Cox Plate True Odds

[starz]

The winning 8th was good and not conceding a loss on merit, it wasn't a fair contest. Zipping beat the winner in the turnbull coming from 1 length behind in the slower zone so this h2h remains 1-0 to Zipping on merit.

I'm happy with the bottom line calls i made here and the 100% strike rate & profit to back me up.

 

[the_fresh]

Firstly, it's not a $ to unit ratio, 1 unit could mean 10 cents or $100,000 you can interpret this how you want, the goal is profit, and profit was achieved today.

Secondly, all market assessors overpriced wonderful world who was third best run of the race at odds $40-$50 and can you show me the link where you rated Wonderful World in the placings please.

Why are you still here?

 

[Fadge]

The winning 8th was good and not conceding a loss on merit, it wasn't a fair contest. Zipping beat the winner in the turnbull coming from 1 length behind in the slower zone so this h2h remains 1-0 to Zipping on merit.

I'm happy with the bottom line calls i made here and the 100% strike rate & profit to back me up.

How difficult is it to run the fastest last 400 (which I assume it was the way you're spruiking him up) coming from last to finish a little worse than mid-field after all the other horses in the race had busted their gut putting themselves into a winning position and seeing the best horse on the day win?

If Zipping has come into $4.5 for the Melbourne Cup as you say that's great for the rest of us because that's way under the odds which means all the other chances will be overs. Just like the Haradasun situation yesterday (where he was way unders), it means we just have to go the right way from the other options.

 

[starz]

Why are you still here?

Hey?

 

[Fadge]

Firstly, it's not a $ to unit ratio, 1 unit could mean 10 cents or $100,000 you can interpret this how you want, the goal is profit, and profit was achieved today.

Secondly, all market assessors overpriced wonderful world who was third best run of the race at odds $40-$50 and can you show me the link where you rated Wonderful World in the placings please.

And I'm sure the punters who would have having $100,000 units yesterday would be taking any notice of your suggestions...

 

[starz]

How difficult is it to run the fastest last 400 (which I assume it was the way you're spruiking him up) coming from last to finish a little worse than mid-field after all the other horses in the race had busted their gut putting themselves into a winning position and seeing the best horse on the day win?

If Zipping has come into $4.5 for the Melbourne Cup as you say that's great for the rest of us because that's way under the odds which means all the other chances will be overs. Just like the Haradasun situation yesterday (where he was way unders), it means we just have to go the right way from the other options.

You're way off the mark on all counts.
I am not taking anything away from El Segundo, just putting across the facts which get lost.
I haven't assessed Zipping as a 4.50 chance to win the big one (yet) you will have to wait until next weekend for Melbourne Cup true odds.
Finally, Haradasun's odds were about right at $5 and $1.90 to place, he finished third and defeated the 1.90 place.

 

[sethlad]

The winning 8th was good

Just save us time Starz & give us the MC market for who'll run 8th again.
Im sure 8th is a new & exciting betting option for the books
Although with your uncanny ability to price $16 hopes at $2.8 & WFA B graders @ $4.5,who'd wanna take you on?

Perhaps they could have a market where you also have to give the excuse before the race as well.
Much more exciting than finding the winner & more suited to your abilities of reading form.

seth

 

[Fadge]

You're way off the mark on all counts.
I am not taking anything away from El Segundo, just putting across the facts which get lost.
I haven't assessed Zipping as a 4.50 chance to win the big one (yet) you will have to wait until next weekend for Melbourne Cup true odds.
Finally, Haradasun's odds were about right at $5 and $1.90 to place, he finished third and defeated the 1.90 place.

Apologies, I misread an earlier post that referred to Zipping and $4.5 fave and assumed the Cup mrakets were being referred to but they were your mickey mouse thoughts pre Cox Plate...

When I refer to odds I refer to those provided by knowledgeable and reputable betting agencies as opposed to your drivel. No doubt you'll install Zipping as $2.50 fave for the Cup.

As for Haradasun being the right odds I'd like to know how many of his supporters made money yesterday. Most would have backed him straight out or at best equal balance of win or place. I suggested he'd run another credible 3rd or 4th but unfortunately win/place odds rarely reflect accurately that horses are genuine chances for a place but little hope to win (and I did say that before the fact). I agree that $1.90 were fair odds for a place but between $7 and $10 was where he should have been for the win but obviously that's not how each-way betting works.

Finally, why is it that everyone on this post apart from you appears to be 'way off the mark on all counts'?

 

[the_fresh]

You're way off the mark on all counts.
I am not taking anything away from El Segundo, just putting across the facts which get lost.
I haven't assessed Zipping as a 4.50 chance to win the big one (yet) you will have to wait until next weekend for Melbourne Cup true odds.
Finally, Haradasun's odds were about right at $5 and $1.90 to place, he finished third and defeated the 1.90 place.

One fact that will never get lost is you're an idiot.

Its now been a to the day since Zippings last win, no horse has won a Melbourne cup in at least 25 years with that sort of form leading into a Melbourne cup.

Now, go away for good please you simpleton!

 

[starz]

Apologies, I misread an earlier post that referred to Zipping and $4.5 fave and assumed the Cup mrakets were being referred to but they were your mickey mouse thoughts pre Cox Plate...

This micky Mouse market assessment was able to get 3 of top 4 raters across the line in the first 4 including the winner. It also dismissed the turnbull Stakes form the Turnbull stakes.

When I refer to odds I refer to those provided by knowledgeable and reputable betting agencies as opposed to your drivel. No doubt you'll install Zipping as $2.50 fave for the Cup.

The true odds market will be up next weekend.

As for Haradasun being the right odds I'd like to know how many of his supporters made money yesterday. Most would have backed him straight out or at best equal balance of win or place. I suggested he'd run another credible 3rd or 4th but unfortunately win/place odds rarely reflect accurately that horses are genuine chances for a place but little hope to win (and I did say that before the fact). I agree that $1.90 were fair odds for a place but between $7 and $10 was where he should have been for the win but obviously that's not how each-way betting works.

Haradasun was rated in the top 4 and it was hard to see him finishing further back than that and that's exactly where he finished.

 

[Ricketts]

Why did you put Zipping as a $4.50 favourite when you knew he had a bad barrier?

 

[starz]

One fact that will never get lost is you're an idiot.

Its now been a to the day since Zippings last win, no horse has won a Melbourne cup in at least 25 years with that sort of form leading into a Melbourne cup.

Now, go away for good please you simpleton!

If a punter is just doing the form on paper then i agree it's hard to back a horse with nothing in the win column for 12 months, however he's really only had 3 runs.
1) MD Stakes good run first up
2) Turnbull - Finds inside rail & slow zone, reels in El Segundo going away.
3) Cox Plate - No chance after a poor draw and gave the inside barriers way too much start. As Fadge said he did run home well but second fastest closing sectional to El Segundo, however this is misleading as Zipping only ever got into space in the last 100m after being in a pocket behind a wall of 3 horses.

Anyway, you agreed to not post in the forum for 2 months after one of your top picks failed to beat home Zipping.

 

[haywood jablome]

If a punter is just doing the form on paper then i agree it's hard to back a horse with nothing in the win column for 12 months, however he's really only had 3 runs.
1) MD Stakes good run first up
2) Turnbull - Finds inside rail & slow zone, reels in El Segundo going away.
3) Cox Plate - No chance after a poor draw and gave the inside barriers way too much start. As Fadge said he did run home well but second fastest closing sectional to El Segundo, however this is misleading as Zipping only ever got into space in the last 100m after being in a pocket behind a wall of 3 horses.

Anyway, you agreed to not post in the forum for 2 months after one of your top picks failed to beat home Zipping.

 

[Ricketts]

3) Cox Plate - No chance after a poor draw

No chance yet you still marked him favourite and had some of your units on him.

 

[starz]

Why did you put Zipping as a $4.50 favourite when you knew he had a bad barrier?

Fair question, and i realised my mistake 10 yards after they came out of the gates where Marasco & Zippings races were over.
I was anticipating a sprint early to get position as they did in the Turnbull, it would have taken some energy away but there were no slow zones so i wasn't worried.

However the jockey just came out fairly which upon reflection was the wrong move. My only failing is that I can't foresee circumstances.

 

[haywood jablome]

Fair question, and i realised my mistake 10 yards after they came out of the gates where Marasco & Zippings races were over.
I was anticipating a sprint early to get position as they did in the Turnbull, it would have taken some energy away but there were no slow zones so i wasn't worried.

However the jockey just came out fairly which upon reflection was the wrong move. My only failing is that I can't foresee circumstances.

You would be a great politician starz... You believe your own shit.

 

[starz]

No chance yet you still marked him favourite and had some of your units on him.

The risk was always going to be early in the race, this didn't pan out as i hoped but at 30+ to win and $7+ for the top rated galloper in the race it's certainly a risk you take.

If he had a good barrier than the bet would have been much bigger of course and the question you would be asking is why didn't you have more on.

 

[The GOAT]

If a punter is just doing the form on paper then i agree it's hard to back a horse with nothing in the win column for 12 months, however he's really only had 3 runs.
1) MD Stakes good run first up
2) Turnbull - Finds inside rail & slow zone, reels in El Segundo going away.
3) Cox Plate - No chance after a poor draw and gave the inside barriers way too much start. As Fadge said he did run home well but second fastest closing sectional to El Segundo, however this is misleading as Zipping only ever got into space in the last 100m after being in a pocket behind a wall of 3 horses.

Anyway, you agreed to not post in the forum for 2 months after one of your top picks failed to beat home Zipping.

Interesting reading mate. Did Zipping really have the 2nd fastest last sectional? Where do you find that info?

 

[carltonblue]

haha starz stop kidding yourself

 

[starz]

Interesting reading mate. Did Zipping really have the 2nd fastest last sectional? Where do you find that info?

Yes and he usually does have the fastest closing sectional, both he and El Segundo are the fastest finishers in the land.
In his 25 race career he has only been passed twice and only once on merit.
In the Melbourne Cup after sprinting 400m from barrier 22 to get position and only 90% fit where the Japanese ran passed him.
The Turnbull doesn't count as he was on the inside rail in the slow zone and the two that run passed him were out wide.

 

[The GOAT]

Yes and he usually does have the fastest closing sectional, both he and El Segundo are the fastest finishers in the land, i get my sectionals from sportscolour.
In his 25 race career he has only been passed twice and only once on merit.
In the Melbourne Cup after sprinting 400m from barrier 22 to get position and only 90% fit where the Japanese ran passed him.
The Turnbull doesn't count as he was on the inside rail in the slow zone and the two that run passed him were out wide.

ok cheers thanks for the info

 

[sethlad]

The reason he can run 1 fast sectional is because he does no work early.
He's 1 dimensional,when he does work early he doesnt finish it off (M Cup last year).

Only the best horses can sustain 2 runs in a race.
WFA horses.

seth

 

[Fadge]

How difficult is it to run the fastest last 400 (which I assume it was the way you're spruiking him up) coming from last to finish a little worse than mid-field after all the other horses in the race had busted their gut putting themselves into a winning position and seeing the best horse on the day win?

As Fadge said he did run home well but second fastest closing sectional to El Segundo

I like the creative interpretation of my comments...

 

[tige19]

Zipping is a worthless pony, give him to the Melbourne Show.

Just like Activation was, he will be sold by Lloyd at the end of the spring.

 

[Yaaablett]

It is all fair and reasonable to have a favourite horse. I think we all agree on that. But, to have Zipping as the "true" 4.50 favourite for the Cox Plate is an absolute joke. It destroys any credibility that one might have. You dont deserve a bagging for the Wonderful World odds as most didn't give him a hope. But Zipping? I'm still shaking my head. I'm sure we'd all love to own one as good as him but he is a mile off the best wfa A graders. There is not one plausible argument to suggest that he is a chance in a race such as a Cox Plate. Feel free to have a go but please give us some evidence. I need a laugh.

I will come clean and say that I thought Miss Finland would win. She had a perfect run and just didn't/couldn't sprint. She had beaten all of her main rivals after giving them a start, she is a multiple group 1 winner and her Oaks win last year certainly stamped her a horse that can get a trip. I also thought that Hayes and connections desperately wanted this race and she would be peaking. I expected her to produce a very quick sectional between the 600 and 400. Dissapointing. I'm unsure of where she's at. She is racing like she has had enough. Could not win the Melbourne Cup and I cant believe they are considering giving her another run on Saturday the going to the cup. Ship her to NZ and a date with Zabeel.