo's brilliant track work last week i put my bets on the following day with fixed odds of $3.30.
Maybe i got on too early but i was thinking that he could possibly start at evens so i had to make a choice.

The other horse I like for a place bet is Pompeii Ruler. I've been following him and the only time he has let me down was at Caulfied where he jarred up. Ran second in the Yallumba but that was a top run. Is in fine form and i think he has a great chance of a place. Very consistant performer.

 

[nicho_magic]

i've been convinced on el seguendo... think i'll be laying rtw, and i'll probably be on the swallow and el seguendo.

 

[The Dustbin]

i've been convinced on el seguendo... think i'll be laying rtw, and i'll probably be on the swallow and el seguendo.

I'll be doing the opposite. Laying Grey Swallow and El Segundo. Will be having a almighty crack at Racing To Win. Has more positives then negatives. In my opinion is the best horse in the race.

Time will tell. Good luck and good punting.

 

[Delidio]

I heard Lisa Cropp interviewed yesterday morning on radio and she was very impressive. It was an interesting chat.

Then this morning, they interviewed her again and she sounded terrible - her speech was quite slurred. You have to wonder what impact the wasting to get down to 46kg has had on her and if that means her ability to ride a good race on Saturday will suffer.

apparently cropp fainted at a meeting yesterday as a result of the weight loss shes aiming at but is still on track for the miss finland

 

[Rumbo]

I'll be backing LOTM at 13's on sportsbet.
Watched him go through his paces at Seymour on Sunday & he is wound up
for this.(as they all should be)
My line of thinking is he'll handle the track the best.
Don't be supprised if Miss Finland tries to lead all the way with her lightweight.
She won't get any of my money. I don't mind RTW or EL but I think they may have problems.RTW mighten handle the track & EL might be something amiss, because he really didn't have that sprint that he has last run.
They may prove me wrong but I'll be on the Lad.
Happy punting.
Cheers
Rumbo

 

[Delidio]

rtw at 5.50 to win and 5.10 to place at the moment

 

[HeLMie]

rtw at 5.50 to win and 5.10 to place at the moment

FFS, this is not a bookmakers quote, it is from the TAB. this will change approximately 9,495,364 times before the start of the race. Please do not quote it.

 

[Delidio]

FFS, this is not a bookmakers quote, it is from the TAB. this will change approximately 9,495,364 times before the start of the race. Please do not quote it.

easy to ignore if you dont like it. just thought it was interesting

 

[hawkeyeqld]

IMO Racing To Win is the top rater but I don't back $3.50 favourites.
If you are keen on RTW though I'd take the $3.50 now, I expect a flood of money to come for it
starting tomorrow morning and it'll start under $3.00.

For value I'll definitely be investing E/W on Pompeii Ruler.. I believe it will go very, very close in this, and a decent quinella with Racing To Win. Pompeii has won me a stack over it's last 4-5 runs, no reason to get off now.

Backup quinellas on Pompeii Ruler too boxing it with:
Casual Pass
Fields Of Omagh
Lad Of The Manor.

Might work a few tri's around these too.

El Segundo and Miss Finland are layers IMO.

Go Pompeii

Good luck

 

[HeLMie]

RTW - No one wants him yet he is now the fav for the race. Seems strange.

Go RTW

 

[Pres]

RTW - No one wants him yet he is now the fav for the race. Seems strange.

Go RTW

Amazing isn't it? This time of year people seem deperate to ignore the obvious and overanalyse these races as if they were reviewing an annual report or something.

What more could this horse have done to ensure it is the top rater or at worst equal top rater with El Segundo?

It was the same last year when everyone was potting Makybe in the Cup after a Cox Plate triumph.

 

[sethlad]

Disagree with the MD comparison.Only slight doubt was the weight.

RTW is untried past 1600m & anti-clockwise.
His form is fantastic but these are genuine unknowns.
He's a star but $3.50 with these queries?

Spring punters always want $10+ winners.

seth

 

[X_box_X]

I've got Aqua at $10 each way, odds of $26 and $6.55. Not sure how it will run at Mooney Valley, but two seconds in its past two races is very good form. I expect it to be level with Apache at the turn.

 

[eastaugh36]

I like Pompeii Ruler. How many times do you see all the talk about a couple of horses in the leadup to the race and then there's an upset?
His Craiglee and Yalumba runs should have him shorter in the market. His poor run in the Underwood is responsible for the odds but he jarred up that day.
There's word of a damp track and he has a win in the wet.
Remember they chose the Cox Plate over the Caulfield Cup early on and IMO Moody will have him spot on for this today.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

I like Pompeii Ruler. How many times do you see all the talk about a couple of horses in the leadup to the race and then there's an upset?
His Craiglee and Yalumba runs should have him shorter in the market. His poor run in the Underwood is responsible for the odds but he jarred up that day.
There's word of a damp track and he has a win in the wet.
Remember they chose the Cox Plate over the Caulfield Cup early on and IMO Moody will have him spot on for this today.

Careful there mate they only got 3 mills (pizzed down where I am - luck it missed MV) track should be perfect.

Im sticking with El already have a bit riding on him but will back him again. The barrier is my greatest concern he will get back, but often they tend to go a bit early in this race, so he should get last shot at them.

I will be backing:
Zipping in the Cup - not a strong race & just looks a weights special
Cargo Cult - ran 2nd to Niconero in this last year. Niconero isn't a big horse & the weight worries me a little. Expect them to fight it out.
Marju Snip- back to mares & has finally drawn a barrier. Excuses in it's last 2 races, I just think todays is its day.

Good luck all

 

[go fullta]

-el segundo will win
-lad of the manor, fields of omagh and grey swallow will fight out the placings.
-don raphael e.w in the cathy pacific
-white diamonds e.w
-valkryie diva should win

 

[- PC -]

If you think it is going to be hard to beat then back it. Don't just back something else because it is better odds but a lesser chance of winning.

I dont understand the mentality either. Fair enough leave your money in your pocket if you think the short price will win...but to back another horse just because it is paying more , even though you know another horse has better form ...just crazy

Guy at work is a Long Odds man... but he cant help himself...he has a bet in a race and then comes back and says '' i knew SPF would win but you know''

 

[JuddyisGod]

Just found a $30 gift card for the TAB in my room that my uncle gave me for xmas '04, i threw it on Casual Pass $5 for the win $25 for the place. Pretty much a free bet so doesn't really worry me either way.

 

[Dingster]

Zipping in the Cup - not a strong race & just looks a weights special

Great ride by Boss. Hope you had the house on it Bobby.

I wasn't going to have a bet, but as the race got closer I just couldn't see anything beating it and ended up having a small go on it. (still have the ticket if anyone feels the need for verification )